Kansas lies in the central Great Plains, straddling the transition from relatively abundant precipitation (more than 45 inches annually) in the southeast, which supports forests and rain-fed agriculture, to semiarid conditions (less than 20 inches annually) in the west (1991–2020 averages). The state is located far from the moderating effects of the oceans, and temperatures vary widely across seasons. Summer high temperatures typically range from the mid-80s (F°) to low 90s across the state, and winter low temperatures range from less than 15°F in some northwest locations to more than 25°F in the southeast.
Time series of observed and projected temperature change (in degrees Fahrenheit) for Kansas from 1900 to 2100 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from negative 4 to positive 20 degrees. Observed annual temperatures from 1900 to 2024 show variability and range from negative 2.5 to positive 4.1 degrees. By the end of the century, projected increases in temperature range from 1.6 to 8.1 degrees under the lower emissions pathway, from 3.9 to 11.2 degrees under the intermediate pathway, and from 8.3 to 18.0 degrees under the higher pathway.
Annual average temperatures in Kansas have increased more than 1.5°F since the beginning of the 20th century (Figure 1). Recent multiyear periods have been among the warmest on record for Kansas, comparable to the extreme heat of the Dust Bowl era of the 1930s, when intense drought and poor land management likely exacerbated the hot summer conditions. Many high-temperature records were set during the summer of 2012, which was the hottest year on record with an average temperature of 58.2°F. Recent spring temperatures have mostly been above average (Figure 2a), with potential implications for crop planting. Summer temperatures have generally been near or above average since the early 2000s (Figure 2b). There is no long-term trend in extremely hot days or very warm nights, with both reaching record-high numbers in the 1930s (Figures 3a and 3b). The number of very cold nights has generally been below average since the 1990s (Figure 4). The freeze-free season has also lengthened, especially in eastern Kansas.
Two graphs of the observed (a) spring and (b) summer average temperatures for Kansas from 1895 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Panel A: Spring Average Temperature
Y-axis values range from 46 to 62 degrees Fahrenheit. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 48.4 to 61.2 degrees. Five-year values also show variability and are mostly near or below the long-term average of 53.4 degrees between 1895 and 1984 but are all above average since 1985 except for the 1995 to 1999 period. The 1915 to 1919 and 1950 to 1954 periods have the lowest 5-year values at 51.7 degrees each, and the 1985 to 1989 period has the highest at 55.6 degrees.
Panel B: Summer Average Temperature
Y-axis values range from 68 to 84 degrees Fahrenheit. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 70.4 to 83.2 degrees. Five-year values also show variability and are mostly below the long-term average of 76.6 degrees between 1895 and 1929, well above average between 1930 and 1939, and mostly near or below average between 1940 and 1999. Since 2000, 5-year values are all near or above average. The 1905 to 1909 period has the lowest 5-year value at 75.0 degrees, and the 1930 to 1934 and 1935 to 1939 periods have the highest at 78.9 and 79.2 degrees, respectively.
Two graphs of the observed annual number of (a) extremely hot days and (b) very warm nights for Kansas from 1900 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Panel A: Extremely Hot Days
Y-axis values range from 0 to 60 days. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0.4 to 51.9 days. Five-year values also show variability and are mostly near or below the long-term average of 13.2 days across the entire period. Two notable exceptions are the 1930 to 1934 and 1935 to 1939 periods, which have the highest 5-year values at 24.7 and 29.8 days, respectively. The 1905 to 1909 period has the lowest 5-year value at 4.9 days.
Panel B: Very Warm Nights
Y-axis values range from 0 to 28 nights. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0.3 to 23.2 nights. Five-year values show little variability and are mostly near or below the long-term average of 4.5 nights across the entire period. Two notable exceptions are the 1930 to 1934 and the 1935 and 1939 periods, which have the highest 5-year values at 9.2 and 9.4 nights, respectively. The 1905 to 1909 period has the lowest 5-year value at 1.7 nights.
