2025 State Climate Summaries for the United States

Stevens, L.E.; Anheuser, J.; Essig, M.R.; Lamb, A.D.; Maycock, T.K.; McCarrick, A.L.; Visovatti, A.

doi:doi.org/10.52750/153632

Due to its central location in the eastern half of the United States and the lack of mountain barriers to the interior of the North American continent and south to the Gulf of America (formerly Gulf of Mexico), Kentucky’s climate is characterized by moderately large variations in temperature and abundant precipitation. Winters are cool with occasional episodes of very cold Arctic air, while summers vary from warm to hot and humid. Average summer high temperatures in Kentucky are generally in the mid- to high 80s (°F), while winter low temperatures typically range from the mid- to high 20s (1991–2020 averages). Temperatures often fall below 0°F for several days per year in many parts of the state. The coldest temperature ever recorded was −37°F in Shelbyville on January 19, 1994. Annual average precipitation ranges from less than 50 inches in the north to almost 60 inches in the southeast. Kentucky’s elevation ranges from 400 feet above sea level along the Mississippi River in the west to more than 4,100 feet at the peak of Black Mountain in the southeast, although most of the state is below 1,000 feet.

Figure 1: Observed and projected changes (compared to the 1901–1960 average) in near-surface annual average air temperature for Kentucky. Observed data are for 1900–2024. Projected changes for 2015–2100 were generated using global climate models to explore three possible futures, associated with lower, intermediate, and higher greenhouse gas emissions pathways (the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively). Temperatures in Kentucky (black line) have increased almost 1°F since the beginning of the 20th century (based on a linear trend). This is less than half the warming for the contiguous United States, but the most recent decade (2015–2024) has been the warmest on record. Shading indicates the range of annual temperatures from the set of models. Observed temperatures are generally within the envelope of model simulations of the historical period (light gray shading). Less warming is expected under a lower emissions future (the coldest end-of-century projections being about 2.0°F warmer than the 1901–1960 average; blue shading) and more warming under a higher emissions future (the hottest end-of-century projections being about 12.7°F warmer than the hottest year in the observed record; red shading), while the intermediate emissions future leads to moderate warming (with end-of-century projections ranging from about 3.9°F to 9.7°F above the 1901–1960 average; dark gray shading). Adapted from Runkle et al. 2022. Data: NClimDiv and CMIP6.

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Time series of observed and projected temperature change (in degrees Fahrenheit) for Kentucky from 1900 to 2100 as described in the caption.

Y-axis values range from negative 4 to positive 18 degrees. Observed annual temperatures from 1900 to 2024 show variability and range from negative 3.2 to positive 3.1 degrees. By the end of the century, projected increases in temperature range from 2.0 to 7.6 degrees under the lower emissions pathway, from 4.0 to 10.0 degrees under the intermediate pathway, and from 7.9 to 16.3 degrees under the higher pathway.

Annual average temperatures in Kentucky have risen rapidly since the 1970s, with the last decade (2015–2024) being the warmest on record (Figure 1). However, Kentucky and neighboring states in the southeastern US are among the few locations globally that have experienced relatively little overall warming since 1900. Kentucky has seen a series of shifting trends—warming from the early 20th century into the 1930s, then substantial cooling until the 1970s, followed by the recent rapid warming—resulting in a net increase since 1900 of almost 1°F, compared to 2.2°F for the contiguous US as a whole. Hypothesized causes for this difference in warming rates in parts of the Southeast US include increased cloud cover and precipitation, increased small particles from coal burning, natural factors related to forest regrowth, decreased heat flux due to irrigation, and multidecadal variability in North Atlantic and tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures.

Winter temperatures have generally been near or above average since the 1990s (Figure 2a). The 10 coldest winters all occurred prior to 1980. Since 2005, 5-year values for summer temperature have been above average but not as high as those during the Dust Bowl era of the 1930s and early 1940s (Figure 2b). The greatest number of extremely hot days occurred in the early 1910s and the 1930s, with a record high of about 24 days in 1936 (Figure 3a). Since the late 1950s, the number of extremely hot days has generally been below average. The number of very warm nights has shown a slight upward trend since the early 2000s (Figure 3b). The number of very cold nights has generally been below average since the 1990s (Figure 4).

Figure 2: Observed (a) winter (December–February) and (b) summer (June–August) average temperatures for Kentucky from (a) 1895–96 to 2023–24 and (b) 1895 to 2024. Dots show annual values. Bars show averages over 5-year periods (first bar in Figure 2a is a 4-winter average). The horizontal black lines show the long-term (entire period) averages of (a) 35.7°F and (b) 74.7°F. Winter temperatures have generally been above average since the 1990s, with the most recent decade being the warmest on record. Five-year values for summer temperature have been above average since the 2005–2009 period but are below the highs of the 1930s and early 1940s, when high temperatures were exacerbated by extreme drought and poor land management. Adapted from Runkle et al. 2022. Data: NClimDiv.

