Alaska's climate varies by region and season due to its vast expanse and geographical variation, from a temperate maritime climate along the southern coast to an Arctic climate in the far north. Four main factors influence these diverse climates: its northerly latitude crossing the Arctic Circle; its large elevation range, from sea level to the highest peak in the United States; regional variations in proximity to the ocean; and the seasonal distribution of sea ice along its western and northern boundaries. Annual average temperatures range from the mid-40s (°F) across the southern part of the state, where moderating maritime influences are strong, to less than 20°F north of the Brooks Range (Figure 1; 1991–2020 averages). The long-term reporting stations with the coldest annual average temperatures of less than 15°F are located along and near the Arctic Ocean north of 70°N latitude. The greatest seasonal changes in temperature occur in the state's interior, where summer maximum temperatures are in the upper 60s (F°) and winter minimums are 15° to 25°F below zero. The highest temperature ever recorded in Alaska was 100°F at Fort Yukon on June 27, 1915, and the lowest was −80°F at Prospect Creek on January 23, 1971—both in the interior of the state.
Map of the state of Alaska showing annual average temperatures for long-term reporting stations as described in the caption.
Legend values range from 15 degrees Fahrenheit or lower to 45 degrees or higher. Temperatures for the six stations are as follows: Juneau, in the southeast, 40 degrees; Anchorage, in the south-central part of the state, 38 degrees; Bethel, in the southwest, 31 degrees, Nome, in west-central Alaska, 28 degrees; Utqiaġvik, in the far north, 14 degrees, and Fairbanks, in the interior, 28 degrees.
Time series of observed and projected temperature change (in degrees Fahrenheit) for Alaska from 1901 to 2100 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from negative 8 to positive 28 degrees. Observed annual temperatures from 1925 to 2024 show variability and range from negative 4.0 to positive 6.3 degrees. By the end of the century, projected increases in temperature range from 1.8 to 11.4 degrees under the lower emissions pathway, from 5.2 to 15.6 degrees under the intermediate pathway, and from 10.6 to 24.0 degrees under the higher pathway.
Since 1925 (the beginning of reliable records), annual average temperatures in Alaska have increased by about 3°F (Figure 2). This is a larger increase than for the contiguous United States, which warmed about 2°F over that same period. Temperatures have been highly variable from year to year. It was moderately warm from the 1920s into the 1940s and much cooler from the late 1940s into the 1970s. The majority of the warming has occurred since the 1970s, with the most recent decade (2015–2024) being the warmest on record. There is considerable regional variability in the warming, with the greatest warming occurring in far northern regions (about 4°F) and the least warming (less than 2°F) occurring in southeastern Alaska.
The state's large, multidecadal variability in annual average temperature is caused in part by changes in hemispheric climate patterns. For example, a substantial increase in annual temperature occurred in the late 1970s and again during the 2010s, with temperatures being consistently high from 2014 to 2019 (2016 and 2019 were the second-warmest and warmest years on record, respectively). These periods of warming coincided with warm phases of a climate pattern known as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), when warm water is pulled northward along the Alaska coast, leading to higher-than-average winter temperatures. The PDO has been in a cold phase from 2020 to 2024, resulting in cooler conditions. Despite this, temperatures during the 2020s have remained above the long-term (1925–2024) average. Statewide annual average temperatures increased by about 4°F from the 1970s to the early 2020s, with much higher values in some locations. For example, in Utqiaġvik, annual temperatures increased by about 10°F from 1970 to 2024. Most of the warming has occurred in the winter and spring, with less warming in the summer and fall. Winter average temperatures have been increasing rapidly since the late 1960s and have mostly been near or above the long-term average since the late 1980s (Figure 3). Summer average temperatures also show a long-term increasing trend and have mostly been above average since the late 1980s (Figure 4a). The increase in summer average temperatures is primarily due to a large increase in summer minimum temperatures since the 1970s (Figure 4b).
