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2025 State Climate Summaries

ALABAMA

DeSoto Falls Panoramic View by Jody Claborn
License: Public domain

KEY MESSAGES

Key Message1

There has been little net change in annual average temperatures in Alabama since the beginning of the 20th century, but the state has warmed rapidly since the 1970s, and 2015–2024 was the warmest decade on record. Under the intermediate and higher emissions pathways, historically unprecedented warming is projected during this century.

Key Message2

Tornadoes and tropical cyclones both pose significant risks in Alabama. An average of 57 tornadoes touched down in the state every year between 1995 and 2024. Between 1900 and 2024, Alabama was directly impacted by 144 tropical cyclones, including 38 hurricanes.

Key Message3

Alabama sea levels rose by about 8 inches between 1971 and 2020. Projections under the Intermediate sea level scenario show an additional rise of about 10 inches by 2050 and 1.6 feet by 2070. Sea level rise poses widespread and continuing threats to both natural and built environments in coastal Alabama.

Alabama is located at subtropical latitudes between the Gulf of America (formerly Gulf of Mexico) and the southern end of the vast, relatively flat plains of central North America, which extend from the Arctic Circle to the gulf. The warm, moist air from the gulf is an important factor in Alabama's climate, which is characterized by relatively mild winters, hot and humid summers, and year-round precipitation. Alabama's warm, humid climate is favorable for agricultural production and tourism. Summer high temperatures range from the mid-80s (°F) in northern locations at higher elevations to more than 90°F in the southern part of the state (1991–2020 averages). However, the gulf helps moderate temperatures somewhat in the coastal plain. Winter low temperatures range from less than 32°F in the north to more than 40°F along the coast. Annual precipitation generally ranges from 50 to 60 inches across most of the state, with higher values in the southwest—some coastal locations receive more than 70 inches per year on average. Precipitation is distributed rather uniformly throughout the year, except for a relatively dry period between August and October.

Figure 1 Observed and Projected Temperature Change
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Figure 1. Observed and Projected Temperature Change. For more details, consult the image description section following the caption.
Figure 1: Observed and projected changes (compared to the 1901–1960 average) in near-surface annual average air temperature for Alabama. Observed data are for 1900–2024. Projected changes for 2015–2100 were generated using global climate models to explore three possible futures, associated with lower, intermediate, and higher greenhouse gas emissions pathways (the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively). There has been little net change in temperatures in Alabama (black line) since the beginning of the 20th century (based on a linear trend). Warming in recent decades has been much more rapid, with temperatures increasing at a rate of about 0.5°F per decade over 1970–2024. Shading indicates the range of annual temperatures from the set of models. Observed temperatures are generally within the envelope of model simulations of the historical period (light gray shading). Less warming is expected under a lower emissions future (the coldest end-of-century projections being about 1.7°F warmer than the 1901–1960 average; blue shading) and more warming under a higher emissions future (the hottest end-of-century projections being about 11.6°F warmer than the hottest year in the observed record; red shading), while the intermediate emissions future leads to moderate warming (with end-of-century projections ranging from about 3.4°F to 8.7°F above the 1901–1960 average; dark gray shading). Adapted from Runkle et al. 2022. Data: NClimDiv and CMIP6.
Description

Time series of observed and projected temperature change (in degrees Fahrenheit) for Alabama from 1900 to 2100 as described in the caption.

Y-axis values range from negative 4 to positive 16 degrees. Observed annual temperatures from 1900 to 2024 show variability and range from negative 2.7 to positive 2.3 degrees. By the end of the century, projected increases in temperature range from 1.6 to 6.6 degrees under the lower emissions pathway, from 3.6 to 8.9 degrees under the intermediate pathway, and from 7.3 to 14.3 degrees under the higher pathway.

There has been little net change in annual average temperatures in Alabama since the beginning of the 20th century, one of the few areas globally to experience very little overall warming during that period. Temperatures were generally above the long-term average in the 1920s and 1930s, including the two warmest years on record in 1921 and 1927. This was followed by a substantial cooling of almost 2°F into the 1960s and 1970s. Since that cool period, the state has been warming rapidly: annual average temperatures have increased by about 2.5°F since 1970, and 2015–2024 was the warmest decade on record (Figure 1). The contiguous United States as a whole warmed by about 2.2°F from 1900 to 2024, although it also cooled from the 1930s into the 1960s but not by nearly as much as Alabama. Hypothesized causes for this difference in warming rates in parts of the Southeast US include increased cloud cover and precipitation, increased small particles from coal burning, natural factors related to forest regrowth, decreased heat flux due to irrigation, and multidecadal variability in North Atlantic and tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures.

