Massachusetts is located on the eastern edge of the North American continent. Its northerly latitude and geographic location expose the state to both the moderating and moistening influence of the Atlantic Ocean and the effects of hot and cold air masses from the interior of the continent. Its climate is characterized by cold, snowy winters and warm summers. The state's proximity to the jet stream gives it highly variable weather patterns, wide-ranging daily and annual temperatures, and generally abundant precipitation throughout the year. Massachusetts constitutes approximately one-eighth of New England's total land area (8,257 square miles). Although small in size and with forestland covering more than half of the state, Massachusetts is home to more than 7 million residents. The topography, varying from the flat coastal plains in the east to hillier and higher terrain in the west, provides some regional variations in climate. For the most part, summer temperatures are comfortably warm and relatively uniform across the state. Summer high temperatures range from the mid-70s (°F) to the low 80s (1991–2020 averages), with western portions of the state being cooler and eastern portions being warmer. Winter low temperatures are more variable, ranging from less than 20°F in the west to near 30°F near the coast. Annual average precipitation varies from around 45 to 55 inches across the state. Annual average snowfall ranges from less than 20 inches in Cape Cod to more than 75 inches in northern parts of the state.
Time series of observed and projected temperature change (in degrees Fahrenheit) for Massachusetts from 1900 to 2100 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from negative 4 to positive 18 degrees. Observed annual temperatures from 1900 to 2024 show variability and range from negative 3.4 to positive 4.7 degrees. By the end of the century, projected increases in temperature range from 1.8 to 8.1 degrees under the lower emissions pathway, from 3.7 to 10.2 degrees under the intermediate pathway, and from 8.4 to 16.5 degrees under the higher pathway.
Annual average temperatures in Massachusetts have increased about 3.5°F since the beginning of the 20th century (Figure 1). The warmest years on record for the state were 2012 and 2023 (tied at 51.3°F, which is 3.9°F above the 130-year average), with 2024 following closely behind (at 51.2°F). The number of hot days has generally been near or above the long-term (1950–2024) average since the late 1980s (Figure 2a). The number of warm nights has shown an upward trend since the 1960s, with the 2020–2024 period having the highest 5-year average at more than double the long-term average (Figure 2b). Changes in extreme low temperatures also reflect this warming trend. The number of very cold nights has predominantly been below average since the 1990s (Figure 3).
Two sets of paired graphs of the observed annual number of (a) hot days and (b) warm nights for Massachusetts (top) from 1950 to 2024 and for the contiguous United States (bottom) from 1900 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Annual and 5-year values show variability in all graphs.
Panel A: Hot Days
Massachusetts
Y-axis values range from 0 to 24 days. Annual values range from 0.8 to 21.1 days. Five-year values are all near or below the long-term average of 7.3 days from 1950 to 1984 but are all near or above average since 1985 except for the 2005 to 2009 period. The 1960 to 1964 period has the lowest 5-year value at 5.1 days, and the 2015 to 2019 and 2020 to 2024 periods have the highest at 10.45 and 10.5 days, respectively.
Contiguous US
Y-axis values range from 20 to 60 days. Annual values range from 20.7 to 57.7 days. Five-year values are below 34 days between 1900 and 1919, all near or above 36 days between 1910 and 1959, and all near or below 36 days since 1960 except for the 2010 to 2014 and 2020 to 2024 periods, which are slightly above 36 days. The 1965 to 1969 period has the lowest 5-year value at 29.6 days, and the 1930 to 1934 and 1935 to 1939 periods have the highest at 48.2 and 46.7 days, respectively.
Panel B: Warm Nights
Massachusetts
Y-axis values range from 0 to 14 nights. Annual values range from 0 to 12.6 nights. Five-year values are all near or below the long-term average of 3.7 nights between 1955 and 1999 but are all above average since 2000. The 1960 to 1964 period has the lowest 5-year value at 1.5 nights, and the 2020 to 2024 period has the highest at 9.3 nights.
Contiguous US
Y-axis values range from 4 to 28 nights. Annual values range from 7.5 to 26.2 nights. Five-year values are mostly near or below 16 nights between 1900 and 1994. Exceptions include the 1930 to 1934 and 1935 to 1939 periods with more than 18 nights. An upward trend is evident since the 1970 to 1974 period, which has the lowest 5-year value at 12.1 nights. All 5-year values since 1995 are above 18 nights. The 2010 to 2014 period has the highest 5-year value at 20.4 nights.
Paired graphs of the observed annual number of very cold nights for Massachusetts (top) from 1950 to 2024 and for the contiguous United States (bottom) from 1900 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Annual and 5-year values show variability in both graphs.
