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NOAA National Centers
for Environmental Information

State Climate Summaries 2022

KANSAS

Key Messages   Narrative   Downloads  

All Hail Arvonia
Photo by Patrick Emerson
License: CC BY-ND

Key Message 1

Temperatures in Kansas have risen about 1.5°F since the beginning of the 20th century, with greater warming in the winter and spring than in the summer and fall. The number of very cold nights has been below average since 1990. Under a higher emissions pathway, historically unprecedented warming is projected during this century.

Key Message 2

Kansas is a region of transition between the humid conditions to the east of the state and the semiarid conditions to the west, and as a result, precipitation in the state varies greatly from year to year. Projected increases in winter precipitation and decreases in summer precipitation may have both positive and negative impacts on the state.

Key Message 3

Droughts and heat waves pose a particular risk to Kansas’s agricultural economy. Such events occurred in the 1930s, 1950s, and in recent years. Projected increases in temperatures may increase the intensity of future droughts. The frequency and severity of wildfires are also projected to increase throughout the state.

Sunrise at Teter Rock
Photo by Lane Pearman
License: CC BY

KANSAS

Kansas lies in the central Great Plains, straddling the transition from relatively abundant precipitation (more than 45 inches annually; 1991–2020 normals) in the southeast, supporting forests and rain-fed agriculture, to semiarid conditions (less than 20 inches annually) in the west. The state is located far from the moderating effects of the oceans, and temperatures vary widely across seasons. The statewide average temperature is 33.0°F in the winter and 76.8°F in the summer.

   

Figure 1

Observed and Projected Temperature Change
Time series of observed and projected temperature change (in degrees Fahrenheit) for Kansas from 1900 to 2100 as described in the caption. Y-axis values range from minus 4.3 to positive 16.1 degrees. Observed annual temperature change from 1900 to 2020 shows variability and ranges from minus 2.5 to positive 4.1 degrees. By the end of the century, projected increases in temperature range from 2.0 to 8.9 degrees under the lower emissions pathway and from 6.7 to 15.0 degrees under the higher pathway.
Figure 1: Observed and projected changes (compared to the 1901–1960 average) in near-surface air temperature for Kansas. Observed data are for 1900–2020. Projected changes for 2006–2100 are from global climate models for two possible futures: one in which greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase (higher emissions) and another in which greenhouse gas emissions increase at a slower rate (lower emissions). Temperatures in Kansas (orange line) have risen about 1.5°F since the beginning of the 20th century. Shading indicates the range of annual temperatures from the set of models. Observed temperatures are generally within the envelope of model simulations of the historical period (gray shading). Historically unprecedented warming is projected during this century. Less warming is expected under a lower emissions future (the coldest end-of-century projections being about 2°F warmer than the historical average; green shading) and more warming under a higher emissions future (the hottest end-of-century projections being about 11°F warmer than the hottest year in the historical record; red shading). Sources: CISESS and NOAA NCEI.

Temperatures in Kansas have risen about 1.5°F since the beginning of the 20th century (Figure 1). Recent multiyear periods have been among some of the warmest on record for Kansas, comparable to the extreme heat of the Dust Bowl era of the 1930s, when intense drought and poor land management likely exacerbated the hot summer conditions. Many record-high temperatures were set during the summer of 2012, which was the hottest year on record with an average temperature of 58.2°F. Recent spring temperatures have been above average (Figure 2a), which may have implications for crop planting. Summer temperatures have been near or above average since 2000 (Figure 2b). There is no long-term trend in very warm nights or extremely hot days, although both were slightly above average during the 2010–2014 period (Figures 3a and 3b). The number of very cold nights has been mostly below average since 1990 (Figure 4). The freeze-free season has also lengthened, especially in eastern Kansas, averaging about 9 days longer in this century than the 20th century average.

   

a)

Observed Spring Temperature
Graph of the observed spring average temperature for Kansas from 1895 to 2020 as described in the caption. Y-axis values range from 48 to 62 degrees Fahrenheit. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from about 48 to 61 degrees. Multiyear values also show variability and are mostly near or below the long-term average of 53.3 degrees between 1895 and 1984, but, with the exception of the 1995 to 1999 period, they are all above average since 1985. The 1950 to 1954 period has the lowest multiyear value, and the 1985 to 1989 period has the highest.
   

b)