Statewide summer average maximum temperature over the period of record (1895–2024) has ranged from 86.5°F (in 1967) to 95.1°F (in 1902). Daily temperatures exceeding 95°F are common, and since the late 1950s, 5-year averages for very hot days have all been below those recorded during the 1930s, early 1940s, and early 1950s (Figure 2a). Since the late 1990s, 5-year averages for very warm nights have mostly been near or above average but still below the 5-year average of the early 1930s (Figure 2b). In winter, very cold temperatures are rare in Alabama, although the majority of the state does experience freezes from October/November through March/April. Freezing temperatures are rare along the Gulf Coast, however.

Figure 2 Observed Number of Very Hot Days and Very Warm Nights
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Figure 2. Observed Number of Very Hot Days and Very Warm Nights. For more details, consult the image description section following the caption.
Figure 2: Observed annual number of (a) very hot days (maximum temperature of 95°F or higher) and (b) very warm nights (minimum temperature of 75°F or higher) for Alabama from 1900 to 2024. Dots show annual values. Bars show averages over 5-year periods. The horizontal black lines show the long-term (entire period) averages of (a) 20.4 days and (b) 3.2 nights. The number of very hot days has generally been below average since the late 1950s, while the number of very warm nights has mostly been near or above average since the late 1990s. Adapted from Runkle et al. 2022. Data: GHCN-Daily.
Description

Two graphs of the observed annual number of (a) very hot days and (b) very warm nights for Alabama from 1900 to 2024 as described in the caption.

Panel A: Very Hot Days
Y-axis values range from 0 to 80 days. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0 to 73.9 days. Five-year values also show variability and are mostly near or above the long-term average of 20.4 days between 1900 and 1954 but are all near or below average since 1955 except for the 1980 to 1984 period. The 1970 to 1974 period has the lowest 5-year value at 7.6 days, and the 1950 to 1954 period has the highest at 43.1 days.

Panel B: Very Warm Nights
Y-axis values for very warm nights range from 0 to 14 nights. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0 to 13.1 nights. Five-year values also show variability and are mostly near or above the long-term average of 3.2 nights between 1900 and 1954 but are all near or below average between 1955 and 1994. Since 1995, 5-year values are all near or above average except for the 2000 to 2004 period. The 1960 to 1964 period has the lowest 5-year value at 0.7. The 1930 to 1934 and 2020 to 2024 periods have the highest 5-year values at 9.2 and 6.9 nights, respectively.

Statewide total annual precipitation is highly variable from year to year, ranging from a low of 35.4 inches in 1954 to a high of 75.1 inches in 1929 (Figure 3). There is no long-term trend in annual precipitation over the period of record (1895–2024); however, the number of 3-inch extreme precipitation events has mostly been above average since the late 1990s (Figure 4). The combination of variable summer precipitation patterns and the prevalence of soils with poor water-holding capacity frequently gives rise to short-term drought conditions. Alabama is also prone to flash drought (the rapid onset or intensification of drought), including a severe event in early fall 2019 that also impacted other states in the region. Droughts of varying severity have occurred several times since the beginning of this century.

Figure 3 Observed Total Annual Precipitation
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Figure 3. Observed Total Annual Precipitation. For more details, consult the image description section following the caption.
Figure 3: Observed total annual precipitation for Alabama from 1895 to 2024. Dots show annual values. Bars show averages over 5-year periods. The horizontal black line shows the long-term (entire period) average of 55.4 inches. Total annual precipitation shows high year-to-year variability and no overall trend. Adapted from Runkle et al. 2022. Data: NClimDiv.
Description

Graph of the observed total annual precipitation for Alabama from 1895 to 2024 as described in the caption.

Y-axis values range from 32 to 80 inches. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 35.4 to 75.1 inches. Five-year values also show variability and are mostly near or below the long-term average of 55.4 inches between 1895 and 1969. One exception is the 1945 to 1949 period, which has the highest 5-year value at 61.8 inches. Since 1970, 5-year values are mostly above average. The 1895 to 1899 period has the lowest 5-year value at 48.4 inches.

Figure 4 Observed Number of 3-Inch Extreme Precipitation Events
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Figure 4. Observed Number of 3-Inch Extreme Precipitation Events. For more details, consult the image description section following the caption.
Figure 4: Observed annual number of 3-inch extreme precipitation events (days with precipitation of 3 inches or more) for Alabama from 1900 to 2024. Dots show annual values. Bars show averages over 5-year periods. The horizontal black line shows the long-term (entire period) average of 1.1 events, indicating that a typical reporting station experiences about one event per year. The number of 3-inch extreme precipitation events has mostly been above average since the late 1990s. Adapted from Runkle et al. 2022. Data: GHCN-Daily.
Description

Graph of the observed annual number of 3-inch extreme precipitation events for Alabama from 1900 to 2024 as described in the caption.

