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NOAA National Centers
for Environmental Information

State Climate Summaries 2022

NEVADA

Key Messages   Narrative   Downloads  

Hoover Dam
Image by condi316 from Pixabay

Key Message 1

Temperatures in Nevada have risen almost 2.4°F since the beginning of the 20th century. Under a higher emissions pathway, historically unprecedented warming is projected to continue through this century, with associated increases in heat wave intensity and decreases in cold wave intensity.

Key Message 2

Nevada is the driest state in the United States, and future projections of annual precipitation are uncertain. Increases in temperature are projected to lead to reductions in late winter and spring snowpack, with potential negative impacts to water supplies.

Key Message 3

Drought has been common since the beginning of this century. Higher temperatures will increase the rate of soil moisture loss during dry spells, increasing the intensity of future naturally occurring droughts. The frequency and severity of wildfires are projected to increase in Nevada and surrounding states.

Valley of Fire - Nevada
Photo by Mike Boening Photography
License: CC BY-NC-ND

NEVADA

Nevada is largely a dry state with a highly diverse climate due its large range of elevations: from less than 500 feet in the scorching lowland desert in the south to more than 13,000 feet in the cool mountain forests in the north. Las Vegas is one of the hottest cities in the United States, with summer high temperatures averaging 102°F and regularly exceeding 110°F (an average of about 9 days per year reach 110°F or higher). Much of the state lies within the Great Basin, a region between the Rockies and the Sierra Nevada, encompassing numerous small mountain ranges and high-elevation desert valleys. Nevada is located on the eastern side of the Sierra Nevada, which blocks much of the moisture from the Pacific Ocean from reaching the state. Due to the climate and rugged mountainous terrain, much of the land is sparsely populated. The majority of residents live in two concentrated urban areas, the Las Vegas and Reno-Sparks metro areas, which are supported by water from Lake Tahoe and the Colorado River, respectively. Nevada is the Nation’s driest state, with statewide annual average (1895–2020) precipitation only 10.2 inches. Regionally, annual average (1991–2020 normals) precipitation varies from 4 inches in some low elevation locations in the southwest to more than 50 inches on high mountain peaks of the Sierra Nevada.

   

Figure 1

Observed and Projected Temperature Change
Time series of observed and projected temperature change (in degrees Fahrenheit) for Nevada from 1900 to 2100 as described in the caption. Y-axis values range from minus 3.6 to positive 16.3 degrees. Observed annual temperature change from 1900 to 2020 shows variability and ranges from minus 2.0 to positive 3.8 degrees. By the end of the century, projected increases in temperature range from 2.2 to 9.1 degrees under the lower emissions pathway and from 6.5 to 15.3 degrees under the higher pathway.
Figure 1: Observed and projected changes (compared to the 1901–1960 average) in near-surface air temperature for Nevada. Observed data are for 1900–2020. Projected changes for 2006–2100 are from global climate models for two possible futures: one in which greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase (higher emissions) and another in which greenhouse gas emissions increase at a slower rate (lower emissions). Temperatures in Nevada (orange line) have risen almost 2.4°F since the beginning of the 20th century. Shading indicates the range of annual temperatures from the set of models. Observed temperatures are generally within the envelope of model simulations of the historical period (gray shading). Historically unprecedented warming is projected to continue through this century. Less warming is expected under a lower emissions future (the coldest end-of-century projections being about 2°F warmer than the historical average; green shading) and more warming under a higher emissions future (the hottest end-of-century projections being about 12°F warmer than the hottest year in the historical record; red shading). Sources: CISESS and NOAA NCEI.

Temperatures in Nevada have risen almost 2.4°F since the beginning of the 20th century (Figure 1). Over the last 26 years, the annual number of very hot days has been above average, with the highest 5-year average occurring during the 2015–2020 period (Figure 2), partly because of very high annual values in 2017, 2018, and 2020. In addition to a general daytime warming, Nevada has experienced an above average number of warm nights since 2000 (Figure 3). The state is one of the most urbanized in the Nation, with 94% of the population living in areas defined as urban. The urban heat island effect has likely exacerbated these warming trends in Las Vegas in particular, where explosive growth has taken place.

