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2025 State Climate Summaries

MINNESOTA

A Lake for a Morning Wanderer by Always Shooting
License: CC BY 2.0

KEY MESSAGES

Key Message1

Annual average temperatures in Minnesota have increased more than 3°F since the beginning of the 20th century. Under the intermediate and higher emissions pathways, historically unprecedented warming is projected during this century. Rising temperatures are projected to increase the intensity of naturally occurring droughts.

Key Message2

Total annual precipitation has gradually increased since the 1930s. Under the intermediate emissions pathway, statistically significant increases are projected by midcentury in annual, winter, and spring precipitation across northern portions of the state.

Key Message3

Extreme precipitation events are projected to increase in frequency and intensity, potentially resulting in increased flooding and associated impacts, such as increased erosion, infrastructure damage, and agricultural losses.

Minnesota’s location in the interior of North America and the lack of mountains to the north and south expose the state to incursions of bitterly cold air masses from the Arctic in the winter and warm, humid air masses from the Gulf of America (formerly Gulf of Mexico) in the summer, resulting in large temperature variations across the seasons. Temperature extremes have ranged from as high as 115°F (July 29, 1917, at Beardsley) to as low as −60°F (February 2, 1996, at Tower). Typical winter low temperatures range from below 0°F in the far north to more than 10°F in parts of the south (1991–2020 averages). Average summer high temperatures range from the low 70s (°F) in the northeast to more than 80°F in the south. The summer is characterized by frequent warm air masses, either hot and dry continental air masses from the arid west and southwest or warm and moist air that pushes northward from the gulf. The summer is also punctuated by periodic intrusions of cooler air from Canada, providing breaks from the heat. The state’s location in the transition zone between the humid climate of the eastern United States and the semiarid climate of the Great Plains also creates large differences in average precipitation across the state. Annual average precipitation, including rainfall and the water equivalent found in snowfall, ranges from less than 25 inches in the far northwest to more than 35 inches in the southeast. Snowstorms are a normal part of the winter and early spring climate, with annual average snowfall ranging from 30 to 60 inches over most of the state, with higher values of up to 70 inches along the Canadian border and 90 inches along the shores of Lake Superior.

Figure 1 Observed and Projected Temperature Change
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Figure 1. Observed and Projected Temperature Change. For more details, consult the image description section following the caption.
Figure 1: Observed and projected changes (compared to the 1901–1960 average) in near-surface annual average air temperature for Minnesota. Observed data are for 1900–2024. Projected changes for 2015–2100 were generated using global climate models to explore three possible futures, associated with lower, intermediate, and higher greenhouse gas emissions pathways (the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively). Temperatures in Minnesota (black line) have increased more than 3°F since the beginning of the 20th century (based on a linear trend). Shading indicates the range of annual temperatures from the set of models. Observed temperatures are generally within the envelope of model simulations of the historical period (light gray shading). Less warming is expected under a lower emissions future (the coldest end-of-century projections being about 2.1°F warmer than the 1901–1960 average; blue shading) and more warming under a higher emissions future (the hottest end-of-century projections being about 14.9°F warmer than the hottest year in the observed record; red shading), while the intermediate emissions future leads to moderate warming (with end-of-century projections ranging from about 5.0°F to 12.6°F above the 1901–1960 average; dark gray shading). Adapted from Runkle et al. 2022. Data: NClimDiv and CMIP6.
Description

Time series of observed and projected temperature change (in degrees Fahrenheit) for Minnesota from 1900 to 2100 as described in the caption.

Y-axis values range from negative 8 to positive 24 degrees. Observed annual temperatures from 1900 to 2024 show variability and range from negative 4.1 to positive 5.7 degrees. By the end of the century, projected increases in temperature range from 1.9 to 10.0 degrees under the lower emissions pathway, from 5.3 to 12.7 degrees under the intermediate pathway, and from 9.9 to 21.3 degrees under the higher pathway.

Annual average temperatures in Minnesota have increased more than 3°F since the beginning of the 20th century (Figure 1). This warming has been concentrated in the winter, with summers warming significantly but not as much as winters. Summer warming is seen in the increase in nighttime (minimum) temperatures across the period of record (Figure 2b), while summer daytime (maximum) temperatures show no overall trend (Figure 2a). Since the 1990s, the annual number of hot days has generally been below average (Figure 3a). Although average nighttime temperatures have increased, there is no overall trend in the annual number of nights at or above 70°F, which was highest in the 1930s (Figure 3b).

