Mississippi is located between the Gulf of America (formerly Gulf of Mexico) and the southern end of the vast, relatively flat plains of central North America. The state is therefore exposed to diverse air masses, including the warm, moist air from the gulf and drier continental air masses, which are cold in the winter and warm in the summer. Clockwise circulation of air around a semipermanent high-pressure system in the North Atlantic (the Bermuda High) causes a persistent southerly flow of air off the gulf during the warmer half of the year. Thus, Mississippi’s climate is characterized by relatively mild winters, hot and humid summers, and year-round precipitation. In addition to serving as a predominant source of moisture, the warm waters of the gulf help moderate temperatures along Mississippi’s coast. This mild climate is an important economic driver for agricultural production and tourism. Summer high temperatures are generally in the high 80s (°F) or low 90s, and winter lows range from close to freezing in the north to more than 45°F in the southeast (1991–2020 averages). Extreme temperatures range from a record low of −19°F at Corinth (January 30, 1966) to a record high of 115°F at Holly Springs (July 29, 1930). Annual average precipitation ranges from about 50 inches in the north to more than 70 inches along the Gulf Coast.
Time series of observed and projected temperature change (in degrees Fahrenheit) for Mississippi from 1900 to 2100 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from negative 4 to positive 16 degrees. Observed annual temperatures from 1900 to 2024 show variability and range from negative 2.5 to positive 2.8 degrees. By the end of the century, projected increases in temperature range from 1.5 to 6.7 degrees under the lower emissions pathway, from 3.7 to 9.2 degrees under the intermediate pathway, and from 7.3 to 14.7 degrees under the higher pathway.
Annual average temperatures in Mississippi have risen rapidly since the 1970s, with the last decade (2015–2024) being the warmest on record (Figure 1). However, Mississippi and neighboring states in the southeastern US are among the few locations globally that have experienced relatively little overall warming since 1900. Mississippi has seen a series of shifting trends—warming from the early 20th century into the 1930s, then substantial cooling until the 1970s, followed by the recent rapid warming—resulting in a net increase since 1900 of a little less than 0.5°F, compared to 2.2°F for the contiguous US as a whole. Hypothesized causes for this difference in warming rates in parts of the Southeast US include increased cloud cover and precipitation, increased small particles from coal burning, natural factors related to forest regrowth, decreased heat flux due to irrigation, and multidecadal variability in North Atlantic and tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures.
Since the 2005–2009 period, summer temperatures have generally been above average, with the latest 5-year average (2020–2024) approximating the record-high of the 1950–1954 period (Figure 2). The number of extremely hot days was generally near or above average in the first half of the 20th century, but since the late 1950s the number of these days has mostly been below average (Figure 3a). Since the early 2000s, 5-year averages for very warm nights have been rising steadily, with the 2020–2024 average at more than double the long-term average (Figure 3b). The number of freezing days was mostly above average between the 1960s and late 1980s but has generally been near or below average since the 1990s (Figure 4). While the recent trend is toward fewer extremely cold events, a historic cold wave affected the state from February 11–20, 2021. In the northwest part of the state, temperatures remained below freezing for eight consecutive days and fell to around 0°F. Heavy snow (more than 10 inches in some locations) and severe icing caused widespread damage. Drinking water supplies in the state capital of Jackson were not fully restored for weeks.
Graph of the observed summer average temperature for Mississippi from 1895 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from 76 to 84 degrees Fahrenheit. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 77.1 to 82.9 degrees. Five-year values also show variability and are mostly near or above the long-term average of 79.9 degrees between 1895 and 1954 and all near or below average between 1955 and 2004. Since 2005, all 5-year values are above average. The 1965 to 1969 and 1970 to 1974 periods have the lowest 5-year values at 78.8 and 78.6 degrees, respectively, and the 1950 to 1954 and 2020 to 2024 periods have the highest at 81.1 and 81.0 degrees, respectively.
Two graphs of the observed annual number of (a) extremely hot days and (b) very warm nights for Mississippi from 1900 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Panel A: Extremely Hot DaysY-axis values range from 0 to 28 days. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0 to 25.6 days. Five-year values also show variability and are mostly above the long-term average of 3.2 days between 1900 and 1954 but are all near or below average since 1955 except for the 2005 to 2009 period. The 1970 to 1974 period has the lowest 5-year value at 0.3 days, and the 1950 to 1954 period has the highest at 11.8 days.
Panel B: Very Warm NightsY-axis values range from 0 to 28 nights. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 2.0 to 25.8 nights. Five-year values also show variability and are all below the long-term average of 8.9 nights between 1905 and 1924; the 1900 to 1904 period is above average. Five-year values are all above average between 1925 and 1939 but are mostly below average between 1940 and 1994. Since 1995, 5-year values are all near or above average except for the 2000 to 2004 period. The 1960 to 1964 and 1970 to 1974 periods have the lowest 5-year values at 5.4 nights each, and the 2020 to 2024 period has the highest at 18.6 nights.
