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NOAA National Centers
for Environmental Information

State Climate Summaries 2022

MAINE

Key Messages   Narrative   Downloads  

Old Port, Portland, Maine
Photo by romanboed
License: CC BY

Key Message 1

Temperatures in Maine have risen almost 3.5°F since the beginning of the 20th century. Winter temperatures have been increasing about twice as fast as summer temperatures. Under a higher emissions pathway, historically unprecedented warming is projected during this century.

Key Message 2

Precipitation since 2005 has averaged 6.6 inches more than during 1895–2004. The number of extreme precipitation events has been near to well above average since 2005 and is projected to increase during this century.

Key Message 3

Global sea level is projected to rise, with a likely range of 1–4 feet by 2100. Sea level at Portland has risen by about 7.4 inches since 1912 and is projected to rise another 1–4 feet by 2100.

Cape Neddick ('Nubble') Light, Maine
Photo by Raging Wire
License: CC BY-NC-ND

MAINE

Maine is located on the eastern margin of the North American continent. Its northerly latitude and geographic location expose the state to both the moderating and moistening influence of the Atlantic Ocean and the effects of hot and cold air masses from the interior of the continent. Maine is also located within the primary storm track of the mid-latitudes. Maine’s climate is characterized by cold, snowy winters and mild summers. Winter average temperatures range from 25°F in the far south to less than 15°F in the northern and interior portions of the state. Summer average temperatures range from near 60°F in the far north to near 70°F in the south. Maine is approximately 90% forested and has more than 3,500 miles of coastline, making forestry, fishery, hunting and fishing, tourism, and ecosystem services all sensitive to a changing climate.

   

Figure 1

Observed and Projected Temperature Change
Time series of observed and projected temperature change (in degrees Fahrenheit) for Maine from 1900 to 2100 as described in the caption. Y-axis values range from minus 4.3 to positive 17.8 degrees. Observed annual temperature change from 1900 to 2020 shows variability and ranges from minus 3.3 to positive 4.9 degrees. By the end of the century, projected increases in temperature range from 2.8 to 10.3 degrees under the lower emissions pathway and from 8.5 to 16.8 degrees under the higher pathway.
Figure 1: Observed and projected changes (compared to the 1901–1960 average) in near-surface air temperature for Maine. Observed data are for 1900–2020. Projected changes for 2006–2100 are from global climate models for two possible futures: one in which greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase (higher emissions) and another in which greenhouse gas emissions increase at a slower rate (lower emissions). Temperatures in Maine (orange line) have risen almost 3.5ºF since the beginning of the 20th century. Shading indicates the range of annual temperatures from the set of models. Observed temperatures are generally within the envelope of model simulations of the historical period (gray shading). Historically unprecedented warming is projected during this century. Less warming is expected under a lower emissions future (the coldest end-of-year projections being about 2ºF warmer than the historical average; green shading) and more warming under a higher emissions future (the hottest end-of-century projections being about 12ºF warmer than the hottest year in the historical record; red shading). Sources: CISESS and NOAA NCEI.

Temperatures in Maine have risen almost 3.5°F since the beginning of the 20th century (Figure 1). Since the mid-1990s, the amount of winter warming (Figure 2a) has been approximately twice that of summer warming (Figure 2b), with persistently above average temperatures occurring since the 1990s. Winter warming is reflected in the number of very cold nights, which has been below average since the late 1990s (Figure 3). However, the number of hot days has not increased (Figure 2c). Winter warming has resulted in earlier lake ice-out dates. On Damariscotta Lake, the average ice-out date during the mid-20th century was mid- to late April; it is now early April. The growing season has also lengthened.

Figure 2

   

a)

Observed Winter Temperature
Graph of the observed winter average temperature for Maine from 1895–96 to 2019–20 as described in the caption. Y-axis values range from 5 to 25 degrees Fahrenheit. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from about 8 to 24 degrees. Multiyear values, which also show variability, are mostly near or below the long-term average of 16.1 degrees between 1895 and 1994. One notable exception is the 1950 to 1954 period, which is well above average. Since 1995, all of the multiyear values are above or well above average. The 1905 to 1909 period has the lowest multiyear value and the 2010 to 2014 period the highest.
   

b)

Observed Summer Temperature
Graph of the observed summer average temperature for Maine from 1895 to 2020 as described in the caption. Y-axis values range from 58 to 66 degrees Fahrenheit. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from about 58 to 66 degrees. Multiyear values, which also show variability, are mostly near or below the long-term average of 62.9 degrees between 1895 and 1989. One exception is the 1935 to 1939 period, which is well above average. Since 1990, all of the multiyear are above or well above average. The 1900 to 1904 period has the lowest multiyear value and the 2010 to 2014 period the highest.
   

