Louisiana is located between the Gulf of America (formerly Gulf of Mexico) and the southern end of the vast, relatively flat plains of central North America. The state is therefore exposed to the influences of diverse air masses, including the warm, moist air over the gulf and the drier continental air masses, which are cold in the winter and warm in the summer. Additionally, clockwise circulation of air around a semipermanent high-pressure system in the North Atlantic (known as the Bermuda High) causes a persistent southerly flow of air off the gulf during the warmer half of the year. Louisiana’s climate is characterized by relatively short and mild winters, hot and humid summers, and year-round precipitation. The gulf helps moderate the climate in the southern portion of the state, while temperatures and precipitation are more variable in the north. Average summer high temperatures exceed 90°F across most of the state, with northern areas such as Shreveport often exceeding 100°F (1991–2020 averages). Average winter lows are above freezing throughout Louisiana, ranging from around 35°F in the north to more than 45°F in the south. Extreme temperatures range from a record high of 114°F at Plain Dealing (August 10, 1936) to a record low of −16°F at Minden (February 13, 1899). Annual precipitation ranges from around 50 inches in the north to around 70 inches at some locations in the southeast.
Time series of observed and projected temperature change (in degrees Fahrenheit) for Louisiana from 1900 to 2100 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from negative 4 to positive 16 degrees. Observed annual temperatures from 1900 to 2024 show variability and range from negative 2.3 to positive 3.0 degrees. By the end of the century, projected increases in temperature range from 1.6 to 6.3 degrees under the lower emissions pathway, from 3.5 to 8.7 degrees under the intermediate pathway, and from 7.0 to 14.0 degrees under the higher pathway.
Annual average temperatures in Louisiana have risen rapidly since the 1970s, with the last decade (2015–2024) being the warmest on record (Figure 1). However, Louisiana and neighboring states in the southeastern US are among the few locations globally that have experienced relatively little overall warming since 1900. Louisiana has seen a series of shifting trends—warming from the early 20th century into the 1930s, then substantial cooling until the 1970s, followed by the recent rapid warming—resulting in a net increase since 1900 of a little more than 0.5°F, compared to 2.2°F for the contiguous US as a whole. Hypothesized causes for this difference in warming rates in parts of the Southeast US include increased cloud cover and precipitation, increased small particles from coal burning, natural factors related to forest regrowth, decreased heat flux due to irrigation, and multidecadal variability in North Atlantic and tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures.
In Louisiana, the number of very hot days was mostly above average in the first half of the 20th century but generally below average from the late 1950s to the early 1990s. Since the late 1990s, the number of very hot days has begun to increase but has generally remained near or below average (Figure 2a). By contrast, the number of very warm nights has shown an upward trend since the late 1950s, with the highest 5-year average recorded for the 2020–2024 period (Figure 2b). The number of freezing days (maximum temperature of 32°F or lower) is relatively low in Louisiana and has shown wide variability over the 20th century but has generally been below average since the 1990s (Figure 3). While the recent trend is toward fewer extremely cold events, a historic cold wave affected the state during February 11–20, 2021. In the northwestern part of the state, temperatures remained below freezing for five consecutive days and fell into the 0°–10°F range. Severe icing caused widespread damage.
Two graphs of the observed annual number of (a) very hot days and (b) very warm nights for Louisiana from 1900 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Panel A: Very Hot Days
Y-axis values range from 0 to 80 days. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 2.4 to 67.0 days. Five-year values also show variability and are all above the long-term average of 30.0 days between 1900 and 1954 but are all below average between 1955 and 1989. Since 1990, 5-year values are above average for the 1995 to 1999, 2010 to 2014, and 2020 to 2024 periods but are below average for the remaining periods. The 1970 to 1974 period has the lowest 5-year value at 13.4 days, and the 1950 to 1954 period has the highest at 46.7 days.
Panel B: Very Warm NightsY-axis values range from 0 to 80 nights. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 1.9 to 69.1 nights. Five-year values also show variability and are all near or below the long-term average of 22.5 nights between 1900 and 1994 except for the 1930 to 1934 and 1980 to 1984 periods. All 5-year values since 1995 are above average. The 1910 to 1914 and 1915 to 1919 periods have the lowest 5-year values at 9.5 and 9.2 nights, respectively, and the 2010 to 2014, 2015 to 2019, and 2020 to 2024 periods have the highest at 41.3, 47.0, and 56.3 nights, respectively.
