2025 State Climate Summaries for the United States

Stevens, L.E.; Anheuser, J.; Essig, M.R.; Lamb, A.D.; Maycock, T.K.; McCarrick, A.L.; Visovatti, A.

doi:doi.org/10.52750/153632

North Dakota lies in the northern Great Plains, straddling the transition from the more humid conditions in the East to semiarid conditions in the West. Due to its location in the center of the North American continent, far from the moderating effects of the oceans, the state experiences large temperature extremes. The lack of mountain ranges to the north exposes the state to bitterly cold Arctic air masses in the winter, with typical winter low temperatures ranging from less than 0°F in the northeast to almost 10°F in the southwest (1991–2020 averages). Average summer high temperatures range from around 75°F in the northeast to more than 80°F in the southern regions; however, temperatures of 100°F or higher occur nearly every year and are most prevalent in the drier southwestern and south-central regions. Annual precipitation totals vary across the state, ranging from less than 16 inches per year in the far northwest to about 24 inches in the southeastern corner.

Figure 1: Observed and projected changes (compared to the 1901–1960 average) in near-surface annual average air temperature for North Dakota. Observed data are for 1900–2024. Projected changes for 2015–2100 were generated using global climate models to explore three possible futures, associated with lower, intermediate, and higher greenhouse gas emissions pathways (the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively). Temperatures in North Dakota (black line) have increased more than 3°F since the beginning of the 20th century (based on a linear trend). Shading indicates the range of annual temperatures from the set of models. Observed temperatures are generally within the envelope of model simulations of the historical period (light gray shading). Less warming is expected under a lower emissions future (the coldest end-of-century projections being about 1.6°F warmer than the 1901–1960 average; blue shading) and more warming under a higher emissions future (the hottest end-of-century projections being about 14.3°F warmer than the hottest year in the observed record; red shading), while the intermediate emissions future leads to moderate warming (with end-of-century projections ranging from about 4.6°F to 12.3°F above the 1901–1960 average; dark gray shading). Adapted from Frankson et al. 2022. Data: NClimDiv and CMIP6.

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Time series of observed and projected temperature change (in degrees Fahrenheit) for North Dakota from 1900 to 2100 as described in the caption.

Y-axis values range from negative 8 to positive 24 degrees. Observed annual temperatures from 1900 to 2024 show variability and range from negative 4.5 to positive 5.7 degrees. By the end of the century, projected increases in temperature range from 1.4 to 9.7 degrees under the lower emissions pathway, from 4.9 to 12.5 degrees under the intermediate pathway, and from 9.5 to 20.6 degrees under the higher pathway.

Annual average temperatures in North Dakota have increased more than 3°F since the beginning of the 20th century (Figure 1). The first 25 years of this century represent one of the warmest periods on record for North Dakota, with six years meeting or exceeding the extreme heat of many of the 1930s Dust Bowl years, when intense drought and poor land management likely exacerbated the hot summer temperatures. Over the last 130 years (1895–2024), North Dakota’s annual average temperature has increased 0.3°F per decade. Warming has occurred in all four seasons but has been largest in the winter (Figure 2a). Summers have not warmed as much, which is characteristic of most states in the Great Plains and Midwest, but summer temperatures have generally been near or above average since the late 1990s (Figure 2b). The relatively small summer warming is reflected in a below-average number of very hot days since the 1990s (Figure 3a). Nighttime minimum temperatures have risen more than daytime maximum temperatures in recent years (Figure 3b). Winter warming is reflected in a generally below-average number of very cold days since the early 2000s (Figure 4). Additionally, over the past 130 years, winter temperatures have increased by 4.8°F per century, more than double the summer trend of 1.7°F per century.

Figure 2: Observed (a) winter (December–February) and (b) summer (June–August) average temperatures for North Dakota from (a) 1895–96 to 2023–24 and (b) 1895 to 2024. Dots show annual values. Bars show averages over 5-year periods (first bar in Figure 2a is a 4-winter average). The horizontal black lines show the long-term (entire period) averages of (a) 11.1°F and (b) 66.4°F. Winter temperatures have mostly been above average since the 1980s. Since the late 1990s, summer temperatures have generally been near or above average, although they remained below the extreme heat of the 1930s Dust Bowl era. Adapted from Frankson et al. 2022. Data: NClimDiv.

