California, the most populous and third-largest US state, has a diverse climate. The deserts in the south are some of the Nation's hottest and driest areas, while higher elevations can experience low temperatures and heavy snowfall. Due to the moderating effect of the Pacific Ocean, coastal locations experience mild year-round temperatures, while inland locations experience a wider range of temperatures. Average winter lows range from less than 20°F in many mountain locations to more than 45°F in coastal regions (1991–2020 averages). Typical summer high temperatures range from less than 70°F at high elevations and along the Northern California coast to more than 110°F in the Mojave Desert. The hottest temperature ever recorded in the United States (134°F) was at Furnace Creek (formerly Greenland Ranch) in Death Valley on July 10, 1913.
California experiences seasonal precipitation patterns, with generally dry summers and wet winters; more than half of the annual precipitation falls from December through February. Annual precipitation amounts range from less than 8 inches in the southern valleys and deserts to more than 50 inches in many locations along the western slopes of the Sierra Nevada, Cascade Range, and Northern Coast Ranges. Annual snowfall can total over 400 inches at some high-elevation locations.
Because of its large north–south extent and the existence of several mountain ranges, extreme weather and climate events often affect only a portion of the state. For example, while strong El Niño events often lead to excessive precipitation in Southern California, their effects in Northern California are inconsistent.
Time series of observed and projected temperature change (in degrees Fahrenheit) for California from 1900 to 2100 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from negative 4 to positive 16 degrees. Observed annual temperatures from 1900 to 2024 show variability and range from negative 1.7 to positive 4.4 degrees. By the end of the century, projected increases in temperature range from 1.7 to 6.5 degrees under the lower emissions pathway, from 3.6 to 9.2 degrees under the intermediate pathway, and from 7.2 to 14.8 degrees under the higher pathway.
Annual average temperatures in California have increased almost 3°F since the beginning of the 20th century (Figure 1), and 2015–2024 was the warmest decade on record. Death Valley experienced its all-time hottest month in July 2024, when the Furnace Creek Visitors Center recorded a monthly average temperature of 108.5°F. The 2020–2024 period saw the highest 5-year average and included the four highest annual values on record for both extremely hot days and very warm nights (Figures 2a and 2b). The number of extremely hot days shows no clear long-term, while the number of very warm nights has been increasing over the period of record (1930–2024). The number of cold nights has generally been near or below average since the late 1990s, although the 2020–2024 period was slightly above average (Figure 3).
Two graphs of the observed annual number of (a) extremely hot days and (b) very warm nights for California from 1930 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Panel A: Extremely Hot Days
Y-axis values range from 16 to 48 days. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 16.5 to 46.2 days. Five-year values also show variability and are mostly near or below the long-term average of 28.4 days between 1930 and 2004. An upward trend is evident since the 1990 to 1994 period. Since 2005, 5-year values are all above average except for the 2010 to 2014 period. The 1930 to 1934 period has the lowest 5-year value at 22.9 days, and the 2020 to 2024 period has the highest at 38.9 days.
Panel B: Very Warm Nights
Y-axis values range from 4 to 28 nights. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 5.9 to 24.9 nights. Five-year values also show variability as well as an upward trend across the entire period. Five-year values are all near or below the long-term average of 13.3 nights between 1930 and 1994 except for the 1935 to 1939 period. Since 1995, 5-year values are all near or above average. The 1930 to 1934 period has the lowest 5-year value at 8.6 nights, and the 2020 to 2024 period has the highest at 22.4 nights.
Graph of the observed annual number of cold nights for California from 1930 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from 2 to 18 nights. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 3.2 to 16.6 nights. Five-year values also show variability and are all above the long-term average of 9.7 nights between 1930 and 1994 except for the 1940 to 1944 and 1980 to 1984 periods, but they are all near or below average since 1995 except for the 2020 to 2024 period. The 1995 to 1999 period has the lowest 5-year value at 5.9 nights, and the 1930 to 1934, 1935 to 1939, and 1955 to 1959 periods have the highest at 11.8, 11.4, and 11.5 nights, respectively.