Graph of the observed winter average temperature for Alaska from 1925–26 to 2023–24 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from negative 8 to positive 20 degrees Fahrenheit. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from negative 5.0 to positive 15.0 degrees. The 4-year value for the 1925–26 to 1928–29 period is below the long-term average of 5.0 degrees. Five-year values show variability and are all below average between 1930 and 1984 except for the 1939–40 to 1943–44 and 1959–60 to 1963–64 periods, but they are all above average since 1985 except for the 1994–95 to 1998–99 period. The 1964–65 to 1968–69 period has the lowest 5-year value at negative 0.1 degrees, and the 2014–15 to 2018–19 period has the highest at positive 11.0 degrees.
Two graphs of the observed (a) summer average and (b) summer minimum temperatures for Alaska from 1925 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Panel A: Summer Average Temperature
Y-axis values range from 46 to 58 degrees Fahrenheit. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 48.4 to 55.9 degrees. Five-year values also show variability and are mostly near or below the long-term average of 50.8 degrees between 1925 and 1984 but are all near or above average since 1985. The 1945 to 1949 period has the lowest 5-year value at 49.2 degrees, and the 2015 to 2019 period has the highest 5-year value at 52.9 degrees.
Panel B: Summer Minimum Temperature
Y-axis labels range from 38 to 48 degrees Fahrenheit. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 40.0 to 46.4 degrees. Five-year values also show variability and are all near or below the long-term average of 42.5 degrees between 1925 and 1984 but are all above average since 1985. The 1930 to 1934 period has the lowest 5-year value at 40.7 degrees, and the 2015 to 2019 and 2020 to 2024 periods have the highest values at 44.8 and 44.2 degrees, respectively.
The shift to higher temperatures in the 1970s can be seen in the number of extremely cold nights (Figure 5a), which has generally been near or below the long-term (1930–2024) average since the late 1970s, with the lowest 5-year averages recorded during the 2000–2004 and 2015–2019 periods. The number of warm days was generally higher during the early 1990s, early 2000s, and late 2010s but shows no clear long-term trend (Figure 5b). Winter temperatures of –30°F or lower occur in the interior and northern regions of Alaska but are rare along the Aleutian Islands, southern coast, and panhandle; however, some locations along the western and southern coasts also rarely experience warm temperatures due to the moderating effects of the cold Arctic and North Pacific waters. Similarly, locations within the Arctic Circle rarely experience temperatures above 80°F; however, Deadhorse reached 89ºF on August 6, 2024, the highest temperature on record in Alaska north of 70ºN. One indicator of Arctic warming is the change in the length of the growing season. In Fairbanks, the average first freeze is now two weeks later than it was pre-World War II. The last freeze in the spring has also shifted earlier, leading to a growing season that is about 32 days longer than in 1911, when recordkeeping began.
Two graphs of the observed annual number of (a) extremely cold nights and (b) warm days for Alaska from 1930 to 2024 as described in the text.
Panel A: Extremely Cold Nights
Y-axis values for extremely cold nights range from 0 to 32 nights. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 1.1 to 27.4 nights. Five-year values also show variability and are above the long-term average of 10.0 nights for the 1930 to 1934 period, below average between 1935 and 1944, and all above average between 1945 and 1974. Since 1975, 5-year values are all below average except for the 1990 to 1994 period. The 2000 to 2004 and 2015 to 2019 periods have the lowest 5-year values at 4.5 and 4.3 nights, respectively, and the 1930 to 1934 period has the highest at 16.5 nights.
Panel B: Warm Days
Y-axis values for warm days range from 0 to 12 days. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0.5 to about 10.9 days. Five-year values also show variability and are all below the long-term average of 3.6 days between 1930 and 1949 except for the 1935 to 1939 period, above average between 1950 and 1959, and all near or below average between 1960 and 1989 except for the 1975 to 1979 period. Since 1990, 5-year values are all above average except for the 2005 to 2009 and 2010 to 2014 periods. The 1980 to 1984 period has the lowest 5-year value at 2.1 days, and the 1990 to 1994, 2000 to 2004, and 2015 to 2019 periods have the highest at 5.0, 4.6, and 5.1 days, respectively.
