Maryland and the District of Columbia (DC) are located on the eastern coast of North America. Their geographic locations expose them to both the cold winter and warm summer air masses from the continental interior and the moderate and moist air masses from the Atlantic Ocean. Maryland and DC's climates are characterized by moderately cold, occasionally snowy winters and warm, humid summers. Midlatitude storm tracks and the proximity of the jet stream also influence weather patterns, often resulting in highly variable conditions in the late fall, winter, and spring. Low-pressure storms associated with the jet stream bring frequent precipitation. In winter, the contrasting influences of cold air masses from the interior of the continent and moist air masses from the Atlantic Ocean provide the energy for occasional intense storms commonly known as nor'easters—cold-season coastal storms that can generate a tremendous amount of precipitation (in the form of snow, sleet, or freezing rain), strong winds, coastal flooding, and damage to infrastructure. Annual precipitation varies from about 40 inches in western Maryland to more than 45 inches in some eastern parts of the state (1991–2020 averages). High-elevation locations in the Appalachian Mountains can receive greater than 50 inches. The District of Columbia receives 42 inches of rain per year on average. Maryland has a west–east contrast in temperature. Larger seasonal variations occur in the highland west in the Appalachian Mountains, while temperatures in the east are moderated by the Chesapeake Bay and the Atlantic. Winter low temperatures range from less than 15°F in high-elevation regions to around 32°F in southern and eastern parts of the state. Summer high temperatures range from less than 75°F in the Appalachian Mountains to more than 85°F in some coastal locations.
The Chesapeake Bay, which divides Maryland in the east, is the largest estuary in North America and one of the most productive in the world, with more than 64,000 square miles of watershed. This area is particularly vulnerable to climate change in several ways: through sea level rise, changes in river discharge from precipitation extremes, increased water temperatures, and potential acidification (ocean and biological). Increasing urban development, excessive pollution levels, and changes in water temperature and salinity have impacted some plant and animal species, affecting Chesapeake Bay area ecosystems.
Time series of observed and projected temperature change (in degrees Fahrenheit) for Maryland from 1900 to 2100 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from negative 4 to positive 18 degrees. Observed annual temperatures from 1900 to 2024 show variability and range from negative 3.1 to positive 3.9 degrees. By the end of the century, projected increases in temperature range from 2.2 to 7.8 degrees under the lower emissions pathway, from 4.3 to 10.0 degrees under the intermediate pathway, and from 8.1 to 15.9 degrees under the higher pathway.
Annual average temperatures in Maryland have increased more than 2.5°F since the beginning of the 20th century (Figure 1). The warmest year on record was 2024. July 2020 was the hottest month on record, with a statewide average temperature of 80.1°F. Baltimore saw an average temperature of 82.6°F that month, resulting in the city's warmest month on record, with the second-warmest month occurring in July 2024. Since the 1950s, the number of very hot days for Maryland and DC shows no long-term trend (Figure 2a). The number of very warm nights, however, has been increasing, with the three highest 5-year averages recorded between 2010 and 2024 (Figure 2b). For DC specifically, there has been no overall trend in very hot days (Figure 3; red bars), but the number of very warm nights (Figure 3; orange bars) has been increasing since the late 1980s. Very cold nights are rare in Maryland and DC, but a winter warming trend is reflected in a generally below-average number of such nights since the 1990s (Figure 4).
Two sets of paired graphs of the observed annual number of (a) very hot days and (b) very warm nights for Maryland and the District of Columbia (top) from 1950 to 2024 and for the contiguous United States (bottom) from 1900 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Annual and 5-year values show variability in all graphs.
Panel A: Very Hot Days
Maryland and the District of Columbia
Y-axis values range from 0 to 24 days. Annual values range from 0.1 to 20.6 days. Five-year values are all below the long-term average of 6.2 days between 1955 and 1984; the 1950 to 1954 period is above average. Since 1985, 5-year values are mostly above average. The 1970 to 1974 period has the lowest 5-year value at 1.5 days, and the 1995 to 1999 and 2010 to 2014 periods have the highest at 10.0 and 10.7 days, respectively.
Contiguous US
Y-axis values range from 4 to 40 days. Annual values range from 7.0 to 36.6 days. Five-year values are below 16 days between 1900 and 1909, all near or above 16 days between 1910 and 1959, and all near or below 16 days since 1960 except for the 1980 to 1984, 2010 to 2014, and 2020 to 2024 periods, which are slightly above 16 days. The 1990 to 1994 period has the lowest 5-year value at 12.5 days, and the 1930 to 1934 and 1935 to 1939 periods have the highest at 27.1 and 24.9 days, respectively.