   
Observed Number of Very Hot Days
Graph of the observed annual number of very hot days for Nevada (top panel) from 1950 to 2020 and for the contiguous United States (CONUS, bottom panel) from 1900 to 2020 as described in the caption. Y-axis values range from 10 to 60 days for Nevada and from 5 to 40 for CONUS. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from about 15 to 54 for Nevada and about 7 to 35 days for CONUS. For Nevada, prior to 2000, multiyear values are mostly below the long-term average of 33, but since 2000, they are all above or well above the average. The 1980 to 1984 period has the lowest multiyear value and the 2015 to 2020 period has the highest. For CONUS, multiyear values show variability and are mostly above 15 days between 1900 and 1959, but they are mostly near or below 15 days since 1960. The 1990 to 1994 period has the lowest multiyear value and the 1930 to 1934 period the highest.
Figure 2: Observed annual number of very hot days (maximum temperature of 95°F or higher) for Nevada from 1950 to 2020. Dots show annual values. Bars show averages over 5-year periods (last bar is a 6-year average). The horizontal black line shows the long-term (entire period) average of 33 days (note that the average for individual reporting stations varies greatly because of the state’s large elevation range). Values for the contiguous United States (CONUS) from 1900 to 2020 are included to provide a longer and larger context. Long-term stations back to 1900 were not available for Nevada. Since 2000, the number of very hot days has been well above average, and the highest number occurred during the 2015 to 2020 period. Sources: CISESS and NOAA NCEI. Data: GHCN-Daily from 19 long-term stations.
   
Observed Number of Warm Nights
Graph of the observed annual number of warm nights for Nevada (top panel) from 1950 to 2020 and for the contiguous United States (CONUS, bottom panel) from 1900 to 2020 as described in the caption. Y-axis values range from 6 to 13 days for Nevada and from 10 to 30 for CONUS. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from about 7 to 12 nights for Nevada and from about 11 to 29 nights for CONUS. For Nevada, prior to 2000, multiyear values are all below the long-term average of 8.3 nights, but since 2000, they are all above or well above the average. The 1965 to 1969 period has the lowest multiyear value and the 2015 to 2020 period has the highest. For CONUS, there is no clear trend between 1900 and 1970; however, the 1930 to 1934 period had the second-highest multiyear value of about 24.5 nights. Since 1970, an upward trend is evident. The 2015 to 2020 period has the highest multiyear value of nearly 25 nights.
Figure 3: Observed annual number of warm nights (minimum temperature of 70°F or higher) for Nevada from 1950 to 2020. Dots show annual values. Bars show averages over 5-year periods (last bar is a 6-year average). The horizontal black line shows the long-term (entire period) average of 8.3 nights (note that the average for individual reporting stations varies greatly because of the state’s large elevation range). Values for the contiguous United States (CONUS) from 1900 to 2020 are included to provide a longer and larger context. Long-term stations back to 1900 were not available for Nevada. The number of warm nights has been above average since 2000, and the highest number occurred during the 2015 to 2020 period. Sources: CISESS and NOAA NCEI. Data: GHCN-Daily from 19 long-term stations.

After wet conditions in the late 1990s, total annual precipitation has been near or below average since 2000 but shows no overall trend across the 126-year period of record (Figure 4). Seasonal precipitation patterns vary across the state, with most locations receiving the majority of their precipitation during the winter months. However, eastern and southern areas, including Las Vegas, can experience intense summer rainfall from the North American Monsoon system.

   
Observed Annual Precipitation
Graph of the observed total annual precipitation for Nevada from 1895 to 2020 as described in the caption. Y-axis values range from 4 to 18 inches. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from about 6 to 18 inches. Multiyear values also show variability across the entire period. They are mostly near and below the long-term average of 10.2 inches. Exceptions include the 1905 to 1909, 1940 to 1944, 1980 to 1984, and 1995 to 1999 periods. The 1925 to 1929 period has the lowest multiyear value and the 1980 to 1984 period has the highest.
Figure 4: Observed total annual precipitation for Nevada from 1895 to 2020. Dots show annual values. Bars show averages over 5-year periods (last bar is a 6-year average). The horizontal black line shows the long-term (entire period) average of 10.2 inches. Five-year average total precipitation has ranged from 8.4 inches per year during 1958–1962 to 13.5 inches per year during 1980–1984. The early part of this century was below average, but the 2015 to 2020 period was near average. Sources: CISESS and NOAA NCEI. Data: nClimDiv.

Drought is a critical climate threat for this arid state (Figure 5). Since 2000, the Colorado River basin, the source of water for the southern part of the state, has experienced drought conditions, with impacts on Lake Mead. In addition, winter precipitation was well below average from the 2011–12 through the 2014–15 water years (October–September), and all of those years were abnormally warm. This led to a strain on water supplies in agricultural areas that rely on surface water. The majority of the counties in the state have been designated as natural disaster areas due to extreme drought conditions. Lake Mead, the largest man-made reservoir in the United States, provides water for southern Nevada, as well as Arizona, southern California, and northern Mexico. As of October 25, 2021, water storage in Lake Mead was at 34% capacity, and water levels have been dropping since 2000 (Figure 6). Due to aggressive conservation policies, metropolitan areas have been able to manage the reductions in water supplies. Parallel declines in snowpack have been observed over this same time period (Figure 7). Snowpack refills Lake Tahoe every spring, and lake levels slowly decrease throughout the year. Warm and/or dry years lead to low snowpack and associated decreases in the lake’s water levels. Since 1900, the lake has fallen below the natural rim 21 times (Figure 8).

