New Jersey's geographic position in the midlatitudes means that the jet stream often influences the state's varied weather patterns, particularly in the late fall, winter, and spring. Low-pressure storms associated with the jet stream bring frequent precipitation. In addition, New Jersey's location on the eastern coast of North America exposes it to cold winter and warm summer air masses from the continental interior and moderate and moist air masses from the western Atlantic Ocean. In winter, the contrast between the frigid air masses of the continental interior and the relatively warm Atlantic provides the energy for occasional intense storms known as nor'easters—cold-season coastal storms that can generate a tremendous amount of precipitation (in the form of snow, sleet, or freezing rain), strong winds, coastal flooding, and damage to infrastructure. As a result of these influences, New Jersey's climate is characterized by moderately cold, occasionally snowy winters and warm, humid summers. There is a contrast in temperatures across New Jersey, with cooler temperatures in northern portions of the state and warmer temperatures in the south. High-elevation regions in the northwest experience lower temperatures and more annual precipitation than the rest of the state. Winter low temperatures range from less than 20°F in the northwest to more than 30°F along the coast (1991–2020 averages). Summer high temperatures range from less than 80°F in high-elevation areas to more than 85° in the southwest. There is a north–south gradient in precipitation, with the north-central portion of the state averaging around 50 inches of precipitation per year, and coastal locations averaging around 45 inches. High-elevation regions receive near 30 inches of snow annually on average, while coastal locations generally receive less than 20 inches.
Time series of observed and projected temperature change (in degrees Fahrenheit) for New Jersey from 1900 to 2100 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from negative 4 to positive 18 degrees. Observed annual temperatures from 1900 to 2024 show variability and range from negative 3.3 to positive 4.7 degrees. By the end of the century, projected increases in temperature range from 2.0 to 8.5 degrees under the lower emissions pathway, from 4.4 to 10.4 degrees under the intermediate pathway, and from 8.6 to 16.8 degrees under the higher pathway.
Annual average temperatures in New Jersey have increased almost 4°F since the beginning of the 20th century (Figure 1), and temperatures in the 2000s have been higher than in any other historical period. The year 2012 was the warmest on record at 4.0°F above the long-term (1895–2024) average, with 2023 and 2024 tied for second warmest at 3.7°F above average. The number of very hot days varies from year-to-year and shows no long-term trend (Figure 2a). The number of warm nights has shown an upward trend since the 1960s, with the highest 5-year averages all occurring since the early 2000s (Figure 2b). The number of very cold nights has mostly been below average since the 1990s (Figure 3).
Two graphs of the observed annual number of (a) very hot days and (b) warm nights for New Jersey from 1900 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Panel A: Very Hot Days
Y-axis values range from 0 to 16 days. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0.2 to 14.7 days. Five-year values also show variability and are all below the long-term average of 4.5 days between 1895 and 1929 except for the 1910 to 1914 period, all above average between 1930 and 1959, and all below average between 1960 and 1979. Since 1980, 5-year values are mostly above average. The 1970 to 1974 and 1975 to 1979 periods have the lowest 5-year values at 2.0 and 1.7 days, respectively, and the 1930 to 1934 and 1940 to 1944 periods have the highest at 7.0 and 6.9 days, respectively.
Panel B: Warm Nights
Y-axis values range from 0 to 32 nights. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 3.4 to 30.2 nights. Five-year values also show variability and are mostly near or below the long-term average of 12.5 nights between 1900 and 1994 but are all above average since 1995. The 1920 to 1924 period has the lowest 5-year value at 6.0 nights, and the 2010 to 2014, 2015 to 2019, and 2020 to 2024 periods have the highest at 20.6, 19.7, and 20.5 nights, respectively.
Graph of the observed annual number of very cold nights for New Jersey from 1900 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from 0 to 10 nights. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0 to 8.8 nights. Five-year values also show variability and are all above the long-term average of 1.7 nights between 1900 and 1919, all near or below average between 1920 and 1959 except for the 1930 to 1934 period, and all near or above average between 1960 and 1989 except for the 1970 to 1979 period. All 5-year values since 1990 are below average. The 2020 to 2024 period has the lowest 5-year value at 0.5 nights, and the 1915 to 1919 period has the highest at 3.6 nights.
Statewide annual precipitation has ranged from a low of 29.3 inches in 1965 to a high of 64.8 inches in 2018 (Figure 4a). Annual precipitation has generally been near or above average since the 1970s and was about 3.5 inches above average over 2005–2024. Summer precipitation has generally been near or above average since the early 2000s (Figure 4b). Since the 1970s, the number of 2-inch extreme precipitation events has generally been near or above average, with the highest annual value of more than 5 events during 2011 (Figure 5).
Two graphs of the observed total (a) annual and (b) summer precipitation for New Jersey from 1895 to 2024.
