North Carolina has a humid climate with very warm summers and moderately cold winters. Its climate exhibits substantial regional variation due to its diverse geographic features, including the Appalachian Mountains in the west, the Piedmont plateau in the central region, and the Coastal Plain to the east. Elevations range from sea level along the Atlantic coast to more than 6,000 feet in the western mountains (the largest elevation range of any state east of the Mississippi River). Annual average temperatures vary more than 20°F from the highest elevations in the west to the lowest points along the southeastern coast (1991–2020 averages). The majority of North Carolina experiences hot and humid summers, with cooler temperatures in western parts of the state. Summer high temperatures typically range from less than 70°F in the Appalachians to the high 80s (°F) in central and coastal regions. Winter temperatures are moderated somewhat by the Appalachian Mountains, which partially block cold air coming from the Midwest. The coldest temperatures occur at high elevations, where low temperatures are typically less than 20°F. Coastal areas experience much milder winters, with minimum temperatures of more than 40°F in the Outer Banks. Total annual precipitation typically ranges from 40 to 60 inches across most of the state, with the southern slopes of the Blue Ridge Mountains in southwestern North Carolina receiving more than 75 inches on average—one of the wettest regions in the southeastern United States. The majority of the state averages less than 5 inches of snowfall annually, although the higher elevations of the Appalachian Mountains can receive up to 80 inches.
Time series of observed and projected temperature change (in degrees Fahrenheit) for North Carolina from 1900 to 2100 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from negative 4 to positive 16 degrees. Observed annual temperatures from 1900 to 2024 show variability and range from negative 2.3 to positive 2.7 degrees. By the end of the century, projected increases in temperature range from 1.9 to 6.9 degrees under the lower emissions pathway, from 3.7 to 8.9 degrees under the intermediate pathway, and from 7.2 to 14.4 degrees under the higher pathway.
Annual average temperatures in North Carolina have increased almost 1.5°F since the beginning of the 20th century (Figure 1). Temperatures were high during the first half of the 20th century, followed by a cool period in the 1960s and 1970s. The state has warmed rapidly since then, with temperatures increasing about 2.5°F from 1970 to 2024 and 2015–2024 being the warmest decade on record. The contiguous United States as a whole warmed by about 2.2°F since 1900, although it also cooled from the 1930s into the 1960s but not by nearly as much as North Carolina. Hypothesized causes for this difference in warming rates in parts of the Southeast US include increased cloud cover and precipitation, increased small particles from coal burning, natural factors related to forest regrowth, decreased heat flux due to irrigation, and multidecadal variability in North Atlantic and tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures. Winter average temperatures have increased since the 1960s and have generally been above average since the 1990s, with the 5-year averages for the 2015–2019 and 2020–2024 periods exceeding those of the early 1930s and early 1950s (Figure 2a). Summer average temperatures have also been trending upward since the 1960s, and the highest 5-year averages were recorded between 2005 and 2024 (Figure 2b). Although North Carolina has not experienced an increase in the frequency of very hot days (Figure 3a), the number of very warm nights has generally been above average since the 2005–2009 period (Figure 3b).
Two graphs of the observed (a) winter and (b) summer average temperatures for North Carolina from 1895–96 to 2023–24 and 1895 to 2024, respectively, as described in the caption.
Panel A: Winter Average Temperature
Y-axis values range from 34 to 50 degrees Fahrenheit. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 35.5 to 49.2 degrees. Five-year values also show variability and are all below the long-term average of 41.5 degrees between 1895 and 1919, all near or above average between 1920 and 1954 except for the 1940 to 1944 period, and all below average between 1955 and 1989 except for the 1970 to 1974 period. Since 1990, all 5-year values are near or above average. The 1900 to 1904 period has the lowest 5-year value at 38.5 degrees, and the 2015 to 2019 and 2020 to 2024 periods have the highest at 44.1 and 45.0 degrees, respectively.