Graph of the observed annual number of very cold nights for Kansas from 1900 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from 0 to 20 nights. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0.3 to 16.3 nights. Five-year values also show variability and are all near or above the long-term average of 5.2 nights between 1900 and 1919, mostly below average between 1920 and 1959, and mostly above average between 1960 and 1989. Since 1990, 5-year values are all near or below average. The 1990 to 1994 and 2000 to 2004 periods have the lowest 5-year values at 2.6 nights each, and the 1915 to 1919 period has the highest at 10.1 nights.
Throughout the period of record (1895–2024), total annual precipitation has ranged from a low of 15.3 inches in 1956 to a high of 40.6 inches in 1951 and shows no long-term trend (Figure 5). Precipitation is highly variable from year to year, with the majority of precipitation falling during the warm-season months (Figures 6a and 6b). Winter precipitation is more likely to fall as rain instead of snow, with annual snowfall totals ranging from less than 10 inches in the southeast to more than 25 inches in the northwest (1991–2020 averages).
Graph of the observed total annual precipitation for Kansas from 1895 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from 12 to 44 inches. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 15.3 to 40.6 inches. Five-year values also show variability and are all near or above the long-term average of 27.2 inches between 1895 and 1909 but are mostly below average between 1910 and 1939. Since 1940, 5-year values show no clear trend but are mostly near or above average. The 1935 to 1939 period has the lowest 5-year value at 22.1 inches, and the 2015 to 2019 period has the highest at 32.1 inches.
Two graphs of the observed total (a) spring and (b) summer precipitation for Kansas from 1895 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Panel A: Total Spring Precipitation
Y-axis values range from 2 to 16 inches. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 2.9 to 14.3 inches. Five-year values also show variability and are mostly below the long-term average of 8.1 inches between 1895 and 1969 but are all near or above average since 1970 except for the 2010 to 2014 period. The 1910 to 1914 period has the lowest 5-year value at 6.0 inches, and the 2015 to 2019 period has the highest at 11.1 inches.
Panel B: Total Summer Precipitation
Y-axis values range from 0 to 24 inches. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 3.2 to 19.9 inches. Five-year values also show variability and are all above the long-term average of 10.6 inches between 1895 and 1909, mostly below average between 1910 and 1939, mostly near or above average between 1940 and 1969, and all below average between 1970 and 1984. Since 1985, 5-year values are mostly near or above average. The 1935 to 1939 period has the lowest 5-year value at 7.7 inches, and the 1965 to 1969 period has the highest at 12.5 inches.
The frequency of extreme precipitation events has been highly variable but shows a general increase since the early 20th century (Figure 7). The increase in extreme precipitation events has been more pronounced in the eastern part of the state. Several major floods have occurred since the beginning of the 20th century. The Great Flood of 1951 extended over about half the state, with both rural and urban areas suffering severe losses, including more than $2 billion in total damages and 19 fatalities. Notable flooding events since then include the Halloween Flood of 1998 in south-central and southeastern Kansas, floods in May–July 2007 that caused widespread damage across 20 counties, and flash flooding in June 2025 in the Wichita area.
Graph of the observed annual number of 2-inch extreme precipitation events for Kansas from 1900 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from 0.0 to 3.5 events. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0.2 to 3.1 events. Five-year values also show variability and are mostly below the long-term average of 1.5 events between 1895 and 1984. Since 1985, 5-year values fluctuate above and below the long-term average, showing no clear trend. The 1980 to 1984 period has the lowest 5-year value at 1.0 events, and the 2015 to 2019 period has the highest at 2.3 events.
Severe thunderstorms are common in Kansas due to the state’s geography, which allows cold, dry air from the north to combine with warm, moist air from the Gulf of America (formerly Gulf of Mexico). Some of these thunderstorms can produce large hail, high winds, and tornadoes. Between 1995 and 2024, the state experienced an average of 82 tornadoes each year, which occasionally caused major damage and loss of life. The Topeka tornado of June 8, 1966, one of the most destructive in Kansas’s history, killed 17 people, injured more than 500, and caused more than $200 million in damages (at the time, it was the costliest tornado in US history, and as of 2022, it was the fourth costliest). Since 1950, Kansas has had six F5/EF5 tornadoes, the third most of any state. The most recent EF5 tornado occurred on May 4, 2007, when nearly 95% of Greensburg was completely destroyed and 11 people were killed.
