Skip to main content
  • Mississippi
  • Home
  • Key Messages
  • Downloads
  • Supplemental Materials
  • Errata
    Updated: 01/10/27

NOAA National Centers
for Environmental Information

State Climate Summaries (Revised 2019)

MISSISSIPPI

Key Messages   Narrative   Downloads  

Mississippi State Capitol - 1
Photo by Stuart Seeger

Key Message 1

Mississippi has exhibited little overall warming in near-surface air temperatures over the 20th and early 21st centuries. However, under a higher emissions pathway, historically unprecedented future warming is projected by the end of the 21st century.

Key Message 2

Future changes in average precipitation are uncertain, but increases in extreme precipitation are projected. Higher temperatures will increase the rate of loss of soil moisture during dry spells, increasing the intensity of naturally occurring droughts.

Key Message 3

Sea level rise poses widespread and continuing threats to coastal communities of Mississippi. Potential impacts of sea level rise include higher storm surge and disappearing barrier islands.

Tallahatchie River Bridges (Lafayette and Marshall Counties, Mississippi)
Photo by C Hanchey

MISSISSIPPI

Mississippi is located on the coast of the Gulf of Mexico and on the southern end of the vast, relatively flat plains of central North America. The state is therefore exposed to diverse air masses, including the warm, moist air over the Gulf of Mexico as well as dry continental air masses, which are cold in the winter and warm in the summer. Relatively mild winters, hot summers, and year-round precipitation characterize Mississippi’s climate. In addition to serving as a predominant source of moisture, the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico help moderate temperatures along the coast. This mild climate is an important economic driver for agricultural production and tourism. Statewide average annual precipitation is about 56 inches, ranging from 50 inches in the north to about 65 inches along the coast. Historical observed extreme temperatures for the state range from −19°F at Corinth (January 30, 1966) to 115°F at Holly Springs (July 29, 1930).

   

Figure 1

Observed and Projected Temperature Change
A line graph shows observed temperature changes (in degrees Fahrenheit) for Mississippi from 1900 to 2018. Gray shading shows the range of modeled historical temperatures for 1900 to 2005. Green and red shading shows projected temperature changes for 2006 to 2100 under the lower RCP4.5 and the higher RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. Refer to the caption for more detail.
Figure 1: Observed and projected changes (compared to the 1901–1960 average) in near-surface air temperature for Mississippi. Observed data are for 1900–2018. Projected changes for 2006–2100 are from global climate models for two possible futures: one in which greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase (higher emissions) and another in which greenhouse gas emissions increase at a slower rate (lower emissions)<sup>1</sup>. Temperatures in Mississippi (orange line) were warmest in the 1920s and 1930s and coolest in the 1960s through the 1980s. Temperatures have remained near or slightly above average since the 1990s. Shading indicates the range of annual temperatures from the set of models. Observed temperatures are generally within the envelope of model simulations of the historical period (gray shading), but on the very low end. If Mississippi were to continue to follow the low end of model projected temperatures, by the end of the 21st century temperatures would average about as warm as the hottest historical year under a lower emissions scenario and about 4°F warmer than the hottest historical year under a higher emissions scenario. Source: CICS-NC and NOAA NCEI.<br><br><sup>1</sup>Technical details on models and projections are provided in an appendix, available online at <a href="https://statesummaries.ncics.org/pdfs/TechInfo.pdf">https://statesummaries.ncics.org/pdfs/TechInfo.pdf</a>.

Temperatures in Mississippi were highest in the 1920s and 1930s, followed by a substantial cooling of almost 2°F throughout the 1960s and 1970s (Figure 1). Temperatures have risen since that cool period by about 2°F, such that the most recent one to two decades have been slightly above the long-term average. Because of the large cooling that occurred in the middle of the 20th century, the southeastern United States is one of the few locations globally that has not experienced overall warming since 1900, while the United States as a whole has warmed by about 1.8°F. The United States as a whole also cooled from the 1930s into the 1960s, but not by nearly as much as Mississippi. Potential hypothesized causes for this difference in warming rates include increased cloud cover and precipitation, increased small particles from coal burning, natural factors related to forest re-growth, decreased heat flux due to irrigation, and multi-decade variability in North Atlantic and tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures. However, the years 2015, 2016, and 2017 were the 10th, 3rd (tied with 1911 and 1923), and 6th (tied with 1998) warmest years on record, respectively, in Mississippi.

