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NOAA National Centers
for Environmental Information

State Climate Summaries 2022

FLORIDA

Key Messages   Narrative   Downloads  

Three Roseate Spoonbills at J. N. 'Ding' Darling National Wildlife Refuge on Sanibel Island, Florida
Photo by Diana Robinson
License: CC BY-NC-ND

Key Message 1

Temperatures in Florida have risen more than 2°F since the beginning of the 20th century. Under a higher emissions pathway, historically unprecedented warming is projected during this century. Increases in the rate of soil moisture loss due to rising temperatures will likely increase the intensity of naturally occurring droughts.

Key Message 2

The number of landfalling hurricanes in Florida is highly variable from year to year. Hurricane rainfall rates are projected to increase as the climate continues to warm.

Key Message 3

Global sea level is projected to rise, with a likely range of 1–4 feet by 2100, and will likely increase the frequency of nuisance-level coastal flooding and contribute to saltwater contamination of coastal groundwater reservoirs.

South Beach
Photo by Thomas Hawk
License: CC BY-NC

FLORIDA

Due to its location at subtropical latitudes and adjacent to the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic, Florida has a climate characterized by hot, humid summers and mild winters. The Bermuda High, a semipermanent high-pressure system off the Atlantic coast, plays an important role in the climate of the state, particularly in the summer. Typically, the Bermuda High draws moisture northward or westward from the Atlantic Ocean, causing warm and moist summers with frequent thunderstorms in the afternoons and evenings. Average (1991–2020 normals) temperatures in January range from the lower 50s (°F) in the northern portion of the state to the upper 60s (°F) in the south. During July, typically the hottest month of the year, average temperatures in the low 80s (°F) are prevalent throughout the state. Statewide annual average (1895–2020) precipitation is 53.7 inches, with more precipitation falling during the warmer months of June through September.

   

Figure 1

Observed and Projected Temperature Change
Time series of observed and projected temperature change (in degrees Fahrenheit) for Florida from 1900 to 2100 as described in the caption. Y-axis values range from minus 2.7 to positive 12.1 degrees. Observed annual temperature change from 1900 to 2020 shows variability and ranges from minus 2.0 to positive 3.4 degrees. By the end of the century, projected increases in temperature range from 2.3 to 6.3 degrees under the lower emissions pathway and from 5.8 to 11.4 degrees under the higher pathway.
Figure 1: Observed and projected changes (compared to the 1901–1960 average) in near-surface air temperature for Florida. Observed data are for 1900–2020. Projected changes for 2006–2100 are from global climate models for two possible futures: one in which greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase (higher emissions) and another in which greenhouse gas emissions increase at a slower rate (lower emissions). Temperatures in Florida (orange line) have risen more than 2°F since the beginning of the 20th century. Shading indicates the range of annual temperatures from the set of models. Observed temperatures are generally within the envelope of model simulations of the historical period (gray shading). Historically unprecedented warming is projected during this century. Less warming is expected under a lower emissions future (the coldest end-of-century projections being about 2°F warmer than the historical average; green shading) and more warming under a higher emissions future (the hottest end-of-century projections being about 8°F warmer than the hottest year in the historical record; red shading). Sources: CISESS and NOAA NCEI.

Temperatures in Florida have risen more than 2°F since the beginning of the 20th century (Figure 1). Although there has been a general lack of daytime warming (Figure 2a), nighttime warmth has increased dramatically since 1995 (Figure 3); the number of very warm nights during the 2015 to 2020 period was more than double the numbers of the mid-20th century (1930–1944). While Florida typically experiences far fewer days with temperatures exceeding 100°F than most other southern states, it is the most humid state in the Nation. Extended periods of extreme heat, especially when combined with high humidity, can result in heat-related illness among vulnerable populations and place excess stress on agricultural production, water supplies, and energy generation.