Massachusetts
Y-axis values range from 0 to 24 nights. Annual values range from 0.5 to 19.0 nights. Five-year values are below the long-term average of 7.4 nights from 1950 to 1959, all above average from 1956 to 1989, and all below average since 1990 except for the 2000 to 2004 and 2015 to 2019 periods. The 2020 to 2024 period has the lowest 5-year value at 2.5 nights, and the 1960 to 1964 period has the highest at 12.6 nights.
Contiguous US
Y-axis values range from 0 to 24 nights. Annual values range from 3.9 to 20.0 nights. Five-year values are all near or above 10 nights between 1900 and 2024, but are all below 10 nights since 1990 except for the 2010 to 2010 to 2014 period. The 2020 to 2024 period has the lowest 5-year value at 7.6 nights, and the 1915 to 1919 and 1975 to 1979 periods have the highest at 15.1 and 15.6 nights, respectively.
Precipitation is abundant but highly variable from year to year. Statewide total annual precipitation has ranged from a low of 29.4 inches in 1965 to a high of 61.0 inches in 2018 (Figure 4a). Annual precipitation has generally been above average since the 1970s. Summer precipitation has generally been near or above average since the 1970s (Figure 4b). Massachusetts experienced the largest number of 2-inch extreme precipitation events from 2005 to 2014 and during the late 1990s (Figure 5). In March 2010 alone, three intense rainstorms led to extensive flooding throughout the state and southern New England, with estimated damages exceeding $2 billion. The heaviest rain fell in eastern Massachusetts, with more than 19 inches recorded near Jamaica Plain, Middleton, and Winchester. More recently, on September 11, 2023, storms brought nearly 10 inches of rainfall to parts of Massachusetts.
Two graphs of the observed total (a) annual and (b) summer precipitation for Massachusetts from 1895 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Panel A: Total Annual Precipitation
Y-axis values range from 24 to 64 inches. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 29.4 to 61.0 inches. Five-year values also show variability and are mostly near or below the long-term average of 45.6 inches between 1895 and 1969 but are all near or above average since 1970. The 1910 to 1914 period has the lowest 5-year value at 39.5 inches, and the 2005 to 2009 period has the highest at 53.5 inches.
Panel B: Total Summer Precipitation
Y-axis values range from 4 to 22 inches. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 5.8 to 19.7 inches. Five-year values also show variability and are mostly near or below the long-term average of 11.6 inches between 1895 and 1974 but are all near or above average since 1970 except for the 1980 to 1984 and 1995 to 1999 periods. The 1910 to 1914 period has the lowest 5-year value at 9.0 inches, and the 2005 to 2009 and 2010 to 2014 periods have the highest at 13.9 and 13.7 inches, respectively.
Paired graphs of the observed annual number of 2-inch extreme precipitation events for Massachusetts (top) from 1950 to 2024 and for the contiguous United States (bottom) from 1900 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Annual and 5-year values show variability in both graphs.
Massachusetts
Y-axis values range from 0 to 5 events. Annual values range from 0.4 to 4.3 events. Five-year values are all near or below the long-term average of 2.1 events between 1950 and 1984 but are mostly above average since 1985. The 1960 to 1964 period has the lowest 5-year value at 1.4 events, and the 2005 to 2009 and 2010 to 2014 periods have the highest at 2.84 and 2.82 events, respectively.
Contiguous US
Y-axis values range from 1.0 to 3.0 events. Annual values range from 1.1 to 2.5 events. Five-year values are above 1.7 events between 1990 and 1909 but are all near or below 1.7 events between 1910 and 1989. An upward trend is evident since the early 1950s. All 5-year values since 1990 are above 1.7 events. The 1930 to 1934 period has the lowest 5-year value at 1.5 events, and the 2015 to 2020 period has the highest at 2.3 events.
The state experienced extreme drought (as defined by the US Drought Monitor) during 2016–2017, 2020, 2022, and 2024, straining water supplies, impacting crop production, and increasing wildfire risk.