A record number of extremely hot days occurred in the early 1950s, with an average of 10 days above 100°F each year. In the 21st century, there has been an average of about 3 such days per year (Figure 2a). The number of days below freezing (maximum temperature at or below 32°F) was well above average in the 1970s and 1980s, but since then has been highly variable (Figure 2b). During the last nine years, both the number of very warm nights (minimum temperature at or above 75°F) (Figure 3) and the daily average summer temperature (Figure 4) have been above average, with a record number of very warm nights (a 5-year average of about 15.5 days per year) in the 2010–2014 period, a little above the previous record set in the 1930–1934 period (about 15 days per year).

Figure 2

   

Figure 2a

2a
Panel A plots the observed number of extremely hot days for Mississippi. Dots show annual averages, and bars show 5-year averages. A horizontal line shows the long-term average for 1900 to 2018 is 3 days per year. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from about 0 to about 23 days.
   

Figure 2b

2b
Panel B plots the observed number of days below freezing for Mississippi. Dots show annual averages, and bars show 5-year averages. A horizontal line shows the long-term average for 1900 to 2018 is 2 days per year. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from less than 1 to about 8 days.
   

Figure 2c

2c
Panel C plots the observed annual precipitation for Mississippi. Dots show annual averages, and bars show 5-year averages. A horizontal line shows the long-term average for 1900 to 2018 is 56 inches per year. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from about 39 to about 75 inches.
   

Figure 2d

2d
Panel D plots the observed summer precipitation for Mississippi. Dots show annual averages, and bars show 5-year averages. A horizontal line shows the long-term average for 1900 to 2018 is 13.3 inches per year. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from about 7 to about 22 inches.
Figure 2: The observed (a) number of extremely hot days (maximum temperature above 100°F), (b) the observed number of days below freezing (annual number of days with daytime maximum temperature below 32°F), (c) the observed annual precipitation, and (d) observed summer precipitation, averaged over 5-year periods (bars; last bar represents 4-year average). Filled circles connected to black line segments show annual values. The horizontal black line shows the long- term average. The values in Figures 2a and 2b are averages from 16 long-term reporting stations. The values in Figures 2c and 2d are from NCEI’s version 2 climate division dataset. The number of extremely hot days has changed minimally over the last 60 years, and the number of days below freezing has varied from well below to slightly above average over the past several decades (1990–2018). Since the 1960s, average annual precipitation has generally been above average, while average annual summer precipitation has generally been near or above average since the late 1980s. Source: CICS-NC and NOAA NCEI.
   
Observed Number of Very Warm Nights
Graph of the observed number of very warm nights for Mississippi. Dots show annual averages, and bars show 5-year averages. A horizontal line shows the long-term average for 1900 to 2018 is 9.9 nights per year. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from about 4 to about 29 nights.
Figure 3: The observed number of very warm nights (annual number of days with minimum temperature at or above 75°F) for 1900–2018, averaged over 5-year periods (bars; last bar represents 4-year average). Filled circles connected to black line segments show annual values. These values are averages from 16 long-term reporting stations. The highest 5-year average occurred during the 2010–2014 period and was slightly above the previous record set in the 1930–1934 period. The dark horizontal line is the long-term average of 9.9 days per year. Source: CICS-NC and NOAA NCEI.
   
Observed Summer Temperature
Graph of the observed average summer temperature for Mississippi. Dots show annual averages, and bars show 5-year averages. A horizontal line shows the long-term average for 1900 to 2018 is 79.8. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from about 77 to about 83 inches.
Figure 4: The observed average summer temperatures for 1900– 2018, averaged over 5-year periods (bars; last bar represents 4-year average). Filled circles connected to black line segments show annual values. These values are averages from NCEI’s version 2 climate division dataset. Summer temperatures have been above average over the last three periods (2005–2018), due in part to 2010 (warmest summer on record) and 2011 (2nd warmest). The dark horizontal line is the long-term average of 79.8°F. Source: CICS-NC and NOAA NCEI.

Average annual precipitation in Mississippi has generally been above average since the 1970s. (Figure 2c). The driest 5-year period was 1895–1899 averaging less than 48 inches per year, while the wettest was 1970–1974 averaging more than 65 inches per year. Average summer precip has been near to above average since the late 1980s with the highest averages on record occurring in the 2000–2004 and 2015–2018 periods (Figure 2d), although a few individual summers, including 2000 and 2006 have been quite dry. The annual number of extreme precipitation events (days with 3 or more inches) has been near the long-term average (1.5 events per station per year) in the last decade (Figure 5). Agricultural droughts during the summer are frequent occurrences in Mississippi. Since the creation of the United States Drought Monitor Map in 2000, Mississippi has only been completely drought- free for approximately 48% of the time from 2000 to 2018 and has had at least 50% drought coverage for approximately 12% of the time during the same period.

