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2025 State Climate Summaries

ARKANSAS

Winter Sunset on Rosenbaum Lake by Brad Sims
License: CC BY-NC-ND 2.0

KEY MESSAGES

Key Message1

Annual average temperatures in Arkansas have increased a little more than 0.5°F since the beginning of the 20th century. This is less than a quarter of the warming recorded for the contiguous United States, but the state has warmed rapidly since the 1970s, and 2015–2024 was the warmest decade on record. Under the intermediate and higher emissions pathways, historically unprecedented warming is projected during this century.

Key Message2

Total annual precipitation is highly variable from year-to-year but exhibits an overall upward trend since 1895. Although there has been no clear long-term trend in the number of extreme precipitation events, the frequency and intensity of these events are projected to increase, potentially increasing the frequency and intensity of floods.

Key Message3

Drought conditions have occurred frequently in Arkansas since the 2000s, and rising temperatures are projected to make future droughts more intense. Heat waves are also projected to become more intense, while cold waves are projected to become less intense.

Arkansas is located close but not adjacent to the Gulf of America (formerly Gulf of Mexico), resulting in a climate with moderately large variations in temperature and abundant precipitation. Summers are hot and humid, while winters are typically short and cool with occasional episodes of cold Arctic air. Northern and western regions of Arkansas include the Ozark Mountains and are generally higher in elevation, particularly in the Boston Mountains portion of the range, where some peaks exceed 2,500 feet. Thus, temperatures are generally cooler in this area; for example, the July average high temperature at Deer (elevation: 2,375 feet) in the northwest is 83°F, while it is 91°F at Jonesboro (elevation: 260 feet) in the northeast (1991–2020 averages). Summer average high temperatures also generally exceed 90°F across central and southern Arkansas. January average low temperatures range from less than 25°F in the Ozark Mountains to more than 34°F in the southwest. Extreme temperatures range from a record high of 120°F at Ozark (August 10, 1936) to a record low of −29°F at Gravette (February 13, 1905). Precipitation is abundant throughout the year, with winter and spring being the wettest seasons. Annual precipitation generally ranges from around 40 to 60 inches per year across the state.

Figure 1 Observed and Projected Temperature Change
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Figure 1. Observed and Projected Temperature Change. For more details, consult the image description section following the caption.
Figure 1: Observed and projected changes (compared to the 1901–1960 average) in near-surface annual average air temperature for Arkansas. Observed data are for 1900–2024. Projected changes for 2015–2100 were generated using global climate models to explore three possible futures, associated with lower, intermediate, and higher greenhouse gas emissions pathways (the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively). Temperatures in Arkansas (black line) have increased more than 0.5°F since the beginning of the 20th century (based on a linear trend). This is less than a quarter of the warming recorded for the contiguous United States, but the state has warmed rapidly since the 1970s, and the most recent decade (2015–2024) was the warmest on record. Shading indicates the range of annual temperatures from the set of models. Observed temperatures are generally within the envelope of model simulations of the historical period (light gray shading). Less warming is expected under a lower emissions future (the coldest end-of-century projections being about 1.8°F warmer than the 1901–1960 average; blue shading) and more warming under a higher emissions future (the hottest end-of-century projections being about 12.6°F warmer than the hottest year in the observed record; red shading), while the intermediate emissions future leads to moderate warming (with end-of-century projections ranging from about 3.9°F to 9.8°F above the 1901–1960 average; dark gray shading). Adapted from Runkle et al. 2022. Data: NClimDiv and CMIP6.
Description

Time series of observed and projected temperature change (in degrees Fahrenheit) for Arkansas from 1900 to 2100 as described in the caption.

Y-axis values range from negative 4 to positive 18 degrees. Observed annual temperatures from 1900 to 2024 show variability and range from negative 2.6 to positive 3.0 degrees. By the end of the century, projected increases in temperature range from 1.7 to 7.1 degrees under the lower emissions pathway, from 3.9 to 10.1 degrees under the intermediate pathway, and from 7.9 to 16.1 degrees under the higher pathway.