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Two graphs of the observed (a) winter and (b) summer average temperatures for North Dakota from 1895–96 to 2023–24 and 1895 to 2024, respectively, as described in the caption.

Panel A: Winter Average Temperature
Y-axis values range from negative 4 to positive 24 degrees Fahrenheit. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0.4 to 22.2 degrees. Five-year values also show variability and are mostly below the long-term average of 11.1 degrees between 1895 and 1979 but are all above average since 1980. The 1915 to 1919 period has the lowest 5-year value at 6.2 degrees, and the 2020 to 2024 period has the highest at 15.3 degrees.

Panel B: Summer Average Temperature
Y-axis values range from 60 to 74 degrees Fahrenheit. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 61.2 to 72.0 degrees. Five-year values also show variability and are all near or below the long-term average of 66.4 degrees between 1895 and 1929, above average between 1930 and 1939, and all near or below average between 1940 and 1954. Since 1955, 5-year values are all near or above average except for the 1965 to 1969 and 1990 to 1994 periods. The 1895 to 1899 period has the lowest 5-year value at 64.6 degrees, and the 1930 to 1934, 1935 to 1939, and 2020 to 2024 periods have the highest at 68.7, 68.5, and 68.5 degrees, respectively.

Figure 3: Observed annual number of (a) very hot days (maximum temperature of 95°F or higher) and (b) warm nights (minimum temperature of 70°F or higher) for North Dakota from 1900 to 2024. Dots show annual values. Bars show averages over 5-year periods. The horizontal black lines show the long-term (entire period) averages of (a) 5.7 days and (b) 0.6 nights. Five-year averages for very hot days during the 1930s were the highest on record and more than double the long-term average. Since the 1990s, however, the number of such days has mostly been below average. Warm nights are historically rare in North Dakota. The 1935–1939 period had the highest 5-year average for warm nights, with 1936 having the highest annual number of such nights. Since the 1980s, the number of warm nights has generally been near or above average. Adapted from Frankson et al. 2022. Data: GHCN-Daily.

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Two graphs of the observed annual number of (a) very hot days and (b) warm nights for North Dakota from 1900 to 2024 as described in the caption.

Panel A: Very Hot Days
Y-axis values range from 0 to 36 days. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0 to 32.0 days. Five-year values also show variability and are all near or below the long-term average of 5.7 days between 1900 and 1929, mostly near or above average between 1930 and 1989, and all below average since 1990. The 1995 to 1999 and 2010 to 2014 periods have the lowest 5-year values at 2.4 and 2.3 days, respectively, and the 1930 to 1934 and 1935 to 1939 periods have the highest at 13.7 and 15.1 days, respectively.

Panel B: Warm Nights
Y-axis values range from 0 to 8 nights. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0 to 7.4 nights. Five-year values show little variability and are mostly near or below the long-term average of 0.6 nights across the entire period. Exceptions include the 1930 to 1934, 1935 to 1939, and 1985 to 1989 periods, which have the highest 5-year values at 1.1, 2.3, and 1.5 nights, respectively. The 1925 to 1929 and 1950 to 1954 periods have the lowest 5-year values at 0.2 nights each.

Figure 4: Observed annual number of very cold days (maximum temperature of 0°F or lower) for North Dakota from 1900 to 2024. Dots show annual values. Bars show averages over 5-year periods. The horizontal black line shows the long-term (entire period) average of 10.3 days. The number of very cold days has generally been below average since the early 2000s, consistent with observed winter warming in the region. Adapted from Frankson et al. 2022. Data: GHCN-Daily.

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Graph of the observed annual number of very cold days for North Dakota from 1900 to 2024 as described in the caption.

Y-axis values range from 0 to 40 days. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0 to 35.0 days. Five-year values also show variability and are all above the long-term average of 10.3 days between 1900 and 1924, mostly below average between 1925 and 1964, and all above average between 1965 and 1979. Since 1980, 5-year values are all near or below average. The 1940 to 1944 and 2000 to 2004 periods have the lowest 5-year values 5.6 and 5.3 days, respectively, and the 1915 to 1919 period has the highest at 19.7 days.