   
Nevada Palmer Drought Severity Index
Line graph of the Nevada Palmer Drought Severity Index for the years 1000 to 2020 as described in the caption. Y-axis values are divided into dry and wet categories, ranging from 0 to minus 10 (dry) and 0 to positive 8 (wet). Annual values range from about minus 7 to positive 5.5. Values for most years fall between minus 4 and positive 3, but with 7 years reaching or exceeding about minus 6 and 8 years exceeding positive 4. The twenty-year running average also shows variability, with values generally ranging from about minus 1 to 1. However, values have been consistently below zero since 2002, with a downward trend reaching nearly minus 2 in the most recent years.
Figure 5: Time series of the Palmer Drought Severity Index for Nevada from the year 1000 to 2020. Values for 1895–2020 (red) are based on measured temperature and precipitation. Values prior to 1895 (blue) are estimated from indirect measures such as tree rings. The fluctuating black line is a running 20-year average. In the modern era, the wet periods of the early 1900s and the 1980s–1990s and the dry period of the 1950s are evident. The extended record indicates periodic occurrences of similar extended wet and dry periods. Sources: CISESS and NOAA NCEI. Data: nClimDiv and NADAv2.
   
Lake Mead Elevation at Hoover Dam
Line graph of annual average water levels for Lake Mead at Hoover Dam from 1938 to 2020 as described in the caption. Y-axis values range from 1,050 to 1,230 feet. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from a high of about 1,215 feet in the early 1980s to a low of about 1,080 feet in the late 2010s. Annual values fall mostly between 1,110 and 1,190 feet from the beginning of the period through the early 1970s and mostly between 1,170 and 1,210 feet from the late 1970s through the early 2000s. A steep downward trend is evident since the late 1990s, with values mostly below 1,120 since the late 2000s and a low of 1,077—two feet above the water allocation threshold—in 2016.
Figure 6: Time series of the annual average water level (blue line) of Lake Mead at Hoover Dam from 1938 to December 2020. Water levels in Lake Mead have varied widely over the years. Low levels in the 1950s and 1960s were due to drought and the filling of Lake Powell, respectively. Recent years have seen the lowest recorded levels since the original filling of Lake Mead. The red-dashed line indicates the threshold (1,075 feet) below which a federal shortage will be declared, resulting in reduced water allocations for Nevada and Arizona. Source: USBR.
   
April 1 Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) at Mt. Rose, NV
Line graph of the annual variations in the April 1 snow water equivalent (SWE) at Mount Rose, Nevada, from 1910 to 2020 as described in the caption. Y-axis values range from 0 to 90 inches. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from about 9 to 81 inches. Annual values are mostly between about 15 and 50 inches across the entire period, with occasional spikes above 50, including about 68 inches in 1952 and about 82 inches in 1969 and 2017. No data were recorded in 1993 and 1994.
Figure 7: Variations in the April 1 snow water equivalent (SWE) at the Mt. Rose, Nevada, snow survey site from 1910 to 2020. SWE, the amount of water contained within the snowpack, varies widely from year to year. Data is not available for 1993 and 1994. Recent years have seen some of the lowest and highest levels in snowpack depth. Source: NRCS NWCC.
   
Lake Tahoe Water Levels
Line graph of the annual maximum and minimum water levels for Lake Tahoe from 1900 to 2020 as described in the caption. Y-axis values range from 6,220 to 6,232 feet. Annual values show year-to-year variability, with annual maximums ranging from about 6,222 to about 6,231 feet and annual minimums ranging from about 6,220 to 6,228 feet. The maximum and minimum values follow a very similar annual pattern. From 1900 to about 1920, the maximum annual values fall mostly between 6,228 and 6,230, and the minimum annual values fall mostly between 6,226 and 6,228. From 1920 to 1936, there is a sharp decline, with the maximum values falling between about 6,224 and 6,227, and the minimum values falling between about 6,222 and 6,225. After 1936, there is a sharp increase in both values. From about 1940 to 1990, maximum values fall mostly between 6,226 and 6,229, and minimum values fall mostly between 6,225 and 6,227. After a sharp decline in the late 1980s and early 1990s, both maximum and minimum annual values show large variability through 2020, with the maximum values falling between 6,223 and 6,229 and the minimum values falling between about 6,222 and 6,227.
Figure 8: Time series of the annual maximum (blue line) and minimum (red line) water levels for Lake Tahoe (1900–2020). Ground-level lake elevation is 6,220 feet. The horizontal black line shows the natural rim elevation of 6,223 feet. A dam controlling outflow from the lake is 10 feet higher than the natural rim but by law spills at about 6,229 feet. Since 1900, the lake has fallen below the natural rim 21 times. Lake elevation in the early 1990s reached historically low levels. Source: USGS.

