Hawaiʻi is located in the tropics, and almost half of the state's land area is within 5 miles of the ocean, which provides a moderating effect on the climate. August is the warmest month, with a statewide average temperature of about 69°F, while the coldest month, February, averages about 63°F (1991–2020 averages). Large geographical differences in temperature occur due to the state's varied elevations. Low-lying coastal areas on the leeward side of the islands are generally the warmest locations, with annual average temperatures of more than 75°F and summer high temperatures in the high 80s. The coldest temperatures are observed on the mountain peaks of Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa, where annual average temperatures are below 50°F and low temperatures can reach less than 20°F. Hawaiʻi, however, is the only US state to have never recorded temperatures below 0°F and is tied with Alaska for the lowest record high temperature of any state at 100°F.
Time series of observed and projected temperature change (in degrees Fahrenheit) for Hawaiʻi from 1950 to 2100 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from negative 2 to positive 12 degrees. Observed annual temperatures from 1900 to 2024 show variability and range from negative 1.9 to positive 2.7 degrees. By the end of the century, projected increases in temperature range from 0.7 to 4.8 degrees under the lower emissions pathway, from 2.0 to 6.3 degrees under the intermediate pathway, and from 4.6 to 10.9 degrees under the higher pathway.
Since 1950, annual average temperatures across the Hawaiian Islands have risen by more than 2°F, with a sharp increase in warming over the last decade and a half (Figure 1). Temperatures in Honolulu have increased by 2.6°F since 1950 and have consistently been above the 1951–1980 average since 1976 (Figure 2). The rate of temperature increase is greatest at high elevations, far exceeding the global average rate of change. Statewide, the number of hot days has mostly been above average since the early 2010s (Figure 3a), and the number of very warm nights has been consistently above average since 2014 (Figure 3b). The annual number of days below freezing is decreasing over time, as is the daily temperature range, largely due to nighttime warming. Historically, temperatures in Hawaiʻi have been strongly associated with long-term cycles related to atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Basin. However, since the 1970s, the warming trend has mostly been driven by more local atmospheric changes, specifically a decrease in the frequency of trade winds (steady, persistent northeasterly winds) and an increasing occurrence of ocean temperature inversions (a layer above the surface where temperature increases with height).
Line graph of observed changes in annual average near-surface air temperature for five Hawaiian reporting stations from 1950 to 2024 as described in the caption. Data for Kahului begin in 1955.
Y-axis values range from negative 4 to positive 4 degrees Fahrenheit. Annual values show variability and range from a low of 2.2 degrees below the 1951 to 1980 average for Hilo in 1955 to a high of 3.4 degrees above average for Hoʻolehua in 2018. All five stations show variability but exhibit the same upward trend across the entire period. Values are mostly near or below average prior to 1965, mostly 0 to 2 degrees above average between 1966 and 2013, and mostly 1 to 3 degrees above average since 2014.
Two graphs of the observed annual number of (a) hot days and (b) very warm nights for Hawaiʻi from 1950 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Panel A: Hot Days
Y-axis values for hot days range from 0 to 60 days. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0 to 49.3 days. Five-year values also show variability and are all near or below the long-term average of 5.6 days between 1950 and 2019 except for the 1980 to 1984 and 1995 to 1994 periods, but they are above average since 2015. The 1950 to 1954, 1955 to 1959, and 1960 to 1964 periods have the lowest 5-year values at 0.5, 1.1, and 0.8 days, respectively, and the 2015 to 2019 and 2020 to 2024 periods have the highest at 20.2 and 11.9 days, respectively
Panel B: Very Warm Nights
Y-axis values for very warm nights range from 0 to 100 nights. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 1.4 to 80.0 nights. Five-year values also show variability and are all below the long-term average of 28.6 nights between 1950 and 1979 and all near or above average between 1980 and 2009. The 2010 to 2014 period is below average, but the 2015 to 2019 and 2020 to 2024 periods are above average. The 1950 to 1954 and 1955 to 1959 periods have the lowest 5-year values at 11.8 and 12.1 nights, respectively, and the 2015 to 2019 and 2020 to 2024 periods have the highest at 61.4 and 43.4 nights, respectively.
Precipitation varies greatly according to season and location. Hawaiʻi experiences a dry season from May through October, when warm, steady trade winds cause light to moderate showers. The wet season runs from November through April, with weaker and less frequent trade winds and a significant amount of rain from midlatitude storms. The interaction of mountainous terrain, persistent trade winds, heating and cooling of the land, and other factors result in dramatic differences in rainfall over short distances. Total annual precipitation sometimes exceeds 300 inches along the windward slopes of mountains, while it averages less than 20 inches in leeward coastal areas and on the highest mountain slopes (1991–2020 averages). Snow is generally limited to the highest mountain peaks.