Panel A: Total Annual Precipitation
Y-axis values range from 24 to 68 inches. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 29.3 to 64.8 inches. Five-year values also show variability and are mostly near or below the long-term average of 45.6 inches between 1895 and 1969 but are mostly near or above average since 1970. The 1960 to 1964 and 1965 to 1969 periods have the lowest 5-year values at 40.8 and 40.3 inches, respectively, and the 1975 to 1979 period has the highest at 49.8 inches.
Panel B: Total Summer Precipitation
Y-axis values range from 4 to 28 inches. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 5.6 to 23.2 inches. Five-year values also show variability and are mostly near or below the long-term average of 13.1 inches between 1895 and 1999 but are all above average since 2000. The 1980 to 1984 period has the lowest 5-year value at 10.7 inches, and the 1900 to 1904 and 2010 to 2014 periods have the highest at 15.1 and 15.3 inches, respectively.
Graph of the observed annual number of 2-inch extreme precipitation events for New Jersey from 1900 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from 0 to 6 events. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0.2 to 5.2 events. Five-year values show also show variability and are above the long-term average of 2.2 events between 1900 and 1909 but are all near or below average between 1910 and 1969 except for the 1935 to 1939 period. Since 1970, 5-year values are mostly near or above average. The 1915 to 1919 period has the lowest 5-year value at 1.3 events, and the 2010 to 2014 and 2020 to 2024 periods have the highest at 3.3 and 3.1 events, respectively.
The state experiences short-term drought events, such as those that occurred in 2002, 2010, 2016–2017, 2022, and 2024–2025. Droughts can have multiple impacts, including reduced crop yields, decreased water availability, and increased wildfire risk. New Jersey experienced 537 wildfires in October–November of 2024, during which time the Manasquan Reservoir hit record-low levels and the entire state moved into either severe or extreme drought status (as defined by the US Drought Monitor).
Extreme weather events typically experienced in the state include nor'easters, snowstorms, thunderstorms, heavy precipitation and flooding, heat waves and cold waves, tropical storms, and hurricanes. The remnants of Hurricane Ida inflicted widespread damage in New Jersey on September 1–2, 2021, dropping as much as 10 inches of rain, causing flash flooding that led to more than two dozen deaths, and spinning off three tornadoes, including an EF3 in Gloucester County. Newark set several rainfall records on September 1: the wettest calendar day (8.41 inches), 1-hour rainfall (3.24 inches), 2-hour rainfall (5.06 inches), and 6-hour rainfall (7.88 inches). In late October 2012, Superstorm Sandy (a post-tropical storm) became one of the most extreme and destructive events to affect the northeastern United States and the fifth-costliest US disaster on record. A powerful storm surge, the most destructive element of Sandy, reached 9–10 feet above normal in some areas along the coast. This was caused by strong winds and an unusual west-northwestward track. New Jersey experienced extensive damage from severe winds and coastal flooding, with an estimated $29.4 billion in repair, response, and restoration costs. The number of landfalling Atlantic hurricanes is not expected to rise. However, rainfall rates from such storms, as well as the proportion of time they spend as major hurricanes, are projected to increase.
February 2010 brought three winter storms to the state, resulting in Atlantic City's snowiest month on record. The blizzard of 2016 brought high winds and heavy snow; Bayville had gusts of 72 mph, and many beaches experienced moderate to major erosion. More recently, a long-duration winter storm struck New Jersey from January 31 through February 2, 2021, bringing extreme snowfall rates of 2 to 4 inches per hour, widespread accumulations of 2 feet, and isolated pockets of nearly 3 feet.
Under the intermediate and higher emissions pathways, historically unprecedented warming is projected during this century (Figure 1). Even under the lower emissions pathway, most projections show annual average temperatures exceeding historical levels by the middle of the century. However, projections for all three pathways show a large range of potential temperature increases, and some projections for the lower pathway are comparable to recent observed values. While cold waves are projected to become less intense, heat waves are projected to become more intense.
Under the intermediate emissions pathway, statistically significant increases in total annual precipitation are projected by midcentury across most of the state but are less certain elsewhere (Figure 6). Statistically significant increases are also projected for winter precipitation across the northern third of the state. There is uncertainty in projections for spring, summer, and fall precipitation. Increases are also projected in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events, potentially increasing the risk of coastal and inland flooding throughout the state.
Map of the contiguous United States showing the projected changes in total annual precipitation by the middle of this century as described in the caption. A blowup map of the state of New Jersey appears to the right of the contiguous US.
Legend values range from less than negative 10 to greater than positive 15 percent. Note: unless otherwise specified, projected values are not statistically significant.
New Jersey
Nearly all of New Jersey is projected to see statistically significant increases in total annual precipitation of 5 to 10 percent.
Contiguous US
Projected increases in total annual precipitation are as follows: up to 5 percent for most of the Southeast, as well as the central Midwest, central Great Plains, central West, and Northwest; and 5 to 10 percent for all of the Northeast, as well as portions of the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, northern Midwest, northern Great Plains, and Pacific Northwest, with statistically significant increases in the 5 to 10 percent range for the Northeast, northeastern Midwest, and portions of the northern Great Plains and Pacific Northwest.
