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2025 State Climate Summaries

MICHIGAN

trees2 by Barbara Eckstein
License: CC BY-NC-ND 2.0

KEY MESSAGES

Key Message1

Annual average temperatures in Michigan have increased more than 3°F since the beginning of the 20th century. Under the intermediate and higher emissions pathways, historically unprecedented warming is projected during this century. Extreme heat is a particular concern for densely populated urban areas such as Detroit, where high temperatures and high humidity can pose serious health risks.

Key Message2

Under the intermediate emissions pathway, statistically significant increases are projected by midcentury in total annual, spring, and winter precipitation across portions of the state. Heavier spring precipitation increases the risk of springtime flooding, which can delay planting and reduce crop yields.

Key Message3

Changes in seasonal and multiyear precipitation and increased evaporation rates due to rising temperatures can affect water levels in the Great Lakes, causing serious environmental and socioeconomic impacts.

Michigan experiences large seasonal changes in temperature, with warm, humid summers and cold winters. Annual average temperature varies widely across the state, with a range of about 10°F from the Upper Peninsula to southern portions of the Lower Peninsula. Typical summer maximum temperatures range from the low 70s (°F) in northernmost parts of the state to mid-80s in parts of the Lower Peninsula (1991–2020 averages). Average winter minimum temperatures range from less than 5°F in parts of the Upper Peninsula to more than 20°F in southernmost portions of the state. The Great Lakes play an important role in moderating the state’s climate, causing it to be more temperate and humid than other north-central states. The Lower Peninsula is bordered by Lake Michigan to the west and by Lakes Huron and Erie to the east, while the Upper Peninsula is bounded by Lake Superior to the north and Lakes Huron and Michigan to the east and south, respectively. The moderating effect of the lakes is most evident along the shores, which are considerably warmer during the winter and cooler in the summer than more inland locations. The moderating effects in summer are even greater along the shores of the colder waters of Lake Superior in the Upper Peninsula. Annual precipitation generally ranges from about 30 to 42 inches across the state, with the largest totals observed in southwest portions of the Lower Peninsula.

Figure 1 Observed and Projected Temperature Change
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Figure 1. Observed and Projected Temperature Change. For more details, consult the image description section following the caption.
Figure 1: Observed and projected changes (compared to the 1901–1960 average) in near-surface annual average air temperature for Michigan. Observed data are for 1900–2024. Projected changes for 2015–2100 were generated using global climate models to explore three possible futures, associated with lower, intermediate, and higher greenhouse gas emissions pathways (the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively). Temperatures in Michigan (black line) have increased more than 3°F since the beginning of the 20th century (based on a linear trend). Shading indicates the range of annual temperatures from the set of models. Observed temperatures are generally within the envelope of model simulations of the historical period (light gray shading). Less warming is expected under a lower emissions future (the coldest end-of-century projections being about 2.7°F warmer than the 1901–1960 average; blue shading) and more warming under a higher emissions future (the hottest end-of-century projections being about 13.6°F warmer than the hottest year in the observed record; red shading), while the intermediate emissions future leads to moderate warming (with end-of-century projections ranging from about 4.9°F to 11.8°F above the 1901–1960 average; dark gray shading). Adapted from Frankson et al. 2022. Data: NClimDiv and CMIP6.
Description

Time series of observed and projected temperature change (in degrees Fahrenheit) for Michigan from 1900 to 2100 as described in the caption.

Y-axis values range from negative 8 to positive 24 degrees. Observed annual temperatures from 1900 to 2024 show variability and range from negative 4.3 to positive 5.5 degrees. By the end of the century, projected increases in temperature range from 2.8 to 9.9 degrees under the lower emissions pathway, from 5.0 to 12.0 degrees under the intermediate pathway, and from 9.8 to 19.7 degrees under the higher pathway

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Annual average temperatures in Michigan have increased more than 3°F since the beginning of the 20th century (Figure 1). Temperatures in the 2000s have generally been higher than in any other historical period, with each successive 5-year average being warmer than the previous one. The year 2024 was the hottest on record, with a statewide annual average temperature of 48.8°F, which is 4.9°F above the long-term (1895–2024) average. Warming has been most notable in winter and spring, with summer temperatures also being above average in recent decades (Figures 2a and 2b). Despite this summer warming, extreme heat events have not increased, which is reflected in a generally below-average number of hot days since the 1960s (Figure 3a) and no overall trend in warm nights (Figure 3b). The winter warming trend is reflected in a generally below-average number of very cold nights since the 1990s (Figure 4) and reduced ice cover in the Great Lakes. Annual maximum ice cover across the Great Lakes as a whole fluctuates from year to year but has shown a decreasing trend since records began in 1973. The 2024 annual maximum ice cover for the Great Lakes combined was the fourth lowest on record at 16%, compared to the 1973–2025 average of 52%. The 2025 maximum ice cover, however, was equal to the long-term average at 52%.