Annual average temperatures in Arkansas have risen rapidly since the 1970s, with the last decade (2015–2024) being the warmest on record (Figure 1). However, Arkansas and neighboring states in the southeastern US are among the few locations globally that have experienced relatively little overall warming since 1900. Arkansas has seen a series of shifting trends—warming from the early 20th century into the 1930s, then substantial cooling until the 1970s, followed by the recent rapid warming—resulting in a net increase since 1900 of a little more than 0.5°F, compared to 2.2°F for the contiguous US as a whole. Hypothesized causes for this difference in warming rates in parts of the Southeast US include increased cloud cover and precipitation, increased small particles from coal burning, natural factors related to forest regrowth, decreased heat flux due to irrigation, and multidecadal variability in North Atlantic and tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures.

Summer average temperatures have generally been near or above average since the 1980s. The 2010–2014 period approximated the record-high levels of the early 1930s and early 1950s due to a string of three very warm summers (2010–2012), with a 5-year average that was 1.3°F above the long-term average (Figure 2). The number of extremely hot days peaked during the 1930s and early 1950s, coinciding with periods of drought; however, since the late 1950s, the number of such days has generally been below average (Figure 3a). The number of very warm nights has generally been near or above average since the 1980s (Figure 3b); the 2010–2014 5-year average was the highest on record, with a value nearly double the long-term average. Very cold nights (nights with a minimum temperature of 0°F or lower) are relatively infrequent in Arkansas and show no distinct long-term trend (Figure 4).

Figure 2 Observed Summer Average Temperature
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Figure 2. Observed Summer Average Temperature. For more details, consult the image description section following the caption.
Figure 2: Observed summer (June–August) average temperature for Arkansas from 1895 to 2024. Dots show annual values. Bars show averages over 5-year periods. The horizontal black line shows the long-term (entire period) average of 78.9°F. Summer average temperatures have mostly been near or above average since the 1980s. Notably, the 2010–2014 period is high due to very warm summers in 2010, 2011, and 2012. Adapted from Runkle et al. 2022. Data: NClimDiv.
Description

Graph of the observed summer average temperature for Arkansas from 1895 to 2024 as described in the caption.

Y-axis values range from 74 to 84 degrees Fahrenheit. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 75.7 to 83.2 degrees. Five-year values also show variability and are all near or below the long-term average of 78.9 degrees between 1900 and 1929; the 1895 to 1899 period is above average. Between 1930 and 1954, 5-year values are all above average except for the 1945 to 1949 period, and they are all below average between 1955 and 1979. Since 1980, 5-year values are mostly above average. The 1970 to 1974 period has the lowest 5-year value at 77.6 degrees, and the 1930 to 1934, 1950 to 1954, and 2010 to 2014 periods have the highest at 80.3, 80.3, and 80.2 degrees, respectively.

Figure 3 Observed Number of Extremely Hot Days and Very Warm Nights
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Figure 3. Observed Number of Extremely Hot Days and Very Warm Nights. For more details, consult the image description section following the caption.
Figure 3: Observed annual number of (a) extremely hot days (maximum temperature of 100°F or higher) and (b) very warm nights (minimum temperature of 75°F or higher) for Arkansas from 1900 to 2024. Dots show annual values. Bars show averages over 5-year periods. The horizontal black lines show the long-term (entire period) averages of (a) 8.2 days and (b) 10.1 nights. The number of extremely hot days has generally remained below average since the late 1950s. The number of very warm nights has mostly been near or above average since the 1980s. Adapted from Runkle et al. 2022. Data: GHCN-Daily.
Description

Two graphs of the observed annual number of (a) extremely hot days and (b) very warm nights for Arkansas from 1900 to 2024 as described in the caption.

Panel A: Extremely Hot Days
Y-axis values range from 0 to 60 days. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0 to 50.5 days. Five-year values also show variability and are all near or above the long-term average of 8.2 days between 1900 and 1954 except for the 1905 to 1909 period, but they are all near or below average since 1955 except for the 1980 to 1984 period. The 2015 to 2019 period has the lowest 5-year value at 1.6 days, and the 1950 to 1954 period has the highest at 21.8 days.