Panel B: Summer Average Temperature
Y-axis values range from 72 to 80 degrees Fahrenheit. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 72.7 to 78.9 degrees. Five-year values also show variability and are above the long-term average of 75.6 degrees between 1895 and 1904, all below average between 1905 and 1929, all above average between 1930 and 1954 except for the 1945 to 1949 period, and all below average between 1955 and 1984. All 5-year values since 1985 are near or above average. The 1960 to 1964, 1965 to 1969, and 1970 to 1974 periods have the lowest 5-year values at about 74.4 degrees each, and the 2015 to 2019 period has the highest at 77.1 degrees.
Two graphs of the observed annual number of (a) very hot days and (b) very warm nights for North Carolina from 1900 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Panel A: Very Hot Days
Y-axis values range from 0 to 40 days. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0.1 to 34.3 days. Five-year values also show variability and are mostly above the long-term average of 10.5 days between 1900 and 1954 but are all below average since 1955 except for the 1980 to 1984 and 1985 to 1989 periods. The 1970 to 1974 period has the lowest 5-year value at 2.8 days, and the 1930 to 1934 period has the highest at 22.5 days.
Panel B: Very Warm Nights
Y-axis values range from 0 to 12 nights. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0.2 to 10.7 nights. Five-year values also show variability and are above the long-term average of 2.6 nights for the 1900 to 1904 period, mostly below average between 1900 and 2004, and all above average since 2005. The 1970 to 1974 period has the lowest 5-year value at 0.9 nights, and the 2010 to 2014 period has the highest at 5.5 nights.
Statewide total annual precipitation has ranged from a low of 34.8 inches in 2007 to a high of 68.4 inches in 2018 (Figure 4). There is no overall trend in annual precipitation, but the 2015–2019 and 2020–2024 periods were above average. Precipitation totals are generally highest in the summer, driven by thunderstorms and tropical systems, while fall is the driest season. The number of 3-inch extreme precipitation events shows a slight upward trend since the 2005–2009 period (Figure 5).
Graph of the observed total annual precipitation for North Carolina from 1895 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from 32 to 72 inches. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 34.8 to 68.3 inches. Five-year values also show variability and are mostly near or below the long-term average of 49.6 inches across the entire period. Exceptions include the 1905 to 1909 and the 2015 to 2019 periods, which have the highest 5-year values at 53.6 and 55.3 inches. The 1930 to 1934 and 1950 to 1954 periods have the lowest 5-year values at 44.4 and 44.5 inches, respectively.
Graph of the observed annual number of 3-inch extreme precipitation events for North Carolina from 1900 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from 0.0 to 2.5 events. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0.1 to 2.1 events. Five-year values also show variability and are mostly near or below the long-term average of 0.6 events between 1900 and 1989 but are all near or above average since 1990 except for the 2005 to 2009 period. The 1920 to 1924 period has the lowest 5-year value at 0.4 events, and the 2020 to 2024 period has the highest at 1.1 events.
North Carolina experienced one of its worst droughts in 2007–2008. At the peak of the drought in December 2007, the majority of the state was in exceptional drought (the US Drought Monitor's highest level of intensity), with the remainder of the state in severe or extreme drought. Reservoirs were drying up, more than 5 million water customers faced restrictions, and all outdoor use of water was banned for homes and businesses. By the end of 2007, the agriculture industry had suffered an estimated $573 million in damages. North Carolina is also prone to flash drought (the rapid onset or intensification of drought). The state experienced one of its fastest-emerging droughts in 2024: on June 4 only small portions of North Carolina were in drought, but less than a month later 99.98% of the state was abnormally dry or in moderate to severe drought.
North Carolina experiences several different types of extreme weather, including severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, tropical cyclones, heat waves, and winter storms. Snow and ice storms have the potential to cause significant damage. Some of these storms are the result of cold-air damming, which occurs when cold air becomes trapped against the Appalachian Mountains by a layer of less dense warm air above it. A strong cold-air damming event took place during February 12–13, 2014, causing a severe winter storm. Large portions of the state received between 5 and 10 inches of snow, and some areas received as much as a half inch of freezing rain.