Y-axis values range from 0.0 to 3.5 events. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0.1 to 3.0 events. Five-year values also show variability and are mostly near or below the long-term average of 1.1 events between 1900 and 1959 but are mostly above average since 1960. The 1985 to 1989 period has the lowest 5-year value at 0.6 events, and the 1960 to 1964 and 2020 to 2024 periods have the highest at 1.68 and 1.66 events, respectively.

Tornadoes and tropical cyclones are two of the deadliest weather hazards in Alabama. Between 1995 and 2024 an average of 57 tornadoes touched down in Alabama each year. Over April 3–4, 1974, a deadly tornado outbreak hit 13 states stretching from the Gulf Coast to southern Michigan. Alabama was one of the hardest-hit states, experiencing violent and long-lived tornadoes, including one F4 and three F5s that caused widespread destruction, 77 fatalities, and injuries to more than 900 people. During April 26–28, 2011, another deadly tornado outbreak swept across the southern, midwestern, and northeastern United States. Once again, Alabama was one of the hardest-hit states, suffering extensive damage and an estimated 238 tornado-related deaths. Deadly tornado outbreaks have continued in Alabama in recent years, including storms that killed seven people in January 2023 and six people in March 2021. Hurricanes and tropical storms can also cause massive property damage. Between 1900 and 2024, Alabama was directly impacted by 144 tropical cyclones (Figure 5), including 38 hurricanes. In 2005, Hurricane Katrina brought hurricane-force winds along the Alabama coastline, spawning tornadoes and causing widespread wind damage and flooding following a storm tide (a storm surge combined with an already-present tide) of 14 to 18 feet. In 2012, Hurricane Isaac resulted in a storm surge of 4.63 feet above normal tide levels in the Mobile Bay area and 3 to 5 feet of inundation along the coast of Alabama. More recently, Hurricane Sally made landfall on September 16, 2020, along the Alabama coast, resulting in widespread damage to trees and powerlines as well as heavy rainfall along the coast and inland due to the slow movement of the storm. The number of landfalling Atlantic hurricanes is not expected to rise. However, rainfall rates from such storms, as well as the proportion of time they spend as major hurricanes, are projected to increase.

Figure 5 Total Tropical Cyclone Events in Alabama
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Figure 5. Total Tropical Cyclone Events in Alabama. For more details, consult the image description section following the caption.
Figure 5: Observed total number of tropical cyclone events for Alabama from 1900 to 2024. Bars show 5-year totals. These tropical cyclones are categorized, based on maximum wind strength, as tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes. Between 1900 and 2024, the state was impacted by 144 tropical cyclones, including 38 hurricanes. There is no long-term trend in the number of tropical cyclone events. Adapted from Runkle et al. 2022. Data: HURDAT2 and IBTrACSv4.
Description

Graph of the total number of tropical cyclone events in Alabama from 1900 to 2024 as described in the caption.

Y-axis values range from 0 to 10 events. Five-year totals show variability across the period of record and range from 1 event for the 2010 to 2014 period to 9 events each for the 2000 to 2004 and 2005 to 2009 periods. Particularly active periods were 1900 to 1919 with a total of 29 events and 1995 to 2009 with a total of 24 events.

Under the intermediate and higher emissions pathways, historically unprecedented warming is projected during this century (Figure 1). Even under the lower emissions pathway, most projections show annual average temperatures exceeding historical levels by the middle of the century. However, projections for all three pathways show a large range of potential temperature increases, and some projections for the lower pathway are comparable to recent observed values.

Under the intermediate emissions pathway, projections indicate increases in total annual precipitation by midcentury for Alabama; however, the projected changes are not statistically significant (Figure 6). There is similar uncertainty in projections for seasonal precipitation, although models generally indicate statewide increases in all seasons. The frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events are projected to increase, potentially increasing the frequency and intensity of floods.

Figure 6 Projected Changes in Total Annual Precipitation
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Figure 6. Projected Changes in Total Annual Precipitation. For more details, consult the image description section following the caption.
Figure 6: Projected changes in total annual precipitation (%) for the middle of the 21st century (2041–2070) compared to the 1991–2020 average under the intermediate emissions pathway (SSP2-4.5 scenario). For areas with hatching, a majority of models project statistically significant changes and agree on the direction of change. For areas without hatching, less than half of models project statistically significant changes. Projections indicate increases in total annual precipitation across Alabama by midcentury; however, these changes are not statistically significant. Adapted from Runkle et al. 2022. Data: CMIP6.
Description

Map of the contiguous United States showing the projected changes in total annual precipitation by the middle of this century as described in the caption. The state of Alabama is outlined in black.