Statewide annual precipitation is highly variable from year to year, with totals ranging from a low of 7.9 inches in 2013 to a high of 42.5 inches in 1983 (Figure 4a). Winter precipitation, which accounts for about half of total annual precipitation, is also highly variable and shows no clear long-term trend (Figure 4b).
Two graphs of the observed total (a) annual and (b) winter precipitation for California from 1895 to 2024 and 1895–96 to 2023–24, respectively, as described in the caption.
Panel A: Total Annual Precipitation
Y-axis values range from 4 to 48 inches. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 7.9 to 42.5 inches. Five-year values also show variability and are all near or above the long-term average of 22.1 inches between 1895 and 1909, all below average between 1910 and 1934, and mostly near or above average between 1935 and 1984. Since 1985, 5-year values are all below average except for the 1995 to 1999 and 2015 to 2019 periods. The 1930 to 1934 and 1985 to 1989 periods have the lowest 5-year values at 18.12 and 18.14 inches, respectively, and the1980 to 1984 and 1995 to 1999 periods have the highest at 28.6 and 28.5 inches, respectively.
Panel B: Total Winter Precipitation
Y-axis values range from 0 to 28 inches. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 3.7 to 23.3 inches. Five-year values also show variability, with no clear trend, and are mostly near or below the long-term average of 11.5 inches across the entire period. Exceptions include the 1905 to 1909, 1940 to 1944, and 1995 to 1999 periods, which have the highest 5-year values at 14.8, 15.8, and 16.5 inches, respectively. The 1945 to 1949 period has the lowest 5-year value at 7.8 inches.
California is exposed to multiple climate hazards. One of the state's most serious climate hazards is extreme precipitation, which is highly variable from year-to-year. Unlike many areas of the United States, California and other southwestern states have not experienced an upward trend in extreme precipitation (Figure 5); however, multiple impactful events have occurred in recent years. Atmospheric rivers, a weather phenomenon in which a narrow band of very moist air is transported from tropical latitudes of the Pacific Ocean to the West Coast, are capable of producing very heavy rain and snow. Between December 26, 1996, and January 3, 1997, an atmospheric river impacted Northern California, with some weather stations reporting as much as 25 inches of rain. The rain, combined with unusually warm conditions, led to tremendous snowmelt, pushing Lake Tahoe to its highest level since 1917 and causing massive flooding in the Yosemite Valley and other areas. Flooding during the 2016–17 winter (the second wettest winter on record) caused more than $1 billion in losses and damaged the Oroville Dam spillway; however, the precipitation also recharged reservoirs depleted by years of drought. In February and March 2023, a series of storms dropped more than 100 inches of snow in the San Bernadino Mountains of Southern California, leaving many stranded in their homes for weeks and causing 12 deaths. In August 2023, the remnants of Hurricane Hilary, a Category 4 storm, brought high winds and more than 10 inches of rain to the mountains of Southern California, leading to flash flooding, debris flows, and damaged roadways; Death Valley set a new single-day precipitation record at 2.2 inches. In March 2024, a powerful storm brought 5 to 7 feet of snow and wind gust of over 150 mph to the Lake Tahoe area, stranding traffic on Interstate 80 overnight.
Graph of the observed annual number of 2-inch extreme precipitation events for California from 1930 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from 0.0 to 3.5 events. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0.2 to 2.9 events. Five-year values also show variability, with no clear trend, and are mostly near or below the long-term average of 1.2 events across the entire period. The 1930 to 1934 and 1945 to 1949 periods have the lowest 5-year values at 0.8 events each, and the 1980 to 1984 and 1995 to 1999 periods have the highest at 1.68 and 1.72 events, respectively.
Wildfires, a natural part of California's climate, have become larger, more intense, and more destructive in recent decades due to warmer temperatures, past fire management practices, and the development of homes and other structures in fire-prone areas. Strong downslope winds, such as the Santa Ana winds of Southern California and the Diablo winds of Northern California, are often associated with the most destructive wildfires because they can cause small fires to quickly burn out of control. In November 2018, Diablo winds knocked over powerlines in Butte County, helping spread the Camp Fire, which largely destroyed the town of Paradise. It was the deadliest fire in state history—killing 85 people—as well as the most destructive, destroying nearly 19,000 buildings. The year 2020 saw a record number of acres burned (Figure 6) as well as the largest fire in California's history—the August Complex, a lightning-sparked blaze that burned more than 1 million acres in Mendocino, Humbolt, and neighboring counties. The following year the Dixie Fire burned nearly a million acres across five counties in Northern California. The Eaton and Palisades Fires devastated several neighborhoods in Los Angeles County in January 2025, causing the deaths of 31 people and destroying more than 16,000 structures. The denuding of vegetation by wildfires increases the risks of debris flows and flooding when heavy rain occurs.