Despite great spatial variability in precipitation amounts across the islands, annual rainfall has decreased throughout the island chain, particularly during recent years in the wet season. A persistent dry pattern has been in place since 2007, with wet-season precipitation being below average for 15 of the last 19 years and near-average precipitation observed in the remaining 4 years (Figure 4). Hawaiʻi historically experienced drier-than-normal conditions during the El Niño wet season and wetter-than-normal conditions during the La Niña wet season. Since the early 1980s, however, La Niña events often no longer bring adequate rainfall during the wet season to offset dry spells and relieve drought. Moreover, El Niño events have increased in duration and intensity. The Island of O'ahu has experienced the largest significant long-term decreases in annual rainfall. Among five major reporting stations, Honolulu recorded the greatest decline across the period of record, with annual rainfall totals decreasing by more than 50% between 1950 and 2024 (Figure 5). In terms of absolute change, however, Hilo—one of the wettest cities in the United States—recorded the greatest decrease of around 19 inches over that same period (compared to 12 inches for Honolulu). An increase in the frequency of the trade wind inversion is also linked to a decrease in precipitation at high elevations. The number of 3-inch extreme precipitation events has mostly been near or below average since the early 1990s (Figure 6). Regionally, extreme precipitation events have generally become less frequent across Hawaiʻi, with notable downward trends seen for many locations on the leeward sides of the islands as well as the windward locations of Hilo and Līhuʻe.
Graph of annual changes in wet-season precipitation for Hawaiʻi from 1951 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from negative 1.5 to positive 2.0. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from negative 1.1 in 1978 to positive 1.85 in 1969. There is an overall decreasing trend, and all but three years have been below average since 2007.
Graph of observed changes in total annual precipitation for five Hawaiian reporting stations from 1950 to 2024 as described in the caption. Data for Kahului begin in 1955.
Y-axis values range from negative 100 to positive 120 percent. Annual values show large year-to-year variability and range from a low of minus 81 percent for Honolulu in 1998 to a high of 113 percent for Kahului in 1989. Trends for the five stations generally mirror each other across the entire period, with annual ranges mostly between about minus 40 and plus 40 percent. All five stations exhibit a decreasing trend across the entire period.
Graph of the observed annual number of 3-inch extreme precipitation events for Hawaiʻi from 1950 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from 0 to 10 events. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0.6 to 7.9 events. Five-year values also show variability and are mostly near or above the long-term average of about 3.0 events between 1950 and 1994 but are mostly near or below average since 1995. The 1995 to 1999 period has the lowest five-year values at 1.9 events, and the 1985 to 1989 period has the highest at 4.6 events.
The changing relationship between La Niña and Hawaiʻi rainfall and increases in the strength and duration of El Niño events have contributed to an increase in the number of consecutive dry days across the major Hawaiian Islands since the 1950s. An increase in drought conditions has been seen in recent years, particularly at high elevations. A prolonged period of drought from 2007–2014 was especially damaging to ranching in the state, and in 2010—the state's second-driest year on record—more than 40% of Hawaiʻi experienced severe, extreme, or exceptional drought conditions (as defined by the US Drought Monitor). Such conditions often lead to a lack of usable water and an increased risk of fire, as occurred in August 2023 when a flash drought (the rapid onset or intensification of drought) on Maui contributed to the deadliest wildfires in state history. On August 8, wind-driven wildfires destroyed more than 2,000 structures on the island and caused over $5 billion in damages. More than 100 lives were lost in the historic district of Lahaina, the most significantly impacted area. The total annual area burned by wildfires in Hawaiʻi has increased since the beginning of the 20th century (Figure 7), with several large events occurring since the late 1990s. The years following an El Niño event are more likely to see a larger total number of acres burned.
Time series of annual total area burned by wildfires in Hawaiʻi from 1904 to 2022 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from 0 to 50,000 acres. Annual values range from a low of 0 acres in multiple years before 1979 to a high of 46,338 acres in 2005. Prior to 1969, the annual number of acres burned never exceeded 30,000. Since 1969, five years have values exceeding 35,000 acres—1969, 1998, 2005, 2007, and 2021.