Total annual precipitation varies greatly across Alaska. Coastal mountain ranges in the southeast receive more than 200 inches per year, while totals drop to 60 inches south of the Alaska Range, 12 inches in the interior, and less than 6 inches in the North Slope. The highest 24-hour rainfall total was 15.1 inches in October 1986 at Seward, in south-central Alaska. The highest 24-hour snowfall total was 78 inches on February 9, 1963, at the Mile 47 Camp station in the Chugach Mountains in southeastern Alaska. Statewide total annual precipitation has ranged from a low of 28.6 inches in 1950 to a high of 43.5 inches in 1928 (Figure 6a). Since the late 1980s, total annual precipitation in Alaska has generally been near or above average. There is considerable regional variability, however, as portions of the Aleutian Islands and southern Alaska have observed a long-term decrease in precipitation. Statewide summer precipitation has mostly been near or above average since the late 1990s, with the two highest 5-year averages recorded for the 2010–2014 and 2020–2024 periods (Figure 6b). As with annual and seasonal precipitation, the number of extreme precipitation events is highly variable and is both regionally and seasonally dependent. Daily precipitation totals over 1 inch rarely occur in the northernmost regions of Alaska; however, on July 26, 2022, Utqiaġvik recorded its rainiest day on record, with a total of 1.4 inches. Statewide, the number of 1-inch extreme precipitation events has generally been near or below average since the late 1960s, and the highest 5-year averages were recorded in the 1930s (Figure 7).
Two graphs of the observed total (a) annual and (b) summer precipitation for Alaska from 1925 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Panel A: Total Annual Precipitation
Y-axis values range from 26 to 43.5 inches. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 28.6 to 43.5 inches. Five-year values also show variability and are all near or above the long-term average of 37.1 inches between 1925 and 1949 except for the 1930 to 1934 period, but they are all below average between 1945 and 1984 except for the 1960 to 1964 period. Since 1985, 5-year values are all near or above average except for the 1995 to 1999 period. The 1950 to 1954 and 1970 to 1974 periods have the lowest 5-year values at 33.84 and 33.76, respectively, and the 1925 to 1929 and 2020 and 2024 periods have the highest at 39.97 and 39.95 inches, respectively.
Panel B: Total Summer Precipitation
Y-axis values for total summer precipitation range from 6 to 14 inches. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 6.5 to 13.2 inches. Five-year values also show variability and are below the long-term average of 10.2 inches for the 1925 to 1929 period, mostly near or above average between 1930 and 1964, and all below average between 1965 and 1994 except for the 1980 to 1984 period. Since 1995, all 5-year values are above average except for the 2000 to 2004 and 2005 to 2009 periods. The 1975 to 1979 period has the lowest 5-year value at 8.4 inches, and the 2010 to 2014 and 2020 to 2024 periods have the highest at 11.6 and 11.5 inches, respectively.
Graph of the observed annual number of 1-inch extreme precipitation events for Alaska from 1930 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from 6 to 20 events. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 6.5 to 18.0 events. Five-year values also show variability and are all near or above the long-term average of 11.9 events between 1930 and 1969 except for the 1955 to 1959 period, but they are all near or below average since 1970 except for the 2000 to 2004 period. The 1980 to 1984 and 1995 to 1999 periods have the lowest 5-year values at 9.2 and 8.8 events, respectively, and the 1930 to 1934 and 1935 to 1939 periods have the highest at 16.0 and 14.9 events, respectively.
Late-summer Arctic sea ice extent and thickness have decreased substantially over the last several decades, and the annual minimum ice extent has decreased by about one-third since the beginning of satellite monitoring in 1979. The 18 lowest minimum Arctic sea ice extents on record (measured in September each year) all occurred in the last 18 years (2007–2024), with the all-time lowest minimum recorded in in 2012 (Figure 8). Arctic sea ice plays a vital role in the climate of Alaska, the lives of its inhabitants, and the functionality of its ecosystems. Warming linked to ice loss influences atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns both within and beyond the Arctic region. Alaskans rely on sea ice for hunting and fishing and as a protective barrier against severe coastal storms. With the late-summer ice edge located farther north than it used to be, storms produce larger waves and cause more coastal erosion. A significant increase in the number of coastal erosion events has been observed, as the protective sea ice embankment is no longer present during the fall months. In response to the increased erosion, several coastal communities are seeking to relocate. Climate models project that Alaska's northern waters in late summer could be virtually ice-free (total sea ice extent of less than 390,000 square miles) before 2050.
Combined time series of March and September Arctic sea ice extent anomalies from 1979 to 2024 relative to the 1991 to 2010 average as described in the caption.
