Nebraska lies in the central Great Plains, straddling the transition from relatively abundant precipitation (averaging more than 35 inches) in the far southeast to semiarid conditions (averaging less than 20 inches) in the panhandle (1991–2020 averages). The state is located far from the moderating effects of the oceans, and temperatures vary widely across seasons. Summer high temperatures are typically in the mid- to high 80s (F°) across the state, and winter low temperatures typically range from 13°F to 18°F across Nebraska.
Time series of observed and projected temperature change (in degrees Fahrenheit) for Nebraska from 1900 to 2100 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from negative 4 to positive 20 degrees. Observed annual temperatures from 1900 to 2024 show variability and range from negative 2.8 to positive 4.4 degrees. By the end of the century, projected increases in temperature range from 1.8 to 8.2 degrees under the lower emissions pathway, from 4.3 to 11.4 degrees under the intermediate pathway, and from 8.7 to 18.8 degrees under the higher pathway.
Since the beginning of the 20th century, annual average temperatures in Nebraska have increased about 2°F (Figure 1). Since 2000, annual average temperatures have been higher than the long-term average and generally comparable to those of the 1930s Dust Bowl era. The hottest year on record was 2012, with an average temperature of 52.7°F, which was 4.1°F higher than the long-term (1895–2024) average. Recent warming has been concentrated in the winter and spring. Winter temperatures have generally been near or above average since the 1980s (Figure 2a). The warmest summers on record occurred in the 1930s, when drought and poor land management likely exacerbated the hot summer conditions; since the early 2000s, summer average temperatures have generally been near or above average (Figure 2b). The lack of a long-term summer warming trend is reflected in a generally near- or below-average occurrence of extremely hot days and warm nights since the 1960s (Figures 3a and 3b). Winter warming is reflected in a generally below-average number of very cold nights since the 1990s (Figure 4).
Two graphs of the observed (a) winter and (b) summer average temperatures for Nebraska from 1895–96 to 2023–24 and 1895 to 2024, respectively, as described in the caption.
Panel A: Winter Average Temperature
Y-axis values range from 12 to 36 degrees Fahrenheit. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 14.5 to 33.3 degrees. Five-year values also show variability and are mostly near or below the long-term average of 25.1 degrees between 1895 and 1979 but are all near or above average since 1980. The 1915 to 1919 period has the lowest 5-year value at 21.7 degrees, and the 1995 to 1999 and 2000 to 2004 periods have the highest at 28.1 and 28.0 degrees, respectively.
Panel B: Summer Average Temperature
Y-axis values range from 64 to 80 degrees Fahrenheit. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 66.0 to 77.5 degrees. Five-year values also show variability and are all near or below the long-term average of 71.8 degrees between 1895 and 1929, above average between 1930 and 1944, and mostly near or below average between 1945 and 1999. Since 2000, 5-year values are all near or above average. The 1905 to 1909 period has the lowest 5-year value at 70.2 degrees, and the 1930 to 1934 and 1935 to 1939 periods have the highest at 74.3 and 74.5 degrees, respectively.
Two graphs of the observed annual number of (a) extremely hot days and (b) warm nights for Nebraska from 1900 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Panel A: Extremely Hot Days
Y-axis values range from 0 to 44 days. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0.1 to 39.4 days. Five-year values also show variability and are mostly near or above the long-term average of 5.8 days between 1900 and 1959 but are all near or below average since 1960. The 1905 to 1909 and 2015 to 2019 periods have the lowest 5-year values at 1.9 and 1.7 days, respectively, and the 1930 to 1934 and 1935 to 1939 periods have the highest at 17.0 and 19.5 days, respectively.
Panel B: Warm Nights
Y-axis values range from 0 to 24 nights. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0.1 to 22.8 nights. Five-year values also show variability and are all near or below the long-term average of 6.0 nights between 1900 and 1929, all near or above average between 1930 and 1959, and mostly below average since 1960. The 1905 to 1909 period has the lowest 5-year value at 3.0 nights, and the 1930 to 1934 and 1935 to 1939 periods have the highest at 11.8 and 14.1 nights, respectively.
