New York is regionally diverse, encompassing the Nation's most populous city, as well as large expanses of sparsely populated but ecologically and agriculturally important areas. The state's climate is heavily influenced by several geographic features. The Atlantic Ocean has a moderating effect on coastal areas, while the Great Lakes and Lake Champlain have a similar effect on the northwestern and northeastern parts of the state, respectively. During much of the year, the prevailing westerly flow brings air masses from the North American interior across the entire region, with occasional episodes of bitter cold during winter. The jet stream, which is often located near or over the region during winter, brings frequent storm systems that cause cloudy skies, windy conditions, and precipitation. Winter low temperatures range from the low to mid-20s (°F) in the Hudson Valley region to less than 10°F in some northern and higher-elevation portions of the state (1991–2020 averages). Summer high temperatures range from the low 70s in the far north to around 80°F in the southern part of the state, with higher values in New York City. Annual average precipitation varies regionally, with locations at lower elevations typically receiving 30–40 inches per year and mountainous areas often receiving more than 50 inches. The majority of New York also receives abundant snowfall, with western and southwestern slopes of the Adirondacks and areas east of Lakes Erie and Ontario often recording annual totals of over 150 inches.
Time series of observed and projected temperature change (in degrees Fahrenheit) for New York from 1900 to 2100 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from negative 4 to positive 20 degrees. Observed annual temperatures from 1900 to 2024 show variability and range from negative 3.3 to positive 4.5 degrees. By the end of the century, projected increases in temperature range from 2.7 to 9.4 degrees under the lower emissions pathway, from 5.0 to 11.5 degrees under the intermediate pathway, and from 9.5 to 18.7 degrees under the higher pathway.
Since the beginning of the 20th century, annual average temperatures in New York have increased more than 2.5°F, and temperatures in the 2000s have been higher than in any other historical period (Figure 1). The hottest year on record for New York was 2024, with a statewide average temperature of 49°F, which is 4°F above the long-term average of 45°F. This warming has been concentrated in the winter and spring, while summers have not warmed as much (Figures 2a and 2b). The number of very hot days has generally been below average since the 1960s (Figure 3a), but the state has experienced a small increase in the number of warm nights during that period (Figure 3b). The winter warming trend is reflected in a decrease in the number of very cold nights in recent decades (Figure 4). The increase in winter temperatures has also had an identifiable effect on Great Lakes ice cover. Since 1998, there have been several years when Lakes Erie and Ontario were mostly ice-free (Figure 5).
Two graphs of the observed (a) winter and (b) summer average temperatures for New York from (a) 1895–96 to 2023–24 and (b) 1895 to 2024, respectively, as described in the caption.
Panel A: Winter Average Temperature
Y-axis values range from 12 to 32 degrees Fahrenheit. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 13.9 to 30.7 degrees. Five-year values also show variability and are all below the long-term average of 22.3 degrees between 1895 and 1979 except for the 1930 to 1935 and 1950 to 1955 periods. All 5-year values since 1980 are near or above average. The 1900 to 1904 and 1975 to 1979 periods have the lowest 5-year values at 19.6 and 20.0 degrees, respectively, and the 2020 to 2024 period has the highest at 27.3 degrees.
Panel B: Summer Average Temperature
Y-axis values range from 60 to 72 degrees Fahrenheit. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 62.3 to 70.1 degrees. Five-year values also show variability and are above the long-term average of 66.2 degrees for the 1895 to 1899 period, all below average between 1900 and 1929, all above average between 1930 and 1959 except for the 1950 to1954 period, and all near or below average between 1960 and 1994. Since 1995, 5-year values are all near or above average. The 1925 to 1929 period has the lowest 5-year value at 64.5 degrees, and the 2020 to 2024 period has the highest at 68.0 degrees.
Two graphs of the observed annual number of (a) very hot days and (b) warm nights for New York from 1900 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Panel A: Very Hot Days
Y-axis values range from 0 to 6 days. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0 to 5.5 days. Five-year values also show variability and are below the long-term average of 0.9 days between 1900 and 1909, above average between 1910 and 1919, near or below average between 1920 and 1929, and all above average between 1930 and 1959. Since 1960, all 5-year values are below average. The 1970 to 1974 period has the lowest 5-year value at 0.1 days, and the 1930 to 1934 period has the highest at 2.4 days.
Panel B: Warm Nights
Y-axis values range from 0 to 8 nights. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0.4 to 7.3 nights. Five-year values also show variability and are mostly near or above the long-term average of 2.2 nights between 1900 and 1959 but are all near or below average between 1960 and 2004 except for the 1985 to 1989 period. Since 2005, all 5-year values are above average. The 1960 to 1964 period has the lowest 5-year value at 1.2 nights, and the 1900 to 1905 period has the highest at 3.5 nights.