Panel B: Very Warm Nights
Maryland and the District of Columbia
Y-axis values range from 0 to 14 nights. Annual values range from 0.4 to 11.8 nights. Five-year values are all near or below the long-term average of 4.1 nights between 1950 and 1994 but are all near or above average since 1995. The 1960 to 1964 period has the lowest 5-year value at 1.0 nights, and the 2010 to 2014, 2015 to 2019, and 2020 to 2024 periods have the highest at 7.63, 7.59, and 8.0 nights, respectively.
Contiguous US
Y-axis values range from 0 to 12 nights. Annual values range from 1.0 to 10.0 nights. Five-year values are all near or below 4 nights between 1900 and 1994 except for the 1930 to 1934 and 1935 to 1939 periods. An upward trend is evident since the 1970 to 1974 period, which has the lowest 5-year value at 2.2 nights. Five-year values since 1995 are all near or above 4 nights. The 2010 to 2014 and 2020 to 2024 periods have the highest 5-year values at 6.6 and 7.0 nights, respectively.
Combination bar graph of the observed annual number of very hot days and very warm nights for the District of Columbia from 1950 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from 0 to 22 days and nights. A legend defines very hot days (red bars) as days with maximum temperature of 95 degrees Fahrenheit or higher and very warm nights (orange bars) as days with minimum temperature of 75 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. Five-year values for extremely hot days show variability and range from 3.4 days for the 1970 to 1974 period to 17.4 days for the 1995 to 1999 period. Five-year values for very warm nights also show variability and range from about 1.2 nights for the 1985 to 1989 period to 18.2 nights for the 2015 to 2019 period. Five-year values for very hot days show no clear trend across the entire period, while those for very warm nights show a general increase.
Paired graphs of the observed annual number of very cold nights for Maryland and the District of Columbia (top) from 1950 to 2024 and for the contiguous United States (bottom) from 1900 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Annual and 5-year values show variability in both graphs.
Maryland and the District of Columbia
Y-axis values range from 0 to 5 nights. Annual values range from 0 to 4.2 nights. Five-year values are below the long-term average of 1.0 nights for the 1950 to 1954 period, all above average between 1955 and 1989 except for the 1970 to 1974 period. All 5-year values since 1990 are below average. The 2020 to 2024 period has the lowest 5-year value at 0.2 nights, and the 1960 to 1964, 1975 to 1979, and 1980 to 1984 periods have the highest at 2.1, 2.05, and 1.99 nights, respectively.
Contiguous US
Y-axis values range from 0 to 24 nights. Annual values range from 3.9 to 20.0 nights. Five-year values are all near or above 10 nights between 1900 and 1989 but are all below 10 nights since 1990 except for the 2010 to 2010 to 2014 period. The 2020 to 2024 period has the lowest 5-year value at 7.6 nights, and the 1915 to 1919 and 1975 to 1979 periods have the highest at 15.1 and 15.6 nights, respectively.
Statewide total annual precipitation for Maryland has ranged from a low of 23.3 inches in 1930 to a high of 64.6 inches in 2018 (Figure 5). Annual precipitation has generally been near or above the long-term average since the 1970s. The annual number of 2-inch extreme precipitation events for Maryland and DC has generally been near or above average since the 2005–2009 period (Figure 6).
Graph of the observed total annual precipitation for Maryland from 1895 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from 20 to 70 inches. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 23.3 to 64.6 inches. Five-year values also show variability and are mostly near or below the long-term average of 42.8 inches between 1895 and 1969 but are mostly near or above average since 1970. The 1965 to 1969 period has the lowest 5-year value at 37.5 inches, and the 1975 to 1979 and 2015 to 2019 periods have the highest at 47.1 and 47.4 inches, respectively.
Paired graph of the observed annual number of 2-inch extreme precipitation events for Maryland and the District of Columbia (top) from 1950 to 2024 and for the contiguous United States (bottom) from 1900 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Annual and 5-year values show variability in both graphs.
Maryland and the District of Columbia
Y-axis values range from 0 to 6 events. Annual values range from 0.7 to 4.9 events. Five-year values are mostly below the long-term average of about 2.0 events between 1950 and 2004 but are all above average since 2005. The 1960 to 1964 period has the lowest 5-year value at 1.4 events, and the 2005 to 2009 period has the highest at 2.5 events.
Contiguous US
Y-axis values range from 1.0 to 3.0 events. Annual values range from 1.1 to 2.5 events. Five-year values are above 1.7 events between 1990 and 1909 but are mostly near or below 1.7 events between 1910 and 1989. An upward trend is evident since the early 1950s. All 5-year values since 1990 are above 1.7 events. The 1930 to 1934 period has the lowest 5-year value at 1.5 events, and the 2015 to 2020 period has the highest at 2.3 events.