Massachusetts experiences several types of extreme weather events, including heavy precipitation, flooding, and severe storms (coastal, winter, and thunderstorms). The state's coastline is also highly vulnerable to damage from powerful tropical storms and hurricanes, as well as nor'easters—cold-season coastal storms that can generate a tremendous amount of precipitation (in the form of snow, sleet, or freezing rain), strong winds, coastal flooding, and damage to infrastructure. In late October 2021, a nor'easter brought winds of 60–90 mph to coastal Massachusetts, knocking out power to nearly half a million people. In March 2023, a powerful nor'easter brought more than 30 inches of heavy, wet snow to parts of western Massachusetts, causing widespread power outages that lasted up to two days. In 2012, Superstorm Sandy (a post-tropical storm) was one of the most extreme and destructive events to affect the northeastern United States and the fifth-costliest US disaster on record. Massachusetts was one of more than a dozen northeastern states impacted by Sandy. Storm impacts included strong winds, record-high storm tides (a storm surge combined with an already-present tide), flooding of some coastal areas, and loss of power for 385,000 residents. The state suffered more than $300 million in property losses alone. A year earlier, Hurricane Irene, dubbed the "costliest Category 1 storm" (with more than $15 billion in damages), swept through northern New England. Irene's most severe impact was catastrophic inland flooding in New Jersey, Massachusetts, and Vermont. A number of weather stations in central and western Massachusetts recorded more than 4 inches of rainfall during August 27–29, 2011, with a few locations exceeding 7 inches, including Granville Dam and Westhampton. The number of landfalling Atlantic hurricanes is not expected to rise. However, rainfall rates from such storms, as well as the proportion of time they spend as major hurricanes, are projected to increase.
The state experienced a severe winter in 2014–15, when the eastern United States was one of the few places globally with lower-than-normal temperatures. Heavy snowfall was the most prominent feature, with Boston setting several records, including highest seasonal snowfall (110 inches) and snowiest month on record (February 2015). The winter average temperature was tied for the 28th coldest for Massachusetts. More recently, on February 4, 2023, a large area of low pressure and cold Arctic air (known as the polar vortex) brought extreme cold to the state; the low temperature at Boston's Logan International Airport was –10°F—the site's first negative double-digit temperature since 1957.
Under the intermediate and higher emissions pathways, historically unprecedented warming is projected during this century (Figure 1). Even under the lower emissions pathway, most projections show annual average temperatures exceeding historical levels by the middle of the century. However, projections for all three pathways show a large range of potential temperature increases, and some projections for the lower pathway are comparable to recent observed values. Heat waves are projected to increase in intensity, while cold waves are projected to become less intense. Massachusetts's densely populated urban areas are particularly vulnerable to extreme heat. Heat absorbed and emitted by buildings and pavement, as well as other aspects of urban environments, makes cities even warmer than the surrounding countryside, a phenomenon known as the urban heat island effect. Excessive heat exposure is expected to contribute to more heat-related illnesses and, in severe cases, deaths.
Under the intermediate emissions pathway, statistically significant increases are projected in total annual precipitation and winter precipitation (Figure 6) across the state by midcentury. There is uncertainty in projections for spring, summer, and fall precipitation. Due to rising temperatures, winter precipitation is generally expected to fall as rain rather than snow, and there will be earlier lake ice-out dates and a reduction in winter snowpack. The frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events are also projected to increase, potentially increasing risks of coastal and inland flooding.
Map of the contiguous United States showing the projected changes in total winter precipitation by the middle of this century as described in the caption. A blowup map of the state of Massachusetts appears to the right of the contiguous US.
Legend values range from less than negative 10 to greater than positive 15 percent. Note: unless otherwise specified, projected values are not statistically significant.
Massachusetts
The entire state of Massachusetts is projected to see statistically significant increases in total winter precipitation of 5 to 15 percent.
Contiguous US
Projected increases in total winter precipitation are as follows: up to 5 percent across a narrow swath running westward from western Georgia to southern California; 5 to 10 percent in the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, southern Midwest, portions of the Great Plains, and most of the West; and 10 to 15 percent in the majority of the Northeast and upper Midwest as well as portions of the northern Great Plains and Intermountain West, with statistically significant increases in the 10 to 15 percent range for the Northeast, the northernmost regions of the upper Midwest, and portions of the northern Great Plains.
Projected decreases are as follows: up to 5 percent for southern regions of the Southwest and northern and central Texas; 5 to 10 percent for southern New Mexico and western Texas; and 5 to 10 percent or greater for southwestern Texas.
Increased evaporation rates from higher temperatures, alterations in the timing and amount of streamflow following reductions in snowpack, and changes in the amount, timing, and type of precipitation are projected to make naturally occurring droughts more intense.