Y-axis labels range from negative 40 to positive 40 percent. Annual values show year-to-year variability: Anomaly values in March (maximum) sea ice extent (red dots) range from about positive 9 percent in 1979 to negative 5 percent in 2017. Anomaly values in September (minimum) sea ice extent (blue dots) range from about positive 33 percent in 1980 to negative 31 percent in 2012. March sea ice extent shows a gradual decline over the period of record, with values generally in the positive 2 to 6 percent range between 1979 and 2003, after which values begin falling into the negative range from about negative 1 to negative 5 percent. By contrast, September sea ice extent shows a steeper decline, with values ranging from about positive 33 to negative 1 percent between 1979 and 2006, after which all values fall into the negative range from about negative 5 to negative 31 percent.
Much of the Alaska Interior (between the Brooks and Alaska Ranges) is a zone of discontinuous permafrost (permafrost interspersed with areas of unfrozen ground), and the area north of the Brooks Range is continuous permafrost. Increasing temperatures cause permafrost thawing, with substantial repercussions for the ecology and infrastructure (e.g., damage to buildings, pipelines, roads, airports, and water supply and sewage systems from ground subsidence, or sinking), as well as an increase in greenhouse gas emissions emitted from the thawing permafrost into the atmosphere. As the climate continues to warm, snow in Alaska is melting earlier in the spring, lengthening the snow-free summer season.
Wildfires are a particular concern for the state. Drying of wetlands; increased frequency of warm, dry summers; and associated thunderstorms have led to a greater number of large fires in recent years. Wildfires in Alaska burned 26.1 million acres between 2005 and 2024—more acres burned than in any other 20-year period. The largest wildfire seasons (since 1955) were 2004 (10,500 square miles) and 2015 (8,000 square miles). In 2022, Alaska recorded its seventh-largest wildfire season, with 591 wildfires burning nearly 5,000 square miles. Although most fires occur in the boreal forest between the Alaska and Brooks mountain ranges, fire activity is expanding into new regions: In 2022, 1.2 million acres burned in southwest Alaska, more than double the total area burned in the region since the 1950s. The area burned by wildfires is expected to increase further under a warming climate.
Flooding from a variety of causes poses risks in Alaska. Atmospheric rivers—a phenomenon in which a narrow band of very moist air is transported from tropical latitudes of the Pacific Ocean to the West Coast—sometimes affect the state. In early December 2020 an atmospheric river brought as much as 15 inches of rain to southeastern Alaska, melting snowpack and leading to record flooding that destroyed homes and damaged roads and other infrastructure. The precipitation caused widespread avalanches and debris flows, leading to two fatalities in Haines. The summer of 2021 was the wettest on record in northwestern Alaska, and the sustained high-water levels of rivers dramatically increased permafrost thaw and bank erosion. Damage was especially great along the Noatak River, where erosion threatens water supply lines and other community infrastructure. On September 17, 2022, Typhoon Merbok—fueled by unusually warm waters in the north Pacific—brought heavy rain, huge waves, and extreme storm surge to hundreds of miles of coastline in western Alaska. The storm damaged and destroyed homes, roads, and communications infrastructure and also caused long-term disruptions to subsistence hunting and fishing activities in vulnerable Indigenous communities. Warmer temperatures have also increased the risk of glacial outburst, in which a melting glacier suddenly releases water dammed up behind it. In August 2024, an outburst from Mendenhall Glacier caused the Mendenhall River to reach record levels, leading to major flooding in Juneau.
Under the intermediate and higher emissions pathways, historically unprecedented warming is projected during this century (Figure 2). Even under the lower emissions pathway, some projections show annual average temperatures exceeding historical record levels by the middle of the century. However, projections for all three pathways show a large range of potential temperature increases, and some projections for the lower pathway are comparable to recent observed values.
Under the intermediate emissions pathway, statistically significant increases are projected across the state in total annual precipitation by midcentury (Figure 9). Statistically significant increases are also projected across the majority of the state in spring, summer, and fall precipitation. There is uncertainty in projections for winter precipitation.
Map of the state of Alaska showing the projected changes in total annual precipitation by the middle of this century as described in the caption.
Legend values range from less than negative 10 to greater than positive 15 percent.