Figure 2

   

a)

Observed Number of Very Hot Days
Graph of the observed annual number of very hot days for Florida from 1900 to 2020 as described in the caption. Y-axis values range from 0 to 50 days. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from about 2 to 43 days. Multiyear values also show variability and are mostly near or above the long-term average of 16 days between 1900 and 1964, all below average between 1965 and 1979, and all near or above average between 1980 and 1999. Since 2000, multiyear values are all near or below average but trending upward. The 2000 to 2004 period has the lowest multiyear value and the 1940 to 1944 period the highest.
   

b)

Observed Numbers of Freezing Nights
Graph of the observed annual number of freezing nights for Florida from 1900 to 2020 as described in the caption. Y-axis values range from 0 to 20 nights. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from about 1 to 19 nights. Multiyear values also show variability and are mostly near or below the long-term average of 5.8 nights between 1900 and 1954, all near or above average between 1955 and 1989, and mostly below average since 1990. The 2015 to 2020 period has the lowest multiyear value and the 1975 to 1979 period the highest.
   

c)

Observed Annual Precipitation
Graph of the observed total annual precipitation for Florida from 1895 to 2020 as described in the caption. Y-axis values range from 40 to 75 inches. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from about 40 to 73 inches. Multiyear values also show variability and are mostly near or below the long-term average of 53.7 inches across the entire period. One notable exception is the 1945 to 1949 period, which is well above average and has the highest multiyear value. The 2005 to 2009 period has the lowest multiyear value.
   

d)

Total Hurricane Events in Florida
Graph of the total number of hurricane events for Florida from 1900 to 2020 as described in the caption. Y-axis values range from 0 to 9 events. Multiyear values show variability and range from 0 to 8 events. The most active multiyear periods are 1915 to 1919, 1925 to 1929, and 1945 to 1949, with a total of 6, 8, and 8 events, respectively. Zero events occurred during the 1980 to 1984 and 2010 to 2014 periods.

Figure 2: Observed (a) annual number of very hot days (maximum temperature of 95ºF or higher), (b) annual number of freezing nights (minimum temperature of 32ºF or lower), (c) total annual precipitation, and (d) total number of hurricane events (wind speeds reaching hurricane strength somewhere in the state) for Florida from (a, b, d) 1900 to 2020 and (c) 1895 to 2020. In Figures 2a, 2b, and 2c, dots show annual values, bars show averages over 5-year periods (last bar is a 6-year average), and the horizontal black lines show the long-term (entire period) averages: (a) 16 days, (b) 5.8 nights, (c) 53.7 inches. In Figure 2d, bars show totals over 5-year periods (last bar is a 6-year total). Since 2000, the number of very hot days has been below average. The number of freezing nights has generally been below average since 1990. Total annual precipitation reached its lowest level during the 2005–2009 period, coinciding with an increase in drought and wildfires. Hurricane strikes occur frequently along the Florida coast, with most multiyear periods experiencing at least 3 hurricanes. Some years are more active than others. For example, following a very active 2004 (4 events) and 2005 (5 events), there were no landfalling hurricanes in Florida from 2006 to 2015. Sources: (a, b, c) CISESS and NOAA NCEI; (d) NOAA Hurricane Research Division. Data: (a, b) GHCN-Daily from 13 long-term stations; (c) nClimDiv.

   
Observed Number of Very Warm Nights
Graph of the observed annual number of very warm nights for Florida from 1900 to 2020 as described in the caption. Y-axis values range from 0 to 80 nights. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from about 5 to 71 nights. Multiyear values also show variability and are all below the long-term average of 21 nights between 1900 and 1924, all near or slightly above average between 1925 and 1949, and all below average between 1950 and 1994. Since 1995, multiyear values are all above or well above average and trending upward. The 1910 to 1914 and 1970 to 1974 periods have the lowest multiyear values, and the 2015 to 2020 period, which is well above average, has the highest, with a multiyear value more than twice the long-term average.
Figure 3: Observed annual number of very warm nights (minimum temperature of 75°F or higher) for Florida from 1900 to 2020. Dots show annual values. Bars show averages over 5-year periods (last bar is a 6-year average). The horizontal black line shows the long-term (entire period) average of 21 nights. The number of very warm nights has risen substantially since 1995. The 2015 to 2020 multiyear average is more than double the 1930–1934 multiyear average. Sources: CISESS and NOAA NCEI. Data: GHCN-Daily from 13 long-term stations.