Maryland and the District of Columbia are susceptible to several types of extreme weather, including tropical storms and hurricanes, severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, nor'easters, blizzards, ice storms, flooding, drought, and heat waves and cold waves. Multiple snowstorms impacted the Mid-Atlantic in February 2010, bringing heavy snowfall and shutting down the Federal Government for four and a half days. In 2011, Hurricane Irene caused considerable wind damage along the coast. In 2012, Superstorm Sandy (a post-tropical storm) caused damage from wind and a storm surge of 4 to 5 feet, which destroyed a large portion of Ocean City's fishing pier and caused widespread flooding in Crisfield and other low-lying areas of Maryland's Lower Eastern Shore. Sandy was one of the most extreme and destructive events to affect the northeastern United States and the fifth-costliest US disaster on record. In 2020, Tropical Storm Isaias produced damaging winds, extreme rainfall (including more than 9 inches in Leonardtown), and flooding in Maryland; it also spawned 10 tornadoes and resulted in one fatality. On September 1, 2021, the remnants of Hurricane Ida spawned two tornadoes (including an EF2) and dropped 3–8 inches of rain across Maryland, leading to widespread flooding and the drowning death of one person in Montgomery County. The number of landfalling Atlantic hurricanes is not expected to rise. However, rainfall rates from such storms, as well as the proportion of time they spend as major hurricanes, are projected to increase.
On June 29, 2012, a derecho (a widespread, long-lived straight-line windstorm associated with a series of severe thunderstorms) moved through the Ohio Valley and the Mid-Atlantic states. Maryland and the District of Columbia were two of the hardest-hit areas. One-third of Maryland residents and one-quarter of DC residents were left without power after the storm, with some outages lasting longer than a week. A windstorm on July 29, 2023, produced gusts as high as 84 mph in the District of Columbia, ripping the roofs off buildings, knocking out power, and felling thousands of trees—including dozens at the National Zoo, which was forced to close for two days.
Both mountainous terrain in the narrow, western portion of Maryland and dense urbanized areas are highly vulnerable to flash flooding. During August 12–13, 2014, torrential rainfall of up to 6 to 10 inches resulted in flooding along the coastal plain from Baltimore into New Jersey. An extreme precipitation event occurred on July 30, 2016, in Ellicott City, MD, with 6 inches of rain falling in several hours, causing two fatalities. Less than two years later, on May 27, 2018, another extreme precipitation event brought 6–12 inches of rain to the Ellicott City and Catonsville area, causing catastrophic damage and one fatality. Catonsville recorded 84.6 inches of precipitation that year, the state record.
Under the intermediate and higher emissions pathways, historically unprecedented warming is projected during this century (Figure 1). Even under the lower emissions pathway, most projections show annual average temperatures exceeding historical levels by the middle of the century. However, projections for all three pathways show a large range of potential temperature increases, and some projections for the lower pathway are comparable to recent observed values. In addition, the intensity of heat waves is projected to increase, with important implications for human health, while cold wave intensity is projected to decrease.
Under the intermediate emissions pathway, statistically significant increases in total annual precipitation are projected by midcentury across most of Maryland and the District of Columbia but are less certain elsewhere (Figure 7). Statistically significant increases are also projected for total winter precipitation across northern regions of Maryland. There is uncertainty in projections for spring, summer, and fall precipitation. An increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events is also projected, potentially increasing the risk of flooding and expanding flood hazard zones (areas inundated by a flood event), especially in urban areas. The 100-year storm event, as defined by historical data, is expected to occur every 20 to 50 years by the end of the century.
Map of the contiguous United States showing the projected changes in total annual precipitation by the middle of this century as described in the caption. A blowup map of the state of Maryland appears to the right of the contiguous US.
Legend values range from less than negative 10 to greater than positive 15 percent. Note: unless otherwise specified, projected values are not statistically significant.
Maryland
Most of Maryland and the District of Columbia are projected to see statistically significant increases in total annual precipitation of 5 to 10 percent.
Contiguous US
Projected increases in total annual precipitation are as follows: up to 5 percent for most of the Southeast, as well as the central Midwest, central Great Plains, central West, and Northwest; and 5 to 10 percent for all of the Northeast, as well as portions of the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, northern Midwest, northern Great Plains, and Pacific Northwest, with statistically significant increases in the 5 to 10 percent range for the Northeast, northeastern Midwest, and portions of the northern Great Plains and Pacific Northwest.
Projected decreases of up to 5 percent are expected across most of Texas, New Mexico, and Arizona, as well as southern California.
Droughts, a natural part of Maryland's climate, are projected to increase in intensity due to higher temperatures and the associated increase in evaporation rates and soil moisture loss.