   
Observed Number of Extreme Precipitation Events
Graph of the observed number of extreme precipitation events (annual number of days with precipitation of 3 inches or more) for Mississippi. Dots show annual averages, and bars show 5-year averages. A horizontal line shows the long-term average for 1900 to 2018 is 1.5 days per year. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from about 0.2 to 3.3 days.
Figure 5: The observed number of extreme precipitation events (annual number of events with 3 or more inches) for 1900–2018, averaged over 5-year periods (bars; last bar represents 4-year average). Filled circles connected by black line segments show annual values. These values are averages from 20 long-term reporting stations. Generally, the annual number of extreme precipitation events has been near to above the long-term average since the 1990s. The dark horizontal line is the long-term average of 1.5 days per year. Source: CICS-NC and NOAA NCEI.

Mississippi experiences an array of extreme weather events including severe thunderstorms, flooding, extreme heat, tornadoes, winter ice storms, and tropical cyclones (hurricanes and tropical storms). Between 2005 and 2018, a total of 20 FEMA disaster declarations were awarded to the state, 15 of which were for severe storms, tornadoes, and flooding events and the other 5 declarations were awarded in response to hurricanes. The typical flood season is November through June when the Mississippi River has its highest flow, although tropical cyclone flooding on smaller rivers occurs in the late summer and fall. Flooding of historic proportions occurred along the Mississippi River in the spring of 2011, following record snowmelt and unprecedented rainfall upstream of the state. Flood damage was estimated at $800 million in agricultural production for Mississippi alone.

Hurricanes can cause catastrophic damage. Hurricane Camille devastated parts of the state in 1969 as either the strongest (peak wind speed) or the second strongest (minimum pressure) storm (Category 5) to strike the United States in the 20th century. Damage estimates approached $950 million (1969 USD) for Mississippi. In 2005, Hurricane Katrina caused extensive damage along the coast of Mississippi as well as inland, including 238 fatalities and billions of dollars in damages. The storm surge at Pass Christian was 22.6 feet for Camille, and 27.8 feet for Katrina. Along the Mississippi coast, surges of approximately 15 feet have an average return period of 25 years, and surges of 20 feet and greater have an average return period of 50 to 100 years (Figure 6).

 
Pass Christian Coastal Surge Return Periods
Bar graph of storm surge heights and return periods for Mississippi. Storm surge heights are given for 10-year, 25-year, 50-year, and 100-year return periods. These heights are 8.63, 14.72, 19.32, and 23.93 feet, respectively.
Figure 6: Storm surge at Pass Christian as a function of return period. For example, the storm surge of 27.8 feet recorded in Hurricane Katrina is expected to occur less than once every 100 years. Source: NOAA Southern Regional Climate Center.

Tornadoes are another important weather hazard for Mississippi. Over the past 30 years (1985–2014), Mississippi has averaged 43 tornadoes annually, with 4 fatalities per year. The state ranks 12th nationally for the total number of reported tornadoes, but ranks as 1st in the nation in tornado deaths per million people. Since 2005, the state has experienced its three highest annual number of tornadoes: in 2005 (100 tornadoes), 2008 (110 tornadoes), and 2011 (97 tornadoes). Tornadoes occur year-round, but there is a distinct tornado season with occurrences peaking in April and a second, smaller peak in November.

Under a higher emissions pathway, historically unprecedented warming is projected by the end of the 21st century (Figure 1). Even under a pathway of lower greenhouse gas emissions, average annual temperatures are projected to most likely exceed historical record levels by the middle of the 21st century. However, there is a large range of temperature increases under both pathways, and under the lower pathway, a few projections are only slightly warmer than historical records (Figure 1). Since the 1970s, Mississippi temperatures have generally been within the range, but on the low end, of model-simulated temperatures. Warming is projected despite the lack of a long-term trend in Mississippi temperatures because the increased warming influence of greenhouse gases will become greater than the natural variations that have dominated Mississippi’s temperature climate.

Projected changes in summer precipitation for Mississippi are uncertain through mid-century (Figure 7). This is also the case for the other three seasons. However, future naturally-occurring droughts may be more intense because higher temperatures will increase the rate of loss of soil moisture during dry spells. During such droughts, decreased water availability will likely have important implications for the region and state’s agricultural economy.