Droughts pose a particular risk to Kansas’s agricultural economy (Figure 8). A multiyear drought impacted the state from late 2010 through late 2015. The peak of the drought occurred in 2012, which was one of the state’s driest years on record. The critical growth months of May–July were the driest on record, with a statewide average of only 4.9 inches of rain. By August, nearly 90% of the state was in extreme or exceptional drought status (as defined by the US Drought Monitor). The drought, combined with the extreme summer heat, had significant negative impacts on crop yields, livestock production, and pasture conditions. Despite the occurrence of this very intense drought, the late 20th and early 21st centuries were generally characterized by few droughts, either short-term or long-term. The droughts of the 1930s and 1950s still remain the most impactful in the 20th century in terms of duration, severity, and spatial extent.
Time series of the Kansas Palmer Drought Severity Index for the years 1000 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values are divided into dry and wet categories, ranging from 0 to negative 8 (dry) and 0 to positive 8 (wet). Annual values show variability and range from negative 6.9 to positive 6.3. Annual values for most years fall between negative 3 and positive 2, but values reaching negative 4 and positive 3 are common. The 20-year running average also shows variability, with values ranging from negative 2.2 to positive 1.5. Since the beginning of the modern era (red line), the running average is generally high in the positive range until the late 1910s, then fluctuates above and below 0 before showing an upward trend in the 1960s. Since then, the running average remains above 0, peaking in 1991 at positive 1.5 and dropping to positive 0.2 in 2014.
Under the intermediate and higher emissions pathways, historically unprecedented warming is projected during this century (Figure 1). Even under the lower emissions pathway, most projections show annual average temperatures exceeding historical levels by the middle of the century. However, projections for all three pathways show a large range of potential temperature increases, and some projections for the lower pathway are comparable to recent observed values. Heat wave intensity is projected to increase, posing a risk to both livestock and human health, while cold wave intensity is projected to decrease. The growing season is projected to lengthen.
Under the intermediate emissions pathway, projections indicate increases in total annual precipitation for most of Kansas but decreases in the southwestern portion of the state by midcentury; however, these changes are not statistically significant (Figure 9). There is similar uncertainty in projections for seasonal precipitation, although models generally indicate statewide increases in winter and spring and decreases in summer. Increases in winter precipitation could benefit winter wheat production, but summer drying would have negative impacts on rain-fed summer crops and rangeland. Increases in both the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events are projected for Kansas.
Map of the contiguous United States showing the projected changes in total annual precipitation by the middle of this century as described in the caption. The state of Kansas is outlined in black.
Legend values range from less than negative 10 to greater than positive 15 percent. Note: unless otherwise specified, projected values are not statistically significant.
Kansas
The majority of Kansas is projected to see increases in total annual precipitation of up to 5 percent, with decreases of up to 5 percent expected in the southwestern corner.
Contiguous US
Projected increases in total annual precipitation are as follows: up to 5 percent for most of the Southeast, as well as the central Midwest, central Great Plains, central West, and Northwest; and 5 to 10 percent for all of the Northeast, as well as portions of the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, northern Midwest, northern Great Plains, and Pacific Northwest, with statistically significant increases in the 5 to 10 percent range for the Northeast, northeastern Midwest, and portions of the northern Great Plains and Pacific Northwest.
Projected decreases of up to 5 percent are expected across most of Texas, New Mexico, and Arizona, as well as southern California.
Droughts are a natural part of the climate system. The intensity of future droughts is projected to increase due to higher temperatures and the associated increase in evaporation rates and soil moisture loss, potentially increasing the frequency and severity of wildfires.
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