Graph of the observed annual number of very cold nights for New York from 1900 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from 0 to 36 nights. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 3.3 to 31.9 nights. Five-year values also show variability and are all above the long-term average of 17.0 nights between 1900 and 1924, mostly below average between 1925 and 1954, and all above average between 1955 and 1989. All 5-year values since 1990 are below average except for the 2015 to 2019 period. The 2020 to 2024 period has the lowest 5-year value at 9.8 nights, and the 1960 to 1964 period has the highest at 22.8 nights.
Time series of the observed annual maximum ice cover extent (in percent) for Lakes Erie (top) and Ontario (bottom) from 1973 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Y-axis labels range from 0 to 100 percent for both graphs. Annual values show wide year-to-year variability for both lakes. For Lake Erie, annual values range from a high of 100 percent during 1978, 1979, and 1996 to a low of 5.4 percent in 1998. The lowest values have all occurred since 1998. For Lake Ontario, annual values range from a high of 86.2 percent in 1979 to a low of 1.9 percent in 2012. The lowest values have all occurred since 1998.
Statewide total annual precipitation has ranged from a low of 31.6 inches in 1964 to a high of 55.7 inches in 2011 (Figure 6). Annual precipitation has mostly been near or above average since the 1970s. Since the late 1990s, New York has generally seen an above-average number of 2-inch extreme precipitation events (Figure 7). The highest total annual precipitation record, set in 2011, was partially due to extreme precipitation events caused by Hurricane Irene and Tropical Storm Lee in late August and early September, respectively.
Graph of the observed total annual precipitation for New York from 1895 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from 28 to 60 inches. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 31.6 to 55.7 inches. Five-year values also show variability and are mostly below the long-term average of 41.0 inches between 1895 and 1969 but are mostly near or above average since 1970. The 1960 to 1964 period has the lowest 5-year value at 35.2 inches, and the 2005 to 2009 period has the highest at 46.1 inches.
Graph of the observed annual number of 2-inch extreme precipitation events for New York from 1900 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from 0.0 to 3.0 events. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0.1 to 2.4 events. Five-year values also show variability and are above the long-term average of 0.9 events for the 1900 to 1904 period, mostly below average between 1905 and 1994, and all above average since 1995. The 1960 to 1964 period has the lowest 5-year value at 0.46 events, and the 2010 to 2014 period has the highest at 1.5 events.
New York is often affected by extreme events including floods, droughts, heat waves, hurricanes, and snow and ice storms, as well as nor'easters—cold-season coastal storms that can generate a tremendous amount of precipitation (in the form of snow, sleet, or freezing rain), strong winds, coastal flooding, and damage to infrastructure. On July 10–11, 2024, much of the state was impacted by the remnants of tropical cyclone Beryl, which brought 10 tornadoes (including an EF2), hail, widespread rainfall totals of 3–5 inches, and destructive flash flooding. Over September1–2, 2021, the remnants of Hurricane Ida brought extremely heavy rainfall to southeastern New York, leading to catastrophic flash flooding that closed subways and roads. Rainfall totals ranged from 5 to 8 inches, with records set at Laguardia Airport (wettest day, at 6.80 inches of rain) and Central Park (wettest hour, at 3.15 inches). The storm caused 16 deaths in the state, including 11 people killed in their homes by flooding. In addition to causing inland flooding, hurricanes and tropical storms can cause coastal damage from storm surge and coastal flooding. In late October 2012, New York City was hit by Superstorm Sandy (a post-tropical storm), which was one of the most extreme and destructive events to affect the northeastern United States. Flooding from the massive storm surge inundated subway tunnels, damaged the electrical grid, overwhelmed sewage treatment plants, and destroyed thousands of homes. Sandy was fifth-costliest US disaster on record, causing tens of billions of dollars in damages in New York state alone, including an estimated $19 billion in damages to New York City. The number of landfalling Atlantic hurricanes is not expected to rise. However, rainfall rates from such storms, as well as the proportion of time they spend as major hurricanes, are projected to increase.
Nontropical systems can also bring extreme rainfall, such as during August 12–13, 2014, when the state set a new 24-hour precipitation record (13.6 inches) at Islip. Occasional droughts are a natural part of the state's climate but can have widespread impacts—increasing wildfire risk and affecting water supply, water quality, and recreation. New York experienced extreme drought (as defined by the US Drought Monitor) during 2016 and severe drought in 2001, 2002, and 2007, as well as for short periods during 2012, 2018, 2020, and 2022–2025. Drought events can also have major impacts on agriculture when they occur during the growing season.