North Carolina's location along the Atlantic coast makes the state vulnerable to tropical storms and hurricanes. Between 1900 and 2024, North Carolina was impacted by 203 tropical cyclones, including 66 hurricanes. The number of tropical cyclones shows no clear long-term trend; however, the 5-year periods with the highest activity have all occurred since the 1985–1989 period (Figure 6).
Graph of the total number of tropical cyclone events for North Carolina from 1900 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from 0 to 18 events. Five-year totals show variability across the period of record and range from 3 events for the 1920 to 1924, 1925 to 1929, and 1935 to 1939 periods to 17 events for the 2020 to 2024 period. Additional 5-year periods with high totals are 2015 to 2019 with 12 events, 1985 to 1989 with 13 events, and 2000 to 2004 with 14 events.
In addition to damaging winds and coastal flooding from storm surges, extreme precipitation and inland flooding from tropical cyclones are great hazards to the entire state. In 1999, Hurricane Floyd dropped 15 to 20 inches of rain in the eastern part of the state, which was still recovering from flooding caused by Hurricane Dennis several weeks earlier. In September 2004, the remnants of Hurricane Frances dropped 6 to 10 inches of rain across much of western North Carolina over a three-day period. Less than two weeks later, the remnants of Hurricane Ivan struck the same area, producing 10 inches of rain and causing hundreds of landslides. In October 2016, Hurricane Matthew dumped torrential rain that caused major flooding in eastern North Carolina, with many locations receiving more than 10 inches and a few locations more than 18 inches. In September 2018, record-breaking rainfall occurred as Hurricane Florence dropped 20 to 36 inches in eastern North Carolina, causing widespread destruction and losses exceeding $20 billion, more than the combined losses from Floyd and Matthew. In August 2021, Tropical Storm Fred's rainfall totals exceeded 12 inches in the western North Carolina mountains, causing flooding and landslides that led to six deaths in Haywood County. In late September 2024, Hurricane Helene caused the most devastating natural disaster in western North Carolina's history. After making landfall in the Big Bend region of Florida, the storm moved rapidly north, hitting the mountains with sustained winds of 40–70 mph (and gusts as high as 100 mph). Precipitation from the storm, combined with a predecessor frontal rain event enhanced by the tropical moisture, resulted in widespread 4-day rainfall totals of more than 14 inches (with some stations hitting 30 inches; Figure 7), catastrophic flash flooding in multiple river valleys, and more than 2,000 documented landslides. The storm damaged or destroyed more than 125,000 homes in the region, and some mountain slopes suffered tree loss of 80% or more. Helene was responsible for at least 250 fatalities in the United States—including more than 100 in North Carolina—making it the deadliest hurricane in the contiguous US since Katrina in 2005. The number of landfalling Atlantic hurricanes is not expected to rise. However, rainfall rates from hurricanes, as well as the proportion of time they spend as major storms, are projected to increase.
County-level map showing 4-day precipitation totals from September 24 through 29, 2024, over southwestern Virginia, southeastern Kentucky, eastern Tennessee, western North Carolina, northeastern Georgia, and northwestern South Carolina.
A color-coded legend ranges from 0.5 inches or less (gray) to 14.0 inches or more (black). The highest totals, ranging from 8 to more than 14 inches, fell over a long and wide swath stretching from northwestern South Carolina across the mountainous region of western North Carolina. Areas in the surrounding regions saw totals mostly ranging from 2 to 8 inches. The highest totals in western North Carolina fell in the following counties: Yancey, Transylvania, Mitchell, Avery, Henderson, McDowell, Watauga, Buncombe, Alleghany, Ashe, and Jackson.