Figure 2 Observed Winter Average and Summer Average Temperatures
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Figure 2. Observed Winter Average and Summer Average Temperatures. For more details, consult the image description section following the caption.
Figure 2: Observed (a) winter (December–February) and (b) summer (June–August) average temperatures for Michigan from (a) 1895–96 to 2023–24 and (b) 1895 to 2024. Dots show annual values. Bars show averages over 5-year periods (first bar in Figure 2a is a 4-winter average). The horizontal black lines show the long-term (entire period) averages of (a) 20.7°F and (b) 66.0°F. Since the 1980s, 5-year averages for winter temperature have generally been above average. Summer temperatures have mostly been near or above average since the late 1990s, with values generally approaching or exceeding the consistently high temperatures of the 1930s Dust Bowl era. Adapted from Frankson et al. 2022. Data: NClimDiv.
Description

Two graphs of the observed (a) winter and (b) summer average temperatures for Michigan from 1895–96 to 2023–24 and 1895 to 2024, respectively, as described in the caption.

Panel A: Winter Average Temperature
Y-axis values range from 8 to 32 degrees Fahrenheit. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 10.9 to 30.5 degrees. Five-year values also show variability and are mostly below the long-term average of 20.7 degrees between 1895 and 1979. Exceptions include the 1930 to 1934 and 1950 to 1954 periods. Since 1980, 5-year values are all above average. The 1900 to 1904 period has the lowest 5-year value at 17.2 degrees, and the 2020 to 2024 period has the highest at 25.9 degrees.

Panel B: Summer Average Temperature
Y-axis value range from 60 to 72 degrees Fahrenheit. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 61.2 to 69.6 degrees. Five-year values also show variability, and are all below the long-term average of 66.0 degrees between 1895 and 1929, all near or above average between 1930 and 1959 except for the 1950 to 1954 period, and all below average between 1960 and 1979. Since 1980, 5-year values are all near or above average except for the 1990 to 1994 period. The 1925 to 1929 period has the lowest 5-year value at 63.9 degrees, and the 2020 to 2024 period has the highest at 67.9 degrees.

Figure 3 Observed Number of Hot Days and Warm Nights
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Figure 3. Observed Number of Hot Days and Warm Nights. For more details, consult the image description section following the caption.
Figure 3: Observed annual number of (a) hot days (maximum temperature of 90°F or higher) and (b) warm nights (minimum temperature of 70°F or higher) for Michigan from 1900 to 2024. Dots show annual values. Bars show averages over five-year periods. The horizontal black lines show the long-term (entire period) averages of (a) 6.8 days and (b) 2.3 nights. The number of hot days has mostly been below average since the 1960s, while the number of warm nights shows no clear trend. With high temperatures exacerbated by extreme drought and poor land management practices, the 5-year period of the early 1930s remains the warmest on record for both hot days and warm nights. Adapted from Frankson et al. 2022. Data: GHCN-Daily.
Description

Two graphs of the observed annual number of (a) hot days and (b) warm nights for Michigan from 1900 to 2024 as described in the caption.

Panel A: Hot Days
Y-axis values range from 0 to 28 days. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0.1 to 26.5 days. Five-year values also show variability and mostly above the long-term average of 6.8 days between 1900 and 1959 but are all below average since 1960 except for the 1985 to 1989 period. The 1980 to 1984 period has the lowest 5-year value at 3.4 days, and the 1930 to 1934 period has the highest at 16.1 days.

Panel B: Warm Nights
Y-axis values range from 0 to 10 nights. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0 to 8.1 nights. Five-year values also show variability and are all below the long-term average of 2.3 nights between 1900 and 1929 except for the 1915 to 1919 period, all above average between 1930 and 1949, and mostly below average since 1950. The 1905 to 1909 period has the lowest 5-year value at 0.9 nights, and the 1930 to 1934 period has the highest at 4.2 nights.