Panel B: Very Warm Nights
Y-axis values range from 0 to 36 nights. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 1.4 to 30.9 nights. Five-year values also show variability and are all below the long-term average of 10.1 nights between 1900 and 1919, mostly near or above average between 1920 and 1954, and all below average between 1955 and 1979. Since 1980, 5-year values are mostly above average. The 1970 to 1974 period has the lowest 5-year value at 4.4 nights, and the 2010 to 2014 period has the highest at 18.7 nights.

Figure 4 Observed Number of Very Cold Nights
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Figure 4. Observed Number of Very Cold Nights. For more details, consult the image description section following the caption.
Figure 4: Observed annual number of very cold nights (minimum temperature of 0°F or lower) for Arkansas from 1900 to 2024. Dots show annual values. Bars show averages over 5-year periods. The horizontal black line shows the long-term (entire period) average of 0.3 nights. The number of very cold nights has generally remained below average since the 1990s. Adapted from Runkle et al. 2022. Data: GHCN-Daily.
Description

Graph of the observed annual number of very cold nights for Arkansas from 1900 to 2024 as described in the caption.

Y-axis values range from 0 to 5 nights. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0 to 3.9 nights. Five-year values also show variability and are below the long-term average of 0.3 nights between 1900 and 1909, above average between 1910 and 1919, mostly below average between 1920 and 1974, and all above average between 1975 and 1989. Since 1990, 5-year values are all below average except for the 2020 to 2024 period. The 2005 to 2009 period has the lowest 5-year value at 0.0 nights, and the 1915 to 1919 period has the highest at 1.1 nights.

Total annual precipitation in Arkansas is highly variable from year-to-year but exhibits an overall upward trend, with the last ten years all near or above the long-term average (Figure 5a). Statewide total annual precipitation has ranged from a low of 32.8 inches in 1963 to a high of 72.2 inches in 2009. There is no clear overall trend in summer precipitation (Figure 5b); however, the 2015–2019 period had the highest 5-year average. There is also no clear long-term trend in the number of 3-inch extreme precipitation events; however, 9 of the last 10 years have been above average (Figure 6). Illustrating the state's year-to-year variability in precipitation are the severe droughts (as defined by the US Drought Monitor) during 2005–2007 and 2010–2012, which were interrupted by the wettest year on record (2009) and followed by the fifth wettest (2015). Arkansas was one of the hardest hit southeastern states during the 2012 drought, with every one of its 75 counties receiving a drought-related disaster declaration. Drought impacts tend to be most severe in the agricultural regions of eastern Arkansas, especially in the Mississippi Alluvial Plain. The state has experienced several flash droughts (the rapid onset or intensification of drought), which negatively affect vegetation, agricultural lands, and grasslands.

Figure 5 Observed Total Annual and Total Summer Precipitation
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Figure 5. Observed Total Annual and Total Summer Precipitation. For more details, consult the image description section following the caption.
Figure 5: Observed total (a) annual and (b) summer (June–August) precipitation for Arkansas from 1895 to 2024. Dots show annual values. Bars show averages over 5-year periods. The horizontal black lines show the long-term (entire period) averages of (a) 50.1 inches and (b) 11.3 inches. Both annual precipitation and summer precipitation show substantial year-to-year variability. Total annual precipitation shows an overall upward trend. Summer precipitation shows no clear long-term trend, but the highest 5-year average was recorded for 2015–2019. Adapted from Runkle et al. 2022. Data: NClimDiv.
Description

Two graphs of the observed total (a) annual and (b) summer precipitation for Arkansas from 1895 to 2024 as described in the caption.

Panel A: Total Annual Precipitation
Y-axis values range from 28 to 76 inches. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 32.8 to 72.2 inches. Five-year values also show variability and are mostly below the long-term average of 50.1 inches between 1895 and 1969 but are mostly near or above average since 1970. The 1895 to 1899, 1900 to 1904, and 1960 to 1964 periods have the lowest 5-year values at 45.3, 44.8, and 45.1 inches, respectively, and the 2015 to 2019 period has the highest at 59.6 inches.