Figure 2 Observed Summer Maximum and Summer Minimum Temperatures
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Figure 2. Observed Summer Maximum and Summer Minimum Temperatures. For more details, consult the image description section following the caption.
Figure 2: Observed summer (June–August) average (a) maximum and (b) minimum temperatures for Minnesota from 1895 to 2024. Dots show annual values. Bars show averages over 5-year periods. The horizontal black lines show the long-term (entire period) averages of (a) 78.2°F and (b) 54.7°F. Minnesota experienced its highest summer maximum (daytime) temperatures during the extreme heat of the 1930s Dust Bowl era. Summer minimum (nighttime) temperatures have increased over the period of record, with 5-year averages being consistently above the long-term average since the late1990s. Adapted from Runkle et al. 2022. Data: NClimDiv.
Description

Two graphs of summer (a) maximum and (b) minimum temperatures for Minnesota from 1895 to 2024 as described in the caption.

Panel A: Summer Maximum Temperature
Y-axis values range from 72 to 86 degrees Fahrenheit. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 72.8 to 84.0 degrees. Five-year values also show variability and are mostly below the long-term average of 78.2 degrees between 1895 and 1929, above average between 1930 and 1939, and all below average between 1940 and 1954. Since 1955, 5-year values are mostly near or above average. The 1990 to 1994 period has the lowest 5-year value at 76.2 degrees, and the 1930 to 1934 period has the highest at 81.4 degrees.

Panel B: Summer Minimum Temperature
Y-axis values range from 48 to 60 degrees Fahrenheit. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 49.5 to 58.0 degrees. Five-year values also show variability and are all below the long-term average of 54.7 degrees between 1895 and 1929 and all near or above average between 1930 and 1964 except for the 1954 to 1959 period. The 1965 to 1969 period is below average, but since 1970, all 5-year values are near or above average except for the 1990 to 1994 period. The 1925 to 1929 period has the lowest 5-year value at 52.2 degrees, and the 2020 to 2024 period has the highest at 56.9 degrees.

Figure 3 Observed Number of Hot Days and Warm Nights
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Figure 3. Observed Number of Hot Days and Warm Nights. For more details, consult the image description section following the caption.
Figure 3: Observed annual number of (a) hot days (maximum temperature of 90°F or higher) and (b) warm nights (minimum temperature of 70°F or higher) for Minnesota from 1900 to 2024. Dots show annual values. Bars show averages over 5-year periods. The horizontal black lines show the long-term (entire period) averages of (a) 7.6 days and (b) about 2.0 nights. The number of hot days has generally been below average since the 1990s. Five-year averages were highest in the 1930s. The number of warm nights also peaked during the 1930s and shows no long-term trend. Adapted from Runkle et al. 2022. Data: GHCN-Daily.
Description

Two graphs of the observed annual number of (a) hot days and (b) warm nights for Minnesota from 1900 to 2024 as described in the caption.

Panel A: Hot Days
Y-axis values range from 0 to 28 days. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0.2 to 26.4 days. Five-year values also show variability and are below the long-term average of 7.6 days between 1900 and 1909 but are mostly near or above average between 1910 and 1989. Since 1990, all 5-year values are below average. The 1990 to 1994 period has the lowest 5-year value at 2.8 days, and the 1930 to 1934 period has the highest at 18.8 days.

Panel B: Warm Nights
Y-axis values for warm nights range from 0 to 12 nights. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0 to 10.1 nights. Five-year values also show variability and are all near or below the long-term average of 2.0 nights between 1900 and 1929 but are all near or above average between 1930 and 1949. Since 1950, 5-year values are mostly near or below average. The 1905 to 1909 period has the lowest 5-year value at 0.7 nights, and the 1930 to 1934 and 1935 to 1939 periods have the highest at 4.8 and 4.0 nights, respectively.

A winter warming trend is reflected in a generally below-average number of very cold days since the 2000s, with a historic low occurring during the 2000–2004 period (Figure 4). There has also been a general trend across the state’s lakes toward earlier ice-out dates (date each spring when the entire lake surface becomes ice free). For example, Lake Osakis has seen a clear trend to earlier dates, particularly in recent decades, although recent years have been highly variable (Figure 5).

