Missouri’s location in the interior of North America and the lack of mountain barriers to the north and south expose the state to incursions of cold Arctic air masses in the winter and warm, moist air masses from the Gulf of America (formerly Gulf of Mexico) in the summer. Typical winter low temperatures range from less than 20°F in the north to more than 30°F in the Missouri Bootheel. Average summer high temperatures range from the mid-80s (°F) in the north to the low 90s in the south (1991–2020 averages). Total annual precipitation varies widely across the state, from less than 35 inches in the northwest to more than 50 inches in the southeast. The northern part of the state receives more snowfall, with annual totals of more than 20 inches in some locations, compared to less than 5 inches in the south.
Time series of observed and projected temperature change (in degrees Fahrenheit) for Missouri from 1900 to 2100 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from negative 4 to positive 20 degrees. Observed annual temperatures from 1900 to 2024 show variability and range from negative 2.8 to positive 4.0 degrees. By the end of the century, projected increases in temperature range from 1.9 to 8.2 degrees under the lower emissions pathway, from 4.2 to 11.0 degrees under the intermediate pathway, and from 8.4 to 17.7 degrees under the higher pathway.
Since the beginning of the 20th century, annual average temperatures in Missouri have increased more than 1°F (Figure 1), and temperatures in the 2000s have generally been above average. The hottest year on record was 2012, with an annual average temperature of 58.6°F, which is 3.9°F higher than the long-term (1895–2024) average. Warming has been concentrated in the winter and spring, while summers have not warmed substantially (Figures 2a and 2b). In general, recent summer temperatures have been slightly above the long-term average since the 2010s but still below levels experienced during the 1930s Dust Bowl era, a feature characteristic of much of the Midwest. In general, summer daytime (maximum) temperatures have been near or below the long-term average since the late 1980s (Figure 3a), while recent nighttime (minimum) temperatures are slightly above Dust Bowl levels (Figure 3b).
Two graphs of the observed (a) winter and (b) summer average temperatures for Missouri from 1895–96 to 2023–24 and 1895 to 2024, respectively, as described in the caption.
Panel A: Winter Average Temperature
Y-axis values range from 22 to 42 degrees Fahrenheit. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 24.0 to 39.6 degrees. Five-year values also show variability and are all below the long-term average of 32.4 degrees between 1895 and 1919, all near or above average between 1920 and 1954, and all below average between 1955 and 1989. Since 1990, all 5-year values are above average except for the 2010 to 2014 period. The 1975 to 1979 period has the lowest 5-year value at 28.7 degrees, and the 1930 to 1934 and 2020 to 2024 periods have the highest at 35.5 and 35.6 degrees, respectively.
Panel B: Summer Average TemperatureY-axis values range from 70 to 84 degrees Fahrenheit. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 71.3 to 81.8 degrees. Five-year values also show variability and are mostly near or below the long-term average of 75.6 degrees between 1895 and 1929, mostly above average between 1930 and 1954, and all below average between 1955 and 2004 except for the 1980 to 1984 period. Since 2005, 5-year values are all above average. The 1965 to 1969 period has the lowest 5-year value at 74.3 degrees, and the 1930 to 1934 and 1935 to 1939 periods have the highest at 77.9 and 77.4 degrees, respectively.
Two graphs of the observed summer (a) maximum and (b) minimum temperatures for Missouri from 1895 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Panel A: Summer Maximum Temperature
Y-axis values range from 80 to 98 degrees Fahrenheit. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 81.5 to 96.0 degrees. Five-year values also show variability and are mostly near or below the long-term average of 87.0 degrees across the entire period. Exceptions include the 1930 to 1934 and 1935 to 1939 periods, which have the highest 5-year values at 90.4 and 89.5 degrees, respectively. The 1965 to 1969 period has the lowest 5-year value at 85.5 degrees.
Panel B: Summer Minimum TemperatureY-axis values range from 60 to 70 degrees Fahrenheit. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 60.8 to 68.2 degrees. Five-year values also show variability and are all near or below the long-term average of 64.2 degrees between 1895 and 1929, all above average between 1930 and 1944, and all below average between 1945 and 1994 except for the 1950 to 1954 and 1980 to 1984 periods. Since 1995, 5-year values are all above average. The 1925 to 1929 period has the lowest 5-year value at 62.9 degrees, and the 2010 to 2014, 2015 to 2019, and 2020 to 2024 periods have the highest at 65.7, 65.6, and 65.5 degrees, respectively.
The number of extremely hot days has generally been below average since the late 1950s (Figure 4a). In addition to the overall trend of higher average temperatures, the state has generally seen a near- or above-average number of very warm nights since the late 1990s (Figure 4b). At St. Louis Lambert International Airport, the number of very warm nights has increased from 13 per year during 1961–1990 to 20 per year during 1991–2024. There has also been an upward trend in summer humidity since the mid-20th century. The winter warming trend is reflected in a generally below-average number of very cold nights since the 1990s (Figure 5).