Projected decreases of up to 5 percent are expected across most of Texas, New Mexico, and Arizona, as well as southern California.
Naturally occurring droughts are projected to increase in intensity due to higher temperatures and the associated increase in evaporation rates and soil moisture loss.
New Jersey is at considerable risk from sea level rise. On average, the state experienced about 9 inches of sea level rise between 1970 and 2020—compared to 6 inches for the contiguous US as a whole—and projections under the Intermediate sea level scenario show additional increases of about 12 inches by 2050 and 1.8 feet by 2070 (Figure 7). Across the five scenarios shown in Figure 7, the projected increases from 2020 to 2070 range from about 1 to 3.5 feet. Land subsidence (sinking) increases the rate of relative sea level rise in the state. Given the millions of residents who live in New Jersey's coastal communities, rising seas pose a profound threat to homes, infrastructure, public health, and natural resources, including beaches and wetlands.
Two time series of observed and projected relative sea level change for (a) the contiguous US and (b) New Jersey from 1970 to 2070 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from negative 1 to positive 5 feet for both graphs. Legends in both graphs denote sources of historical data and scenarios for projections. Line colors for historical data are black for tide gauge data and orange for satellite data. Line and shading colors for projections based on five scenarios are as follows: light blue, Low; medium blue, Intermediate-Low; dark blue, Intermediate; yellow, Intermediate-High; and dark orange, High.
Panel A: Contiguous US
Tide gauge and satellite data generally show increases but with year-to-year variability. Projected data show increases under all scenarios. Tide gauge values range from a minimum of negative 0.3 feet in 1976 to a maximum of positive 0.4 feet in 2023. Satellite values range from a minimum of 0.0 feet in 1994 to a maximum of 0.4 feet in 2023. Projected sea level median values (lines) for the Low scenario range from 0.3 feet in 2020 to 1.1 feet in 2070, compared to 0.4 feet in 2020 to 3.1 feet in 2070 for the High scenario. Likely ranges (shading) become wider over the period shown. The range of likely values in 2070 for each of the five scenarios are as follows: Low scenario, from 0.9 to 1.4 feet; Intermediate-Low, 1.2 to 1.7 feet; Intermediate, 1.5 to 2.2 feet; Intermediate-High, 1.8 to 3.1 feet; and High, 2.4 to 3.8 feet.
Panel B: New Jersey
All historical and future scenario lines show increases higher than those in the contiguous US graph. Tide gauge values range from a minimum of negative 0.5 feet in 1976 to a maximum of positive 0.7 feet in 2024. Satellite values range from a minimum of 0.0 feet in 1994 to a maximum of 0.5 feet in 2024. Projected sea level median values (lines) for the Low scenario range from 0.4 feet in 2020 to 1.6 feet in 2070, compared to 0.5 feet in 2020 to 3.5 feet in 2070 for the High scenario. Likely ranges (shading) become wider over the period shown. The range of likely values in 2070 for each of the five scenarios are as follows: Low scenario, from 1.3 to 1.9 feet; Intermediate-Low, 1.6 to 2.3 feet; Intermediate, 1.9 to 2.7 feet; Intermediate-High, 2.2 to 3.5 feet; and High, 2.7 to 4.2 feet.
Sea level rise has caused an increase in high-tide floods associated with nuisance-level impacts, which are occurring more frequently, even on sunny days. High-tide flooding occurs when one or more factors—sea level rise, winds, changes in ocean currents, full or new moons—push water levels above the normal high-tide mark. These events can damage infrastructure, cause road closures, and overwhelm storm drains. High-tide flooding has increased in all US coastal areas, with more rapid increases along the East and Gulf Coasts, and is likely to occur more frequently in New Jersey as global and local sea levels continue to rise. The number of high-tide flood days has increased at Atlantic City, with the greatest number occurring in 2023. Under both the Intermediate-Low and Intermediate scenarios, high-tide floods are projected to occur much more frequently in future years (Figure 8).
Graph of the observed and projected annual number of high-tide flood days at Atlantic City, New Jersey, from 1923 to 2100 (top), including a magnified view of the observed data for the period 1923 to 2024 (bottom), as described in the caption.
A legend shows annual observations (orange bars) and projected 19-year averages (two-colored bars) for the Intermediate-Low (medium blue) and Intermediate (dark blue) sea level scenarios.
Bottom
Y-axis labels for the magnified view range from 0 to 20 days per year. Following the first recorded event in 1930 until the mid-1990s, tidal flooding was sporadic, often with gaps of 1 to 3 years between events and annual values mostly below 4 days. Starting in 1995, high-tide flood days occurred every year (no data were recorded for 2001), with a record high of 26 days in 2023.
Top
Y-axis labels range from 0 to 350 days, with a horizontal dashed gray line indicating 365 days. Atlantic City is projected to experience 95 to 110 high-tide flood days per year by 2050 under the Intermediate-Low and Intermediate scenarios, respectively, and 325 to 365 days by 2100.
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