Legend values range from less than negative 10 to greater than positive 15 percent. Note: unless otherwise specified, projected values are not statistically significant.

Alabama
The entire state of Alabama is projected to see increases in total annual precipitation of up to 5 percent.

Contiguous US
Projected increases in total annual precipitation are as follows: up to 5 percent for most of the Southeast, as well as the central Midwest, central Great Plains, central West, and Northwest; and 5 to 10 percent for all of the Northeast, as well as portions of the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, northern Midwest, northern Great Plains, and Pacific Northwest, with statistically significant increases in the 5 to 10 percent range for the Northeast, northeastern Midwest, and portions of the northern Great Plains and Pacific Northwest.

Projected decreases of up to 5 percent are expected across most of Texas, New Mexico, and Arizona, as well as southern California.

Periodic droughts, a natural part of the state's climate, are projected to be more intense because higher temperatures will increase evaporation rates and soil moisture loss during dry spells, exacerbating drought conditions. Resulting decreases in water availability, compounded by population growth, will continue to increase competition for water.

Alabama is at considerable risk from sea level rise due to rising temperatures and land subsidence (sinking). On average, the state experienced about 8 inches of sea level rise between 1970 and 2020—compared to 6 inches for the contiguous US as a whole—and projections under the Intermediate sea level scenario show additional increases of about 10 inches by 2050 and 1.6 feet by 2070 (Figure 7). Across the five scenarios shown in Figure 7, the projected increases from 2020 to 2070 range from about 1 to 3.5 feet. Rising sea levels pose a threat to the state's coastal communities, infrastructure, and ecosystems. Highways and port and marine waterway systems along the low-lying coast of Mobile, as well as coastal wetlands, are particularly vulnerable.

Sea level rise has caused an increase in high-tide floods associated with nuisance-level impacts, which are occurring more frequently, even on sunny days. High-tide flooding occurs when one or more factors—sea level rise, winds, changes in ocean currents, full or new moons—push water levels above the normal high-tide mark. These events can damage infrastructure, cause road closures, and overwhelm storm drains. High-tide flooding has increased in all US coastal areas, with more rapid increases along the East and Gulf Coasts, and is likely to occur more frequently in Alabama as global and local sea levels continue to rise.

Figure 7 Observed and Projected Sea Level Change for the Contiguous US and Alabama
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Figure 7. Observed and Projected Sea Level Change for the Contiguous US and Alabama. For more details, consult the image description section following the caption.
Figure 7: Observed and projected sea level changes for (a) the contiguous US and (b) Alabama from 1970 to 2070, relative to the year 2000. Observed changes are shown for tide gauge data (1970–2024 [a], 1971–2024 [b]; black line) and satellite altimetry data (1992–2024; light orange line). Projected changes from 2020 to 2070 are shown for five scenarios from the Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flood Hazard Scenarios and Tools Interagency Task Force (Low, light blue; Intermediate-Low, medium blue; Intermediate, dark blue; Intermediate-High, yellow; and High, dark orange). Projections are 19-year averages centered on the years 2020, 2030, 2040, and so on. Solid lines represent median scenario values, while shading represents likely ranges for each scenario. Sea levels along the Alabama coast are rising at a rate higher than that of the contiguous United States as a whole, having increased on average by about 8 inches from 1971 to 2020, with an additional 1–3.5 feet projected by 2070 (note that satellite observations do not account for the effects of local land subsidence, which are reflected in tide gauge observations). By comparison, sea levels for the contiguous US rose 6 inches from 1970 to 2020, with a further increase of about 0.5–3.5 feet projected by 2070. (a) Adapted from Sweet et al. 2022. (b) Source: CISESS NC. Data: Mean Sea Level Dataset for Sweet et al. 2022.
Description

Two time series of observed and projected relative sea level change for (a) the contiguous US and (b) Alabama from 1970 to 2070 as described in the caption.

Y-axis values range from negative 1 to positive 5 feet for both graphs. Legends in both graphs denote sources of historical data and scenarios for projections. Line colors for historical data are black for tide gauge data and orange for satellite data. Line and shading colors for projections based on five scenarios are as follows: light blue, Low; medium blue, Intermediate-Low; dark blue, Intermediate; yellow, Intermediate-High; and dark orange, High.