Two graphs of the observed annual number of (a) extremely hot days and (b) very warm nights for Missouri from 1900 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Panel A: Extremely Hot Days
Y-axis values range from 0 to 50 days. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0 to 45.5 days. Five-year values also show variability and are mostly near or above the long-term average of 4.4 days between 1900 and 1954 but are all below average since 1955 except for the 1980 to 1984 and 2010 to 2014 periods. The 2015 to 2019 period has the lowest 5-year value at 0.3 days, and the 1930 to 1934 and 1935 to 1939 periods have the highest at 14.5 and 13.5 days, respectively.
Panel B: Very Warm NightsY-axis values range from 0 to 28 nights. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0.3 to 25.5 nights. Five-year values also show variability and are all near or below the long-term average of 3.9 nights between 1900 and 1929, above average between 1930 and 1939, and all below average between 1940 and 1994 except for the 1950 to 1954 and 1980 to 1984 periods. Since 1995, 5-year values are all above average. The 1970 to 1974 period has the lowest 5-year value at 1.4 nights, and the 1930 to 1934 and 1935 to 1939 periods have the highest at 9.4 and 8.4 nights, respectively.
Graph of the observed annual number of very cold nights for Missouri from 1900 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from 0 to 20 nights. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0 to 17.3 nights. Five-year values also show variability and are all above the long-term average of 4.8 nights between 1900 and 1919, all near or below average between 1920 and 1959 except for the 1940 to 1944 period, and all near or above average between 1960 and 1989 except for the 1965 to 1969 period. Since 1990, 5-year values are all below average. The 2005 to 2009 period has the lowest 5-year value at 1.7 nights, and the 1975 to 1979 period has the highest at 10.5 nights.
Statewide total annual precipitation has ranged from a low of 25.1 inches in 1953 to a high of 57.1 inches in 1973 and has generally been near or above average since the 1990s (Figure 6a). Summer precipitation exhibits no overall trend (Figure 6b). Missouri has generally experienced a near- or above-average number of 2-inch extreme precipitation events since the 1980s (Figure 7).
Two graphs of the observed total (a) annual and (b) summer precipitation for Missouri from 1895 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Panel A: Total Annual Precipitation
Y-axis values range from 20 to 60 inches. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 25.1 to 57.1 inches. Five-year values also show variability and are mostly below the long-term average of 41.1 inches between 1895 and 1964. Exceptions include the 1925 to 1929 and 1945 to 1949 periods. Since 1965, 5-year values are all near or above average except for the 1975 to 1979 and 1985 to 1989 periods. The 1930 to 1934 period has the lowest 5-year value at 36.0 inches, and the 1990 to 1994 and 2015 to 2019 periods have the highest at 46.0 and 46.7 inches, respectively.
Panel B: Total Summer PrecipitationY-axis values range from 0 to 24 inches. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 3.9 to 20.2 inches. Five-year values also show variability and are all near or above the long-term average of 12.2 inches between 1895 and 1929 except for the 1910 to 1914 period, but they are mostly near or below average across the remainder of the period. One exception is the 2015 to 2019 period, which has the highest 5-year value at 15.2 inches. The 1910 to 1914 and 1930 to 1934 periods have the lowest 5-year values at 10.0 and 9.4 inches, respectively.
Graph of the observed annual number of 2-inch extreme precipitation events for Missouri from 1900 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from 0 to 7 events. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0.6 to 6.0 events. Five-year values also show variability and are mostly near or below the long-term average of 2.3 events between 1900 and 1979 but are all near or above average since 1980. The 1950 to 1954 period has the lowest 5-year value at 1.4 events, and the 2005 to 2009 period the highest at 3.4 events.
Because agriculture is an important sector of Missouri’s economy, the state is particularly vulnerable to extreme precipitation conditions. Both droughts and floods can result in billions of dollars in losses. In 2012, a severe drought across the Midwest had large impacts on Missouri. Rainfall for the critical growth period of May–July totaled only 5.8 inches, several inches below average, resulting in the third-driest growth period (after 1901 and 1936) in 130 years of recordkeeping (1895–2024). The drought was the worst Missouri had seen in 30 years. By the end of July, all 114 counties had been declared disaster areas. Missouri also experienced a lengthy period of drought conditions from summer 2022 to spring 2024. This event set a drought duration record for the state, which experienced moderate to exceptional drought (as defined by the US Drought Monitor) for 102 consecutive weeks.