Nor'easters and other winter storms occur frequently across the state due to the large temperature contrast between the cold interior of the North American continent and the warm, moist air of the western Atlantic. A major winter storm during January 28–29, 2022, brought widespread wind gusts of 40–50 mph and as much as 2 feet of snow to areas of Long Island, shutting down roads and train service. The Blizzard of 1996 (January 6–8) was a classic nor'easter, dropping more than 20 inches of snow in New York City and causing an estimated $70 million in damages across the state. During the Blizzard of 2016 (January 22–24) more than 30 inches of snow fell at Kennedy Airport, where near-blizzard conditions persisted for nine hours. The northern part of the state frequently experiences heavy lake-effect snows due to the warming and moistening of Arctic air masses as they pass over the Great Lakes. This results in intense bands of heavy snowfall over areas downwind of Lakes Ontario and Erie. From November 17 to 19, 2014, a lake-effect snowstorm delivered more than 5 feet of snow just east of Buffalo. A second lake-effect event immediately followed during November 19–20, dropping as much as an additional 4 feet of snow. From November 16 to 20, 2022, a major lake-effect snow event occurred east of Lake Erie, with multiple sites in Erie County recording snow totals of more than 3 feet and the greatest totals exceeding 6.5 feet. Later that year, a historic, multiday lake-effect blizzard occurred near Buffalo starting on December 23, with wind gusts above 70 mph and snowfall totals of 4–5 feet, prompting travel bans and airport closures. The Great Lakes can also experience flooding and erosion due to high water levels. Wet spring conditions contributed to record-high water levels and flooding in 2017 and 2019. Cleanup costs, infrastructure damages, and agricultural losses were in the millions of dollars.
Under the intermediate and higher emissions pathways, historically unprecedented warming is projected during this century (Figure 1). Even under the lower emissions pathway, most projections show annual average temperatures exceeding historical levels by the middle of the century. However, projections for all three pathways show a large range of potential temperature increases, and some projections for the lower pathway are comparable to recent observed values. While cold waves are projected to become less intense, heat waves are projected to become more intense. Extreme heat is a particular concern for New York City and other urban areas. Heat absorbed and emitted by buildings and pavement, as well as other aspects of urban environments, makes cities even warmer than the surrounding countryside, a phenomenon known as the urban heat island effect. High temperatures combined with high humidity can create dangerous heat index values.
Under the intermediate emissions pathway, statistically significant increases are projected in total annual precipitation and winter precipitation (Figure 8) across New York by midcentury. Statistically significant increases are also projected for spring precipitation across central and western parts of the state. There is uncertainty in projections for summer and fall precipitation. Increases in winter and spring precipitation could result in increased snowpack at higher elevations, but with rising temperatures, more of the precipitation is expected to fall as rain, particularly at lower elevations. In addition, the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events are projected to increase, potentially increasing the frequency and intensity of floods. Heavier winter and spring precipitation increases the risk of springtime flooding, posing a particular threat to New York's agricultural industry by delaying planting and resulting in yield losses.
Map of the contiguous United States showing the projected changes in total winter precipitation by the middle of this century as described in the caption. The state of New York is outlined in black.
Legend values range from less than negative 10 to greater than positive 15 percent. Note: unless otherwise specified, projected values are not statistically significant.
New York
The entire state of New York is projected to see statistically significant increases in total winter precipitation of 10 to 15 percent.
Contiguous US
Projected increases in total winter precipitation are as follows: up to 5 percent across a narrow swath running westward from western Georgia to southern California; 5 to 10 percent in the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, southern Midwest, portions of the Great Plains, and most of the West; and 10 to 15 percent in the majority of the Northeast and upper Midwest as well as portions of the northern Great Plains and Intermountain West, with statistically significant increases in the 10 to 15 percent range for the Northeast, the northernmost regions of the upper Midwest, and portions of the northern Great Plains.
Projected decreases are as follows: up to 5 percent for southern regions of the Southwest and northern and central Texas; 5 to 10 percent for southern New Mexico and western Texas; and 5 to 10 percent or greater for southwestern Texas.
Naturally occurring droughts are projected to increase in intensity due to higher temperatures and the associated increase in evaporation rates and soil moisture loss.