Figure 4 Observed Number of Very Cold Nights
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Figure 4. Observed Number of Very Cold Nights. For more details, consult the image description section following the caption.
Figure 4: Observed annual number of very cold nights (minimum temperature of 0°F or lower) for Michigan from 1900 to 2024. Dots show annual values. Bars show averages over 5-year periods. The horizontal black line shows the long-term (entire period) average of 11.5 nights. The number of very cold nights has mostly been below average since the 1990s, with the 2020–2024 average being the lowest on record. Adapted from Frankson et al. 2022. Data: GHCN-Daily.
Description

Graph of the observed annual number of very cold nights for Michigan from 1900 to 2024 as described in the caption.

Y-axis values range from 0 to 36 nights. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 1.4 to 32.1 nights. Five-year values also show variability and are all near or above the long-term average of 11.5 nights between 1900 and 1924, all below average between 1925 and 1959, and all near or above average between 1960 and 1994. Since 1995, all 5-year values are below average. The 2020 to 2024 period has the lowest 5-year value at 4.6 nights, and the 1975 to 1979 period has the highest at 17.0 nights.

Statewide annual precipitation has ranged from a low of 22.7 inches in 1930 to a high of 41.8 inches in 2019 and shows an upward trend (Figure 5). The frequency of extreme precipitation events has risen steadily since the early 2000s; 5-year averages for 2-inch extreme precipitation events between 2010 and 2024 are the highest on record (Figure 6).

Figure 5 Observed Total Annual Precipitation
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Figure 5. Observed Total Annual Precipitation. For more details, consult the image description section following the caption.
Figure 5: Observed total annual precipitation for Michigan from 1895 to 2024. Dots show annual values. Bars show averages over 5-year periods. The horizontal black line shows the long-term (entire period) average of 31.7 inches. Annual precipitation shows an overall upward trend, and 5-year values since the late 1960s have all been near or above the long-term average. Adapted from Frankson et al. 2022. Data: NClimDiv.
Description

Graph of the observed total annual precipitation for Michigan from 1895 to 2024 as described in the caption.

Y-axis values range from 20 to 44 inches. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 22.7 to 41.8 inches. Five-year values also show variability and are all near or below the long-term average of 31.7 inches between 1895 and 1964 except for the 1950 to 1954 period. Since 1965, 5-year values are all near or above average except for the 1995 to 1999 period. The 1930 to 1934 period has the lowest 5-year value at 28.1 inches, and the 2015 to 2019 period has the highest at 37.0 inches.

Figure 6 Observed Number of 2-Inch Extreme Precipitation Events
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Figure 6. Observed Number of 2-Inch Extreme Precipitation Events. For more details, consult the image description section following the caption.
Figure 6: Observed annual number of 2-inch extreme precipitation events (days with precipitation of 2 inches or more) for Michigan from 1900 to 2024. Dots show annual values. Bars show averages over 5-year periods. The horizontal black line shows the long-term (entire period) average of 0.6 events, indicating that a typical reporting station experiences about one event every two years. The number of 2-inch extreme precipitation events has been increasing since the early 2000s—almost every year since then was near or above the long-term average, and the last three 5-year periods were the highest on record. Adapted from Frankson et al. 2022. Data: GHCN-Daily.
Description

Graph of the observed annual number of 2-inch extreme precipitation events for Michigan from 1900 to 2024 as described in the caption.

Y-axis values range from 0.0 to 2.0 events. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0.1 to 1.6 events. Five-year values also show variability and are mostly near or below the long-term average of 0.6 events between 1900 and 1984 but are all above average since 1985 except for the 1995 to 1999 and 2000 to 2004 periods. The 1960 to 1964 period has the lowest 5-year value at 0.3 events, and the 2020 to 2024 period has the highest at 1.0 events.

Michigan experiences severe thunderstorms, some of which produce tornadoes—which are not as common in the state as elsewhere in the Midwest—and flooding. The deadliest tornado in the state’s history—and the 10th deadliest in US history—was an EF5 that struck Flint on June 8, 1953, killing 116 people. On May 31, 1998, a powerful derecho (a widespread, long-lived straight-line windstorm associated with a series of severe thunderstorms) with wind gusts over 100 mph struck lower Michigan, causing 4 deaths and destroying 250 homes and 34 businesses. Heavy rainfall events have led to several impactful flooding episodes in recent years. In April 2013, significant flooding occurred in the Grand Rapids area when heavy rain fell on saturated ground and caused the Grand River to rise to record levels. More than 1,200 homes were damaged, and losses exceeded $43 million. Historic flooding also occurred during May 17–20, 2020, in central Michigan due to persistent rainfall over several days. This caused catastrophic failures of multiple dams, resulting in record-breaking flooding along the Tittabawassee River.