c)

Observed Number of Hot Days
Graph of the observed annual number of hot days for Maine from 1900 to 2020 as described in the caption. Y-axis values range from 0 to 25 days. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0 to 21 days. Multiyear values also show variability and are mostly near or below the long-term average of 5.3 days across the entire period. Exceptions include the periods between 1935 and 1949, which are well above average. The 1965 to 1969 and 2005 to 2009 periods have the lowest multiyear value and the 1940 to 1944 period the highest.
   

d)

Observed Annual Precipitation
Graph of the observed total annual precipitation for Maine from 1895 to 2020 as described in the caption. Y-axis values are labeled from 30 to 60 inches. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from about 30 to 62 inches. Multiyear values. which also show variability, are mostly below the long-term average of 42.7 inches between 1900 and 1969. One notable exception is the 1950 to 1954 period, which is well above average. By contrast, most of the multiyear values since 1970 are above or well above average. The 1910 to 1914 period has the lowest multiyear value and the 2005 to 2009 period the highest.
Figure 2: Observed (a) winter (December–February) average temperature, (b) summer (June–August) average temperature, (c) annual number of hot days (maximum temperature of 90°F or higher), and (d) total annual precipitation for Maine from (a, b, d) 1895 to 2020 and (c) 1900 to 2020. Dots show annual values. Bars show averages over 5-year periods (last bar is a 6-year average). The horizontal black lines show the long-term (entire period) averages for Maine: (a) 16.1°F (b) 62.9°F, (c) 5.3 days, (d) 42.7 inches. Summer and winter temperatures have been above average since the mid-1990s, with the highest multiyear averages for both occurring during the 2010–2014 period. Annual precipitation has been above average for the past 16 years (2005–2020). Sources: (a–d) CISESS and NOAA NCEI. Data: (a, b, d) nClimDiv, (c) GHCN-Daily from 3 long-term stations.
   
Observed Number of Very Cold Nights
Graph of the observed annual number of very cold nights for Maine from 1900 to 2020 as described in the caption. Y-axis values range from 0 to 60 nights. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from about 4 to 58 nights. Multiyear values, which also show variability, are all above the long-term average of 29.6 nights between 1900 and 1924, all below average between 1925 and 1959, and all above average between 1960 and 1994. Since 1995, all of the multiyear values are below or well below average. The 1950 to 1954 period has the lowest multiyear value and the 1975 to 1979 period the highest.
Figure 3: Observed annual number of very cold nights (minimum temperature of 0°F or lower) for Maine from 1900 to 2020. Dots show annual values. Bars show averages over 5-year periods (last bar is a 6-year average). The horizontal black line shows the long-term (entire period) average of 29.6 nights. Periods of very cold nighttime temperatures have occurred episodically throughout the period of record, notably in the 1970s and 1980s. Since the mid-1990s, the number of very cold nights has been below average, reflecting winter warming. Sources: CISESS and NOAA NCEI. Data: GHCN-Daily from 3 long-term stations.

Total annual precipitation in Maine reached a historically high multiyear average during the 2005–2009 period (Figure 2d). In the harsh winter months, average accumulated snowfall ranges from 40 to 80 inches across the Southern Interior and Northern Interior climate divisions, with the northern tip of the state receiving up to 100 inches. The annual number of 2-inch extreme precipitation events has varied over the period of record, but the 10-year interval from 2005 to 2014 had a record number (nearly double the long-term average; Figure 4), similar to the rest of the northeastern United States. Maine has also been experiencing more short-term dry periods, with extreme drought occurring in 2002, 2016, and 2020. Drought conditions in 2020 contributed to more than 900 wildfires, the most Maine has seen in a decade.

   
Observed Number of 2-Inch Extreme Precipitation Events
Graph of the observed annual number of 2-inch extreme precipitation events for Maine from 1900 to 2020 as described in the caption. Y-axis values range from 0 to 5 days. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0 to 4.9 days. Multiyear values, which also show variability, are mostly near or below the long-term average of 1.6 days across the entire period. Notable exceptions are the 1945 to 1949 and 1955 to 1959 periods, which are well below average, and the 2005 to 2009 and 2010 to 2014 periods, which are well above average. The 1955 to 1959 period has the lowest multiyear value and the 2005 to 2009 period the highest.
Figure 4: Observed annual number of 2-inch extreme precipitation events (days with precipitation of 2 inches or more) for Maine from 1900 to 2020. Dots show annual values. Bars show averages over 5-year periods (last bar is a 6-year average). The horizontal black line shows the long-term (entire period) average of 1.6 days. A typical reporting station experiences 1 to 2 events per year. Maine experienced a record number of 2-inch extreme precipitation events during the 2005–2009 and 2010–2014 periods. Sources: CISESS and NOAA NCEI. Data: GHCN-Daily from 3 long-term stations.