Graph of the observed annual number of freezing days for Mississippi from 1900 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from 0 to 10 days. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0 to 8.8 days. Five-year values also show variability and are mostly below the long-term average of 2.0 days between 1900 and 1959 but are all above average between 1960 and 1989 except for the 1965 to 1969 period. Since 1990, 5-year values are mostly near or below average. The 2005 to 2009 period has the lowest 5-year value at 0.4 days, and the 1985 to 1989 period has the highest at 4.5 days.
Statewide total annual precipitation is highly variable from year to year, ranging from a low of 39.4 inches in 1954 to a high of 75.6 inches in 1979 (Figure 5a). Annual precipitation has generally been near or above the long-term (1895–2024) average since the 1970s. Total summer precipitation shows no long-term trend, although the most recent decade (2015–2024) was the wettest (Figure 5b). The number of 3-inch extreme precipitation events has generally been near or above average since the 1970s (Figure 6). Despite the lack of a distinct dry season, Mississippi experiences occasional episodes of drought. Several parts of the state are particularly susceptible to agricultural droughts, in which decreases in soil moisture (caused by a combined shortage of precipitation and excess evapotranspiration) can lead to negative impacts on crop production.
Two graphs of the observed total (a) annual and (b) summer precipitation for Mississippi from 1895 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Panel A: Total Annual PrecipitationY-axis values range from 36 to 80 inches. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 39.4 to 75.6 inches. Five-year values also show variability and are all near or below the long-term average of 55.9 inches between 1895 and 1969 except for the1905 to 1909 and 1945 to 1949 periods. Since 1970, 5-year values are mostly above average. The 1895 to 1899 period has the lowest 5-year value at 48.3 inches, and the 1945 to 1949 and 1970 to 1974 periods have the highest at 62.4 and 62.3 inches, respectively.
Panel B: Total Summer PrecipitationY-axis values range from 4 to 28 inches. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 6.6 to 24.4 inches. Five-year values also show variability and are all near or above the long-term average of 13.4 inches between 1895 and 1919 but are mostly near or below average between 1920 and 1984. Since 1985, 5-year values are mostly near or above average. The 1950 to 1954 period has the lowest 5-year value at 10.6 inches, and the 2020 to 2024 period has the highest at 16.1 inches.
Graph of the observed annual number of 3-inch extreme precipitation events for Mississippi from 1900 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from 0 to 4 events. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0.2 to 3.5 events. Five-year values also show variability and are all near or below the long-term average of 1.4 events between 1900 and 1969 except for the 1945 to 1949 period, but they are all above average since 1970 except for the 1985 to 1989 and 1995 to 1999 periods. The 1935 to 1939 period has the lowest 5-year value at 0.9 events, and the 1980 to 1984 period has the highest at 2.2 events.
Extreme weather events in Mississippi include severe thunderstorms, flooding, extreme heat, tornadoes, winter storms, and tropical cyclones (hurricanes and tropical storms). The typical Mississippi River flood season is February through June, when flow tends to be at its peak. Inland flooding on smaller rivers related to tropical cyclone rainfall can occur in the late summer and fall. Flooding of historic proportions occurred along the Mississippi River in spring 2011, following record snowmelt and unprecedented rainfall upstream of the state. Agricultural production damages exceeded $500 million in Mississippi alone.
Mississippi is at risk for catastrophic damage from hurricanes, including coastal flooding caused by storm surges. In 1969, Hurricane Camille devastated parts of the state as the strongest Category 5 storm (in terms of peak wind speed) and the second-strongest storm (in terms of minimum pressure) to strike the United States in the 20th century. Mississippi alone incurred damages of more than $900 million. In 2005, Hurricane Katrina caused extensive damage along the Mississippi coast and inland, resulting in 238 fatalities and billions of dollars in damages. The storm surge at Pass Christian was 22.6 feet for Camille and 27.8 feet for Katrina. The number of landfalling Atlantic hurricanes is not expected to rise. However, rainfall rates from such storms, as well as the proportion of time they spend as major hurricanes, are projected to increase. The risk of storm surge flooding along the Mississippi coast is expected to increase in the future due to a combination of sea level rise, land subsidence (sinking), the loss of coastal wetlands, and strengthening hurricanes.
Tornadoes are another important weather hazard for Mississippi. Between 1995 and 2024, Mississippi averaged 57 tornadoes annually, with an average of 5 fatalities per year. The deadliest tornado to occur in Mississippi was the Natchez tornado of May 7, 1840. The mile-wide tornado killed more than 300 people and is the second-deadliest single tornado in US history. The most active year for tornadoes in Mississippi was 2019 with 115 tornadoes. Tornadoes occur year-round, but there is a distinct tornado season in spring, with a high peak of events in April and a second, smaller peak in November.
Under the intermediate and higher emissions pathways, historically unprecedented warming is projected during this century (Figure 1). Even under the lower emissions pathway, most projections show annual average temperatures exceeding historical levels by the middle of the century. However, projections for all three pathways show a large range of potential temperature increases, and some projections for the lower pathway are comparable to recent observed values. Heat wave intensity is projected to increase, while the intensity of cold waves is projected to decrease.