Precipitation varies across the year and from year to year. Statewide total annual precipitation has varied from a low of 8.8 inches in 1936 to a high of 24.4 inches in 2019 (Figure 5). Most of the state’s precipitation falls during the late spring and early summer months, when thunderstorm activity is highest. The most severe thunderstorms can produce hail, tornadoes, or damaging straight-line winds exceeding 75 mph. The frequency of 2-inch extreme precipitation events has generally increased (Figure 6). Since the 1990s, the number of these events has mostly been near or above average, peaking during the 2010–2014 period.

Figure 5: Observed total annual precipitation for North Dakota from 1895 to 2024. Dots show annual values. Bars show averages over 5-year periods. The horizontal black line shows the long-term (entire period) average of 17.5 inches. Total annual precipitation varies widely but has generally been near or above average since the 1990s, with the exception of the 2020–2024 period, which was slightly below average. Adapted from Frankson et al. 2022. Data: NClimDiv.

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Graph of the observed total annual precipitation for North Dakota from 1895 to 2024 as described in the caption.

Y-axis values range from 6 to 26 inches. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 8.8 to 24.4 inches. Five-year values also show variability and are mostly near or below the long-term average of 17.5 inches between 1895 and 1989 but are all near or above average since 1990 except for the 2020 to 2024 period. The 1930 to 1934 period has the lowest 5-year value at 14.4 inches, and the 2010 to 2014 period has the highest at 20.4 inches.

Figure 6: Observed annual number of 2-inch extreme precipitation events (days with precipitation of 2 inches or more) for North Dakota from 1900 to 2024. Dots show annual values. Bars show averages over 5-year periods. The horizontal black line shows the long-term (entire period) average of about 0.5 events, indicating that a typical reporting station experiences an event about once every two years. The number of 2-inch extreme precipitation events has mostly been near or above average since the 1990s. Adapted from Frankson et al. 2022. Data: GHCN-Daily.

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Graph of the observed annual number of 2-inch extreme precipitation events for North Dakota from 1900 to 2024 as described in the caption.

Y-axis values range from 0.0 to 1.5 events. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0 to 1.2 events. Five-year values also show variability and are mostly below the long-term average of about 0.5 events between 1900 and 1944, all above average between 1945 and 1974, and all below average between 1975 and 1989. Since 1990, 5-year values are all above average. The 1905 to 1909 period has the lowest 5-year value at 0.2 events, and the 2010 to 2014 period has the highest at 0.7 events.

Compared to other northern states, North Dakota receives less snowfall, averaging 30 to 55 inches annually (1991–2020 averages). However, due to the state’s northern location, winter storm systems can be accompanied by exceptionally severe conditions, including heavy snows, high winds, and low wind chill temperatures. North Dakota, along with South Dakota and Nebraska, has a greater than 50% probability—the highest in the Nation—of a blizzard occurring in any given year. During the winter of 1996–97, North Dakota experienced multiple blizzards and winter storms, which contributed to seasonal snowfalls of more than 100 inches in some parts of the state. During April 12–14, 2022, a historic 3-day blizzard hit western and central North Dakota, with snow totals of up to 3 feet and 60 mph winds in many locations; another snowstorm crossed the state less than 10 days later, adding to the remnants of the previous blizzard.

North Dakota is highly prone to both flooding and drought. The Red River Valley is one of the most flood-prone areas in the United States due to the river’s low gradient and northward flow. The spring thaw causes snow and river ice in the south to melt prior to the downstream river channel to the north, creating natural ice jams, flooding of the upstream river, and backfill of runoff into the river’s tributaries. In addition to snowmelt, recharge of soil moisture due to fall precipitation and direct runoff of spring rainfall from saturated soils contribute to spring floods. In the Fargo–Moorhead area, the Red River has exceeded the National Weather Service flood stage (of 18 feet) 60 times over the last 122 years (1902–2024), with 7 of the top 10 floods occurring in the last 30 years. In the spring of 1997, the melting of snowfall caused record floods along the river. These records were exceeded by the 2009 floods, when the river at Fargo reached its highest level in recorded history. In June 2011, record-breaking flood levels on the Souris River caused major property damage, including the flooding of 4,000 homes in Minot.