Graph of the observed annual number of freezing days for Louisiana from 1900 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from 0 to 6 days. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0 to 5.0 days. Five-year values also show variability and are mostly near or below the long-term average of 0.6 days between 1900 and 1959, mostly above average between 1960 and 1989, and mostly near or below average since 1990. The 1955 to 1959 period has the lowest 5-year value at 0.0 days, and the 1960 to 1964 and 1985 to 1989 periods have the highest at 1.8 and 1.7 days, respectively.
Louisiana receives abundant rainfall throughout the year and has the highest annual precipitation of any state in the contiguous US. Statewide total annual precipitation has ranged from a low of 36.6 inches in 1924 to a high of 79.5 inches in 1991 (Figure 4). Annual precipitation has generally been near or above average since the 1970s, with the 2015–2019 period being the wettest on record. Spring precipitation and fall precipitation have been highly variable (Figures 5a and 5b). Spring precipitation shows no long-term trend, while fall precipitation has generally been near or above average since the 1970s. Snowfall is rare near the gulf but can occur occasionally in the northern part of the state during incursions of Arctic air masses. In late January 2025, a rare snowstorm struck southern Louisiana. Snowfall totals for some areas exceeded 10 inches, breaking records that had stood since a historic storm in 1895. Despite the lack of a distinct dry season, Louisiana experiences occasional episodes of drought. Northern parishes are particularly susceptible to agricultural droughts, in which decreases in soil moisture (caused by a combined shortage of precipitation and excess evapotranspiration) can lead to negative impacts on crop production.
Graph of observed total annual precipitation for Louisiana from 1895 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from 30 to 90 inches. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 36.6 to 79.5 inches. Five-year values also show variability and are mostly near or below the long-term average of 57.2 inches between 1895 to 1969 but are all above average since 1970 except for 2005 to 2009 and 2010 to 2014 periods. The 1900 to 1904 period has the lowest 5-year value at 50.9 inches, and the 2015 to 2019 period has the highest at 65.3 inches.
Two graphs of the observed total (a) spring and (b) fall precipitation for Louisiana from 1895 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Panel A: Total Spring Precipitation
Y-axis values range from 4 to 32 inches. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 5.8 to 29.0 inches. Five-year values also show variability, fluctuating above and below the long-term average of 14.8 inches across the entire period and showing no clear long-term trend. The 1895 to 1899 period has the lowest 5-year value at 10.3 inches, and the 1990 to 1994, 2015 to 2019, and 2020 to 2024 periods have the highest at 18.1, 18.8, and 18.1 inches, respectively.
Panel B: Total Fall PrecipitationY-axis values range from 0 to 24 inches. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 2.5 to 22.5 inches. Five-year values also show variability and are mostly below the long-term average of 12.1 inches between 1895 and 1969, all near or above average between 1970 and 2009, and all near or below average since 2010. The 1900 to 1904 and 1950 to 1954 periods have the lowest 5-year values at 8.3 and 8.2 inches, and the 2000 to 2004 period has the highest at 17.5 inches.
The number of 4-inch extreme precipitation events has generally been near or above average since the 1980s, with a record-high annual value recorded in 2016; however, the 2005–2009 and 2010–2014 periods were below average (Figure 6). In the contiguous US, Louisiana is second only to Florida in frequency of thunderstorms, with most of the state averaging more than 60 days per year with thunderstorm activity and southeastern parts of the state seeing more than 90 days per year (1993–2018 averages). Severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes occur throughout the year but less frequently in the summer months.
Graph of the observed annual number of 4-inch extreme precipitation events for Louisiana from 1900 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from 0.0 to 2.5 events. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0 to 2.2 events. Five-year values also show variability and are mostly below the long-term average of 0.7 events between 1900 and 1979 but are mostly near or above average since 1980. The 1915 to 1919 and 1935 to 1939 periods have the lowest 5-year values at 0.4 events each, and the 2015 to 2019 period has the highest at 1.3 events.