Coastal communities in Massachusetts are particularly vulnerable to sea level rise and coastal storm surge. On average, the state experienced about 7 inches of sea level rise between 1970 and 2020—compared to 6 inches for the contiguous US as a whole—and projections under the Intermediate sea level scenario show additional increases of about 11 inches by 2050 and 1.7 feet by 2070 (Figure 7). Across the five scenarios shown in Figure 7, the projected increases from 2020 to 2070 range from about 1 to 3.5 feet. Land in the state is naturally subsiding (sinking), exacerbating sea level rise. Sea level rise erodes beaches and other shorelines, reduces drinking water supplies through saltwater intrusion, and increases flood risks during storms—damaging roads and homes and displacing residents. These impacts have important future implications for the state's economy, public health, natural resources, and infrastructure.
Two time series of observed and projected relative sea level change for (a) the contiguous US and (b) Massachusetts from 1970 to 2070 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from negative 1 to positive 4 feet for both graphs. Legends in both graphs denote sources of historical data and scenarios for projections. Line colors for historical data are black for tide gauge data and orange for satellite data. Line and shading colors for projections based on five scenarios are as follows: light blue, Low; medium blue, Intermediate-Low; dark blue, Intermediate; yellow, Intermediate-High; and dark orange, High.
Panel A: Contiguous US
Tide gauge and satellite data generally show increases but with year-to-year variability. Projected data show increases under all scenarios. Tide gauge values range from a minimum of negative 0.3 feet in 1976 to a maximum of positive 0.4 feet in 2023. Satellite values range from a minimum of 0.0 feet in 1994 to a maximum of 0.4 feet in 2023. Projected sea level median values (lines) for the Low scenario range from 0.3 feet in 2020 to 1.1 feet in 2070, compared to 0.4 feet in 2020 to 3.1 feet in 2070 for the High scenario. Likely ranges (shading) become wider over the period shown. The range of likely values in 2070 for each of the five scenarios are as follows: Low scenario, from 0.9 to 1.4 feet; Intermediate-Low, 1.2 to 1.7 feet; Intermediate, 1.5 to 2.2 feet; Intermediate-High, 1.8 to 3.1 feet; and High, 2.4 to 3.8 feet.
Panel B: Massachusetts
All historical and future scenario lines show increases higher than those in the contiguous US graph. Tide gauge values range from a minimum of negative 0.3 feet in 1976 to a maximum of positive 0.6 feet in 2024. Satellite values range from a minimum of negative 0.1 feet in 1994 to a maximum of positive 0.5 feet in 2024. Projected sea level median values (lines) for the Low scenario range from 0.4 feet in 2020 to 1.4 feet in 2070, compared to 0.4 feet in 2020 to 3.2 feet in 2070 for the High scenario. Likely ranges (shading) become wider over the period shown. The range of likely values in 2070 for each of the five scenarios are as follows: Low scenario, from 1.0 to 1.8 feet; Intermediate-Low, 1.3 to 2.1 feet; Intermediate, 1.7 to 2.6 feet; Intermediate-High, 2.0 to 3.3 feet; and High, 2.4 to 3.9 feet.
Sea level rise has caused an increase in high-tide floods associated with nuisance-level impacts, which are occurring more frequently, even on sunny days. High-tide flooding occurs when one or more factors—sea level rise, winds, changes in ocean currents, full or new moons—push water levels above the normal high-tide mark. These events can damage infrastructure, cause road closures, and overwhelm storm drains. High-tide flooding has increased in all US coastal areas, with more rapid increases along the East and Gulf Coasts, and is likely to occur more frequently in Massachusetts as global and local sea levels continue to rise. The number of high-tide flood days has increased at Boston, with the greatest numbers occurring in 2009 and 2017. Under both the Intermediate-Low and Intermediate scenarios, high-tide floods are projected to occur much more frequently in future years (Figure 8).
Graph of the observed and projected annual number of high-tide flood days at Boston, Massachusetts, from 1921 to 2100 (top), including a magnified view of the observed data for the period 1921 to 2024 (bottom), as described in the caption.
A legend shows annual observations (orange bars) and projected 19-year averages (two-colored bars) for the Intermediate-Low (medium blue) and Intermediate (dark blue) sea level scenarios.
Bottom
Y-axis labels for the magnified view range from 0 to 20 days per year. Following the first recorded event in 1925 until the early 1950s, high-tide flooding was sporadic, often with gaps of 1 to 3 years between events and annual values all below 4 days. From the 1950s into the 1990s, high-tide flood days increased in frequency and number. Starting in 1999, high-tide flood days occurred every year, with a record high of 22 days in both 2009 and 2017.
Top
Y-axis labels range from 0 to 350 days, with a horizontal dashed gray line indicating 365 days. Boston is projected to experience 60 to 70 high-tide flood days per year by 2050 under the Intermediate-Low and Intermediate scenarios, respectively, and 200 to 350 days by 2100.
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