Graph of the observed annual number of very cold nights for Nebraska from 1900 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from 0 to 36 nights. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 2.3 to 33.2 nights. Five-year values also show variability and are all above the long-term average of 14.3 nights between 1900 and 1919, mostly below average between 1920 and 1959, and mostly near or above average between 1960 and 1989. Since 1990, 5-year values are all below average. The 2000 to 2004 period has the lowest 5-year value at 9.3 nights, and the 1915 to 1919 and 1975 to 1979 periods have the highest at 22.2 and 22.0 nights, respectively.
Precipitation is highly variable from year to year, with the statewide annual total ranging from a low of 13.4 inches in 2012 to a high of 35.5 inches in 1915 (Figure 5a). The majority of precipitation in Nebraska falls during the spring and summer months (Figure 5b).
Two graphs of the observed total (a) annual and (b) summer precipitation for Nebraska from 1895 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Panel A: Total Annual Precipitation
Y-axis values range from 12 to 40 inches. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 13.4 to 35.5 inches. Five-year values also show variability and are mostly near or below the long-term average of 22.8 inches across the entire period, showing no overall trend. One notable exception is the 2015 to 2019 period, which has the highest 5-year value at 27.9 inches. The 1935 to 1939 period has the lowest 5-year value at 18.7 inches.
Panel B: Total Summer Precipitation
Y-axis values for total summer precipitation range from 2 to 18 inches. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 3.7 to 16.8 inches. Five-year values also show variability and are mostly near or below the long-term average of 9.4 inches across the entire period, showing no overall trend. Exceptions include the following 5-year periods, which are all above average, at roughly 11 inches: 1900 to 1905, 1905 to 1909, 1965 to 1969, and 1990 to 1994. The 1935 to 1939 period has the lowest 5-year value at 7.0 inches, and the 1990 to 1994 period has the highest at 11.4 inches.
Because agriculture is a vital sector of Nebraska’s economy, the state is particularly vulnerable to both high and low amounts of precipitation. The number of 2-inch extreme precipitation events shows no long-term trend but has generally been near or above average since the 2005–2009 period (Figure 6). Thousands of miles of rivers flow through Nebraska, and the state is bordered by the Missouri River to the east. Many cities and farmlands located along these waterways are at risk of flooding from extreme precipitation events and snowmelt. In the summer of 1993, heavy rains throughout the central United States caused record flooding along the Missouri (as well as the Mississippi). This was Nebraska’s wettest summer, with statewide precipitation totaling 16.8 inches, more than 7 inches above the long-term summer average (Figure 5b). The flooding caused millions of dollars in damages to crops and infrastructure. In June 2011, runoff from record winter snowpack in the Rocky Mountains combined with heavy rains, particularly in the upper Missouri River Basin, to cause major flooding along the entire length of the Missouri. In Omaha, the river crested at 36.3 feet on July 2, 2011, the second highest crest on record. In March 2019, a “bomb cyclone” (a rapidly intensifying midlatitude storm system) triggered historic flooding across Nebraska and surrounding states and led to at least three fatalities. The bomb cyclone brought warmth that caused rapid melting of snow and river ice, leading to ice jams and overwhelming rivers. Record crests occurred on the Big Blue, Elkhorn, Loup, Missouri, and Platte Rivers and resulted in multiple dam and levee breaches. The widespread damage to towns, infrastructure, and agriculture cost an estimated $11 billion, making it one of the costliest US inland flooding events on record. The year 2019 became Nebraska’s third-wettest year on record (Figure 5a).
Graph of the observed annual number of 2-inch extreme precipitation events for Nebraska from 1900 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from 0.0 to 2.5 events. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0.3 to 2.0 events. Five-year values also show variability and are mostly above the long-term average of about 1.0 events between 1900 and 1919, mostly below average between 1920 and 1984, and mostly near or above average since 1985. The 1930 to 1934 and 1935 to 1939 periods have the lowest 5-year values at 0.7 events each, and the 1900 to 1904 period has the highest at 1.5 events.