The Louisiana coast is particularly vulnerable to tropical cyclones, with more than 60 hurricanes affecting the state since 1900 (Figure 7). In August 2005, Hurricane Katrina (a Category 3 storm at landfall) caused massive damage from storm surge flooding in the eastern part of the state. New Orleans was particularly hard hit, with more than 80% of the city flooded and some areas under as much as 15 feet of water. Katrina caused more than 1,500 fatalities in the state, as well as immense property damage, and was the costliest hurricane on record in the United States, with over $200 billion in damages (adjusted for inflation). Four hurricanes made landfall in Louisiana in 2020, the strongest being Hurricane Laura (Category 4). Hurricane Ida made landfall on August 29, 2021, causing $84 billion dollars in damages, making it one of the costliest US hurricanes on record. Laura and Ida were the strongest hurricanes to make landfall in Louisiana since 1856, with both having wind speeds of around 150 mph. The number of landfalling Atlantic hurricanes is not expected to rise. However, rainfall rates from such storms, as well as the proportion of time they spend as major hurricanes, are projected to increase.
The state is particularly susceptible to coastal flooding from storm surges caused by hurricanes and other powerful storms. Hurricane Katrina caused storm surge flooding of 10 to 20 feet above normal high-tide levels in the New Orleans area, leading to catastrophic flooding when several levees were breached. Storm surges in Louisiana tend to reach greater heights along the southeastern coast due to a funneling effect caused by the typical path of tropical cyclones through the central Gulf of America. The risk of storm surge flooding along the Louisiana coast is expected to increase in the future due to a combination of sea level rise, land subsidence, the loss of coastal wetlands, and strengthening hurricanes.
Graph of the total number of hurricane events for Louisiana from 1900 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from 0 to 8 events. Five-year totals show variability across the period of record and range from 0 to 7 events, with the majority of 5-year totals at 2 events. Louisiana experienced hurricane events during every 5-year period except for 1980 to 1984. Five-year periods with the highest number of events have occurred since the late 1980s: 7 events each for the 1985 to 1989 and 2005 to 2009 periods and 6 for the 2020 to 2024 period.
Inland flooding is also a hazard, particularly for regions along the Mississippi River. In May 2011, one of the worst floods in Louisiana history affected the Lower Mississippi Valley. To control the massive flooding, the Morganza Spillway was opened for only the second time (the first was in 1973) to protect levees and prevent flooding downstream in Baton Rouge and New Orleans. In August 2016, a historic flooding event produced rainfall totals ranging from 20 to more than 30 inches over several days and exceeded 500-year flood amounts in some locations. More than 30,000 people were rescued from floodwaters that damaged or destroyed more than 50,000 homes, 100,000 vehicles, and 20,000 businesses. With damages estimated at more than $10 billion dollars, this was one of the costliest US flood events in history.
Under the intermediate and higher emissions pathways, historically unprecedented warming is projected during this century (Figure 1). Even under the lower emissions pathway, most projections show annual average temperatures exceeding historical levels by the middle of the century. However, projections for all three pathways show a large range of potential temperature increases, and some projections for the lower pathway are comparable to recent observed values. Heat wave intensity is projected to increase, while the intensity of cold waves is projected to decrease.
Under the intermediate emissions pathway, projections indicate increases in total annual precipitation across most of Louisiana but decreases in the southwestern corner; however, the projected changes are not statistically significant (Figure 8). There is similar uncertainty in seasonal precipitation, although models generally indicate statewide increases in winter and increases and decreases in spring, summer, and fall.
Map of the contiguous United States showing the projected changes in total annual precipitation by the middle of this century as described in the caption. The state of Louisiana is outlined in black.
Legend values range from less than negative 10 to greater than positive 15 percent. Note: unless otherwise specified, projected values are not statistically significant.
Louisiana
The majority of Louisiana is projected to see increases in total annual precipitation of up to 5 percent, while the southwest corner is projected to see decreases of up to 5 percent.
Contiguous US
Projected increases in total annual precipitation are as follows: up to 5 percent for most of the Southeast, as well as the central Midwest, central Great Plains, central West, and Northwest; and 5 to 10 percent for all of the Northeast, as well as portions of the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, northern Midwest, northern Great Plains, and Pacific Northwest, with statistically significant increases in the 5 to 10 percent range for the Northeast, northeastern Midwest, and portions of the northern Great Plains and Pacific Northwest.