The state’s position in the lower basins of several large rivers makes downstream flooding an extreme hazard. One of the most severe climate events in the state’s history was the 1993 Mississippi River flood. Near St. Louis, the Mississippi River crested at 49.6 feet, almost 20 feet above flood stage and 6 feet higher than the previous peak in April 1973. The flooding resulted in billions of dollars in damages to homes, businesses, agriculture, and infrastructure. In 2011, the state experienced flooding along both the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers. A wet April along the Ohio River Valley and record snowmelt in the upper Mississippi River Basin caused record swelling along both the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers. In June of that year, a combination of runoff from a record winter snowpack in the northern Rockies and heavy rains caused major flooding along the entire length of the Missouri River. In mid-March 2019, a major storm and associated snowmelt resulted in historic Midwest flooding, the worst since 1993, inundating millions of acres of farmland and numerous cities and towns and causing widespread damage to roads, bridges, levees, and dams. Additional persistent, heavy rainfall pushed rivers to similar levels in early June 2019. Major flooding occurred in the St. Louis metro area on July 26, 2022, following several rounds of severe thunderstorms. The city broke its record for the most rainfall in a 24-hour period with 8.6 inches, exceeding the previous record of 6.9 inches set in 1915. The flooding resulted in two fatalities and hundreds of people being rescued from floodwaters.
Missouri occasionally experiences very impactful winter snow and ice events. A storm over November 30–December 1, 2006, dropped as much as 2 inches of freezing rain and sleet and 18 inches of snow, bringing down tree limbs and power lines and leaving hundreds of thousands of people without power as temperatures dipped below 20°F. During the summer, the state’s lack of geographic barriers allows cold, dry air from the north to collide with warm, moist air from the Gulf of America, triggering severe thunderstorms that can produce high winds, heavy rain, tornadoes, and hail. On April 10, 2001, a strong thunderstorm produced catastrophic hail damage across the I-70 corridor. The storm produced hail as large as 3 inches in diameter, and damages in the Kansas City and St. Louis areas were estimated at more than $1 billion, making it one of the costliest hailstorms in US history. Missouri also has a long and deadly history of tornadic storms. On March 18, 1925, the Tri-State Tornado, the deadliest tornado in US history, tracked more than 200 miles from southeastern Missouri, across southern Illinois, and into Indiana. In Missouri, the storm killed at least 11 people and caused extensive property damage, including the near-complete destruction of the town of Annapolis. On May 22, 2011, an EF5 tornado with winds exceeding 200 mph hit the city of Joplin, killing more than 150 people and causing billions of dollars in damages. This was the deadliest tornado in Missouri history.
Under the intermediate and higher emissions pathways, historically unprecedented warming is projected during this century (Figure 1). Even under the lower emissions pathway, most projections show annual average temperatures exceeding historical levels by the middle of the century. However, projections for all three pathways show a large range of potential temperature increases, and some projections for the lower pathway are comparable to recent observed values. With rising temperatures, the intensity of cold waves is projected to decrease, while future heat waves are expected to be more intense. This is a concern for the state, which already experiences hot and humid conditions. Extreme heat is a particular concern for urban areas, such as St. Louis and Kansas City. Heat absorbed and emitted by buildings and pavement, as well as other aspects of urban environments, makes cities even warmer than the surrounding countryside, a phenomenon known as the urban heat island effect. During July 9–14, 1966, St. Louis experienced a severe heat wave that caused many deaths. In addition to daytime highs between 101°F and 106°F at St. Louis Lambert International Airport, nighttime temperatures never dropped below 77°F, and on July 12 the low was only 84°F. Over August 19–25, 2023, Kansas City and the surrounding area reached highs not recorded since August 2012. On August 19, the maximum heat index was 121°F at the Kansas City International Airport, 119°F in downtown Kansas City, and 121°F in St. Joesph (about an hour north of the city).
Under the intermediate emissions pathway, projections indicate increases in total annual precipitation for Missouri by midcentury; however, these changes are not statistically significant (Figure 8). There is similar uncertainty in projections for seasonal precipitation, although models generally indicate statewide increases in spring, fall, and winter and decreases across most of the state in fall. The frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events are projected to increase, potentially increasing the frequency and intensity of floods. Springtime flooding in particular could pose a threat to Missouri’s important agricultural economy by delaying planting and reducing crop yields.
Map of the contiguous United States showing the projected changes in total annual precipitation by the middle of this century as described in the caption. The state of Missouri is outlined in black.
Legend values range from less than negative 10 to greater than positive 15 percent. Note: unless otherwise specified, projected values are not statistically significant.
Missouri
The entire state of Missouri is projected to see increases in total annual precipitation of up to 5 percent.
Contiguous US
Projected increases in total annual precipitation are as follows: up to 5 percent for most of the Southeast, as well as the central Midwest, central Great Plains, central West, and Northwest; and 5 to 10 percent for all of the Northeast, as well as portions of the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, northern Midwest, northern Great Plains, and Pacific Northwest, with statistically significant increases in the 5 to 10 percent range for the Northeast, northeastern Midwest, and portions of the northern Great Plains and Pacific Northwest.
Projected decreases of up to 5 percent are expected across most of Texas, New Mexico, and Arizona, as well as southern California.
Droughts, a natural part of Missouri’s climate, are a risk to this agriculture-dependent state. The intensity of droughts is projected to increase due to higher temperatures and the associated increase in evaporation rates and soil moisture loss.
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