Heat and cold waves, droughts, severe rainstorms, nor’easters, ice storms, and tornadoes are all part of Maine’s normal climate. In general, nor’easters cause more disruption than any other type of extreme weather. Nor’easters are cold-season coastal storms that can generate a tremendous amount of precipitation (in the form of snow, sleet, or freezing rain), strong winds, coastal flooding, and damage to infrastructure. Observed wind speeds from nor’easters are commonly equal to or greater than those from hurricanes that have reached Maine. Nor’easters are prevalent in most years in winter, spring, and fall, while landfalling hurricanes are very rare. Since 1861, only 3 hurricanes have reached Maine with hurricane-force winds, the last being Gloria in 1985. Since 2007, weather-related disasters have been declared in every county in Maine.

Under a higher emissions pathway, historically unprecedented warming is projected during this century (Figure 1). Even under a lower emissions pathway, temperatures are generally projected to exceed historical record levels by the middle of this century. However, a large range of temperature increases is projected under both pathways, and under the lower pathway, a few projections are only slightly warmer than historical records. The intensity of cold waves is projected to decrease, while heat waves are projected to increase in intensity, potentially raising the importance of such events in this normally moderate summer climate.

Precipitation is projected to increase. Maine is part of a large area in the higher mid-latitudes that is projected to see increases in winter (Figure 5) and spring precipitation. The frequency of extreme precipitation events is also projected to increase, potentially resulting in increased flooding risks and the degradation of surface water quality as greater runoff from more intense storms carries pollutants into freshwater resources.

   
Projected Change in Winter Precipitation
Map of the contiguous United States showing the projected changes in total winter precipitation by the middle of this century as described in the caption. Values range from less than minus 20 to greater than positive 15 percent. Winter precipitation is projected to increase across most of the country, with the exception of the far southern portions of the southwestern and Gulf states. The greatest, statistically significant increases are projected for the Northern Great Plains, the Midwest, and the Northeast. The majority of Maine is projected to see a statistically significant increase of greater than 15 percent, with the exception of a narrow band along the coastline with a projected statistically significant increase of 10 to 15 percent.
Figure 5: Projected changes in total winter (December–February) precipitation (%) for the middle of the 21st century compared to the late 20th century under a higher emissions pathway. Hatching represents areas where the majority of climate models indicate a statistically significant change. Maine is part of a large area in the northeastern and central United States with projected increases in winter precipitation. Sources: CISESS and NEMAC. Data: CMIP5.

Since 1900, global average sea level has risen by about 7–8 inches. It is projected to rise another 1–8 feet, with a likely range of 1–4 feet, by 2100 as a result of both past and future emissions from human activities (Figure 6). Greater rises along the Maine coast are possible. Sea surface temperatures in the coastal waters of Maine have increased by almost 2°F since 1970. The Gulf of Maine has warmed faster than 99% of the global ocean. Tide-gauge records in Portland show a sea level rise of approximately 7.4 inches since 1912. Changes in ocean and atmospheric circulation have caused temporary, destructive increases in sea level, such as the 5-inch rise along the Maine coast in 2010. Future projections of sea level rise show that some coastal cities and towns could lose up to 30% of their land area.

Sea level rise has caused an increase in tidal floods associated with nuisance-level impacts. Nuisance floods are events in which water levels exceed the local threshold (set by NOAA’s National Weather Service) for minor impacts. These events can damage infrastructure, cause road closures, and overwhelm storm drains. Nuisance flooding has increased in all U.S. coastal areas, with more rapid increases along the East and Gulf Coasts. Nuisance flooding events in Maine are likely to occur more frequently as global and local sea levels continue to rise.