Time series of annual total area burned by wildfires in California from 1987 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from 0.0 to 4.5 million acres. Annual values range from a low of 44,200 acres in 1991 to a high of 4.3 million acres in 2020. Prior to 2007, the annual number of acres burned was always below 1.5 million acres. Since 2007, six years have values exceeding 1.5 million acres—2007, 2008, 2017, 2018, 2020, and 2021.
Drought is another serious climate hazard in California. Because snowpack plays an important role in the management of California's complex water system, some of the most impactful droughts have coincided with years of abnormally low snowpack accumulation during the winter months. The historical record indicates periodic prolonged wet and dry periods (Figure 7). Drought conditions can also be exacerbated by warm conditions. Record warmth in 2014 and 2015, in combination with multiple years of below-average precipitation (Figure 4a), led to one of California's most severe droughts. The state also experienced widespread extreme and exceptional drought (as defined by the US Drought Monitor) in 2021 and 2022.
Line graph of the California Palmer Drought Severity Index for the years 1000 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values are divided into dry and wet categories, ranging from 0 to negative 8 (dry) and 0 to positive 8 (wet). Annual values show variability and range from negative 6.8 to positive 6.5. Annual values for most years fall between negative 2 and positive 2, but values reaching negative 3 and positive 3 are common. The 20-year running average also shows variability, with values ranging from negative 1.8 to positive 0.9. Since the beginning of the modern era (red line), the running average is generally high in the positive range until the late 1910s, then fluctuates above and below 0 until the 1990s. Since then, the running average shows a downward trend, reaching a low of negative 1.8 in 2014.
California is the most agriculturally productive US state. Its agricultural industry relies heavily on reservoir water supplied by snowmelt and rainfall runoff. Yearly variations in snowpack depths, and the resulting snowmelt that feeds a network of reservoirs, have implications for water availability. The snow line (the average lowest elevation at which snow falls) has also risen significantly over the past 70 years, leading to less water being available from the snowpack. Spring snowpack at Donner Summit reached record-low levels in 2014, which were eclipsed in 2015 by a remarkably low April 1 snow water equivalent (SWE), with measurable snowpack of only 0.5 inches (Figure 8). The same drought contributed to near-record-low storage levels in the Shasta Dam Reservoir in 2014 (Figure 9). Drought in 2021 reduced the reservoir to even lower levels. These low levels forced many agricultural producers to turn to pumping groundwater, which caused large drops in groundwater levels in some areas of the Central Valley. However, widespread storms in the winter of 2022–23 left California with one of the deepest statewide March snowpacks ever recorded, at more than double the average amount, with some areas of the Sierra Nevada breaking SWE records going back more than 90 years. This snowpack relieved the drought conditions that had afflicted the state in the previous two years.
Time series of the annual variations in the April 1 snow water equivalent (SWE) at Donner Summit, California, from 1910 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from 0 to 100 inches. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0.5 in 2015 to 87.2 inches in 1983. Annual values are mostly between 20 and 50 inches across the entire period. Record-high values of more than 80 inches occurred in 1952 and 1983, and record-low levels of less than 10 inches occurred in 1963, 1988, 2014, and 2015.
Monthly time series of the average water storage levels in the Shasta Dam Reservoir, California, from September 1953 to December 2024 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from 0 to 5 million acre feet. Values mostly range between 3 and 4.5 million acre feet across the period, with the exception of five dry periods: 1976–1977, 1990–1992, 2008–2009, 2013–2015, and 2021–2022.