With more than 3,000 miles of shoreline, Maryland is at considerable risk from sea level rise. On average, the state experienced about 8 inches of sea level rise between 1970 and 2020—compared to 6 inches for the contiguous US as a whole—and projections under the Intermediate sea level scenario show additional increases of about 11 inches by 2050 and 1.8 feet by 2070 (Figure 8). Across the five scenarios shown in Figure 8, the projected increases from 2020 to 2070 range from about 1 to 3.5 feet. For the Chesapeake Bay, sea level rise is compounded by substantial rates of land subsidence, or sinking. The largest impacts of sea level rise on the state include more frequent and severe coastal flood events, increased shore erosion, inundation of wetlands and low-lying lands, saltwater intrusion into surface and groundwater, and loss of agricultural lands.
Two time series of observed and projected relative sea level change for (a) the contiguous US and (b) Maryland from 1970 to 2070 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from negative 1 to positive 5 feet for both graphs. Legends in both graphs denote sources of historical data and scenarios for projections. Line colors for historical data are black for tide gauge data and orange for satellite data. Line and shading colors for projections based on five scenarios are as follows: light blue, Low; medium blue, Intermediate-Low; dark blue, Intermediate; yellow, Intermediate-High; and dark orange, High.
Panel A: Contiguous US
Tide gauge and satellite data generally show increases but with year-to-year variability. Projected data show increases under all scenarios. Tide gauge values range from a minimum of negative 0.3 feet in 1976 to a maximum of positive 0.4 feet in 2023. Satellite values range from a minimum of 0.0 feet in 1994 to a maximum of 0.4 feet in 2023. Projected sea level median values (lines) for the Low scenario range from 0.3 feet in 2020 to 1.1 feet in 2070, compared to 0.4 feet in 2020 to 3.1 feet in 2070 for the High scenario. Likely ranges (shading) become wider over the period shown. The range of likely values in 2070 for each of the five scenarios are as follows: Low scenario, from 0.9 to 1.4 feet; Intermediate-Low, 1.2 to 1.7 feet; Intermediate, 1.5 to 2.2 feet; Intermediate-High, 1.8 to 3.1 feet; and High, 2.4 to 3.8 feet.
Panel B: Maryland
All historical and future scenario lines show increases higher than those in the contiguous US graph. Tide gauge values range from a minimum of negative 0.5 feet in 1977 to a maximum of positive 0.8 feet in 2024. Satellite values range from a minimum of negative 0.1 feet in 1994 to a maximum of positive 0.4 feet in 2024. Projected sea level median values (lines) for the Low scenario range from 0.4 feet in 2020 to 1.5 feet in 2070, compared to 0.4 feet in 2020 to 3.4 feet in 2070 for the High scenario. Likely ranges (shading) become wider over the period shown. The range of likely values in 2070 for each of the five scenarios are as follows: Low scenario, from 1.2 to 1.9 feet; Intermediate-Low, 1.5 to 2.2 feet; Intermediate, 1.8 to 2.6 feet; Intermediate-High, 2.1 to 3.4 feet; and High, 2.6 to 4.1 feet.
Sea level rise has caused an increase in high-tide floods associated with nuisance-level impacts, which are occurring more frequently, even on sunny days. High-tide flooding occurs when one or more factors—sea level rise, winds, changes in ocean currents, full or new moons—push water levels above the normal high-tide mark. These events can damage infrastructure, cause road closures, and overwhelm storm drains. High-tide flooding has increased in all US coastal areas, with more rapid increases along the East and Gulf Coasts, and is likely to occur more frequently in Maryland as global and local sea levels continue to rise. The number of high-tide flood days has increased at Baltimore, with the greatest number occurring in both 2018 and 2023. Under both the Intermediate-Low and Intermediate scenarios, high-tide floods are projected to occur much more frequently in future years (Figure 9).
Graph of the observed and projected annual number of high-tide flood days at Baltimore, Maryland, from 1920 to 2100 (top), including a magnified view of the observed data for the period 1920 to 2024 (bottom), as described in the caption.
A legend shows annual observations (orange bars) and projected 19-year averages (two-colored bars) for the Intermediate-Low (medium blue) and Intermediate (dark blue) sea level scenarios.
Bottom
Y-axis labels for the magnified view range from 0 to 10 days. Following the first recorded event in 1923, high-tide flooding was sporadic until the mid-2010s, often with gaps of 1 to 4 years between events and annual values mostly below 4 days. Starting in 2017, high-tide flood days occurred every year, with a record high of 12 days in both 2018 and 2023.
Top
Y-axis labels range from 0 to 350 days, with a horizontal dashed gray line indicating 365 days. Baltimore is projected to experience 85 to 105 high-tide flood days per year by 2050 under the Intermediate-Low and Intermediate scenarios, respectively, and 325 to 360 days by 2100.
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