Projected decreases of up to 5 percent are expected across most of Texas, New Mexico, and Arizona, as well as southern California.
Droughts, a natural part of Louisiana’s climate, are projected to increase in intensity due to higher temperatures and the associated increase in evaporation rates and soil moisture loss.
Louisiana is at extreme risk for sea level rise. On average, the state’s coastline experienced about 15 inches of sea level rise between 1970 and 2020—more than double the amount for the contiguous US as a whole—and projections under the Intermediate sea level scenario show additional increases of about 17 inches by 2050 and 2.5 feet by 2070 (Figure 9). Across the five scenarios shown in Figure 9, the projected increases from 2020 to 2070 range from about 1.5 to 4.5 feet. Rising sea levels pose a threat to the state’s coastal communities, infrastructure, and ecosystems. These risks are increased by Louisiana’s low elevation, which averages only 3 feet in the southeastern part of the state. Additionally, the coastline is rapidly subsiding (sinking). Coastal Louisiana lost almost 2,000 square miles of land from 1932 to 2020 due to subsidence, rising sea levels, and other factors such as reduced sediment deposition due to the engineering of rivers. The New Orleans metropolitan area, the most populous in the state, is at particular risk. Rising sea levels present major challenges to Louisiana’s existing coastal water management system and could cause extensive economic, social, and cultural damage through ecosystem degradation and losses in property, tourism, and agriculture.
Sea level rise has caused an increase in high-tide floods associated with nuisance-level impacts, which are occurring more frequently, even on sunny days. High-tide flooding occurs when one or more factors—sea level rise, winds, changes in ocean currents, full or new moons—push water levels above the normal high-tide mark. These events can damage infrastructure, cause road closures, and overwhelm storm drains. High-tide flooding has increased in all US coastal areas, with more rapid increases along the East and Gulf Coasts, and is likely to occur more frequently in Louisiana as global and local sea levels continue to rise.
Two time series of observed and projected relative sea level change for (a) the contiguous US and (b) Louisiana from 1970 to 2070 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from negative 1 to positive 6 feet for both graphs. Legends in both graphs denote sources of historical data and scenarios for projections. Line colors for historical data are black for tide gauge data and orange for satellite data. Line and shading colors for projections based on five scenarios are as follows: light blue, Low; medium blue, Intermediate-Low; dark blue, Intermediate; yellow, Intermediate-High; and dark orange, High.
Panel A: Contiguous US
Tide gauge and satellite data generally show increases but with year-to-year variability. Projected data show increases under all scenarios. Tide gauge values range from a minimum of negative 0.3 feet in 1976 to a maximum of 0.4 feet in 2023. Satellite values range from a minimum of 0.0 feet in 1994 to a maximum of positive 0.4 feet in 2023. Projected sea level median values (lines) for the Low scenario range from 0.3 feet in 2020 to 1.1 feet in 2070, compared to 0.4 feet in 2020 to 3.1 feet in 2070 for the High scenario. Likely ranges (shading) become wider over the period shown. The range of likely values in 2070 for each of the five scenarios are as follows: Low scenario, from 0.9 to 1.4 feet; Intermediate-Low, 1.2 to 1.7 feet; Intermediate, 1.5 to 2.2 feet; Intermediate-High, 1.8 to 3.1 feet; and High, 2.4 to 3.8 feet.
Panel B: Louisiana
The tide gauge line shows an increase higher than that in the contiguous US graph, while the satellite line show a lower increase. All projected lines are higher than those in the contiguous US graph. Tide gauge values range from a minimum of negative 0.8 feet in 1970 to a maximum of positive 0.8 feet in 2024. Satellite values range from a minimum of 0.0 feet in 2006 to a maximum of 0.6 feet in 2020. Projected sea level median values (lines) for the Low scenario range from 0.7 feet in 2020 to 2.6 feet in 2070, compared to 0.7 feet in 2020 to 4.7 feet in 2070 for the High scenario. Likely ranges (shading) become wider over the period shown. The range of likely values in 2070 for each of the five scenarios are as follows: Low scenario, from 2.3 to 2.8 feet; Intermediate-Low, 2.6 to 3.1 feet; Intermediate, 2.9 to 3.6 feet; Intermediate-High, 3.3 to 4.5 feet; and High, 3.8 to 5.3 feet.
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