Under the intermediate and higher emissions pathways, historically unprecedented warming is projected during this century (Figure 1). Even under the lower emissions pathway, some projections show annual average temperatures exceeding historical levels by the middle of the century. However, projections for all three pathways show a large range of potential temperature increases, and some projections for the lower pathway are comparable to recent observed values. Overall, warming will lead to increased heat wave intensity but decreased cold wave intensity. Future heat waves are a concern for Los Angeles and other urban areas. Heat absorbed and emitted by buildings and pavement, as well as other aspects of urban environments, makes cities even warmer than the surrounding countryside, a phenomenon known as the urban heat island effect. Extreme heat could also particularly stress coastal communities, such as San Francisco, that are rarely exposed to extreme high temperatures and therefore are not well adapted to them. Rural areas are at risk too, especially farming communities in the hot Central and Imperial Valleys of California.
Rising temperatures are expected to continue to raise the snow line and increase the likelihood that precipitation falls as rain rather than snow. This would reduce water storage in the snowpack, particularly at those lower mountain elevations that are now on the margins of reliable snowpack accumulation. Higher spring temperatures are also expected to result in earlier melting of the snowpack. This shift in snowmelt timing has critical implications for California's water supply because of flood-control rules requiring that water be allowed to flow downstream and prohibiting the storage of water in reservoirs for use in the dry season. A new water management strategy called Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations is being tested to address such challenges.
Under the intermediate emissions pathway, projections indicate increases in total annual precipitation by midcentury in Central and Northern California and decreases in Southern California; however, these changes are not statistically significant (Figure 10). There is similar uncertainty in projections for seasonal precipitation, although models generally indicate decreases across most of the state for spring and fall and increases across most of the state for summer and winter.
Map of the contiguous United States showing the projected changes in total annual precipitation by the middle of this century as described in the caption. The state of California is outlined in black.
Legend values range from less than negative 10 to greater than positive 15 percent. Note: unless otherwise specified, projected values are not statistically significant.
California
Central and Northern California are projected to see increases in total annual precipitation of up to 5 percent, while Southern California is expected to see decreases of up to 5 percent.
Contiguous US
Projected increases in total annual precipitation are as follows: up to 5 percent for most of the Southeast, as well as the central Midwest, central Great Plains, central West, and Northwest; and 5 to 10 percent for all of the Northeast, as well as portions of the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, northern Midwest, northern Great Plains, and Pacific Northwest, with statistically significant increases in the 5 to 10 percent range for the Northeast, northeastern Midwest, and portions of the northern Great Plains and Pacific Northwest.
Projected decreases of up to 5 percent are expected across most of Texas, New Mexico, and Arizona, as well as southern California.
Naturally occurring droughts are expected to become more intense due to higher temperatures and the associated increase in evaporation rates and soil moisture loss during dry spells, further reducing streamflow and water supplies. As a result, wildfires are projected to become more frequent and severe.
California is at considerable risk from sea level rise. On average, the state experienced about 3 inches of sea level rise between 1970 and 2020—compared to 6 inches for the contiguous US as a whole—and projections under the Intermediate sea level scenario show additional increases of about 6 inches by 2050 and 1.1 feet by 2070 (Figure 11). Across the five scenarios shown in Figure 11, the projected increases from 2020 to 2070 range from about 0.5–3 feet. Rising sea levels pose a threat to the state's ecosystems, coastal communities, and infrastructure, especially roads and water systems. The Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta is the hub of California's water supply system. Water from reservoirs in Northern California flows through the delta, where it is then pumped into aqueducts to Central and Southern California. As a result of sea level rise, salty ocean water is expected to intrude into the delta through San Francisco Bay, requiring increased releases of water from upstream reservoirs to keep the salty water out of the delta. This, in turn, would reduce water availability.
Two time series of observed and projected relative sea level change for (a) the contiguous US and (b) California from 1970 to 2070 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from negative 1 to positive 4 feet for both graphs. Legends in both graphs denote sources of historical data and scenarios for projections. Line colors for historical data are black for tide gauge data and orange for satellite data. Line and shading colors for projections based on five scenarios are as follows: light blue, Low; medium blue, Intermediate-Low; dark blue, Intermediate; yellow, Intermediate-High; and dark orange, High.