Figure 4 Observed Number of Very Cold Days
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Figure 4. Observed Number of Very Cold Days. For more details, consult the image description section following the caption.
Figure 4: Observed annual number of very cold days (maximum temperature of 0°F or lower) for Minnesota from 1900 to 2024. Dots show annual values. Bars show averages over 5-year periods. The horizontal black line shows the long-term average of 5.1 days. Since 1980, the number of very cold days has generally been near or below average. Adapted from Runkle et al. 2022. Data: GHCN-Daily.
Description

Graph of the observed annual number of very cold days for Minnesota from 1900 to 2024 as described in the caption.

Y-axis values range from 0 to 24 days. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0 to 20.0 days. Five-year values also show variability and are mostly near or above the long-term average of 5.1 days between 1900 and 1939, all below average between 1940 and 1959, and mostly near or above average between 1960 and 1999. Since 2000, 5-year values are all below average. The 2000 to 2004 period has the lowest 5-year value at 2.1 days, and the 1915 to 1919 period has the highest at 10.1 days.

Figure 5 Ice-Out Date on Lake Osakis
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Figure 5. Ice-Out Date on Lake Osakis. For more details, consult the image description section following the caption.
Figure 5: Annual changes in ice-out dates for Lake Osakis (blue line) from 1867 to 2024. The black line shows the long-term trend. Lake Osakis ice-out dates have generally been getting earlier but with notable year-to-year variability, particularly over the last decade. Adapted from Runkle et al. 2022. Data: Minnesota Department of Natural Resources.
Description

Line graph of the annual ice out dates for Lake Osakis, Minnesota, from 1867 to 2024 as described in the caption.

Ice-out dates along the y-axis (from top to bottom) are June 1, May 16, May 1, April 16, April 1, March 16, and March 1. Annual values show wide variability, as exemplified by the close temporal proximity of the earliest and latest ice-out dates on record: March 8, 2024, and May 21, 2021, respectively. Ice-out dates earlier than April 16 were rare prior to the early 1910s but occurred more frequently until the period between the early 1930s and early 1980s, when ice-out dates generally occurred between April 16 and May 1. Between the mid-1980s and the early 2020s, ice-out dates mostly occurred between April 1 and May 1. The trend line moves downward across the period, indicating increasingly earlier ice-out dates.

Total annual precipitation in Minnesota has increased gradually since the 1930s and has mostly been above the long-term average since the late 1960s (Figure 6). Annual precipitation has ranged from a low of 22.7 inches in 1930 to a high of 41.8 inches in 2019. Since the late 1980s, the number of 2-inch extreme precipitation events has generally been near or above average (Figure 7).

Figure 6 Observed Total Annual Precipitation
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Figure 6. Observed Total Annual Precipitation. For more details, consult the image description section following the caption.
Figure 6: Observed total annual precipitation for Minnesota from 1895 to 2024. Dots show annual values. Bars show averages over 5-year periods. The horizontal black line shows the long-term (entire period) average of 26.4 inches. Annual precipitation has mostly been above the long-term average since the late 1960s. Adapted from Runkle et al. 2022. Data: NClimDiv.
Description

Graph of the observed total annual precipitation for Minnesota from 1895 to 2024 as described in the caption.

Y-axis values range from 12 to 40 inches. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 15.1 to 35.6 inches. Five-year values also show variability and are all near or above the long-term average of 26.4 inches between 1895 and 1909, all below average between 1910 and 1939, and mostly near or above average between 1940 and 1989. Since 1990, 5-year values are all above average except for the 2020 to 2024 period. The 1930 to 1934 period has the lowest 5-year value at 21.8 inches, and the 2015 to 2019 period has the highest at 31.4 inches.

Figure 7 Observed Number of 2-Inch Extreme Precipitation Events
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Figure 7. Observed Number of 2-Inch Extreme Precipitation Events. For more details, consult the image description section following the caption.
Figure 7: Observed annual number of 2-inch extreme precipitation events (days with precipitation of 2 inches or more) for Minnesota from 1900 to 2024. Dots show annual values. Bars show averages over 5-year periods. The horizontal black line shows the long-term average of 0.9 events, indicating that a typical station experiences about one event per year. Since the late 1980s, the number of 2-inch extreme precipitation events has generally been near or above average. Adapted from Runkle et al. 2022. Data: GHCN-Daily.
Description

Graph of the observed annual number of 2-inch extreme precipitation events for Minnesota from 1900 to 2024 as described in the caption.