   
Observed and Projected Changes in Global Sea Level
Line graph of observed and projected change in global mean sea level from 1800 to 2100 as described in the caption. Y-axis values are labeled from 0 to 8 feet. The historical line shows that observed sea level from 1800 to 1900 was relatively constant but increased by 7 to 8 inches by 2015. Six lines of increasing steepness extend from the historical line, representing the six projected sea level rise scenarios from Low (a half foot) to Extreme (8 feet). Two box and whisker plots to the right of the x-axis show the likely and possible ranges of sea level rise under lower (left) and higher (right) emissions scenarios.
Figure 6: Global mean sea level (GMSL) change from 1800 to 2100. Projections include the six U.S. Interagency Sea Level Rise Task Force GMSL scenarios (Low, navy blue; Intermediate-Low, royal blue; Intermediate, cyan; Intermediate-High, green; High, orange; and Extreme, red curves) relative to historical geological, tide gauge, and satellite altimeter GMSL reconstructions from 1800–2015 (black and magenta lines) and the very likely ranges in 2100 under both lower and higher emissions futures (teal and dark red boxes). Global sea level rise projections range from 1 to 8 feet by 2100, with a likely range of 1 to 4 feet. Source: adapted from Sweet et al. 2017.

Details on observations and projections are available on the Technical Details and Additional Information page.

Lead Authors
Jennifer Runkle, Cooperative Institute for Satellite Earth System Studies (CISESS)
Kenneth E. Kunkel, Cooperative Institute for Satellite Earth System Studies (CISESS)
Contributing Authors
Sarah M. Champion, Cooperative Institute for Satellite Earth System Studies (CISESS)
Rebekah Frankson, Cooperative Institute for Satellite Earth System Studies (CISESS)
Brooke C. Stewart, Cooperative Institute for Satellite Earth System Studies (CISESS)
Arthur T. DeGaetano, Cornell University
Jessica Spaccio, NOAA Northeast Regional Climate Center, Cornell University
Recommended Citation
Runkle, J., K.E. Kunkel, S.M. Champion, R. Frankson, B.C. Stewart, A.T DeGaetano, and J. Spaccio, 2022: Maine State Climate Summary 2022. NOAA Technical Report NESDIS 150-ME. NOAA/NESDIS, Silver Spring, MD, 4 pp.

RESOURCES

  • Dhakal, N., S. Jain, A. Gray, M. Dandy, and E. Stancioff, 2015: Nonstationarity in seasonality of extreme precipitation: A nonparametric circular statistical approach and its application. Water Resources Research, 51 (6), 4499–4515. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2014WR016399
  • GMRI, 2019: Marine heatwave. Tidings, August 22, 2019. Gulf of Maine Research Institute, Portland, ME. https://gmri.org/stories/marine-heatwave/
  • Goddard, P.B., J. Yin, S.M. Griffies, and S. Zhang, 2015: An extreme event of sea-level rise along the Northeast coast of North America in 2009–2010. Nature Communications, 6 (1), 6346. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ncomms7346
  • Gray, A.G. 2012: Climate-Related Adaptation in Coastal Maine: A Study of Governance and Decision Process. Master of Science (MS), Ecology and Environmental Sciences, University of Maine. (1811). https://digitalcommons.library.umaine.edu/etd/1811/
  • Gray, A.G., J. Shaleen, E. Stanicoff, and N. Dhakal, 2014: Climate Highlights: Extreme Precipitation and Population: Maine in the Context of the Northeast. Maine Climate News, Fall 2014. University of Maine Cooperative Extension, Orono, ME. https://extension.umaine.edu/maineclimatenews/archives/fall-2014/climate-highlights/
  • Hayhoe, K., D.J. Wuebbles, D.R. Easterling, D.W. Fahey, S. Doherty, J. Kossin, W. Sweet, R. Vose, and M. Wehner, 2018: Our changing climate. In: Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II. Reidmiller, D.R., C.W. Avery, D.R. Easterling, K.E. Kunkel, K.L.M. Lewis, T.K. Maycock, and B.C. Stewart, Eds. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, 72–144. https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/chapter/2/
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  • The Maine Monitor, 2020: Drought conditions in Maine have led to over 900 wildfires this summer. Bangor Daily News, September 13, 2020. https://bangordailynews.com/2020/09/13/news/drought-conditions-in-maine-have-led-to-over-900-wildfires-this-summer/
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  • Parris, A., P. Bromirski, V. Burkett, D. Cayan, M. Culver, J. Hall, R. Horton, K. Knuuti, R. Moss, J. Obeysekera, A. Sallenger, and J. Weiss, 2012: Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States National Climate Assessment. NOAA Technical Report OAR CPO-1. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, Climate Program Office, Silver Spring, MD, 33 pp. https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/11124
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