All of Alaska is projected to see statistically significant increases in total annual precipitation in the following ranges: from 5 to 10 percent along the southernmost portion of the state, 10 to 15 percent across most of the remainder of the state, and 15 percent or more across the northernmost portion.
Observed sea level rise in Alaska varies greatly from north to south. In northern Alaska and along other parts of the coast, tectonic activity results in land subsidence (sinking), exacerbating the effect of sea level rise; on average sea levels in northern Alaska have risen by about 4 inches between 1988 and 2020 (Figure 10a). By contrast, sea levels are falling across much of the southern Alaska coast due to isostatic rebound (the lifting up of land once weighted by glaciers); on average sea levels in southern Alaska have dropped by about 9 inches between 1970 and 2020 (Figure 10b). (For comparison, sea levels in the contiguous US rose by about 6 inches between 1970 and 2020.) Projected sea level changes also vary significantly between northern and southern Alaska and across the range of sea level scenarios. For northern Alaska (Figure 10a), projections under the Intermediate sea level scenario show no increases by 2050 and an increase of about 1 inch by 2070. Across the five scenarios shown, the projected changes from 2020 to 2070 range from a decrease of 5 inches to an increase of 2 feet. For southern Alaska (Figure 10b), projections under the Intermediate sea level scenario show decreases of about 6 inches by 2050 and 8 inches by 2070. Projected changes from 2020 to 2070 across the five scenarios range from a decrease of 1.2 feet to an increase of 1.2 feet, with only the Intermediate-High and High scenarios indicating potential increases. The most dire threats to Alaska's coastline emerge from other phenomena, particularly erosion from the combined effects of sea ice loss and permafrost thaw.
Two time series of observed and projected relative sea level change for (a) Northern Alaska and (b) Southern Alaska as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from negative 2 to positive 2.5 feet for both graphs. Legends in both graphs denote sources of historical data and scenarios for projections. Line colors for historical data are black for tide gauge data and orange for satellite data. Line and shading colors for projections based on five scenarios are as follows: light blue, Low; medium blue, Intermediate-Low; dark blue, Intermediate; yellow, Intermediate-High; and dark orange, High.
Panel A: Northern Alaska
Tide gauge and satellite data generally show increases but with year-to-year variability, while projected data show increases under the High, Intermediate-High, and Intermediate scenarios but decreases under the Intermediate-Low and Low scenarios. Tide gauge values range from a minimum of –0.3 feet in 1999 to a maximum of 0.5 feet in 2024. Satellite values range from a minimum of –0.2 feet in 2013 to a maximum of 0.1 feet in 2016. Projected sea level median values (lines) for the Low scenario range from –0.1 feet in 2020 to –0.5 feet in 2070, compared to 0.0 feet in 2020 to 1.5 feet in 2070 for the High scenario. Likely ranges (shading) become wider over the period shown. The range of likely values in 2070 for each of the five scenarios are as follows: Low scenario, from –0.6 to –0.3 feet; Intermediate-Low, –0.4 to 0.0 feet; Intermediate, –0.2 to 0.5 feet; Intermediate-High, 0.2 to 1.4 feet; and High, 0.8 to 2.1 feet.
Panel B: Southern Alaska
The tide gauge line show a general decrease, while the satellite line shows a general increase. Projected lines show increases under the High and Intermediate scenarios but decreases under the Intermediate, Intermediate-Low, and Low scenarios. All historical and projected values are below those shown in the Northern Alaska graph. Tide gauge values range from a minimum of –0.5 feet in 2024 to a maximum of 0.5 feet in 1976. Satellite values range from a minimum of –0.4 feet in 2013 to a maximum of –0.1 feet in 2024. Projected sea level median values (lines) for the Low scenario range from –0.3 feet in 2020 to –1.5 feet in 2070, compared to –0.2 feet in 2020 to 0.4 feet in 2070 for the High scenario. Likely ranges (shading) become wider over the period shown. The range of likely values in 2070 for each of the five scenarios are as follows: Low scenario, from –1.6 to –1.3 feet; Intermediate-Low, –1.3 to –1.0 feet; Intermediate, –1.1 to –0.5 feet; Intermediate-High, –0.8 to 0.4 feet; and High, –0.3 to 1.0 feet.
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