New Mexico encompasses a large geographic area of diverse environments, including mountain ranges, forests, grasslands, and deserts. Temperatures vary widely across the state due to variations in topography. Typical summer high temperatures range from the high 70s (°F) at high elevations to more than 95°F in the Chihuahuan Desert (1991–2020 averages), although temperatures of more than 100°F are common in areas below 5,000 feet. In winter, below-freezing temperatures are common across the state, with average lows ranging from less than 20°F in many mountain locations to around 30°F in the southern and central valleys. Much of the state is characterized as arid or semiarid, with most areas in the central and west receiving less than 15 inches of precipitation each year. Annual precipitation ranges from less than 10 inches in the southern desert and the Rio Grande and San Juan Valleys to more than 30 inches at some high-elevation locations. Typical annual snowfall totals range from less than 5 inches in the southern deserts and plains to well over 100 inches in the northern mountains.
Time series of observed and projected temperature change (in degrees Fahrenheit) for New Mexico from 1900 to 2100 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from negative 4 to positive 18 degrees. Observed annual temperatures from 1900 to 2024 show variability and range from negative 2.0 to positive 3.6 degrees. By the end of the century, projected increases in temperature range from 2.1 to 6.8 degrees under the lower emissions pathway, from 4.3 to 10.1 degrees under the intermediate pathway, and from 8.4 to 17.5 degrees under the higher pathway.
Annual average temperatures in New Mexico have increased almost 2.5°F since the beginning of the 20th century (Figure 1). The last 25 years (2000–2024) have been the warmest period on record for the state, with temperatures rising by about 0.7°F per decade since 1970. Since the late 1960s, much of the state has also seen increases in the number of extremely hot days (Figure 2a), most significantly in the eastern plains. This warming trend is also apparent in an increase in the number of warm nights since the late 1980s (Figure 2b). The number of very cold nights has generally been near or below average since the late 1990s, indicative of recent winter warming in the region (Figure 3). While the recent trend is toward fewer very cold nights, a historic cold wave affected the state during February 9–18, 2021. In the eastern plains, temperatures remained below freezing for seven consecutive days and fell below –10°F in a few locations, with the coldest temperature being –17°F at Lake Maloya. The extreme cold temperatures, heavy snow (more than 10 inches in numerous locations), severe icing, and accompanying power outages caused catastrophic damage.
Graph of the observed annual number of (a) extremely hot days and (b) warm nights for New Mexico from 1900 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Panel A: Extremely Hot Days
Y-axis values range from 0 to 40 days. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0.7 to 37.4 days. Five-year values also show variability. The 1900 to 1904 period is above the long-term average of 13.7 days, but 5-year values are all below average between 1905 and 1989 except for the 1930 to 1934 and 1950 to 1954 periods. An upward trend is evident since the 1965 to 1969 period. Since 1990, 5-year values are all near or above average. The 1965 to 1969 period has the lowest 5-year value at 6.7 days, and the 1900 to 1904 and 2020 to 2024 periods have the highest at 23.8 and 27.7 days, respectively.
Panel B: Warm NightsY-axis values range from 0 to 36 nights. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0.5 to 33.1 nights. Five-year values also show variability and are all below the long-term average of 6.1 nights between 1900 and 1989. An upward trend is evident since the 1975 to 1979 period. All 5-year values since 1990 are above average. The 1975 to 1979 period has the lowest 5-year value at 2.4 nights, and the 2020 to 2024 period has the highest at 22.0 nights.
Graph of the observed annual number of very cold nights for New Mexico from 1900 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from 0 to 12 nights. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0 to 10.6 nights. Five-year values also show variability and are below the long-term average of 4.7 nights between 1900 and 1919, all near or above average between 1910 and 1939, all below average between 1940 and 1969 except for the 1960 to 1964 period, and all above average between 1970 and 1994. Since 1995, 5-year values are all below average except for the 2005 to 2009 and 2010 to 2014 periods. The 1900 to 1904 period has the lowest 5-year value at 0.0 nights, and the 1975 to 1979 period has the highest at 8.1 nights.
Precipitation is highly variable from year to year and decade to decade. Statewide total annual precipitation has ranged from a low of 6.6 inches in 1956 to a high of 26.6 inches in 1941 (Figure 4). There is no clear long-term trend in annual precipitation, although values have generally been near or below average since the early 2000s. Unlike many areas of the United States, New Mexico has not experienced an upward trend in the frequency of extreme precipitation events (Figure 5). The number of 1-inch extreme precipitation events has been variable over the period of record (1895–2024), fluctuating in a fashion similar to the variations in total annual precipitation.