Since 1900, global average sea level has risen by about 7–8 inches. Sea level rise along the Mississippi coast may be even higher; the closest tide gauge with long- term data (Alabama’s Dauphin Island) reports a rise of more than 11 inches over the past century. Sea level rise has caused an increase in tidal floods associated with

nuisance-level impacts. Nuisance floods are events in which water levels exceed the local threshold (set by NOAA’s National Weather Service) for minor impacts. These events can damage infrastructure, cause road closures, and overwhelm storm drains. Nuisance flooding has increased in all U.S. coastal areas, with more rapid increases along the East and Gulf Coasts. Nuisance flooding events in Mississippi are likely to occur more frequently as global and local sea levels continue to rise.

Sea level is projected to rise 1 to 8 feet by 2100, with a likely range of 1 to 4 feet, as a result of both past and future emissions from human activities (Figure 8). Sea level rise has the potential to significantly damage critical transportation assets and negatively impact coastal resort communities along the Gulf Coast of Mississippi. Erosion of the barrier islands may further increase the potential impacts of sea level rise as these islands can shield the densely populated coastal areas, like Gulfport and Biloxi, from storm surge. The rate of erosion is increasing; for example, Ship Island has lost about 40% of its total area since 1970.

   
Projected Change in Summer Precipitation
Map of the contiguous United States showing the projected change in summer precipitation for the middle of the 21st century under a higher emissions pathway. Summer precipitation is projected to increase along the east coast, particularly in the Carolinas, and decrease across most of the rest of the country. Hatching shows that projected changes are statistically significant only in a few areas, mostly in the central United States. The greatest decreases are expected in the far western states. Refer to the caption for more detail.
Figure 7: Projected change in summer precipitation (%) for the middle of the 21st century relative to the late 20th century under a higher emissions pathway. Hatching represents areas where the majority of climate models indicate a statistically significant change. While the map indicates slight decreases for Mississippi, these changes are minimal compared to natural variations and are not statistically significant. This is part of a large area of the Southeast where projected summer precipitation is uncertain. Source: CICS- NC, NOAA NCEI, and NEMAC.
   
Observed and Projected Global Sea Level
Line graph of observed and projected changes in global mean sea level from 1800 to 2010. The historical line shows observed sea level from 1800 to 2015 and indicates an increase in sea level of about 7 to 8 inches since 1900. Extending from the historical line are six lines of increasing steepness that represent projected sea level rise scenarios. Two box and whisker plots to the right of the x-axis show the very likely range of sea level rise under lower and higher emissions scenarios. Refer to the caption for more detail.
Figure 8: Global mean sea level (GMSL) change from 1800 to 2100. Projections include the six U.S. Interagency Sea Level Rise Task Force GMSL scenarios (navy blue, royal blue, cyan, green, orange, and red curves) relative to historical geological, tide gauge and satellite altimeter GMSL reconstructions from 1800–2015 (black and magenta lines) and the very likely ranges in 2100 under both lower and higher emissions futures (teal and dark red boxes). Global sea level rise projections range from 1 to 8 feet by 2100, with a likely range of 1 to 4 feet. Source: Adapted from Sweet et al. 2017.
Lead Authors:
Jennifer Runkle, Kenneth E. Kunkel
Contributing Authors:
Sarah Champion, Rebekah Frankson, and Brooke C. Stewart
Recommended Citation:
Runkle, J., K. Kunkel, S. Champion, R. Frankson, and B. Stewart, 2017: Mississippi State Climate Summary. NOAA Technical Report NESDIS 149-MS, March 2019 Revision, 4 pp.