Another flood-prone area is Devils Lake, where rapidly rising waters since the early 1990s have destroyed hundreds of homes and businesses and inundated thousands of acres of productive farmland. Since 1993, state and federal funds totaling more than $1.3 billion have been spent on flood-mitigation efforts in the region. If lake levels were to rise substantially from current levels, an uncontrolled natural spill to the Sheyenne River could occur, potentially causing extensive downstream flooding, channel erosion, and water quality degradation (Figure 7).

Figure 7: Annual time series of the average water level of Devils Lake at Creel Bay from 1930 to 2024. Lake levels have fluctuated over time but have been steadily rising overall since the 1940s. Water began spilling from Devils Lake to Stump Lake in 1999, and in 2007, Devils Lake and Stump Lake essentially became one continuous body of water. If lake levels were to rise substantially from current levels, an uncontrolled natural spill to the Sheyenne River could occur. Adapted from Frankson et al. 2022. Data: USGS NWIS.

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Time series of the average annual water levels for Devils Lake at Creel Bay, North Dakota, from 1930 to 2024 as described in the caption.

Y-axis values range from 1,400 to 1,460 feet. The light blue line plots measurements from the old gauge site, and the dark blue line plots those from the new gauge site. Red dashed lines at 1,446 feet and 1,458 feet show the levels at which water overflows to Stump Lake and the Sheyenne River, respectively. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from a low of 1,401 feet in October 1940 to a high of 1,454 feet in July 2011. Water levels dropped during the 1930s but then began rising gradually, with several fluctuations, until the early 1990s. They then rose rapidly and exceeded the Stump Lake overflow level in the early 2000s, reaching their peak in 2011. Since then, water levels have dropped off slightly but still remain above the Stump Lake overflow level.

Drought has been a regular occurrence in the state. Prolonged droughts occurred in the 1930s and 1950s, which substantially affected water supplies, agriculture, and ecosystems. More recently, an intense summer drought occurred in 2012, and the 2017 Northern Plains flash drought (the rapid onset or intensification of drought)—primarily impacting North Dakota, South Dakota, and Montana, as well as the adjacent Canadian Prairies region—had devastating impacts on livestock and agricultural production. The 2017 drought emerged in the spring and rapidly spread and intensified throughout the summer, leading to crop failure, the culling of livestock herds, widespread wildfires, low water supplies, and US agricultural losses exceeding $2.6 billion.

Under the intermediate and higher emissions pathways, historically unprecedented warming is projected during this century (Figure 1). Even under the lower emissions pathway, some projections show annual average temperatures exceeding historical levels by the middle of the century. However, projections for all three pathways show a large range of potential temperature increases, and some projections for the lower pathway are comparable to recent observed values. Although the observed number of very hot days has remained relatively low in recent years (Figure 3a), continued overall warming is expected to intensify heat waves, while cold waves are projected to decrease in intensity.

Under the intermediate emissions pathway, projected increases in total winter precipitation (Figure 8) and spring precipitation by midcentury are statistically significant in northern portions of the state but are less certain elsewhere. There is uncertainty in projections for annual, summer, and fall precipitation. Increased cold-season precipitation can impact North Dakota’s agricultural economy both positively (increased soil moisture) and negatively (loss of soil nutrients, planting delays, and yield losses). Extreme precipitation events are projected to increase in frequency and intensity, potentially leading to increased runoff and flooding, which can reduce water quality and erode soils.

Figure 8: Projected changes in total winter (December–February) precipitation (%) for the middle of the 21st century (2041–2070) compared to the 1991–2020 average under the intermediate emissions pathway (SSP2-4.5 scenario). Hatching represents areas where the majority of climate models indicate a statistically significant change. Statistically significant increases of 10–15% in total winter precipitation are projected for north-central and northeastern portions of North Dakota by midcentury. Winter precipitation is also projected to increase throughout the rest of the state; however, these changes are not statistically significant. Adapted from Frankson et al. 2022. Data: CMIP6.