The weather in Hawaiʻi is largely shaped by the trade winds, which dominate during the dry season. During the wet Hawaiian winter, however, these winds often weaken, allowing for the development of intense cool winter storms known as Kona storms. Although these storms usually last only a week or less and occur just a few times a year, they are the state's most dangerous weather events. Because of the islands' steep terrain, Kona storms frequently cause flash flooding (and associated landslides), which is the leading cause of direct weather-related deaths in the state. Kona storms can also produce additional hazards such as hail, heavy mountain snow, and waterspouts, as well as high surf—a leading cause of indirect weather-related deaths in Hawaiʻi.
Hawaiʻi is also susceptible to tropical storms, most often occurring between June and November. Such storms bring heavy rains, high winds, and high waves to the islands. Hurricanes rarely make landfall in Hawaiʻi, with many dissipating into tropical storms or tropical depressions as they approach the islands. Since 1950, 26 hurricanes have affected Hawaiʻi (passing within 200 miles), with only two making landfall at hurricane strength. The most devastating hurricane to affect the state was Hurricane Iniki which made a direct hit to Kauaʻi on September 11, 1992. The storm produced wind gusts of more than 200 mph and damaged or destroyed more than 14,000 homes on the island, plus hundreds more on Oʻahu and the Island of Hawaiʻi. The annual number of tropical cyclones observed in the Central Pacific has varied over time, with a greater number forming during El Niño years. The most active hurricane season on record in the Central Pacific was 2015, with eight hurricanes and six additional tropical storms. Due to storm tracks shifting northward in the region, Hawaiʻi is projected to see an increase in the frequency of tropical cyclones.
Under the intermediate and higher emissions pathways, historically unprecedented warming is projected during this century (Figure 1). Even under the lower emissions pathway, some projections show annual average temperatures exceeding historical levels by the middle of the century. However, projections for all three pathways show a large range of potential temperature increases, and some projections for the lower pathway are comparable to recent observed values. The intensity of heat waves is projected to increase. This warming, accompanied by reduced rainfall in many areas, will stress native Pacific Island plants and animals—especially in high-elevation ecosystems with increasing exposure to invasive species—and increase the risk of extinctions. Naturally occurring droughts are expected to become more intense due to higher temperatures and the associated increase in evaporation rates and soil moisture loss during dry spells, further reducing streamflow and water supplies. These factors, in combination with a growing human population and expanding invasive grass cover, are projected to increase the frequency and intensity of wildfires.
Precipitation projections for Hawai'i are particularly challenging due to the state's high and steep topography, which leads to pronounced small-scale variations in climate. Under the intermediate emissions pathway, projections indicate decreases in total annual precipitation across the major Hawaiian Islands; however, these changes are not statistically significant (Figure 8). There is similar uncertainty in projections for seasonal precipitation, although models generally indicate decreases across most or all of the state for winter, spring, and summer and increases across the state for fall. Projected changes in the frequency and magnitude of extreme precipitation events are also uncertain.
Map of the major islands of Hawaiʻi (Hawaiʻi, Maui, Oʻahu, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi, Niʻhau, and Kahoʻolawe) showing the projected changes in annual precipitation by the middle of the 21st century under a higher emissions pathway as described in the caption.
Legend values range from less than negative 10 to greater than positive 15 percent.
Total annual precipitation is projected to decrease by up to five percent across the major islands of Hawaiʻi.
Increasing temperatures raise concerns for sea level rise in Hawaiʻi. On average, the state experienced about 5 inches of sea level rise between 1970 and 2020, slightly higher than that observed for the Caribbean island territories of Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands (4 inches) but lower than that for the contiguous US (6 inches). Projections for Hawaiʻi under the Intermediate sea level scenario show additional increases of about 8 inches by 2050 and 1.5 feet by 2070 (Figure 9). Across the five scenarios shown in Figure 9, the projected increases from 2020 to 2070 range from about 0.5 to 4 feet. Rates of sea level rise in Hawaiʻi vary between the major islands: 0.8 inches per decade for Kauaʻi and Oʻahu, 0.9 inches for Maui, and 1.2 inches for the Island of Hawaiʻi. Continued sea level rise presents major challenges to Hawaiʻi's coastline through coastal inundation and erosion, threatening beaches, ecosystems, homes, roads, and underground infrastructure. A recent study indicates that approximately 80% of beaches on Oʻahu could be lost by the end of the century, with 40% of that loss occurring by 2030. Rising ocean levels are exacerbated by localized land subsidence (sinking), leading to a greater than 50% increase in flood exposure by 2050. In some urban areas, such as the Mapunapuna industrial region in Honolulu, the ground is sinking at rates exceeding 25 mm (about 1 inch) per year—nearly 40 times the island-wide average. Sea level rise also affects Hawai'i's coastal water management system and could cause extensive economic damage through ecosystem damage and losses in property, tourism, and agriculture.