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Two graphs of the observed (a) winter and (b) summer average temperatures for Kentucky from 1895–96 to 2023–24 and 1895 to 2024, respectively, as described in the caption.

Panel A: Winter Average Temperature
Y-axis values range from 24 to 48 degrees Fahrenheit. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 26.5 to 44.2 degrees. Five-year values also show variability and are all near or below the long-term average of 35.7 degrees between 1895 and 1919, mostly near or above average between 1920 and 1954, and all near or below average between 1955 and 1989. Since 1990, 5-year values are all near or above average except for the 2010 to 2014 period. The 1975 to 1979 period has the lowest 5-year value at 31.9 degrees, and the 2020 to 2024 period has the highest at 39.4 degrees.

Panel B: Summer Average Temperature
Y-axis values range from 70 to 80 degrees Fahrenheit. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 71.2 to 78.6 degrees. Five-year values also show variability and are mostly near or above the long-term average of 74.7 degrees between 1895 and 1954 but are all near or below average between 1955 and 2004. Since 2005, 5-year values are all above average. The 1970 to 1974 period has the lowest 5-year value at 73.1 degrees, and the 1930 to 1934, 1935 to 1939, and 1940 to 1944 periods have the highest at 76.3, 75.8, and 76.1 degrees, respectively. 

Figure 3: Observed annual number of (a) extremely hot days (maximum temperature of 100°F or higher) and very warm nights (minimum temperature of 75°F or higher) for Kentucky from 1900 to 2024. Dots show annual values. Bars show averages over 5-year periods. The horizontal black lines show the long-term (entire period) averages of (a) 1.6 days and (b) 1.4 nights. Since the late 1950s, extremely hot days have been rare compared to their occurrence prior to 1955. Five-year averages for very warm nights have been steadily increasing since the early 2000s but have not exceeded the 5-year average for the 1930–1934 period. Adapted from Runkle et al. 2022. Data: GHCN-Daily.

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Two graphs of the observed annual number of (a) extremely hot days and (b) very warm nights for Kentucky from 1900 to 2024 as described in the caption.

Panel A: Extremely Hot Days
Y-axis values range from 0 to 28 days. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0 to 23.6 days. Five-year values also show variability and are mostly near or above the long-term average of 1.6 days between 1900 and 1954 but are mostly below average since 1955. The 1970 to 1974 and 1975 to 1979 periods have the lowest 5-year values at 0.02 and 0.03 days, respectively, and the 1930 to 1934 period has the highest at 6.8 days.

Panel B: Very Warm Nights
Y-axis values range from 0 to 10 nights. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0 to 8.1 nights. Five-year values also show variability and are mostly near or above the long-term average of 1.4 nights between 1900 and 1954 but are all below average between 1955 and 2000 except for the 1980 to 1985 period. All 5-year values since 2005 are above average. The 1955 to 1959 period has the lowest 5-year value at 0.1 nights, and the 1930 to 1934 period has the highest at 5.6 nights.

Figure 4: Observed annual number of very cold nights (minimum temperature of 0°F or lower) for Kentucky from 1900 to 2024. Dots show annual values. Bars show averages over 5-year periods. The horizontal black line shows the long-term (entire period) average of 2.1 nights. The number of very cold nights has mostly been below average since the 1990s. Adapted from Runkle et al. 2022. Data: GHCN-Daily.

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Graph of the observed annual number of very cold nights for Kentucky from 1900 to 2024 as described in the caption.

Y-axis values range from 0 to 16 nights. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0 to 13.4 nights. Five-year values also show variability and are mostly near or below the long-term average of 2.1 nights between 1900 and 1959, all near or above average between 1960 and 1989, and all below average since 1990. The 2020 to 2024 period has the lowest 5-year value at 0.5 nights, and the 1975 to 1979 period has the highest at 5.8 nights.

Total annual precipitation in Kentucky exhibits an overall upward trend and has been mostly near or above the long-term average since the early 2010s (Figure 5a). Statewide annual precipitation has ranged from a low of 29.0 inches in 1930 to a high of 64.4 inches in 2011. Summer precipitation has been trending upward since the 1980s (Figure 5b). The annual number of 2-inch extreme precipitation events is highly variable from year to year but has generally been above average in recent years (Figure 6). The highest 5-year average of more than three events per year occurred during the 1975–1979 period. Deficient precipitation coupled with hot temperatures during the summer months can result in drought. During the summer of 2012, extreme drought conditions (as defined by the US Drought Monitor) in western Kentucky were exacerbated by a heat wave in late June and early July, when high temperatures rivaled those experienced in the 1930s.