Y-axis values range from 0.0 to 2.5 events. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0.3 to 2.1 events. Five-year values also show variability and are above the long-term average of 0.9 events between 1900 and 1909, all below average between 1910 and 1939, mostly near or above average between 1940 and 1955, and all near or below average between 1960 and 1984. Since 1985, 5-year values are all above average except for the 2005 to 2009 period. The 1930 to 1934 period has the lowest 5-year value at 0.5 events, and the 2015 to 2019 period has the highest at 1.3 events.

Recent events demonstrate the likelihood of simultaneous increases in both flooding and drought severity within the state. Several major flooding events have occurred in recent years, including the most damaging flood in Duluth's history during July 19–20, 2012. Heavy rains fell on saturated ground, with some locations receiving more than 10 inches of precipitation in a 24-hour period. Southern Minnesota experienced catastrophic flooding during June 15–24, 2024, when several rounds of thunderstorms brought rainfall totals of 5–10 inches over a wide area. Nearly two-thirds of annual precipitation falls during the growing season (May–September). However, occasional drought is a natural feature of the climate, occurring when anomalous circulation patterns bring in dry air from the interior of North America. Recent major droughts across the state occurred in 2007, 2012, and 2021. For most of the state, the 2021 drought was the worst to occur in 10–30 years.

From 1980–2024, Minnesota experienced 62 weather and climate-related disaster events with losses exceeding $1 billion each. In general, thunderstorms cause more property damage in Minnesota than any other type of extreme event. On August 11, 2023, Minnesota experienced a severe storm producing large hailstones and wind gusts of about 40 to 70 mph, causing an estimated $1.8 billion in damages. The state averaged 46 tornadoes a year between 1991 and 2020. Although most were recorded between May and September, outbreaks sometimes occur in other seasons. Twenty tornadoes were confirmed in southeast Minnesota on December 15, 2021, the first December tornadoes in the state’s history.

Due to Minnesota’s northern location, heat waves are infrequent but can have severe consequences for populations less acclimated to these events. Between 1999 and 2024, heat events occurred most frequently in the central and southern counties, with the highest number occurring in Olmsted county (Figure 8).

Figure 8 Number of Heat Events by County (1999–2024)
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Figure 8. Number of Heat Events by County (1999–2024). For more details, consult the image description section following the caption.
Figure 8: Total number of heat events by county for Minnesota from 1999 to 2024. Heat events (whenever heat index values meet or exceed locally/regionally established advisory thresholds) occurred more frequently in counties located in central and southern Minnesota. Source: CISESS NC. Data: NOAA NCEI.
Description

A county-level map of Minnesota shows the total number of declared extreme heat events from 1999 to 2024.

A color-coded legend to the right of the map indicates the range of events: 0 events reported, light gray; 1, light yellow; 2, medium yellow; 3, dark yellow; 4, light orange; 5, medium orange; 6, dark orange; 7, light red; 8, medium red; and 9, dark red. The majority of counties in the northern half of the state, including the central counties of Big Stone, Traverse, Grant, Otter Tail, Wadena, Cass, Crow Wing, Aitkin, and Pine, had 1 to 2 events. Exceptions are Cook, Koochiching, Norman, Clay, and Wilkins Counties with 0 events; Carlton with 3; and Saint Louis with 5. The majority of counties in the southern half of the state had 6 events. Exceptions are Pipestone and Nobles Counties with 4 events, Lyon and Hennepin with 7, Dodge with 8, and Olmsted with 9.

Under the intermediate and higher emissions pathways, historically unprecedented warming is projected during this century (Figure 1). Even under the lower emissions pathway, some projections show annual average temperatures exceeding historical levels by the middle of the century. However, projections for all three pathways show a large range of potential temperature increases, and some projections for the lower pathway are comparable to recent observed values. With rising temperatures, the number of extremely hot days is projected to increase, and the number of extremely cold days is projected to decrease.

Under the intermediate emissions pathway, statistically significant increases in total annual, winter, and spring precipitation (Figure 9) are projected by midcentury across northern portions of Minnesota but are less certain elsewhere. There is uncertainty in projections for summer and fall precipitation. Increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall and associated flooding are also expected, potentially leading to increases in erosion, infrastructure damage, and agricultural losses.