Snowfall is common in the state but varies regionally. Due to their proximity to the Great Lakes, the south shore of Lake Superior in the Upper Peninsula and the eastern shore of Lake Michigan in the Lower Peninsula receive much more snowfall than the rest of the state. Parts of the Upper Peninsula receive more than 200 inches annually (1991–2020 average). Notable snowstorms include the Blizzard of 1967, which paralyzed southern portions of the state with 20–30 inches of snow, and the New Year’s storm of January 1999, which brought 18–24 inches to the same region.

Changes in seasonal and multiyear precipitation, evaporation, and temperature can affect water levels in the Great Lakes, causing serious environmental and socioeconomic impacts. Extreme high lake levels can damage beaches, erode shorelines, and flood and damage nearshore structures. Low lake levels can affect the supply and quality of water, restrict shipping, and result in the loss of wetlands. Reduced winter ice cover from rising temperatures also leaves shores vulnerable to erosion and flooding. Water levels in the Great Lakes have fluctuated widely since the early 20th century. For Lake Michigan–Huron (Figure 7), levels were generally high in the early 20th century, early 1950s, early 1970s, mid-1980s, and late 2010s. Levels were lowest in the mid-1920s, mid-1930s, mid-1960s, and, for an extended period, in the early 2000s to mid-2010s—averaging 577.5 feet over 2000–2013. Lake levels rose rapidly after that, reaching a record high of 581.7 feet in 2020 before dropping off to early-1990s levels by 2023.

Figure 7 Lake-Wide Water Levels for Lake Michigan-Huron
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Figure 7. Lake-Wide Water Levels for Lake Michigan-Huron. For more details, consult the image description section following the caption.
Figure 7: Annual time series of the average water levels for Lake Michigan–Huron from 1918 to 2023. Lake Michigan–Huron levels reached record lows in the mid-1930s and mid-1960s and record highs in the mid-1980s and early 2020s. Adapted from Frankson et al. 2022. Data: USACE Great Lakes and Ohio River Division.
Description

Time series of annual average water levels for Lake Michigan–Huron from 1918 to 2023 as described in the caption.

Y-axis values range from 576 to 583 feet. Annual values show wide variability and range from a high of nearly 582 feet in 1986 and 2020 to a low of about 576 feet in 1964. Annual values are mostly between 577 and 579 feet from the beginning of the period to the late 1960s but are mostly between 579 and 581 feet from the early 1970s to late 1990s. The 2000s through the early 2010s show consistently low water levels between 577 and 578 feet. Levels rose sharply early 2010s show consistently low water levels between 577 and 578 feet. Levels rose sharply in the late 2010s to nearly 582 feet in 2020 but then dropped to nearly 579 feet by 2023.

Under the intermediate and higher emissions pathways, historically unprecedented warming is projected during this century (Figure 1). Even under the lower emissions pathway, most projections show annual average temperatures exceeding historical levels by the middle of the century. However, projections for all three pathways show a large range of potential temperature increases, and some projections for the lower pathway are comparable to recent observed values. Extreme heat is a particular concern for Detroit and other urban areas. Heat absorbed and emitted by buildings and pavement, as well as other aspects of urban environments, makes cities even warmer than the surrounding countryside, a phenomenon known as the urban heat island effect. Detroit recorded its highest annual average temperature at 54.1°F in 2024. Higher spring temperatures are expected to lengthen the growing season but also potentially increase the risk of spring freeze damage. In 2012, record-high March temperatures caused Michigan’s fruit trees to bloom early. When temperatures dropped back down to below freezing in April, the budding fruit crop was destroyed, causing exceptionally large losses in the hundreds of millions of dollars.

Under the intermediate emissions pathway, statistically significant increases in total winter precipitation are projected across most of Michigan by midcentury (Figure 8). Statistically significant increases are also projected for annual precipitation (across the eastern edge of the Upper Peninsula and central and eastern portions of the Lower Peninsula) and spring precipitation (across most of the Upper peninsula and northern and eastern portions of the Lower Peninsula). There is uncertainty in projections for summer and fall precipitation. The frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events are projected to increase, potentially increasing the frequency and intensity of floods. Springtime flooding, in particular, could threaten Michigan’s agricultural industry by delaying planting and reducing crop yields.