Panel B: Total Summer Precipitation
Y-axis values range from 2 to 20 inches. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 4.0 to 18.1 inches. Five-year values also show variability and are below the long-term average of 11.3 inches for 1895 to 1899 period, all above average between 1900 and 1929 except for the 1920 to 1924 period, all near or below average between 1930 and 1954, all near or above average between 1955 and 1979 except for the 1965 to 1969 period, and all near or below average between 1980 and 2014. The 2015 to 2019 and 2020 to 2024 periods are above average. The 1930 to 1934 period has the lowest 5-year value at 9.5 inches, and the 2015 to 2019 period has the highest at 14.1 inches.

Figure 6 Observed Number of 3-Inch Extreme Precipitation Events
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Figure 6. Observed Number of 3-Inch Extreme Precipitation Events. For more details, consult the image description section following the caption.
Figure 6: Observed annual number of 3-inch extreme precipitation events (days with precipitation of 3 inches or more) for Arkansas from 1900 to 2024. Dots show annual values. Bars show averages over 5-year periods. The horizontal black line shows the long-term (entire period) average of 1.1 events, indicating that a typical reporting station experiences one event per year. There is no clear long-term trend in the number of 3-inch extreme precipitation events, although 9 of the last 10 years have been above average. The 2015–2019 period had the highest 5-year average. Adapted from Runkle et al. 2022. Data: GHCN-Daily.
Description

Graph of the observed annual number of 3-inch extreme precipitation events for Arkansas from 1900 to 2024 as described in the caption.

Y-axis values range from 0.0 to 3.5 events. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0.1 to 3.0 events. Five-year values also show variability and are mostly near or below the long-term average of 1.1 events between 1900 and 2004 but are all near or above average since 2005 except for the 2010 to 2014 period. The 1995 to 1999 period has the lowest 5-year value at 0.8 events, and the 2015 to 2019 period has the highest at 1.9 events.

Extreme weather events in Arkansas include severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, flood-producing extreme precipitation events, and winter ice storms. The most destructive flood in US history, the Mississippi River Flood of 1927, inundated 36 counties in Arkansas, with floodwaters as deep as 30 feet in some places. This flood resulted from persistent heavy rainfall across the central United States from August 1926 through the spring of 1927. The unprecedented amounts of rainwater runoff overwhelmed the protective levees. This event led to the Flood Control Act of 1928, authorizing the Federal Government to undertake mitigation projects that have helped prevent other flooding events of this magnitude. However, in May 2011, floods submerged more than 1 million acres of Arkansas farmland, causing approximately $500 million in damages to the state’s agricultural industry. Arkansas regularly experiences tornadoes. From 1995 to 2024, Arkansas averaged 40 tornadoes and 4 tornado fatalities per year. Tornado impacts vary widely from year to year. On April 27, 2014, the Mayflower/Vilonia tornado killed 16 and injured 193 over its 41-mile-long track, but there were only four additional tornado-related fatalities in Arkansas during the next several years. More recently, numerous damaging tornadoes occurred in Arkansas in 2023, 2024, and 2025. The May 26, 2024, tornado outbreak across northwestern and north-central Arkansas was particularly devastating, leading to 10 fatalities. The tornadoes were part of a larger storm system that caused more than 20 deaths across several southern states. June 2023 also saw notable severe weather across the state, with multiple hailstorms that produced hailstones as large as 4 inches in diameter.

Under the intermediate and higher emissions pathways, historically unprecedented warming is projected during this century (Figure 1). Even under the lower emissions pathway, most projections show annual average temperatures exceeding historical levels by the middle of the century. However, projections for all three pathways show a large range of potential temperature increases, and some projections for the lower pathway are comparable to recent observed values. Heat wave intensity is projected to increase, while the intensity of cold waves is projected to decrease.

Under the intermediate emissions pathway, projections indicate increases in total annual precipitation for Arkansas by midcentury; however, the projected changes are not statistically significant (Figure 7). There is similar uncertainty in projections for seasonal precipitation, although models generally indicate statewide increases in spring and winter and decreases across most of the state in summer and fall. The frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events are projected to increase, potentially increasing the frequency and intensity of floods.