Like the northeastern US coast as a whole, New York is at considerable risk from sea level rise. On average, the state experienced about 7 inches of sea level rise between 1970 and 2020—compared to 6 inches for the contiguous US as a whole—and projections under the Intermediate sea level scenario show additional increases of about 11 inches by 2050 and 1.7 feet by 2070 (Figure 9). Across the five scenarios shown in Figure 9, the projected increases from 2020 to 2070 range from about 1 to 3.5 feet. Rising sea levels pose a threat to the state's coastal communities, infrastructure, and ecosystems. This is a particular concern for New York because of dense, high-value development along the coastline, especially in New York City.
Two time series of observed and projected relative sea level change for (a) the contiguous US and (b) New York from 1970 to 2070 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from negative 1 to positive 4 feet for both graphs. Legends in both graphs denote sources of historical data and scenarios for projections. Line colors for historical data are black for tide gauge data and orange for satellite data. Line and shading colors for projections based on five scenarios are as follows: light blue, Low; medium blue, Intermediate-Low; dark blue, Intermediate; yellow, Intermediate-High; and dark orange, High.
Panel A: Contiguous US
Tide gauge and satellite data generally show increases but with year-to-year variability. Projected data show increases under all scenarios. Tide gauge values range from a minimum of negative 0.3 feet in 1976 to a maximum of positive 0.4 feet in 2023. Satellite values range from a minimum of 0.0 feet in 1994 to a maximum of 0.4 feet in 2023. Projected sea level median values (lines) for the Low scenario range from 0.3 feet in 2020 to 1.1 feet in 2070, compared to 0.4 feet in 2020 to 3.1 feet in 2070 for the High scenario. Likely ranges (shading) become wider over the period shown. The range of likely values in 2070 for each of the five scenarios are as follows: Low scenario, from 0.9 to 1.4 feet; Intermediate-Low, 1.2 to 1.7 feet; Intermediate, 1.5 to 2.2 feet; Intermediate-High, 1.8 to 3.1 feet; and High, 2.4 to 3.8 feet.
Panel B: New York
All historical and future scenario lines show increases higher than those in the contiguous US graph. Tide gauge values range from a minimum of negative 0.4 feet in 1976 to a maximum of positive 0.6 feet in 2024. Satellite values range from a minimum of negative 0.1 feet in 1994 to a maximum of positive 0.5 feet in 2024. Projected sea level median values (lines) for the Low scenario range from 0.4 feet in 2020 to 1.4 feet in 2070, compared to 0.4 feet in 2020 to 3.2 feet in 2070 for the High scenario. Likely ranges (shading) become wider over the period shown. The range of likely values in 2070 for each of the five scenarios are as follows: Low scenario, from 1.1 to 1.8 feet; Intermediate-Low, 1.4 to 2.1 feet; Intermediate, 1.7 to 2.6 feet; Intermediate-High, 2.1 to 3.3 feet; and High, 2.5 to 3.9 feet.
Sea level rise has caused an increase in high-tide floods associated with nuisance-level impacts, which are occurring more frequently, even on sunny days. High-tide flooding occurs when one or more factors—sea level rise, winds, changes in ocean currents, full or new moons—push water levels above the normal high-tide mark. These events can damage infrastructure, cause road closures, and overwhelm storm drains. High-tide flooding has increased in all US coastal areas, with more rapid increases along the East and Gulf Coasts, and is likely to occur more frequently in New York as global and local sea levels continue to rise. The number of high-tide flood days has increased at the Battery (at the southern tip of Manhattan), with the greatest number occurring in 2023. Under both the Intermediate-Low and Intermediate scenarios, high-tide floods are projected to occur much more frequently in future years (Figure 10).
Graph of the observed and projected annual number of high-tide flood days at Battery Park, New York, from 1920 to 2100 (top), including a magnified view of the observed data for the period 1920 to 2024 (bottom), as described in the caption.
A legend shows annual observations (orange bars) and projected 19-year averages (two-colored bars) for the Intermediate-Low (medium blue) and Intermediate (dark blue) sea level scenarios.
Bottom
Y-axis labels for the magnified view range from 0 to 20 days per year. Following the first recorded event in 1930, high-tide flooding was sporadic until the 1950s, often with gaps of 1 to 3 years between events and annual values mostly below 4 days. Between the 1950s and early 2000s, high-tide flood days increased in frequency and number, and starting in 2004, high-tide flood days occurred every year, with a record high of 24 days in 2023.
Top
Y-axis labels range from 0 to 350 days, with a horizontal dashed gray line indicating 365 days. Battery Park is projected to experience 75 to 85 high-tide flood days per year by 2050 under the Intermediate-Low and Intermediate scenarios, respectively, and 290 to 360 days by 2100.
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