Nebraska also experiences periodic intense droughts, which can sometimes last for several years. One of the worst in the state’s history was the 1930s drought of the Dust Bowl era, when the impacts of the dry conditions were exacerbated by extreme heat. Nebraska’s hottest summers on record occurred in 1934 and 1936 (Figure 2b); they were also among the top five driest summers (1934 ranks fifth and 1936 second; Figure 5b). Conditions in July 1936 were particularly extreme, with Omaha experiencing 16 days with temperatures above 100°F and 1 day with temperatures exceeding 110°F. This combination of heat and dryness, exacerbated by poor land management practices and the close temporal proximity of these two extreme summers, is unique in the record and contributed to the severe impacts of the Dust Bowl era. However, Nebraska’s driest year on record was 2012, when statewide precipitation averaged only 3.7 inches during the summer months, well below the historical average of 9.4 inches (Figure 5b). By the end of September, more than 75% of the state was experiencing exceptional drought conditions, the US Drought Monitor’s highest category of drought severity. The drought, combined with the extreme summer heat, had significant negative impacts on nonirrigated crop yields and pasture conditions, and the state did not see substantial relief from drought conditions for months.
Nebraska experiences damaging storms during all seasons. During the winter months, snowstorms and ice storms are a frequent hazard. Western Nebraska, along with the Dakotas, has a greater than 50% probability—the highest in the Nation—of a blizzard occurring in any given year. Convective storms are common in the warmer months, including flash flood–producing rainstorms and severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. The southwestern part of the Nebraska panhandle lies in Hail Alley, the most hail-prone area in the country, and averages 7–9 hail days each year. A hailstone that fell in Aurora on June 22, 2003, holds the state record for the largest hailstone by circumference (18.8 inches). Nebraska averages 50 tornadoes annually (1995–2024), the ninth-highest number of any US state. On May 6, 1975, an F4 tornado struck Omaha, killing three people and causing more than $1 billion in damages. On June 16, 2014, a supercell thunderstorm produced four EF4 tornadoes (including a set of rare “twin tornadoes”) in the northeastern part of the state, killing two and destroying large portions of the town of Pilger. The year 2024 also saw a very active tornado and windstorm season, which caused damage across the state. A particularly destructive tornado outbreak occurred from April 25 to 28, including an EF4 tornado in the Omaha area—the first since 2014. And on May 24 of the same year, a derecho (a widespread, long-lived straight-line windstorm associated with a series of severe thunderstorms) knocked out power to 200,000 customers across parts of Nebraska and Iowa.
Under the intermediate and higher emissions pathways, historically unprecedented warming is projected during this century (Figure 1). Even under the lower emissions pathway, most projections show annual average temperatures exceeding historical levels by the middle of the century. However, projections for all three pathways show a large range of potential temperature increases, and some projections for the lower pathway are comparable to recent observed values. Increases in heat wave intensity are projected for Nebraska, but the intensity of cold waves is projected to decrease.
Under the intermediate emissions pathway, projected increases in total winter precipitation by midcentury are statistically significant in the northwestern tip of the state but are less certain elsewhere (Figure 7). There is also uncertainty in projections for annual, spring, summer, and fall precipitation. Heavier winter precipitation could have both positive and negative effects on Nebraska’s important agricultural economy, improving soil moisture for winter wheat but potentially delaying planting for summer crops. Extreme precipitation events are also projected to increase, leading to increased runoff and flooding, which can reduce water quality and erode soils.
Map of the contiguous United States showing the projected changes in total winter precipitation by the middle of this century as described in the caption. The state of Nebraska is outlined in black.
Legend values range from less than negative 10 to greater than positive 15 percent. Note: unless otherwise specified, projected values are not statistically significant.
Nebraska
All of Nebraska is projected to see increases in total winter precipitation of 10 to 15 percent. A statistically significant increase in the 10 to 15 percent range is projected for a small area in the northwestern corner of the state.
Contiguous US
Projected increases in total winter precipitation are as follows: up to 5 percent across a narrow swath running westward from western Georgia to southern California; 5 to 10 percent in the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, southern Midwest, portions of the Great Plains, and most of the West; and 10 to 15 percent in the majority of the Northeast and upper Midwest as well as portions of the northern Great Plains and Intermountain West, with statistically significant increases in the 10 to 15 percent range for the Northeast, the northernmost regions of the upper Midwest, and portions of the northern Great Plains.
Projected decreases are as follows: up to 5 percent for southern regions of the Southwest and northern and central Texas; 5 to 10 percent for southern New Mexico and western Texas; and 5 to 10 percent or greater for southwestern Texas.
Droughts, a natural part of Nebraska’s climate, are projected to increase in intensity due to higher temperatures and the associated increase in evaporation rates and soil moisture loss. This would have negative impacts on dryland farming, although the impacts could be mitigated where irrigation is possible.
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