Contiguous US
Tide gauge and satellite data generally show increases but with year-to-year variability. Tide gauge values range from a minimum of negative 0.3 feet in 1976 to a maximum of positive 0.4 feet in 2023. Satellite values range from a minimum of 0.0 feet in 1994 to a maximum of 0.4 feet in 2023. Projected sea level median values (lines) for the Low scenario range from 0.3 feet in 2020 to 1.1 feet in 2070, compared to 0.4 feet in 2020 to 3.1 feet in 2070 for the High scenario. Likely ranges (shading) become wider over the period shown. The ranges of likely values in 2070 for each of the five scenarios are as follows: Low scenario, from 0.9 to 1.4 feet; Intermediate-Low, 1.2 to 1.7 feet; Intermediate, 1.5 to 2.2 feet; Intermediate-High, 1.8 to 3.1 feet; and High, 2.4 to 3.8 feet.

Alabama
The tide gauge line shows an increase higher than that in the contiguous US graph, while the satellite line shows a lower increase. All future scenario lines show increases higher than those in the contiguous US graph. Tide gauge values range from a minimum of negative 0.6 feet in 1981 to a maximum of positive 0.6 feet in 2020. Satellite values range from a minimum of negative 0.1 feet in 2006 to a maximum of positive 0.5 feet in 2020. Projected sea level median values (lines) for the Low scenario range from 0.4 feet in 2020 to 1.3 feet in 2070, compared to 0.4 feet in 2020 to 3.4 feet in 2070 for the High scenario. Likely ranges (shading) become wider over the period shown. The ranges of likely values in 2070 for each of the five scenarios are as follows: Low scenario, from 1.1 to 1.6 feet; Intermediate-Low, 1.4 to 1.9 feet; Intermediate, 1.7 to 2.4 feet; Intermediate-High, 2.1 to 3.3 feet; and High, 3.6 to 4.0 feet.

Details on observations and projections are available on the Technical Details and Additional Information page.
The compiled version of the 2022 State Climate Summaries, including the complete author list and recommended citations, is available on the Downloads page.

Authors
Laura E. Stevens, North Carolina State University
James Anheuser, North Carolina State University
Mark R. Essig, North Carolina State University
April D. Lamb, North Carolina State University
Thomas K. Maycock, North Carolina State University
Andrea L. McCarrick, North Carolina State University
Alexis Visovatti, North Carolina State University
Contributors
Jessicca Allen, Visual Communications Lead and PDF Layout, North Carolina State University
Jeff Bliss, Data Explorer Tool Development, National Environmental Mapping and Applications Center
Amy Camper, Visual Communications and PDF Layout, Innovative Consulting & Management Services, LLC
Ryan Cox, Web Application Engineer, North Carolina State University
Jacquelyn Crossman, Citation Management, NOAA NCEI Librarian, MPF-ZAI
Greg Dobson, GIS and Figure Development, National Environmental Mapping and Applications Center
David R. Easterling, Advisor, Future Climate, LLC, and Earth Knowledge, Inc.
Aaron Goodman, Web Developer, North Carolina State University
Katharine M. Johnson, Web Team Lead and GIS Analyst, North Carolina State University
Kenneth E. Kunkel, Advisor and Principal Research Scholar, North Carolina State University
Ciara R. Lemery, Figure and Production Coordination, Independent Contractor
Angel Li, Web Developer, North Carolina State University
Dave Michelson, Data Explorer Tool Development, National Environmental Mapping and Applications Center
Ronald Opio, Data Analysis and Figure Development, North Carolina State University
Xia Sun, Data Analysis and Figure Development, North Carolina State University
Xiangdong Zhang, Advisor, North Carolina State University
Acknowledgements
Christopher Fuhrmann, Southeast Region Expert Review, Southeast Regional Climate Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Tamara Houston, Regional Climate Center Review Coordination, NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information
Brittney W. Parker, Sea Level Rise Expert Review, NOAA National Ocean Service
Carl Schreck, Tropical Meteorology Advisor, North Carolina State University
William Sweet, Sea Level Rise Expert Review, NOAA National Ocean Service
John Uehling, Tropical Meteorology Advisor, North Carolina State University
Recommended Citation
Stevens, L.E., J. Anheuser, M.R. Essig, A.D. Lamb, T.K. Maycock, A.L. McCarrick, and A. Visovatti, 2026: 2025 State Climate Summaries for the United States: Alabama. [Update to Runkle et al., 2022: Alabama State Climate Summary 2022.] North Carolina Institute for Climate Studies Report NCICS-001-AL. North Carolina State University, Asheville, NC. https://doi.org/10.52750/278516

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