Observed Summer Temperature
Graph of the observed summer average temperature for Kansas from 1895 to 2020 as described in the caption. Y-axis values range from 70 to 84 degrees Fahrenheit. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from about 70 to 83 degrees. With the exception of the 1910 to 1914 period, multiyear values are all below the long-term average of 76.6 degrees between 1895 and 1929, but they are well above average between 1930 and 1939. Between 1940 and 1999, multiyear values show no clear trend but are mostly near or below average, but since 2000, they are all near or above average. The 1905 to 1909 period has the lowest multiyear value, and the 1930 to 1934 and 1935 to 1939 periods have the highest.
Figure 2: Observed (a) spring (March–May) average temperature and (b) summer (June–August) average temperature for Kansas from 1895 to 2020. Dots show annual values. Bars show averages over 5-year periods (last bar is a 6-year average). The horizontal black lines show the long-term (entire period) averages: (a) 53.3°F and (b) 76.6°F. Since 2000, Kansas has experienced some of the highest springtime temperatures on record, while summer temperatures have been near to above average. The warmest summers on record were 1934 and 1936. Sources: CISESS and NOAA NCEI. Data: nClimDiv.

Precipitation is highly variable from year to year, with the majority of precipitation falling during the warm-season months (Figures 3d and 3e). Throughout the period of record (1895–2020), total annual precipitation has ranged from a low of 15.3 inches in 1956 to a high of 40.6 inches in 1951 and has generally been above average since 1985 (Figure 3c). The driest multiyear periods occurred during the 1910s, 1930s, and 1950s and the wettest during the 1940s, 1990s, and since 2015. The driest consecutive 5-year interval was 1952–1956, and the wettest was 2015–2019. The frequency of extreme precipitation events has been highly variable but shows a general increase; the number of 2-inch precipitation events was well above average during the 2015–2020 period (Figure 5). The increase in extreme precipitation events has been more pronounced in the eastern part of the state. Several major floods have occurred since the beginning of the 20th century. The Great Flood of 1951 extended over about half the state, with both rural and urban areas suffering severe losses, including more than $2 billion in total damages and 19 fatalities.

Figure 3

   

a)

Observed Number of Very Warm Nights
Graph of the observed annual number of very warm nights for Kansas from 1900 to 2020 as described in the caption. Y-axis values range from 0 to 30 nights. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from about 1 to 25 nights. Multiyear values show little variability and are mostly near or below the long-term average of 4.7 nights across the entire period. Two notable exceptions are the 1930 to 1934 and the 1935 and 1939 periods, which are well above average and have the highest multiyear values. The 1905 to 1909 period has the lowest multiyear value.
   

b)

Observed Number of Extremely Hot Days
Graph of the observed annual number of extremely hot days for Kansas from 1900 to 2020 as described in the caption. Y-axis values range from 0 to 60 days. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from about 0 to 51 days. Multiyear values show variability across the entire period but are mostly near or below the long-term average of 13 days. Two notable exceptions are the 1930 to 1934 and 1935 to 1939 periods, which are well above average and have the highest multiyear values. The 1905 to 1909 period has the lowest multiyear value.
   

c)

Observed Annual Precipitation
Graph of the observed total annual precipitation for Kansas from 1895 to 2020 as described in the caption. Y-axis values range from 15 to 45 inches. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from about 15 to 41 inches. Multiyear values also show variability and are all near or above the long-term average of 27.3 inches between 1895 and 1909 but are mostly below average between 1910 and 1939. Since 1940, multiyear values show no clear trend but are mostly near or above average. The 1935 to 1939 period, which is well below average, has the lowest multiyear value, and the 2015 to 2020 period has the highest.
   

d)

Observed Spring Precipitation
Graph of the observed total spring precipitation for Kansas from 1895 to 2020 as described in the caption. Y-axis values range from 2 to 16 inches. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from about 3 to 14 inches. Multiyear values also show variability and are mostly below the long-term average of 8.1 inches between 1895 and 1969, but, with the exception of the 2010 to 2014 period, they are all near or above average since 1970. The 1910 to 1914 period has the lowest multiyear value, and the 2015 to 2020 period has the highest.
   

e)

Observed Summer Precipitation
Graph of the observed total summer precipitation for Kansas from 1895 to 2020 as described in the caption. Y-axis values range from 0 to 20 inches. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from about 3 to 20 inches. Multiyear values also show variability and are all above the long-term average of 10.6 inches between 1895 and 1909 but are mostly below average between 1910 and 1939. Since 1940, multiyear values show no clear trend but are mostly near or above average. The 1935 to 1939, which is well below average, has the lowest multiyear value, and the 1965 to 1969 period has the highest.
Figure 3: Observed (a) annual number of very warm nights (minimum temperature of 75°F or higher), (b) annual number of extremely hot days (maximum temperature of 100°F or higher), (c) total annual precipitation, (d) total spring (March–May) precipitation, and (e) total summer (June–August) precipitation for Kansas from (a, b) 1900 to 2020 and (c, d, e) 1895 to 2020. Dots show annual values. Bars show averages over 5-year periods (last bar is a 6-year average). The horizontal black lines show the long-term (entire period) averages: (a) 4.7 nights, (b) 13 days, (c) 27.3 inches, (d) 8.1 inches, (e) 10.6 inches. The frequency of very warm nights and extremely hot days peaked during the 1930s Dust Bowl era. All precipitation metrics were above average during the 2015–2020 period. Sources: CISESS and NOAA NCEI. Data: (a, b) GHCN-Daily from 32 long-term stations; (c, d, e) nClimDiv.
   