Figure 9 Projected Changes in Total Spring Precipitation
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Figure 9. Projected Changes in Total Spring Precipitation. For more details, consult the image description section following the caption.
Figure 9: Projected changes in total spring (March–May) precipitation (%) for the middle of the 21st century (2041–2070) compared to the 1991–2020 average under the intermediate emissions pathway (SSP2-4.5 scenario). For areas with hatching, a majority of models project statistically significant changes and agree on the direction of change. For areas without hatching, less than half of models project statistically significant changes. Statistically significant increases of 10–15% in total spring precipitation are projected for north-central and northwestern portions of Minnesota by midcentury. Spring precipitation is also projected to increase throughout the rest of the state; however, these changes are not statistically significant. Adapted from Runkle et al. 2022. Data: CMIP6.
Description

Map of the contiguous United States showing the projected changes in total spring precipitation by the middle of this century as described in the caption. The state of Minnesota is outlined in black.

Legend values range from less than negative 10 to greater than positive 15 percent. Note: unless otherwise specified, projected values are not statistically significant.

Minnesota
The majority of Minnesota is projected to see increases in total spring precipitation of 10 to 15 percent, with statistically significant increases in that range expected in the north-central and northwestern regions. Increases of 5 to 10 percent are projected for small portions of the southwest and southeast.

Contiguous US
Projected increases in total spring precipitation are as follows: up to 5 percent across a narrow strip running westward and curving northwestward from western Georgia into the Pacific Northwest; 5 to 10 percent in the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast, as well as southern areas of the Midwest, central portions of the Great Plains, and portions of the Northwest; and 10 to 15 percent in the northern areas of the Northeast, Midwest, and Great Plains, with statistically significant increases in the 10 to 15 percent range across the northern border of the country stretching from Maine to Montana.

Decreases of up to 10 percent are seen across the southern Great Plains and Southwest, including southern Texas, all of Arizona, and most of New Mexico and California.

Future droughts are projected to be more intense due to higher temperatures and the associated increase in evaporation rates and soil moisture loss.

Details on observations and projections are available on the Technical Details and Additional Information page.
The compiled version of the 2022 State Climate Summaries, including the complete author list and recommended citations, is available on the Downloads page.

Authors
Laura E. Stevens, North Carolina State University
James Anheuser, North Carolina State University
Mark R. Essig, North Carolina State University
April D. Lamb, North Carolina State University
Thomas K. Maycock, North Carolina State University
Andrea L. McCarrick, North Carolina State University
Alexis Visovatti, North Carolina State University
Contributors
Jessicca Allen, Visual Communications Lead and PDF Layout, North Carolina State University
Jeff Bliss, Data Explorer Tool Development, National Environmental Mapping and Applications Center
Amy Camper, Visual Communications and PDF Layout, Innovative Consulting & Management Services, LLC
Ryan Cox, Web Application Engineer, North Carolina State University
Jacquelyn Crossman, Citation Management, NOAA NCEI Librarian, MPF-ZAI
Greg Dobson, GIS and Figure Development, National Environmental Mapping and Applications Center
David R. Easterling, Advisor, Future Climate, LLC, and Earth Knowledge, Inc.
Aaron Goodman, Web Developer, North Carolina State University
Katharine M. Johnson, Web Team Lead and GIS Analyst, North Carolina State University
Kenneth E. Kunkel, Advisor and Principal Research Scholar, North Carolina State University
Ciara R. Lemery, Figure and Production Coordination, Independent Contractor
Angel Li, Web Developer, North Carolina State University
Dave Michelson, Data Explorer Tool Development, National Environmental Mapping and Applications Center
Ronald Opio, Data Analysis and Figure Development, North Carolina State University
Xia Sun, Data Analysis and Figure Development, North Carolina State University
Xiangdong Zhang, Advisor, North Carolina State University
Acknowledgements
Tamara Houston, Regional Climate Center Review Coordination, NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information
Melissa Widhalm, Midwest Region Expert Review, Midwestern Regional Climate Center, Purdue University
Recommended Citation
Stevens, L.E., J. Anheuser, M.R. Essig, A.D. Lamb, T.K. Maycock, A.L. McCarrick, and A. Visovatti, 2026: 2025 State Climate Summaries for the United States: Minnesota. [Update to Runkle et al., 2022: Minnesota State Climate Summary 2022.] North Carolina Institute for Climate Studies Report NCICS-001-MN. North Carolina State University, Asheville, NC. https://doi.org/10.52750/421005

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