Graph of the observed total annual precipitation for New Mexico from 1895 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from 4 to 28 inches. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 6.6 to 26.6 inches. Five-year values also show variability and are mostly near or above the long-term average of 13.9 inches between 1895 and 1944, all below average between 1945 and 1964, and mostly near or above average between 1965 and 1999. Since 2000, 5-year values are all below average except for the 2005 to 2009 and 2015 to 2019 periods. The 1950 to 1954 period has the lowest 5-year value at 10.6 inches, and the 1940 to 1944, 1985 to 1989, 1990 to 1994 periods have the highest at 16.2, 16.0, and 15.8 inches, respectively.
Graph of the observed annual number of 1-inch extreme precipitation events for New Mexico from 1900 to 2024.
Y-axis values range from 0 to 6 events. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0.3 to 5.2 events. Five-year values also show variability and are above the long-term average of 1.7 events between 1900 and 1909, all near or below average between 1910 and 1979 except for the 1915 to 1919 and 1940 to 1944 periods, and all near or above average between 1980 and 2004. Since 2005, 5-year values are all below average except for the 2015 to 2019 period. The 1950 to 1954 period has the lowest 5-year value at 1.1 events, and the 1915 to 1919 and 2015 to 2019 periods have the highest at 2.26 and 2.27 events, respectively.
An important feature of New Mexico’s summer climate is the North American Monsoon, which can start in late June and extend into September. Monsoon-season precipitation varies from year to year, and 5-year averages also show fluctuations over the period of record with no clear long-term trend (Figure 6). July and August are the wettest months across much of the state, with the majority of rainfall produced by brief but intense thunderstorms. In some parts of the state, monsoon rainfall accounts for about half of the annual precipitation and plays an important role in supporting the agricultural economy and ecological systems, as well as replenishing groundwater aquifers, rivers, and reservoirs. The monsoon rains are generally highly beneficial but can occasionally be destructive. In 2006, a remarkably persistent monsoon regime was in place from late July through most of August and caused significant damage and flooding in southern New Mexico. Monsoon-related flooding was seen again in 2013, when a single very wet week in September caused major flooding across the central and western portions of the state. These events provided much-needed water for the reservoirs but also caused widespread damage. In October 2024, a powerful storm brought heavy rainfall, causing flash flooding that killed two people and required the rescue of 300. Roswell recorded 5.8 inches of rain on October 19, making it the single wettest day since records began at that station in 1893. In July 2025, heavy monsoon rains fell on land that had burned the previous year. The Ruidoso River rose to record levels, causing flash flooding that damaged 200 homes and killed three people.
Graph of the observed total monsoon-season precipitation for New Mexico from 1895 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from 2 to 14 inches. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 3.9 to 12.5 inches. Five-year values also show variability and are mostly near or above the long-term average of 7.6 inches between 1895 and 1944, all below average between 1945 and 1964, and all near or above average between 1965 and 1999 except for the 1975 to 1979 period. Since 2000, 5-year values are all near or below average except for the 2005 to 2009 period. The 1950 to 1954 and 2000 to 2004 periods have the lowest 5-year values at 6.2 and 6.3 inches, respectively, and the 1965 to 1969, 1985 to 1989, and 1995 to 1999 periods have the highest at 8.7, 8.8, and 8.7 inches, respectively.
Despite contributions from the North American Monsoon, water is scarce across the state due to its arid climate, growing population, and low water-to-land ratio. New Mexico’s reservoirs are therefore vital for municipal water supplies, agriculture, recreation, and ecosystems. Multiyear periods of high and low precipitation have resulted in very large swings in reservoir levels. Levels in the Elephant Butte Reservoir were generally high from the 1920s to the 1940s before dropping until the 1980s, when they increased again. Levels remained high throughout the 1980s and 1990s until falling again in the first part of this century (Figure 7). These swings illustrate that there have been extended (decades-long) periods of unusually wet or dry conditions. Multiple droughts during the 2000s, including multiyear droughts from 2011–2015 and in the 2020s, have contributed to water storage levels remaining below 500,000 acre feet (approximately 25% of full capacity) for most of the last 25 years.