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Map of the contiguous United States showing the projected changes in total winter precipitation by the middle of this century as described in the caption. The state of North Dakota is outlined in black.

Legend values range from less than negative 10 to greater than positive 15 percent. Note: unless otherwise specified, projected values are not statistically significant.

North Dakota
North Dakota is projected to see increases in total winter precipitation of 5 to 10 percent across a sliver of the western region and 10 to 15 percent across the remainder of the state. Statistically significant increases in the 10 to 15 percent range are projected for north-central and northeastern North Dakota.

Contiguous US
Projected increases in total winter precipitation are as follows: up to 5 percent across a narrow swath running westward from western Georgia to southern California; 5 to 10 percent in the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, southern Midwest, portions of the Great Plains, and most of the West; and 10 to 15 percent in the majority of the Northeast and upper Midwest as well as portions of the northern Great Plains and Intermountain West, with statistically significant increases in the 10 to 15 percent range for the Northeast, the northernmost regions of the upper Midwest, and portions of the northern Great Plains.

Projected decreases are as follows: up to 5 percent for southern regions of the Southwest and northern and central Texas; 5 to 10 percent for southern New Mexico and western Texas; and 5 to 10 percent or greater for southwestern Texas.

Droughts, a natural part of North Dakota's climate, are projected to increase in intensity due to higher temperatures and the associated increase in evaporation rates and soil moisture loss. The frequency and intensity of wildfires are also projected to increase from mid-summer through early fall.

Details on observations and projections are available on the Technical Details and Additional Information page.
The compiled version of the 2022 State Climate Summaries, including the complete author list and recommended citations, is available on the Downloads page.

Authors: Laura E. Stevens, North Carolina State University; James Anheuser, North Carolina State University; Mark R. Essig, North Carolina State University; April D. Lamb, North Carolina State University; Thomas K. Maycock, North Carolina State University; Andrea L. McCarrick, North Carolina State University; Alexis Visovatti, North Carolina State University
Contributors: Jessicca Allen, Visual Communications Lead and PDF Layout, North Carolina State University; Jeff Bliss, Data Explorer Tool Development, National Environmental Mapping and Applications Center; Amy Camper, Visual Communications and PDF Layout, Innovative Consulting & Management Services, LLC; Ryan Cox, Web Application Engineer, North Carolina State University; Jacquelyn Crossman, Citation Management, NOAA NCEI Librarian, MPF-ZAI; Greg Dobson, GIS and Figure Development, National Environmental Mapping and Applications Center; David R. Easterling, Advisor, Future Climate, LLC, and Earth Knowledge, Inc.; Aaron Goodman, Web Developer, North Carolina State University; Katharine M. Johnson, Web Team Lead and GIS Analyst, North Carolina State University; Kenneth E. Kunkel, Advisor and Principal Research Scholar, North Carolina State University; Ciara R. Lemery, Figure and Production Coordination, Independent Contractor; Angel Li, Web Developer, North Carolina State University; Dave Michelson, Data Explorer Tool Development, National Environmental Mapping and Applications Center; Ronald Opio, Data Analysis and Figure Development, North Carolina State University; Xia Sun, Data Analysis and Figure Development, North Carolina State University; Xiangdong Zhang, Advisor, North Carolina State University
Acknowledgements: Tamara Houston, Regional Climate Center Review Coordination, NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information; Rezaul Mahmood, High Plains Region Expert Review, High Plains Regional Climate Center, University of Nebraska–Lincoln; Gannon Rush, High Plains Region Expert Review, High Plains Regional Climate Center, University of Nebraska–Lincoln
Recommended Citation: Stevens, L.E., J. Anheuser, M.R. Essig, A.D. Lamb, T.K. Maycock, A.L. McCarrick, and A. Visovatti, 2026: 2025 State Climate Summaries for the United States: North Dakota. [Update to Frankson et al., 2022: North Dakota State Climate Summary 2022.] North Carolina Institute for Climate Studies Report NCICS-001-ND. North Carolina State University, Asheville, NC. https://doi.org/10.52750/494702

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2025 State Climate Summaries

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