RESOURCES

  1. Climate Central, n.d.: Facts and findings: Sea level rise and storm surge threats for Mississippi. Retrieved August 13, 2019. [URL]
  2. FEMA, n.d.: Disaster declarations for Mississippi. Federal Emergency Management Agency. Retrieved August 13, 2019. [URL]
  3. Hayhoe, K., D.J. Wuebbles, D.R. Easterling, D.W. Fahey, S. Doherty, J. Kossin, W. Sweet, R. Vose, and M. Wehner, 2018: Our changing climate. Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II [Reidmiller, D.R., C.W. Avery, D.R. Easterling, K.E. Kunkel, K.L.M. Lewis, T.K. Maycock, and B.C. Stewart (eds.)]. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA, 72–144. [URL]
  4. Hurricanes: Science and Society, n.d.: 1969—Hurricane Camille. Retrieved August 13, 2019. [URL] ­
  5. Knabb, R.D., J.R. Rhome, and D.P. Brown, 2005: Tropical cyclone report: Hurricane Katrina 23–30 August 2005. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Hurricane Center, 43 pp. [URL]
  6. Kunkel, K.E., L.E. Stevens, S.E. Stevens, L. Sun, E. Janssen, D. Wuebbles, C.E. Konrad II, C.M. Fuhrman, B.D. Keim, M.C. Kruk, A. Billet, H. Needham, M. Schafer, and J.G. Dobson, 2013: Regional climate trends and scenarios for the U.S. National Climate Assessment. Part 2. Climate of the Southeast U.S. NOAA Technical Report NESDIS 142-2, 98 pp.  [URL]
  7. Masters, J., n.d.: U.S. storm surge records (Hurricanes Camille and Katrina). Weather Underground. Retrieved August 13, 2019. [URL]
  8. Melillo, Jerry M., T.C. Richmond, and G.W. Yohe, eds., 2014: Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment. U.S. Global Change Research Program, 841 pp. [URL]
  9. NDMC, n.d.: United Stated Drought Monitor: Tabular data archive: Percent area in U.S. Drought Monitor categories. National Drought Mitigation Center. Retrieved August 13, 2019. [URL]
  10. Needham, H.F. and B.D. Keim, 2012: A storm surge database for the U.S. Gulf Coast. International Journal of Climatology, 32, 2108–2123. doi: 10.1002/joc.2425.
  11. NOAA, n.d.: Climate at a glance: Statewide time series. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Centers for Environmental Information. Retrieved August 13, 2019. [URL]
  12. NOAA, n.d.: Climate of Mississippi. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Climatic Data Center. Retrieved August 13, 2019. [URL]
  13. NOAA, n.d.: Continental United States hurricane impacts/landfalls 1851–2018. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory. Retrieved August 13, 2019. [URL]
  14. NOAA, n.d.: NWS Jackson, MS, August 2005 Hurricane Katrina outbreak: A look back at Hurricane Katrina. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Weather Service. Retrieved August 13, 2019. [URL]
  15. NOAA, n.d.: State Climate Extremes Committee (SCEC): Records. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Centers for Environmental Information. Retrieved August 13, 2019. [URL]
  16. NOAA, n.d.: State of the climate: Tornadoes—Annual 2014. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Centers for Environmental Information. Retrieved August 13, 2019. [URL]
  17. NOAA, n.d.: Storm Prediction Center WCM page. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Weather Service. Retrieved August 13, 2019. [URL]
  18. Parris, A., P. Bromirski, V. Burkett, D. Cayan, M. Culver, J. Hall, R. Horton, K. Knuuti, R. Moss, J. Obeysekera, A. Sallenger, and J. Weiss, 2012: Global sea level rise scenarios for the United States National Climate Assessment. NOAA Technical Report OAR CPO-1, 29 pp. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring, MD. [URL]
  19. SCIPP, n.d.: Climate change in Mississippi. Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program. Retrieved August 13, 2019. [URL]
  20. Sherman-Morris, K. and C.L. Wax, 2012: Mississippi Weather and Climate, University Press of Mississippi, 224 pp. [URL]
  21. Simpson, R.H. and A.L. Sugg, 1970: The Atlantic hurricane season of 1969. Monthly Weather Review, 98, 293S. doi: 10.1175/1520-0493-98.4.293
  22. Strauss, B., C. Tebaldi, S. Kulp, S. Cutter, C. Emrich, D. Rizza, and D. Yawitz, 2015: Mississippi and the Surging sea: A vulnerability assessment with projections for sea level rise and coastal flood risk. Climate Central Research Report, 30 pp. [URL]
  23. USACE, 1970: Report on Hurricane Camille, 14–22 August 1969. U.S. Army Engineer District, Mobile Corps of Engineers, Mobile, Alabama, 130 pp. [URL]
  24. Vose, R.S., D.R. Easterling, K.E. Kunkel, A.N. LeGrande, and M.F. Wehner, 2017: Temperature changes in the United States. Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I [Wuebbles, D.J., D.W. Fahey, K.A. Hibbard, D.J. Dokken, B.C. Stewart, and T.K. Maycock (eds.)]. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA, 267–301. [URL]

NCICS

Contact NOAA’s Technical Support Unit