During the cold season, extratropical cyclones and associated fronts are responsible for significant day-to-day variability in the weather. While the temperatures associated with cold waves are warmer than in areas to the north, they can have major impacts on those sectors adapted to the generally mild climate, such as agriculture. For example, several strong freezes since the beginning of the 19th century have gradually forced the citrus and other industries (e.g., winter vegetables and sugarcane) to migrate from North Florida into South Florida. The annual average (1991–2020) number of freezing nights varies from greater than 20 in the far northern part of the state to 0 in the south (Figure 4). Throughout 80 years of record keeping, Miami International Airport has dropped below freezing only 7 times and not once since 1989. Subfreezing air sometimes reaches as far south as Central Florida, causing major damage to citrus crops. A severe cold outbreak lasting more than a week in January 2010 resulted in more than $200 million in losses to the Florida citrus industry. There is no long-term trend in the number of freezing nights, but there has been a decrease from the high numbers of the late 1970s (Figure 2b).

   
Observed Number of Freezing Nights for the Southeast and Florida (1991-2020)
A map of the Southeast region (left; showing Virginia, Kentucky, North Carolina, Tennessee, Arkansas, South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Florida) and a map of the state of Florida (right), both showing the observed annual average number of freezing nights from 1991 to 2020 as described in the caption. Annual values range from 0 to greater than 120.1 nights for the Southeast region and from 0 to greater than 20.1 nights for Florida. For the Southeast, the highest values ranging from 100.1 to greater than 120.1 nights are seen in the high-elevation regions of Virginia, Kentucky, North Carolina, and Tennessee; and the lowest values ranging from 0 to 40 nights are seen along the coastal regions of South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. Values for the remainder of the Southeast range from 40.1 to 100 nights. For Florida, the highest values ranging from 10.1 to greater than 20.1 nights are seen in the northernmost portion of the state, and the lowest values ranging from 0 to 1.0 nights are seen in the southernmost portion. Values for the remainder of Florida range from 1.1 to 10.0 nights.
Figure 4: Observed annual average (1991–2020) number of freezing nights (minimum temperature of 32°F or lower) for the Southeast region (left) and Florida (right, with a different scale). Source: CISESS.

Total annual precipitation varies widely from year to year (Figure 2c). The driest year on record was 2000, with 40.3 inches of precipitation, and the wettest was 1947, with 72.9 inches. The driest consecutive 5-year interval was 2006–2010, with an average of 47.9 inches per year, and the wettest was 1945–1949, with an average of 60.2 inches per year. Historically, the number of 4-inch extreme precipitation events has been highly variable but has been near or above average since 1995 (Figure 5). Two notable extreme precipitation events occurred in 2014. During January 9–10, torrential rain fell in the West Palm Beach area, with more than 10 inches at Fort Pierce and more than 14 inches at Sun Valley. On April 29 in the Panhandle, more than 15 inches fell in Pensacola and about 20 inches in Milton. Drought is a persistent climate threat for Florida, resulting in water supply reductions, disruptions to agriculture, and increased risk of wildfires. In every decade since 1900, the state has been impacted by at least one severe and widespread drought.

   
Observed Number of 4-Inch Extreme Precipitation Events
Graph of the observed annual number of 4-inch extreme precipitation for Florida from 1900 to 2020 as described in the caption. Y-axis values range from 0 to 2.0 days. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0 to 1.6 days. Multiyear values also show variability and are mostly near or below the long-term average of 0.5 days between 1900 and 1944, mostly above average between 1945 and 1974, and all below average between 1975 and 1994. Since 1995, multiyear values are all near or above average. The 1990 to 1994 period has the lowest multiyear value and the 1945 to 1949 and 1950 to 1954 periods the highest.
Figure 5: Observed annual number of 4-inch extreme precipitation events (days with precipitation of 4 inches or more) for Florida from 1900 to 2020. Dots show annual values. Bars show averages over 5-year periods (last bar is a 6-year average). The horizontal black line shows the long-term (entire period) average of 0.5 days. A typical station experiences an event about once every 2 years. The number of 4-inch extreme precipitation events shows wide variability but has been near or above average since 1995. Sources: CISESS and NOAA NCEI. Data: GHCN-Daily from 15 long-term stations.