Observed Number of Very Cold Nights
Graph of the observed annual number of very cold nights for Kansas from 1900 to 2020 as described in the caption. Y-axis values range from 0 to 20 nights. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0.4 to about 16 nights. Multiyear values also show variability and are all above the long-term average of 5.0 nights between 1900 and 1919, mostly below average between 1920 and 1959, and mostly above average between 1960 and 1989. Since 1990, multiyear values are all below average. The 1990 to 1994 period has the lowest multiyear value, and the 1920 to 1919 period, which is well above average, has the highest.
Figure 4: Observed annual number of very cold nights (minimum temperature of 0°F or lower) for Kansas from 1900 to 2020. Dots show annual values. Bars show averages over 5-year periods (last bar is a 6-year average). The horizontal black line shows the long-term (entire period) average of 5.0 nights. Since 1990, Kansas has experienced a near to below average number of very cold nights, indicative of overall winter warming in the region. Sources: CISESS and NOAA NCEI. Data: GHCN-Daily from 32 long-term stations.
   
Observed Number of Precipitation Events
Graph of the observed annual number of 2-inch extreme precipitation events for Kansas from 1900 to 2020. Y-axis values range from 0 to 3.5 days. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0.3 to about 3 days. Multiyear values also show variability and are mostly below the long-term average of 1.5 days between 1895 and 1984. Since 1985, multiyear values alternate above and below the long-term average, showing no clear trend. The 1980 to 1984 period has the lowest multiyear value, and the 2015 to 2020 period has the highest.
Figure 5: Observed annual number of 2-inch extreme precipitation events (days with precipitation of 2 inches or more) for Kansas from 1900 to 2020. Dots show annual values. Bars show averages over 5-year periods (last bar is a 6-year average). The horizontal black line shows the long-term (entire period) average of 1.5 days. A typical reporting station experiences 1 to 2 events per year. The largest number of 2-inch extreme precipitation events occurred during the 2015–2020 period, with an average of 2.1 events per year, followed by the 1995–1999 period, with an average of 2.0 events annually. Sources: CISESS and NOAA NCEI. Data: GHCN-Daily from 51 long-term stations.

Due to the state’s geography, which allows cold, dry air from the north to combine with warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico, severe thunderstorms are common in Kansas. Some of these thunderstorms can produce large hail, high winds, and tornadoes. During 1991–2010, the state experienced an average of just under 100 tornadoes each year, which occasionally caused major damage and loss of life. The Topeka tornado of June 8, 1966, one of the most destructive in Kansas’s history, killed 17 people, injured more than 500, and caused more than $200 million in damages (at the time, it was the costliest tornado in U.S. history, and as of 2015, it was the fourth costliest). Since 1950, Kansas has had six F5/EF5 tornadoes, the third most of any state. The most recent EF5 tornado occurred on May 4, 2007, when nearly 95% of Greensburg was completely destroyed and 11 people were killed.

Droughts pose a particular risk to Kansas’s agricultural economy (Figure 6). A multiyear drought impacted the state from late 2010 through late 2015. The peak of the drought occurred in 2012, which was one of the state’s driest years on record. The critical growth months of May–July were the driest on record, with a statewide average of only 4.9 inches of rain. By August, nearly 90% of the state was in extreme or exceptional drought status. The drought, combined with the extreme summer heat, had significant negative impacts on crop yields, livestock production, and pasture conditions. Despite the occurrence of this very intense drought, the late 20th and early 21st centuries generally have been characterized by few droughts, either short-term or long-term.

   
Kansas Palmer Drought Severity Index
Line graph of the Kansas Palmer Drought Severity Index for the years 1000 to 2020 as described in the caption. Y-axis values are divided into dry and wet categories, ranging from 0 to minus 8 (dry) and 0 to positive 8 (wet). Annual values show large variability and range from about minus 6 to positive 5. Values for most years fall between minus 3 and positive 2, but values reaching minus 4 and positive 3 are common. The twenty-year running average also shows variability, with values ranging from about minus 2 to positive 1. Most values prior to the late 1800s range from 0 to minus 2, and most values since then range from 0 to positive 1. Values have been consistently above zero since 1974.
Figure 6: Time series of the Palmer Drought Severity Index for Kansas from the year 1000 to 2020. Values for 1895 to 2020 (red) are based on measured temperature and precipitation. Values prior to 1895 (blue) are estimated from indirect measures such as tree rings. The fluctuating black line is a running 20-year average. In the modern era, the wet periods of the early 1900s and the dry period of the 1930s to 1940s are evident. With the exception of the 2010–2015 drought, Kansas has experienced overall wet conditions since the 1980s. The extended record indicates periodic occurrences of similar extended wet and dry periods. Sources: CISESS and NOAA NCEI. Data: nClimDiv and NADAv2.

