Temperatures in North Dakota have risen more than 2.6°F since the beginning of the 20th century. The annual average temperature has increased at a rate of 0.2°F per decade. This warming is most evident in winter and is reflected in a below average number of very cold days since 2000. Under a higher emissions pathway, historically unprecedented warming is projected during this century.
Increases in evaporation rates due to rising temperatures may increase the rate of soil moisture loss and the intensity of naturally occurring droughts.
Precipitation is projected to increase during the colder months. Increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events are also projected.
North Dakota lies in the northern Great Plains, straddling the transition from the moist eastern United States to the semiarid West. Due to its location in the center of the North American continent, far from the moderating effects of the oceans, the state experiences large temperature extremes. Average (1991–2020 normals) January temperatures range from about 4°F in the northeast to 18°F in the southwest, while average July temperatures range from 65°F in the northeast to 72°F in the south. Temperatures of 100°F or higher occur nearly every year and are most prevalent in the drier southwestern and south-central regions. The lack of mountain ranges to the north exposes the state to bitterly cold arctic air masses in the winter.
Temperatures in North Dakota have risen more than 2.6°F since the beginning of the 20th century (Figure 1). The first two decades of this century represent one of the warmest periods on record for North Dakota, with several years (2006, 2012, 2015, and 2016) meeting or exceeding the extreme heat of many of the 1930s Dust Bowl years, when intense drought and poor land management likely exacerbated the hot summer temperatures. Over the last 126 years, North Dakota’s annual average temperature has increased 0.2°F per decade. Warming has occurred in all four seasons but has been largest in the winter, with warming rates more than double the other seasons and greater than those for any other state. The relatively small summer warming is reflected in a below average number of very hot days since 1990 (Figure 2) and no overall trend in the number of warm nights since the beginning of the 20th century (Figure 3). Winter warming is reflected in a below average number of very cold days since 2000 (Figure 4). Additionally, over the past 126 years, winter temperatures have increased by 4.5°F per century, more than three times the summer trend of 1.5°F per century.
Annual precipitation ranges from less than 16 inches in the northwest to about 24 inches in the southeast. Statewide total annual precipitation varies from year to year, ranging from a low of 8.8 inches in 1936 to a high of 24.4 inches in 2019 (Figure 5). The wettest multiyear periods were in the early 1940s, 1990s, and early 2010s and the driest in the 1930s. The wettest consecutive 5-year interval was 2007–2011, and the driest was 1933–1937. Most of the state’s precipitation falls during the late spring and early summer months, when thunderstorm activity is highest. The most severe thunderstorms can produce hail, tornadoes, or damaging straight-line winds exceeding 75 mph. The frequency of 2-inch extreme precipitation events has increased (Figure 6). Since 1990, the number of these events has been above average, peaking during the most recent 6-year period (2015–2020).
Compared to other northern states, North Dakota receives less snowfall, averaging 30 to 55 inches annually. However, due to the state’s northern location, winter storm systems can be accompanied by exceptionally severe conditions, including heavy snows, high winds, and low wind chill temperatures. The probability of a blizzard occurring in any given year in North Dakota—greater than 50%—is one of the highest in the Nation. During the winter of 1996–97, North Dakota experienced multiple blizzards and winter storms, which contributed to seasonal snowfalls of more than 100 inches in some parts of the state.
North Dakota is highly prone to both flooding and drought. The Red River Valley is one of the most flood-prone areas in the United States due to the river’s low gradient and northward flow. The spring thaw causes snow and river ice in the south to melt prior to the downstream river channel to the north, creating natural ice jams, flooding of the upstream river, and backfill of runoff into the river’s tributaries. In addition to snowmelt, recharge of soil moisture due to fall precipitation and direct runoff of spring rainfall from saturated soils contribute to spring floods. Based on more than 100 years of river-stage data collected in Fargo, the Red River has exceeded major flood stages 18 times. In the spring of 1997, the melting of record snowfall caused record floods along the river. These records were exceeded by the 2009 floods, when the river at Fargo reached its highest level in recorded history. In June 2011, record-breaking flood levels on the Souris River caused major property damage, including the flooding of 4,000 homes in Minot. Another flood-prone area is Devils Lake, where rapidly rising waters since the early 1990s have destroyed hundreds of homes and businesses and inundated thousands of acres of productive farmland. Since 1993, state and federal funds totaling more than $1 billion have been spent on flood-mitigation efforts in the region. If lake levels were to rise substantially from current levels, an uncontrolled natural spill to the Sheyenne River could occur, potentially causing extensive downstream flooding, channel erosion, and water quality degradation (Figure 7). Drought has been a regular occurrence in the state. The 2017 Northern Plains drought, which primarily impacted North Dakota, South Dakota, and Montana, as well as adjacent Canadian Prairies, was devastating for livestock and agricultural production. The drought emerged in the spring and rapidly spread and intensified throughout the summer, leading to crop failure, the culling of livestock herds, widespread wildfires, low water supplies, and losses exceeding $2.5 billion.
Under a higher emissions pathway, historically unprecedented warming is projected during this century (Figure 1). Even under a lower emissions pathway, annual average temperatures are projected to most likely exceed historical record levels by the middle of the century. However, a large range of temperature increases is projected under both pathways, and under the lower pathway, a few projections are only slightly warmer than historical records. Although the frequency of hot summer temperatures has not increased, continued overall warming is expected to intensify heat waves, while cold waves are projected to decrease in intensity.
Although current observations do not show a positive trend in cold-season precipitation, projections suggest that winter precipitation will increase (Figure 8), even under a lower emissions pathway. Increased cold-season precipitation can impact North Dakota’s agricultural economy both positively (increased soil moisture) and negatively (loss of soil nutrients, planting delays, and yield losses). Extreme precipitation events are also projected to increase in frequency and intensity, potentially leading to increased runoff and flooding, which can reduce water quality and erode soils.
The intensity of droughts is projected to increase. Droughts are a natural part of the climate system, and because precipitation increases are projected to occur during the cooler months, North Dakota will remain vulnerable to periodic drought. Increases in evaporation rates due to rising temperatures may increase the rate of soil moisture loss and the intensity of naturally occurring droughts. Wildfires may also become more common from mid-summer through early fall.
Details on observations and projections are available on the Technical Details and Additional Information page.