Under the intermediate emissions pathway, projections indicate increases in total annual precipitation across Mississippi by midcentury; however, the projected changes are not statistically significant (Figure 7). There is similar uncertainty in the projections for seasonal precipitation, although models generally indicate statewide increases in spring and winter and increases and decreases in summer and fall. The frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events are projected to increase, potentially increasing the frequency and intensity of floods.
Map of the contiguous United States showing the projected changes in total annual precipitation by the middle of this century as described in the caption. The state of Mississippi is outlined in black.
Legend values range from less than negative 10 to greater than positive 15 percent. Note: unless otherwise specified, projected values are not statistically significant.
MississippiThe entire state of Mississippi is projected to see increases in total annual precipitation of up to 5 percent.
Contiguous USProjected increases in total annual precipitation are as follows: up to 5 percent for most of the Southeast, as well as the central Midwest, central Great Plains, central West, and Northwest; and 5 to 10 percent for all of the Northeast, as well as portions of the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, northern Midwest, northern Great Plains, and Pacific Northwest, with statistically significant increases in the 5 to 10 percent range for the Northeast, northeastern Midwest, and portions of the northern Great Plains and Pacific Northwest.
Projected decreases of up to 5 percent are expected across most of Texas, New Mexico, and Arizona, as well as southern California.
Droughts, a natural part of Mississippi’s climate, are projected to increase in intensity due to higher temperatures and the associated increase in evaporation rates and soil moisture loss.
Coastal Mississippi is at considerable risk from sea level rise. On average, the state experienced about 7 inches of sea level rise between 1978 and 2020—compared to 6 inches for the contiguous US as a whole— and projections under the Intermediate sea level scenario show additional increases of about 12 inches by 2050 and 1.8 feet by 2070 (Figure 8). Across the five scenarios shown in Figure 8, the projected increases from 2020 to 2070 range from about 1 to 3.5 feet. Rising sea levels have the potential to significantly damage critical transportation assets and negatively impact coastal resort communities along Mississippi’s coast. Increasing erosion of the barrier islands may exacerbate these potential impacts, as the islands can shield the densely populated coastal areas, such as Gulfport and Biloxi, from storm surge. Horn Island, for example, is losing sediment faster than it can be replenished.
Sea level rise has caused an increase in high-tide floods associated with nuisance-level impacts, which are occurring more frequently, even on sunny days. High-tide flooding occurs when one or more factors—sea level rise, winds, changes in ocean currents, full or new moons—push water levels above the normal high-tide mark. These events can damage infrastructure, cause road closures, and overwhelm storm drains. High-tide flooding has increased in all US coastal areas, with more rapid increases along the East and Gulf Coasts, and is likely to occur more frequently in Mississippi as global and local sea levels continue to rise.
Two time series of observed and projected relative sea level change for (a) the contiguous US and (b) Mississippi from (a) 1970 to 2070 and (b) 1978 to 2070 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from negative 1 to positive 5 feet for both graphs. Legends in both graphs denote sources of historical data and scenarios for projections. Line colors for historical data are black for tide gauge data and orange for satellite data. Line and shading colors for projections based on five scenarios are as follows: light blue, Low; medium blue, Intermediate-Low; dark blue, Intermediate; yellow, Intermediate-High; and dark orange, High.
Panel A: Contiguous USTide gauge and satellite data generally show increases but with year-to-year variability. Projected data show increases under all scenarios. Tide gauge values range from a minimum of negative 0.3 feet in 1976 to a maximum of positive 0.4 feet in 2023. Satellite values range from a minimum of 0.0 feet in 1994 to a maximum of 0.4 feet in 2023. Projected sea level median values (lines) for the Low scenario range from 0.3 feet in 2020 to 1.1 feet in 2070, compared to 0.4 feet in 2020 to 3.1 feet in 2070 for the High scenario. Likely ranges (shading) become wider over the period shown. The ranges of likely values in 2070 for each of the five scenarios are as follows: Low scenario, from 0.9 to 1.4 feet; Intermediate-Low, 1.2 to 1.7 feet; Intermediate, 1.5 to 2.2 feet; Intermediate-High, 1.8 to 3.1 feet; and High, 2.4 to 3.8 feet.
Panel B: MississippiThe tide gauge line shows a gradual increase similar to that in the contiguous US graph, while the satellite line shows a lower increase. All future scenario lines show increases higher than those in the contiguous US graph. Tide gauge values range from a minimum of negative 0.4 feet in 1981 to a maximum of positive 0.5 feet in 2019. Satellite values range from a minimum of negative 0.2 feet in 2006 to a maximum of positive 0.4 feet in 2020. Projected sea level median values (lines) for the Low scenario range from 0.4 feet in 2020 to 1.6 feet in 2070, compared to 0.5 feet in 2020 to 3.7 feet in 2070 for the High scenario. Likely ranges (shading) become wider over the period shown. The ranges of likely values in 2070 for each of the five scenarios are as follows: Low scenario, from 1.4 to 1.9 feet; Intermediate-Low, 1.6 to 2.2 feet; Intermediate, 2.0 to 2.7 feet; Intermediate-High, 2.4 to 3.6 feet; and High, 2.9 to 4.3 feet.
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