Two time series of observed and projected relative sea level change for (a) the contiguous US and (b) Hawaiʻi from 1970 to 2070 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from negative 1 to positive 5 feet for both graphs. Legends in both graphs denote sources of historical data and scenarios for projections. Line colors for historical data are black for tide gauge data and orange for satellite data. Line and shading colors for projections based on five scenarios are as follows: light blue, Low; medium blue, Intermediate-Low; dark blue, Intermediate; yellow, Intermediate-High; and dark orange, High.
Panel A: Contiguous US
Tide gauge and satellite data generally show increases but with year-to-year variability. Projected data show increases under all scenarios. Tide gauge values range from a minimum of –0.3 feet in 1976 to a maximum of 0.4 feet in 2023. Satellite values range from a minimum of 0.0 feet in 1994 to a maximum of 0.4 feet in 2023. Projected sea level median values (lines) for the Low scenario range from 0.3 feet in 2020 to 1.1 feet in 2070, compared to 0.4 feet in 2020 to 3.1 feet in 2070 for the High scenario. Likely ranges (shading) become wider over the period shown. The range of likely values in 2070 for each of the five scenarios are as follows: Low scenario, from 0.9 to 1.4 feet; Intermediate-Low, 1.2 to 1.7 feet; Intermediate, 1.5 to 2.2 feet; Intermediate-High, 1.8 to 3.1 feet; and High, 2.4 to 3.8 feet.
Panel B: Hawaiʻi
Both historical lines show increases lower than those in the contiguous US graph, while projected lines show higher increases for the High, Intermediate-High, and Intermediate scenarios but lower increases for the Intermediate-Low and Low scenarios. Tide values range from a minimum of –0.3 feet in 1972 to a maximum of 0.4 feet in 2017. Satellite data values range from a minimum of –0.1 feet in 2000 to a maximum of 0.4 feet in 2020. Projected sea level median values (lines) for the Low scenario range from 0.3 feet in 2020 to 0.9 feet in 2070, compared to 0.3 feet in 2020 to 3.6 feet in 2070 for the High scenario. Likely ranges (shading) become wider over the period shown. The range of likely values in 2070 for each of the five scenarios are as follows: Low scenario, from 0.8 to 1.1 feet; Intermediate-Low, 1.1 to 1.5 feet; Intermediate, 1.5 to 2.3 feet; Intermediate-High, 2.0 to 3.4 feet; and High, 2.8 to 4.3 feet.
Sea level rise has caused an increase in high-tide floods associated with nuisance-level impacts, which are occurring more frequently, even on sunny days. High-tide flooding occurs when one or more factors—sea level rise, winds, changes in ocean currents, full or new moons—push water levels above the normal high-tide mark. These events can damage infrastructure, cause road closures, and overwhelm storm drains. High-tide flooding has increased in all US coastal areas, with more rapid increases along the East and Gulf Coasts, and is likely to occur more frequently across the Hawaiian archipelago as global and local sea levels continue to rise and subsidence continues. The number of high-tide flood days has been increasing in recent decades at Honolulu, with the greatest number occurring in 2020. Under both the Intermediate-Low and Intermediate scenarios, high-tide floods are projected to occur much more frequently in future years (Figure 10).
Graph of the observed and projected annual number of high-tide flood days at Honolulu, Hawaiʻi, from 1920 to 2100 (top), including a magnified view of the observed data for the period 1920 to 2024 (bottom), as described in the caption.
A legend shows annual observations (orange bars) and projected 19-year averages (two-colored bars) for the Intermediate-Low (medium blue) and Intermediate (dark blue) sea level scenarios.
Bottom
Y-axis values for the magnified view range from 0 to 40 days per year. Following the first recorded event in 1959, high-tide flooding was sporadic until the mid-2010s, often with gaps of 2 to 7 years between events and annual values mostly below 8 days. Starting 2016, high-tide flood days occurred every year except for 2022, with a record high of 43 days in 2020.
Top
Y-axis labels range from 0 to 350 days, with a horizontal dashed gray line indicating 365 days. Honolulu is projected to experience 100 to 140 high-tide flood days per year by 2050 under the Intermediate-Low and Intermediate scenarios, respectively, and 360 to 365 days by 2100.
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