Figure 5: Observed total (a) annual and (b) summer (June–August) precipitation for Kentucky from 1895 to 2024. Dots show annual values. Bars show averages over 5-year periods. The horizontal black lines show the long-term (entire period) averages of (a) 47.8 inches and (b) 12.6 inches. Total annual precipitation shows an overall upward trend. Summer precipitation has been trending upward since the 1980s. The highest 5-year averages for annual and summer precipitation were recorded for the 2015–2019 period. Adapted from Runkle et al. 2022. Data: NClimDiv.

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Two graphs of the observed total (a) annual and (b) summer precipitation for Kentucky from 1895 to 2024 as described in the caption.

Panel A: Total Annual Precipitation
Y-axis values range from 24 to 68 inches. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 29.0 to 64.3 inches. Five-year values also show variability and are mostly near or below the long-term average of 47.8 inches between 1895 and 1869 but are mostly near or above average since 1970. The 1900 to 1904 and 1940 to 1944 periods have the lowest 5-year values at 41.0 and 40.7 inches, respectively, and the 2015 to 2019 period has the highest at 56.6 inches.

Panel B: Total Summer Precipitation
Y-axis values range from 4 to 22 inches. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 5.5 to 20.1 inches. Five-year values also show variability and are mostly near or below the long-term average of 12.6 inches between 1895 and 1999 but are mostly near or above average since 2000. The 1900 to 1904 period has the lowest 5-year value at 11.0 inches, and the 2015 to 2019 period has the highest at 16.2 inches.

Figure 6: Observed annual number of 2-inch extreme precipitation events (days with precipitation of 2 inches or more) for Kentucky from 1900 to 2024. Dots show annual values. Bars show averages over 5-year periods. The horizontal black line shows the long-term (entire period) average of 2.2 events, indicating that a typical station experiences about two events per year. Five-year averages for 2-inch extreme precipitation events were mostly near or below average between 1900 and the late 1960s but have generally been near or above average since then. Adapted from Runkle et al. 2022. Data: GHCN-Daily.

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Graph of the observed annual number of 2-inch extreme precipitation events for Kentucky from 1900 to 2024 as described in the caption.

Y-axis values range from 0 to 5 events. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0.4 to 4.7 events. Five-year values also show variability and are mostly near or below the long-term average of 2.2 events between 1900 and 1969 but are mostly near or above average since 1970. The 1900 to 1904 period has the lowest 5-year value at 1.3 events, and the 1975 to 1979 period has the highest at 3.2 events.

Extreme weather events in Kentucky include ice storms and snowstorms in the winter and severe thunderstorms in the warmer months. In recent years, there have been multiple Federal Emergency Management Agency weather- and climate-related disaster declarations in the state for flooding and tornadoes. Heavy rain from severe thunderstorms can often lead to flash flooding in low-lying areas and in urban areas where the prevalence of impermeable surfaces (such as roads, roofs, and parking lots) accelerates storm runoff to ditches and streams. Many notable flood events have occurred in Kentucky’s history, including in late January and early February 1957, when multiday rainfall led to devastating floods across southeastern Kentucky and other parts of the southern Appalachian region. Another major flooding event occurred in eastern Kentucky during a five-day period, July 25–30, 2022, with some areas receiving 14–16 inches of rain. The excessive rainfall caused flash flooding, led to 39 fatalities, and resulted in extensive damage across 13 counties. In the first week of April 2025, multiple rounds of thunderstorms dropped as much as 15 inches of rain across western and central Kentucky, leading to major flooding and seven deaths across the state. A new statewide 24-hour rainfall record was set over July 18–19, 2023, when 11.28 inches fell in Mayfield, breaking the previous record of 10.5 inches set in Louisville in March 1997.

Kentucky experiences a relatively high number of tornadoes each year, with an annual average of 27 tornadoes between 1995 and 2024. In April 2011, 41 tornadoes were reported, superseding an earlier April record of 29 tornadoes during the Super Outbreak of 1974. On March 2, 2012, 18 tornadoes touched down in Kentucky, including one of EF4 and four of EF3 intensity, resulting in 22 fatalities. Over December 10–11, 2021, widespread severe weather across the central US led to a large tornado outbreak, including the Quad State Tornado, an EF4 that traveled 165.7 miles—one of the longest tornado paths in US history—leading to 57 fatalities and more than 500 injuries in western Kentucky, as well as up to $3.5 billion in damages. More recently, on May 16, 2025, an EF4 cut a path of nearly 60 miles through eastern Kentucky, destroying hundreds of homes and causing 19 deaths.