Panel A: Contiguous US
Tide gauge and satellite data generally show increases but with year-to-year variability. Projected data show increases under all scenarios. Tide gauge values range from a minimum of negative 0.3 feet in 1976 to a maximum of positive 0.4 feet in 2023. Satellite values range from a minimum of 0.0 feet in 1994 to a maximum of 0.4 feet in 2023. Projected sea level median values (lines) for the Low scenario range from 0.3 feet in 2020 to 1.1 feet in 2070, compared to 0.4 feet in 2020 to 3.1 feet in 2070 for the High scenario. Likely ranges (shading) become wider over the period shown. The range of likely values in 2070 for each of the five scenarios are as follows: Low scenario, from 0.9 to 1.4 feet; Intermediate-Low, 1.2 to 1.7 feet; Intermediate, 1.5 to 2.2 feet; Intermediate-High, 1.8 to 3.1 feet; and High, 2.4 to 3.8 feet.
Panel B: California
All historical and future scenario lines show increases lower than those in the contiguous US graph. Tide gauge values range from a minimum of negative 0.3 feet in 1975 to a maximum of positive 0.3 feet in 1983. Satellite values range from a minimum of negative 0.1 feet in 1999 to a maximum of positive 0.3 feet in 2015. Projected sea level median values (lines) for the Low scenario range from 0.2 feet in 2020 to 0.6 feet in 2070, compared to 0.2 feet in 2020 to 2.8 feet in 2070 for the High scenario. Likely ranges (shading) become wider over the period shown. The range of likely values in 2070 for each of the five scenarios are as follows: Low scenario, from 0.5 to 0.8 feet; Intermediate-Low, 0.8 to 1.1 feet; Intermediate, 1.0 to 1.7 feet; Intermediate-High, 1.4 to 2.7 feet; and High, 2.1 to 3.4 feet.
Sea level rise has caused an increase in high-tide floods associated with nuisance-level impacts, which are occurring more frequently, even on sunny days. High-tide flooding occurs when one or more factors—sea level rise, winds, changes in ocean currents, full or new moons—push water levels above the normal high-tide mark. These events can damage infrastructure, cause road closures, and overwhelm storm drains. High-tide flooding has increased in all US coastal areas, with more rapid increases along the East and Gulf Coasts, and is likely to occur more frequently in California as global and local sea levels continue to rise. High-tide flood days (Figure 12) have become more common in recent decades in Southern California, with at least one event in most years since 1982 at La Jolla; however, these events are currently less common in Northern California (e.g., San Francisco). Under both the Intermediate-Low and Intermediate scenarios, high-tide floods are projected to occur much more frequently in future years in both regions.
Two sets of graphs of the observed and projected annual number of high-tide flood days at two locations in California: (a) La Jolla, from 1925 to 2100 and (b) San Francisco from 1920 to 2100 (top). Magnified views of both panels (bottom) show the observed data for the periods (a) 1925 to 2024 and (b) 1920 to 1924 as described in the caption.
A legend shows annual observations (orange bars) and projected 19-year averages (two-colored bars) for the Intermediate-Low (medium blue) and Intermediate (dark blue) sea level scenarios.
Panel A: La Jolla
Bottom
Y-axis labels for the magnified view range from 0 to 5 days per year. Following the first recorded event in 1968, there was a gap of 13 years until the next recorded event. The longest streak of consecutive years with high-tide flooding was 1990 to 1994. Annual values range from 0 to 8, with a record high of 8 days in 2008 and 2015.
Top
Y-axis labels range from 0 to 350 days, with a horizontal dashed gray line indicating 365 days. La Jolla is projected to experience 20 to 30 high-tide flood days per year by 2050 under the Intermediate-Low and Intermediate scenarios, respectively, and 115 to 320 days by 2100.
Panel B: San Francisco
Bottom
Y-axis labels for the magnified view range from 0 to 5 days per year. Following the first recorded event in 1968, high-tide flooding was sporadic, often with gaps of 2 to 6 years between events and annual values mostly below 4 days. Since 2015, high-tide flooding occurred only once, in 2024. The record high of 6 days occurred in 1982.
Top
Y-axis labels range from 0 to 350 days, with a horizontal dashed gray line indicating 365 days. San Francisco is projected to experience 6 to 10 high-tide flood days per year by 2050 under the Intermediate-Low and Intermediate scenarios, respectively, and 90 to 335 days by 2100.
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