In addition to producing damaging winds and flooding, hurricanes can generate tornadoes. In August 2020, Tropical Storm Isaias spun off an EF3 tornado that killed two people in Bertie County, and Helene spawned nine tornadoes in the state. North Carolina's largest tornado outbreak, however, resulted from a severe thunderstorm system that occurred on April 16, 2011, with 30 confirmed tornadoes and 24 deaths. More recently, in February 2021, an EF3 tornado killed three in Brunswick County.
Wildfires are also a concern in North Carolina, with two distinct fire seasons each year in the spring and fall. In 2016, warm and dry conditions in the spring contributed to three large fires in April, while drought conditions and warm temperatures beginning in August set the stage for multiple wildfires in western North Carolina in late fall and early winter, as well as additional fires in March of 2017. The forest damage from Hurricane Helene is expected to heighten fire risks in the mountains for years to come, as downed trees increase fuel loads and as the combination of downed trees, landslides, and flood damage hinder efforts to access and contain fires that do occur.
Under the intermediate and higher emissions pathways, historically unprecedented warming is projected during this century (Figure 1). Even under the lower emissions pathway, most projections show annual average temperatures exceeding historical levels by the middle of the century. However, projections for all three pathways show a large range of potential temperature increases, and some projections for the lower pathway are comparable to recent observed values. Future heat waves are expected to be more intense, but cold wave intensity is projected to decrease.
Under the intermediate emissions pathway, projections indicate increases in total annual precipitation across North Carolina by midcentury; however, the projected changes are not statistically significant (Figure 8). There is similar uncertainty in projections for seasonal precipitation, although models generally indicate statewide increases in all seasons. The number and intensity of extreme precipitation events are projected to increase.
Map of the contiguous United States showing the projected changes in total annual precipitation by the middle of this century as described in the caption. The state of North Carolina is outlined in black.
Legend values range from less than negative 10 to greater than positive 15 percent. Note: unless otherwise specified, projected values are not statistically significant.
North Carolina
The majority of North Carolina is projected to see increases in total annual precipitation of 5 to 10 percent, with the southwestern tip and a narrow strip along the coast expected to see increases of up to 5 percent.
Contiguous US
Projected increases in total annual precipitation are as follows: up to 5 percent for most of the Southeast, as well as the central Midwest, central Great Plains, central West, and Northwest; and 5 to 10 percent for all of the Northeast, as well as portions of the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, northern Midwest, northern Great Plains, and Pacific Northwest, with statistically significant increases in the 5 to 10 percent range for the Northeast, northeastern Midwest, and portions of the northern Great Plains and Pacific Northwest.
Projected decreases of up to 5 percent are expected across most of Texas, New Mexico, and Arizona, as well as southern California.
Periodic droughts, a natural part of the state's climate, are projected to be more intense because higher temperatures will increase evaporation rates and soil moisture loss during dry spells, worsening drought conditions. Resulting decreases in water availability, exacerbated by population growth, will continue to increase competition for water.
A large portion of North Carolina's coastline is extremely vulnerable to sea level rise due to its low elevation and to geological factors that are causing the land to sink. Particularly vulnerable are the Outer Banks, a chain of barrier islands along the state's northeastern coast, where homes, roads, water supply, and other infrastructure are at risk. On average, the state experienced about 6 inches of sea level rise between 1970 and 2020—similar to that for the contiguous US as a whole—and projections under the Intermediate sea level scenario show additional increases of about 10 inches by 2050 and 1.7 feet by 2070 (Figure 9). Across the five scenarios shown in Figure 9, the projected increases from 2020 to 2070 range from about 1 to 3.5 feet. Continued sea level rise poses major challenges to North Carolina's existing coastal water management system, threatening economic harm through damage to ecosystems, property, infrastructure, and the tourism and agriculture industries.