Under a higher emissions pathway, historically unprecedented warming is projected during this century (Figure 1). Even under a lower emissions pathway, temperatures are projected to most likely exceed record levels by the middle of this century. However, a large range of temperature increases is projected under both pathways, and under the lower pathway, a few projections are only slightly warmer than historical records. Heat wave intensity is projected to increase, posing a risk to both livestock and human health, while cold wave intensity is projected to decrease. The freeze-free season is projected to lengthen.

Although projections of overall annual precipitation are uncertain, summer precipitation is projected to decrease across the state (Figure 7), while winter precipitation is projected to increase. Winter precipitation increases could benefit winter wheat production, but summer drying would have negative impacts on rain-fed summer crops and rangeland.

   
Projected Change in Summer Precipitation
Map of the contiguous United States showing the projected changes in total summer precipitation by the middle of this century as described in the caption. Values range from less than minus 20 to greater than positive 15 percent. Summer precipitation is projected to increase along the east coast and decrease across most of the rest of the country, particularly in Oregon and California. Statistically significant increases are projected for southeastern North Carolina and northern Maine. The projected change in summer precipitation is uncertain for some areas in the north-central United States, New Mexico, and northern Florida. Statistically significant decreases are projected for portions of the central United States. All of Kansas is projected to see a decrease of 5 to 10 percent, with a statistically significant decrease expected in the north-central region.
Figure 7: Projected changes in total summer (June–August) precipitation (%) for the middle of the 21st century compared to the late 20th century under a higher emissions pathway. Whited-out areas indicate that the climate models are uncertain about the direction of change. Hatching represents areas where the majority of climate models indicate a statistically significant change. In Kansas, summer precipitation is projected to decrease in the range of 5% to 10% by 2050, although the changes are statistically significant only in the central part of the state. Sources: CISESS and NEMAC. Data: CMIP5.

The intensity of future droughts is projected to increase. Droughts are a natural part of the climate system. Although projections of overall precipitation are uncertain, higher temperatures will increase the rate of soil moisture loss during dry spells, leading to more serious conditions during future naturally occurring droughts, including an increase in the occurrence and severity of wildfires.

Details on observations and projections are available on the Technical Details and Additional Information page.

Lead Authors
Rebekah Frankson, Cooperative Institute for Satellite Earth System Studies (CISESS)
Kenneth E. Kunkel, Cooperative Institute for Satellite Earth System Studies (CISESS)
Contributing Authors
Laura E. Stevens, Cooperative Institute for Satellite Earth System Studies (CISESS)
David R. Easterling, NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information
Xiaomao Lin, Kansas State University
Martha Shulski, Nebraska State Climate Office, University of Nebraska–Lincoln
Natalie A. Umphlett, NOAA High Plains Regional Climate Center, University of Nebraska–Lincoln
Crystal J. Stiles, NOAA High Plains Regional Climate Center, University of Nebraska–Lincoln
Recommended Citation
Frankson, R., K.E. Kunkel, L.E. Stevens, D.R. Easterling, X. Lin, M. Shulski, N.A. Umphlett, and C.J. Stiles, 2022: Kansas State Climate Summary 2022. NOAA Technical Report NESDIS 150-KS. NOAA/NESDIS, Silver Spring, MD, 5 pp.

RESOURCES

  • EPA, 2014: Climate Change Indicators in the United States, 2014, Third Edition. EPA 430-R-14-004. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, 112 pp. https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2016-07/documents/climateindicators-full-2014.pdf
  • EPA, 2016: What Climate Change Means for Kansas. EPA 43-F-16-018. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, 2 pp. https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2016-09/documents/climate-change-ks.pdf
  • Hayhoe, K., D.J. Wuebbles, D.R. Easterling, D.W. Fahey, S. Doherty, J. Kossin, W. Sweet, R. Vose, and M. Wehner, 2018: Our changing climate. In: Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II. Reidmiller, D.R., C.W. Avery, D.R. Easterling, K.E. Kunkel, K.L.M. Lewis, T.K. Maycock, and B.C. Stewart, Eds. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, 72–144. https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/chapter/2/
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