Thunderstorms are ubiquitous during the summer. Florida experiences the highest annual number of thunderstorms in the United States. Hurricanes and intense coastal storms are the most serious weather threats. Hurricane strikes occur frequently along the Florida coast, with hurricane-force winds impacting the state an average of 3 times every 5 years (Figure 2d). In 2018, Hurricane Michael (Category 5) struck the Panhandle, nearly destroying Mexico Beach and causing extensive damage to Panama City and Tyndall Air Force Base and more than $20 billion in damages. Michael was the strongest hurricane on record to make landfall along the Florida Panhandle. In 2017, Hurricane Irma (Category 4) made landfall at Cudjoe Key, then crossed over the Gulf of Mexico and made landfall again in the Florida Panhandle. The Florida Keys were heavily impacted, and near-historic levels of storm surge caused significant coastal flooding in Jacksonville.

Under a higher emissions pathway, historically unprecedented warming is projected during this century (Figure 1). Even under a lower emissions pathway, annual average temperatures are projected to most likely exceed historical record levels by the middle of the century. However, a large range of temperature increases is projected under both pathways, and under the lower pathway, a few projections are only slightly warmer than historical records. By 2050, most of the state is projected to see an increase of more than 50 days with temperatures of 95°F or higher. The summer heat index is projected to increase by 8° to 15°F, the largest escalation in the Nation.

Increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation and drought are projected. Projected changes in summer precipitation are uncertain (Figure 6); however, even if precipitation remains constant, higher temperatures will increase the rate of soil moisture loss and likely lead to more intense droughts. Decreased water availability, exacerbated by population growth and land-use change, will continue to increase competition for water and affect the region’s economy and unique ecosystems. Increasing drought intensity will likely trigger more frequent wildfire events. Typically, the state exhibits a peak in wildfire activity from January to mid-June, a period when tropical moisture is reduced and occasional cold fronts usher in dry, windy conditions. In 2020, Florida experienced 2,381 wildfires, ranking fifth in the Nation for number of wildfires; a total of 99,413 acres burned. While the annual frequency of hurricanes has remained relatively stable throughout the 20th and early 21st centuries (Figure 2d), hurricane rainfall is expected to increase for Florida as the climate continues to warm.

   
Projected Change in Summer Precipitation
Map of the contiguous United States showing the projected changes in total summer precipitation by the middle of this century as described in the caption. Values range from less than minus 20 to greater than positive 15 percent. Summer precipitation is projected to increase along the east coast and decrease across most of the rest of the country, particularly in Oregon and California. Statistically significant increases are projected for southeastern North Carolina and northern Maine. The projected change in summer precipitation is uncertain for some areas in the north-central United States, New Mexico, and northern Florida. Statistically significant decreases are projected for portions of the central United States. A decrease of 0 to 5 percent is projected for most of central Florida and the western portion of the panhandle, and a decrease of 5 to 10 percent is projected for south Florida. A small portion of central Florida is expected to see an increase of 0 to 5 percent, while the direction of change is unclear for the remainder of the state.
Figure 6: Projected changes in total summer (June–August) precipitation (%) for the middle of the 21st century compared to the late 20th century under a higher emissions pathway. Whited-out areas indicate that the climate models are uncertain about the direction of change. Hatching represents areas where the majority of climate models indicate a statistically significant change. Summer precipitation projections are uncertain for Florida, as well as for a larger part of the Southeast. Sources: CISESS and NEMAC. Data: CMIP5.

Since 1900, global average sea level has risen by about 7–8 inches. It is projected to rise another 1–8 feet, with a likely range of 1–4 feet, by 2100 as a result of both past and future emissions from human activities (Figure 7). Sea level rise has caused an increase in tidal floods associated with nuisance-level impacts. Nuisance floods are events in which water levels exceed the local threshold (set by NOAA’s National Weather Service) for minor impacts. These events can damage infrastructure, cause road closures, and overwhelm storm drains. Tidal flood days (all days exceeding the nuisance-level threshold) remain rare at Key West, but as global sea level rises, they are projected to become a common occurrence (Figure 8). Increased inland flooding during heavy precipitation events in low-lying coastal areas is a threat, because mere inches of sea level rise have the potential to impair the capacity of stormwater drainage systems to empty into the ocean. Sea level rise presents major challenges to South Florida’s existing coastal water management system due to a combination of increasingly urbanized areas, aging flood control facilities, flat topography, and permeable limestone aquifers. Increases in nuisance-level coastal flooding and saltwater contamination of coastal groundwater reservoirs are likely consequences of sea level rise.