Monthly time series of the average water storage levels (in thousand acre feet) for the Elephant Butte Reservoir from March 1915 to December 2024 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from 0 to 2,500 thousand acre feet. Monthly values show wide variability and range from a low of 5.6 thousand acre feet in March 1915 to a high of 2,071 thousand acre feet in June 1942. Periods with low storage levels (generally below 500 thousand acre feet) occurred between 1915 and the early 1920s, between the late 1940s and early 1980s, and since the beginning of this century. Periods with high storage levels occurred between the mid-1920s and mid-1940s (generally ranging from about 300 to 1,750 thousand acre feet) and between the mid-1980s and late 1990s (generally ranging from about 1,000 to 2,000 acre feet).
The extended record indicates that droughts are a frequent occurrence in New Mexico and that episodes more severe than any in the recent historical record have occurred in the more distant past (Figure 8). Much of the state has experienced drought conditions throughout most of this century, which have negatively impacted communities and ecosystems across the state. For example, extreme drought in the Chihuahuan Desert has caused grasslands to die, decreasing grazing resources for livestock. More than half of the state suffered from exceptional drought—the US Drought Monitor's highest category of drought severity—for several months in 2021, and nearly all of the state was in severe drought for long stretches in 2022, 2023, and 2024. Drought also increases wildfire risk. In 2022, the Hermits Peak Fire became the largest wildfire on record in the state, burning more than 341,000 acres and destroying 700 structures.
Line graph of the New Mexico Palmer Drought Severity Index for the years 1000 to 2024.
Y-axis values are divided into dry and wet categories, ranging from 0 to negative 8 (dry) and 0 to positive 8 (wet). Annual values show variability and range from negative 6.5 to positive 7.7. Annual values for most years fall between negative 3 and positive 2, but values of negative 4 and positive 3 are common. The 20-year running average also shows variability, with values ranging from negative 1.9 to positive 1.4. Since the beginning of the modern era (red line), the running average is generally high in the positive range until the late 1920s, then fluctuates above and below 0 until dropping consistently below 0 in the early 1940s before rising again in the early 1970s. The running average shows a downward trend since the late 1990s, reaching a low of negative 1.9 in 2014.
Under the intermediate and higher emissions pathways, historically unprecedented warming is projected during this century (Figure 1). Even under the lower emissions pathway, most projections show annual average temperatures exceeding historical levels by the middle of the century. However, projections for all three pathways show a large range of potential temperature increases, and some projections for the lower pathway are comparable to recent observed values. Heat waves are projected to increase in intensity, posing a risk to human health, while cold wave intensity is projected to decrease.
Under the intermediate emissions pathway, projections indicate decreases in total annual precipitation by midcentury across most of New Mexico and increases along the northwestern border with Colorado and Arizona; however, the projected changes are not statistically significant (Figure 9). There is similar uncertainty in projections for seasonal precipitation, although models generally indicate both increases and decreases for all seasons. Decreases in spring precipitation, combined with higher temperatures, would have negative impacts on the mountain snowpack that feeds reservoirs and lead to reduced water flow to river basins that rely on snowpack for summer water supplies. Even if snowpack accumulation does not decrease, increasing temperatures will lead to an earlier start and end to the snowmelt season, potentially necessitating changes in water management.
Map of the contiguous United States showing the projected changes in total annual precipitation by the middle of this century as described in the caption. The state of New Mexico is outlined in black.
Legend values range from less than negative 10 to greater than positive 15 percent. Note: unless otherwise specified, projected values are not statistically significant.
New Mexico
The majority of New Mexico is projected to see decreases of up to 5 percent, except for the north-central and northwestern borders along Colorado and Arizona with projected increases of up to 5 percent.
Contiguous US
Projected increases in total annual precipitation are as follows: up to 5 percent for most of the Southeast, as well as the central Midwest, central Great Plains, central West, and Northwest; and 5 to 10 percent for all of the Northeast, as well as portions of the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, northern Midwest, northern Great Plains, and Pacific Northwest, with statistically significant increases in the 5 to 10 percent range for the Northeast, northeastern Midwest, and portions of the northern Great Plains and Pacific Northwest.
Projected decreases of up to 5 percent are expected across most of Texas, New Mexico, and Arizona, as well as southern California.
Higher temperatures are projected to increase the intensity of naturally occurring droughts, as well as reduce streamflow and soil moisture due to increasing evaporation rates from moist and vegetated surfaces. Such increases in drought severity are expected to further challenge limited agricultural resources and increase the occurrence and severity of wildfires and the frequency of dust storms.
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