Since 2004, the state has received multiple federal disaster declarations for wildfire events. Following the national drought of 2012, western wildfires burned an estimated 9 million acres across 8 states, including Nevada, causing more than $1 billion in damages. In 1997 and 2005, severe flooding along the Truckee River caused extensive damages in Reno and the surrounding area. Summer monsoon rains frequently lead to disruptive flooding in the Las Vegas Valley.

Under a higher emissions pathway, historically unprecedented warming is projected to continue through this century (Figure 1). Even under a lower emissions pathway, annual average temperatures are projected to most likely exceed historical record levels by the middle of this century. However, a large range of temperature increases is projected under both pathways, and under the lower pathway, a few projections are only slightly warmer than historical records. Extreme high temperatures are projected to increase substantially, with potentially large impacts in the very hot southern deserts, particularly the Las Vegas metro area, where 70% of the state’s population resides. Extreme heat, combined with the urban heat island effect, will result in poor air quality and an increased risk of chronic respiratory conditions and heat stress.

Projected rising temperatures in Nevada will raise the snow line—the average lowest elevation at which snow falls. This will increase the likelihood that precipitation will fall as rain rather than snow, reducing water storage in the snowpack, particularly at those lower mountain elevations that are now on the margins of reliable snowpack accumulation. Higher spring temperatures will also result in earlier melting of the snowpack, further decreasing water availability during the already dry summer months.

Projections of annual precipitation for Nevada are uncertain throughout this century (Figure 9), but warmer temperatures are likely to decrease the amount of water in the mountain snowpack and increase the demand for water. Higher temperatures will also increase the evaporation rate, which will reduce streamflow and soil moisture. Thus, the intensity of future droughts is likely to increase, as will the risk of wildfires in some ecosystems. Increases in population and potentially decreased water flow from the Colorado River may lead to future water security issues across the state.

   
Projected Change in Annual Precipitation
Map of the contiguous United States showing the projected changes in total annual precipitation by the middle of this century as described in the caption. Values range from less than minus 20 to greater than positive 15 percent. Annual precipitation is projected to increase across the northern, central, and southeastern United States. Statistically significant increases are projected for central Wyoming and northern Colorado, the Midwest, Northeast, and Mid-Atlantic. The greatest decreases are projected for the Southwest United States and the Gulf region of Texas. The very southern tip of Nevada is projected to have a decrease of between minus 5 and minus 10 percent, the southern to central portion of the state is projected to have a decrease of 0 to minus 5 percent, and the northern portion is projected to have an increase of 0 to 5 percent.
Figure 9: Projected changes in total annual precipitation (%) for the middle of the 21st century compared to the late 20th century under a higher emissions pathway. Hatching represents areas where the majority of climate models indicate a statistically significant change. The projected changes in annual precipitation for Nevada are uncertain, similar to that across much of the Southwest. Sources: CISESS and NEMAC. Data: CMIP5.

Details on observations and projections are available on the Technical Details and Additional Information page.

Lead Authors
Jennifer Runkle, Cooperative Institute for Satellite Earth System Studies (CISESS)
Kenneth E. Kunkel, Cooperative Institute for Satellite Earth System Studies (CISESS)
Contributing Authors
Sarah M. Champion, Cooperative Institute for Satellite Earth System Studies (CISESS)
David R. Easterling, NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information
Stephanie A. McAfee, University of Nevada, Reno
Recommended Citation
Runkle, J., K.E. Kunkel, S.M. Champion, D.R. Easterling, and S.A. McAfee, 2022: Nevada State Climate Summary 2022. NOAA Technical Report NESDIS 150-NV. NOAA/NESDIS, Silver Spring, MD, 5 pp.

RESOURCES

  • Cooper, A., 2014: A relentless drought is forcing Las Vegas to take extreme measures. Newsweek, July 10, 2014. https://www.newsweek.com/2014/07/18/relentless-drought-forcing-las-vegas-take-extreme-measures-258092.html
  • Hayhoe, K., D.J. Wuebbles, D.R. Easterling, D.W. Fahey, S. Doherty, J. Kossin, W. Sweet, R. Vose, and M. Wehner, 2018: Our changing climate. In: Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II. Reidmiller, D.R., C.W. Avery, D.R. Easterling, K.E. Kunkel, K.L.M. Lewis, T.K. Maycock, and B.C. Stewart, Eds. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, 72–144. https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/chapter/2/
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