Figure 7 Projected Changes in Total Annual Precipitation
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Figure 7. Projected Changes in Total Annual Precipitation. For more details, consult the image description section following the caption.
Figure 7: Projected changes in total annual precipitation (%) for the middle of the 21st century (2041–2070) compared to the 1991–2020 average under the intermediate emissions pathway (SSP2-4.5 scenario). For areas with hatching, a majority of models project statistically significant changes and agree on the direction of change. For areas without hatching, less than half of models project statistically significant changes. Projections indicate increases in total annual precipitation across Arkansas by midcentury; however, these changes are not statistically significant. Adapted from Runkle et al. 2022. Data: CMIP6.
Description

Map of the contiguous United States showing the projected changes in total annual precipitation by the middle of this century as described in the caption. The state of Arkansas is outlined in black.

Legend values range from less than negative 10 to greater than positive 15 percent. Note: unless otherwise specified, projected values are not statistically significant.

Arkansas
The entire state of Arkansas is projected to see increases in total annual precipitation of up to 5 percent.

Contiguous US
Projected increases in total annual precipitation are as follows: up to 5 percent for most of the Southeast, as well as the central Midwest, central Great Plains, central West, and Northwest; and 5 to 10 percent for all of the Northeast, as well as portions of the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, northern Midwest, northern Great Plains, and Pacific Northwest, with statistically significant increases in the 5 to 10 percent range for the Northeast, northeastern Midwest, and portions of the northern Great Plains and Pacific Northwest.

Projected decreases of up to 5 percent are expected across most of Texas, New Mexico, and Arizona, as well as southern California.

Droughts, a natural part of Arkansas’s climate, are projected to become more intense due to higher temperatures and the associated increase in evaporation rates and soil moisture loss.

Details on observations and projections are available on the Technical Details and Additional Information page.
The compiled version of the 2022 State Climate Summaries, including the complete author list and recommended citations, is available on the Downloads page.

Authors
Laura E. Stevens, North Carolina State University
James Anheuser, North Carolina State University
Mark R. Essig, North Carolina State University
April D. Lamb, North Carolina State University
Thomas K. Maycock, North Carolina State University
Andrea L. McCarrick, North Carolina State University
Alexis Visovatti, North Carolina State University
Contributors
Jessicca Allen, Visual Communications Lead and PDF Layout, North Carolina State University
Jeff Bliss, Data Explorer Tool Development, National Environmental Mapping and Applications Center
Amy Camper, Visual Communications and PDF Layout, Innovative Consulting & Management Services, LLC
Ryan Cox, Web Application Engineer, North Carolina State University
Jacquelyn Crossman, Citation Management, NOAA NCEI Librarian, MPF-ZAI
Greg Dobson, GIS and Figure Development, National Environmental Mapping and Applications Center
David R. Easterling, Advisor, Future Climate, LLC, and Earth Knowledge, Inc.
Aaron Goodman, Web Developer, North Carolina State University
Katharine M. Johnson, Web Team Lead and GIS Analyst, North Carolina State University
Kenneth E. Kunkel, Advisor and Principal Research Scholar, North Carolina State University
Ciara R. Lemery, Figure and Production Coordination, Independent Contractor
Angel Li, Web Developer, North Carolina State University
Dave Michelson, Data Explorer Tool Development, National Environmental Mapping and Applications Center
Ronald Opio, Data Analysis and Figure Development, North Carolina State University
Xia Sun, Data Analysis and Figure Development, North Carolina State University
Xiangdong Zhang, Advisor, North Carolina State University
Acknowledgements
William Baule, Southern Region Expert Review, Southern Regional Climate Center, Texas A&M University
Tamara Houston, Regional Climate Center Review Coordination, NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information
John Nielsen-Gammon, Southern Region Expert Review, Southern Regional Climate Center, Texas A&M University
Recommended Citation
Stevens, L.E., J. Anheuser, M.R. Essig, A.D. Lamb, T.K. Maycock, A.L. McCarrick, and A. Visovatti, 2026: 2025 State Climate Summaries for the United States: Arkansas. [Update to Runkle et al., 2022: Arkansas State Climate Summary 2022.] North Carolina Institute for Climate Studies Report NCICS-001-AR. North Carolina State University, Asheville, NC. https://doi.org/10.52750/710110

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