Figure 8 Projected Change in Winter Precipitation
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Figure 8. Projected Change in Winter Precipitation. For more details, consult the image description section following the caption.
Figure 8: Projected changes in total winter (December–February) precipitation (%) for the middle of the 21st century (2041–2070) compared to the 1991–2020 average under the intermediate emissions pathway (SSP2-4.5 scenario). For areas with hatching, a majority of models project statistically significant changes and agree on the direction of change. For areas without hatching, less than half of models project statistically significant changes. Statistically significant increases of 10–15% in total winter precipitation are projected across most of Michigan by midcentury. Winter precipitation is also projected to increase throughout the rest of the state; however, these changes are not statistically significant. Adapted from Frankson et al. 2022. Data: CMIP6.
Description

Map of the contiguous United States showing the projected changes in total winter precipitation by the middle of this century as described in the caption. The state of Michigan is outlined in black.

Legend values range from less than negative 10 to greater than positive 15 percent. Note: unless otherwise specified, projected values are not statistically significant.

Michigan
Nearly all of Michigan is projected to see statistically significant increases in total winter precipitation of 10 to 15 percent.

Contiguous US
Projected increases in total winter precipitation are as follows: up to 5 percent across a narrow swath running westward from western Georgia to southern California; 5 to 10 percent in the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, southern Midwest, portions of the Great Plains and most of the West; and 10 to 15 percent in the majority of the Northeast and upper Midwest as well as portions of the northern Great Plains and Intermountain West, with statistically significant increases in the 10 to 15 percent range for the Northeast, the northernmost regions of the upper Midwest, and portions of the northern Great Plains.

Projected decreases are as follows: up to 5 percent for southern regions of the Southwest and northern and central Texas; 5 to 10 percent for southern New Mexico and western Texas; and 5 to 10 percent or greater for southwestern Texas.

Droughts, a natural part of Michigan’s climate, are projected to increase in intensity due to higher temperatures and the associated increase in evaporation rates and soil moisture loss.

Details on observations and projections are available on the Technical Details and Additional Information page.
The compiled version of the 2022 State Climate Summaries, including the complete author list and recommended citations, is available on the Downloads page.

Authors
Laura E. Stevens, North Carolina State University
James Anheuser, North Carolina State University
Mark R. Essig, North Carolina State University
April D. Lamb, North Carolina State University
Thomas K. Maycock, North Carolina State University
Andrea L. McCarrick, North Carolina State University
Alexis Visovatti, North Carolina State University
Contributors
Jessicca Allen, Visual Communications Lead and PDF Layout, North Carolina State University
Jeff Bliss, Data Explorer Tool Development, National Environmental Mapping and Applications Center
Amy Camper, Visual Communications and PDF Layout, Innovative Consulting & Management Services, LLC
Ryan Cox, Web Application Engineer, North Carolina State University
Jacquelyn Crossman, Citation Management, NOAA NCEI Librarian, MPF-ZAI
Greg Dobson, GIS and Figure Development, National Environmental Mapping and Applications Center
David R. Easterling, Advisor, Future Climate, LLC, and Earth Knowledge, Inc.
Aaron Goodman, Web Developer, North Carolina State University
Katharine M. Johnson, Web Team Lead and GIS Analyst, North Carolina State University
Kenneth E. Kunkel, Advisor and Principal Research Scholar, North Carolina State University
Ciara R. Lemery, Figure and Production Coordination, Independent Contractor
Angel Li, Web Developer, North Carolina State University
Dave Michelson, Data Explorer Tool Development, National Environmental Mapping and Applications Center
Ronald Opio, Data Analysis and Figure Development, North Carolina State University
Xia Sun, Data Analysis and Figure Development, North Carolina State University
Xiangdong Zhang, Advisor, North Carolina State University
Acknowledgements
Tamara Houston, Regional Climate Center Review Coordination, NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information
Melissa Widhalm, Midwest Region Expert Review, Midwestern Regional Climate Center, Purdue University
Recommended Citation
Stevens, L.E., J. Anheuser, M.R. Essig, A.D. Lamb, T.K. Maycock, A.L. McCarrick, and A. Visovatti, 2026: 2025 State Climate Summaries for the United States: Michigan. [Update to Frankson et al., 2022: Michigan State Climate Summary 2022.] North Carolina Institute for Climate Studies Report NCICS-001-MI. North Carolina State University, Asheville, NC. https://doi.org/10.52750/509515

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