Two time series of observed and projected relative sea level change for (a) the contiguous US and (b) North Carolina from 1970 to 2070 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from negative 1 to positive 5 feet for both graphs. Legends in both graphs denote sources of historical data and scenarios for projections. Line colors for historical data are black for tide gauge data and orange for satellite data. Line and shading colors for projections based on five scenarios are as follows: light blue, Low; medium blue, Intermediate-Low; dark blue, Intermediate; yellow, Intermediate-High; and dark orange, High.
Panel A: Contiguous US
Tide gauge and satellite data generally show increases but with year-to-year variability. Projected data show increases under all scenarios. Tide gauge values range from a minimum of negative 0.3 feet in 1976 to a maximum of positive 0.4 feet in 2023. Satellite values range from a minimum of 0.0 feet in 1994 to a maximum of 0.4 feet in 2023. Projected sea level median values (lines) for the Low scenario range from 0.3 feet in 2020 to 1.1 feet in 2070, compared to 0.4 feet in 2020 to 3.1 feet in 2070 for the High scenario. Likely ranges (shading) become wider over the period shown. The ranges of likely values in 2070 for each of the five scenarios are as follows: Low scenario, from 0.9 to 1.4 feet; Intermediate-Low, 1.2 to 1.7 feet; Intermediate, 1.5 to 2.2 feet; Intermediate-High, 1.8 to 3.1 feet; and High, 2.4 to 3.8 feet.
Panel B: North Carolina
All historical and future scenario lines show increases higher than those in the contiguous US graph. Tide gauge values range from a minimum of negative 0.4 feet in 1976 to a maximum of positive 0.6 feet in 2024. Satellite values range from a minimum of negative 0.1 feet in 1998 to a maximum of positive 0.6 feet in 2023. Projected sea level median values (lines) for the Low scenario range from 0.4 feet in 2020 to 1.4 feet in 2070, compared to 0.4 feet in 2020 to 3.3 feet in 2070 for the High scenario. Likely ranges (shading) become wider over the period shown. The ranges of likely values in 2070 for each of the five scenarios are as follows: Low scenario, from 1.1 to 1.7 feet; Intermediate-Low, 1.4 to 2.0 feet; Intermediate, 1.7 to 2.5 feet; Intermediate-High, 2.1 to 3.3 feet; and High, 2.6 to 4.0 feet.
Sea level rise has caused an increase in high-tide floods associated with nuisance-level impacts, which are occurring more frequently, even on sunny days. High-tide flooding occurs when one or more factors—sea level rise, winds, changes in ocean currents, full or new moons—push water levels above the normal high-tide mark. These events can damage infrastructure, cause road closures, and overwhelm storm drains. High-tide flooding has increased in all US coastal areas, with more rapid increases along the East and Gulf Coasts, and is likely to occur more frequently in North Carolina as global and local sea levels continue to rise. The number of high-tide flood days has increased at Wilmington, with the greatest number occurring in 2018. Under both the Intermediate-Low and Intermediate scenarios, high-tide floods are projected to occur much more frequently in future years (Figure 10).
Graph of the observed and projected annual number of high-tide flood days at Wilmington, North Carolina, from 1936 to 2100 (top), including a magnified view of the observed data for the period 1936 to 2024 (bottom), as described in the caption.
A legend shows annual observations (orange bars) and projected 19-year averages (two-colored bars) for the Intermediate-Low (medium blue) and Intermediate (dark blue) sea level scenarios.
Bottom
Y-axis labels for the magnified view range from 0 to 15 days per year. Following the first recorded event in 1954, there was a gap of 30 years until the next high-tide flooding event. Since the mid-1980s, the gaps have shortened, and the number of events has increased. With the exception of 2019, high-tide flood days occurred every year between 2018 and 2024, with a record-high of 14 days in 2018.
Top
Y-axis labels range from 0 to 350 days, with a horizontal dashed gray line indicating 365 days. Wilmington is projected to experience 30 to 40 high-tide flood days per year by 2050 under the Intermediate-Low and Intermediate scenarios, respectively, and 270 to 365 days by 2100.
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