   
Observed and Projected Change in Global Sea Level
Line graph of observed and projected change in global mean sea level from 1800 to 2100 as described in the caption. Y-axis values are labeled from 0 to 8 feet. The historical line shows that observed sea level from 1800 to 1900 was relatively constant but increased by 7 to 8 inches by 2015. Six lines of increasing steepness extend from the historical line, representing the six projected sea level rise scenarios from Low (a half foot) to Extreme (8 feet). Two box and whisker plots to the right of the x-axis show the likely and possible ranges of sea level rise under lower (left) and higher (right) emissions scenarios.
Figure 7: Global mean sea level (GMSL) change from 1800 to 2100. Projections include the six U.S. Interagency Sea Level Rise Task Force GMSL scenarios (Low, navy blue; Intermediate-Low, royal blue; Intermediate, cyan; Intermediate-High, green; High, orange; and Extreme, red curves) relative to historical geological, tide gauge, and satellite altimeter GMSL reconstructions from 1800–2015 (black and magenta lines) and the very likely ranges in 2100 under both lower and higher emissions futures (teal and dark red boxes). Global sea level rise projections range from 1 to 8 feet by 2100, with a likely range of 1 to 4 feet. Source: adapted from Sweet et al. 2017.
   
Observed and Projected Annual Number of Tidal Floods for Key West, FL
Graph of the observed and projected annual number of tidal flood days at Key West, Florida (top panel) from 1920 to 2100 as described in the caption. The bottom panel is a magnified view of the observed data. In the top panel, y-axis values range from 0 to 400 days, with a dashed line indicating the maximum possible number of tidal flood days per year (365). In the bottom panel, y-axis labels range from 0 to 4 days, and observed values range from 0 to 2 days. Since the first recorded event in 1944, tidal flooding has been rare, with 2 events recorded in 1944, and 1 event each in 1965, 2005, and 2017. Key West is projected to experience about 15 to 95 days by 2050 under the Intermediate-Low and Intermediate scenarios, respectively, and about 230 to 365 days by 2100.
Figure 8: Number of tidal flood days per year at Key West, Florida, for the observed record (1920–2020; orange bars) and projections for two NOAA (2017) sea level rise scenarios (2021–2100): Intermediate (dark blue bars) and Intermediate-Low (light blue bars). The NOAA (2017) scenarios are based on local projections of the GMSL scenarios shown in Figure 7. Sea level rise has caused a gradual increase in tidal floods associated with nuisance-level impacts. The greatest number of tidal flood days (all days exceeding the nuisance-level threshold) occurred in 1944 at Key West. Projected increases are large even under the Intermediate-Low scenario. Under the Intermediate scenario, tidal flooding is projected to occur every day of the year by the end of the century. Additional information on tidal flooding observations and scenarios is available online at https://statesummaries.ncics.org/technicaldetails. Sources: CISESS and NOAA NOS.

Details on observations and projections are available on the Technical Details and Additional Information page.

Lead Authors
Jennifer Runkle, Cooperative Institute for Satellite Earth System Studies (CISESS)
Kenneth E. Kunkel, Cooperative Institute for Satellite Earth System Studies (CISESS)
Contributing Authors
Sarah M. Champion, Cooperative Institute for Satellite Earth System Studies (CISESS)
Rebekah Frankson, Cooperative Institute for Satellite Earth System Studies (CISESS)
Brooke C. Stewart, Cooperative Institute for Satellite Earth System Studies (CISESS)
William Sweet, NOAA National Ocean Service
Sandra Rayne, NOAA Southeast Regional Climate Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Recommended Citation
Runkle, J., K.E. Kunkel, S.M. Champion, R. Frankson, B.C. Stewart, W. Sweet, and S. Rayne, 2022: Florida State Climate Summary 2022. NOAA Technical Report NESDIS 150-FL. NOAA/NESDIS, Silver Spring, MD, 5 pp.

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