Under the intermediate and higher emissions pathways, historically unprecedented warming is projected during this century (Figure 1). Even under the lower emissions pathway, most projections show annual average temperatures exceeding historical levels by the middle of the century. However, projections for all three pathways show a large range of potential temperature increases, and some projections for the lower pathway are comparable to recent observed values. With rising temperatures, future heat waves are projected to be more intense, posing increased risks of heat-related illness and deaths, especially for urban residents. Heat absorbed and emitted by buildings and pavement, as well as other aspects of urban environments, makes cities even warmer than the surrounding countryside, a phenomenon known as the urban heat island effect. Future cold waves are projected to be less intense.

Under the intermediate emissions pathway, projections indicate increases in total annual precipitation by midcentury for Kentucky; however, the projected changes are not statistically significant (Figure 7). There is similar uncertainly in seasonal precipitation, although models generally indicate increases in all seasons across most or all of the state. Continuing increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events are projected, potentially resulting in increased flooding.

Figure 7: Projected changes in total annual precipitation (%) for the middle of the 21st century (2041–2070) compared to the 1991–2020 average under the intermediate emissions pathway (SSP2-4.5 scenario). For areas with hatching, a majority of models project statistically significant changes and agree on the direction of change. For areas without hatching, less than half of models project statistically significant changes. Projections indicate increases in total annual precipitation by midcentury for Kentucky; however, these changes are not statistically significant. Adapted from Runkle et al. 2022. Data: CMIP6.

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Map of the contiguous United States showing the projected changes in total annual precipitation by the middle of this century as described in the caption. The state of Kentucky is outlined in black.

Legend values range from less than negative 10 to greater than positive 15 percent. Note: unless otherwise specified, projected values are not statistically significant.

Kentucky
All of Kentucky is projected to see increases in total annual precipitation of up to 5 percent.

Contiguous US
Projected increases in total annual precipitation are as follows: up to 5 percent for most of the Southeast, as well as the central Midwest, central Great Plains, central West, and Northwest; and 5 to 10 percent for all of the Northeast, as well as portions of the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, northern Midwest, northern Great Plains, and Pacific Northwest, with statistically significant increases in the 5 to 10 percent range for the Northeast, northeastern Midwest, and portions of the northern Great Plains and Pacific Northwest. 

Projected decreases of up to 5 percent are expected across most of Texas, New Mexico, and Arizona, as well as southern California.

Droughts, a natural part of Kentucky’s climate, are projected to increase in intensity due to higher temperatures and the associated increase in evaporation rates and soil moisture loss. Future increases in the intensity of both floods and droughts will have implications for important sectors of the state’s economy, including agriculture, industry, tourism, and natural resource management.

Details on observations and projections are available on the Technical Details and Additional Information page.
The compiled version of the 2022 State Climate Summaries, including the complete author list and recommended citations, is available on the Downloads page.

Authors: Laura E. Stevens, North Carolina State University; James Anheuser, North Carolina State University; Mark R. Essig, North Carolina State University; April D. Lamb, North Carolina State University; Thomas K. Maycock, North Carolina State University; Andrea L. McCarrick, North Carolina State University; Alexis Visovatti, North Carolina State University
Contributors: Jessicca Allen, Visual Communications Lead and PDF Layout, North Carolina State University; Jeff Bliss, Data Explorer Tool Development, National Environmental Mapping and Applications Center; Amy Camper, Visual Communications and PDF Layout, Innovative Consulting & Management Services, LLC; Ryan Cox, Web Application Engineer, North Carolina State University; Jacquelyn Crossman, Citation Management, NOAA NCEI Librarian, MPF-ZAI; Greg Dobson, GIS and Figure Development, National Environmental Mapping and Applications Center; David R. Easterling, Advisor, Future Climate, LLC, and Earth Knowledge, Inc.; Aaron Goodman, Web Developer, North Carolina State University; Katharine M. Johnson, Web Team Lead and GIS Analyst, North Carolina State University; Kenneth E. Kunkel, Advisor and Principal Research Scholar, North Carolina State University; Ciara R. Lemery, Figure and Production Coordination, Independent Contractor; Angel Li, Web Developer, North Carolina State University; Dave Michelson, Data Explorer Tool Development, National Environmental Mapping and Applications Center; Ronald Opio, Data Analysis and Figure Development, North Carolina State University; Xia Sun, Data Analysis and Figure Development, North Carolina State University; Xiangdong Zhang, Advisor, North Carolina State University
Acknowledgements: Tamara Houston, Regional Climate Center Review Coordination, NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information; Melissa Widhalm, Midwest Region Expert Review, Midwestern Regional Climate Center, Purdue University
Recommended Citation: Stevens, L.E., J. Anheuser, M.R. Essig, A.D. Lamb, T.K. Maycock, A.L. McCarrick, and A. Visovatti, 2026: 2025 State Climate Summaries for the United States: Kentucky. [Update to Runkle et al., 2022: Kentucky State Climate Summary 2022.] North Carolina Institute for Climate Studies Report NCICS-001-KY. North Carolina State University, Asheville, NC. https://doi.org/10.52750/136095

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