Oklahoma lies in the central Great Plains, straddling the transition from relatively abundant precipitation (more than 50 inches per year) in the east to semiarid conditions (less than 20 inches per year) in the west (1991–2020 averages). Due to its location in the interior of the United States and its distance from the moderating effects of any oceans, the state experiences a wide range of average daily temperatures, from the upper 30s (°F) to the mid 40s in the winter and the upper 70s to the low 80s in the summer. Extreme temperatures for the state range from 120°F, observed at four locations in the summer of 1936, to −31°F, observed in Nowata on February 10, 2011. Annual snowfall ranges from less than 2 inches in the extreme southeastern part of the state to more than 30 inches in the panhandle. Freezing rain is a regular occurrence in winter, particularly in central and eastern Oklahoma.
Time series of observed and projected temperature change (in degrees Fahrenheit) for Oklahoma from 1900 to 2100 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from negative 4 to positive 18 degrees. Observed annual temperatures from 1900 to 2024 show variability and range from negative 2.5 to positive 3.3 degrees. By the end of the century, projected increases in temperature range from 1.6 to 7.8 degrees under the lower emissions pathway, from 3.8 to 10.5 degrees under the intermediate pathway, and from 7.8 to 16.9 degrees under the higher pathway.
Since the beginning of the 20th century, annual average temperatures in Oklahoma have increased almost 1°F (Figure 1). This is less than half the warming of the contiguous US as a whole, but the state has warmed rapidly since the 1970s, and 2015–2024 was the warmest decade on record. Since the late 1990s, annual average temperatures have generally been higher than they were during the previous 40 years and have exceeded the levels seen during the 1950s and the 1930s Dust Bowl era, when poor land management and drought likely exacerbated the impacts of high summer temperatures. The hottest years on record were 2012 and 2024, both of which had an average temperature of 63.2°F, which was 3.3°F degrees higher than the long-term (1895–2024) average. The recent warming has been concentrated in the winter (Figure 2a) and spring, with temperatures being mostly above average since the 1990s and early 2000s, respectively. Fall temperatures have seen the largest upward trend since the 1990s and have been mostly above average over the last decade (2015–2024). While summer average temperatures were generally above the long-term average in the 2010s, which included the hottest summer on record (2011), they have not reached the consistently high levels experienced during the 1930s (Figure 2b), which is also true of much of the Great Plains and Midwest. The lack of summer warming is reflected in the absence of a clear trend in extremely hot days and extremely warm nights (Figures 3a and 3b). The winter warming trend is reflected in a generally below-average number of very cold nights since the 1990s (Figure 4). While the recent trend is toward fewer very cold nights, a historic cold wave affected the state during February 9–20, 2021. Temperatures remained below freezing for 10 consecutive days and fell to around –20°F in a few locations, with the lowest temperature being –21°F at Ralston. The extreme cold, heavy snow (more than 10 inches in many locations), and severe icing caused considerable impacts to infrastructure, utilities, agriculture, and human health.
Two graphs of the observed (a) winter and (b) summer average temperatures for Oklahoma from 1895–96 to 2023–24 and 1895 to 2024, respectively, as described in caption.
Panel A: Winter Average Temperature
Y-axis values range from 30 to 46 degrees Fahrenheit. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 31.3 to 43.7 degrees. Five-year values also show variability and are all near or below the long-term average of 39.1 degrees between 1895 and 1919, mostly near or above average between 1920 and 1959, and all below average between 1960 and 1989. Since 1990, 5-year values are all above average except for the 2010 to 2014 period. The 1975 to 1979 period has the lowest 5-year value at 36.2 degrees, and the 1950 to 1954 and 2020 to 2024 periods have the highest at 41.5 and 41.4 degrees, respectively.
Panel B: Summer Average Temperature
Y-axis values range from 74 to 88 degrees Fahrenheit. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 75.5 to 86.8 degrees. Five-year values also show variability and are all near or below the long-term average of 80.0 degrees between 1895 and 1929 except for the 1910 to 1914 period, all near or above average between 1930 and 1959 except for the 1945 to 1949 period, and all below average between 1960 and 2004 except for the 1980 to 1984 period. Since 2005, 5-year values are all near or above average. The 1905 to 1909 period has the lowest 5-year value at 78.6 degrees, and the 1930 to 1934, 1935 to 1939, and 2010 to 2014 periods have the highest at 81.7, 81.9, and 81.8 degrees, respectively.
Two graphs of the observed annual number of (a) extremely hot days and (b) extremely warm nights for Oklahoma from 1903 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Panel A: Extremely Hot Days
Y-axis values range from 0 to 80 days. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 1.0 to 66.8 days. Five-year values also show variability and are below the long-term average of 22.9 days between 1903 and 1909 but are mostly near or above average between 1910 and 1959. Since 1960, 5-year values are mostly below average with a few exceptions, including the 2000 to 2004, 2010 to 2014, and 2020 to 2024 periods. While the 1903 to 1904 period has the lowest 2-year value at 4.5 days, the 1965 to 1969 period has the lowest 5-year value at 13.1 days. The 1910 to 1914 and 1935 to 1939 periods have the highest 5-year values at 38.8 and 37.5 days, respectively.
Panel B: Extremely Warm Nights
Y-axis values range from 0 to 24 nights. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0 to 22.1 nights. Five-year values also show variability and are mostly below the long-term average of 1.3 nights across the entire period, with only the 2010 to 2014 period exceeding 4 nights due to the highest annual value in 2011 of 22.1 nights. While the 1903 to 1904 period has the lowest 2-year value at 0.0 nights, the 1905 to 1909 and 1915 to 1919 periods have the lowest 5-year values at 0.0 and 0.1 nights. The 2010 to 2014 period has the highest 5-year value at 6.2 nights.
Graph of the observed annual number of very cold nights for Oklahoma from 1903 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from 0 to 12 nights. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0 to 10.0 nights but are generally below 4 nights across the entire period. Five-year values also show variability and are mostly near or above the long-term average of 0.8 nights between 1903 and 1945 but are mostly below average since 1945. The 2000 to 2004 and 2005 to 2009 periods have the lowest 5-year values at 0.0 nights, and the 1905 to 1909 period has the highest at 4.0 nights and is the only 5-year period with a value above 2.0 nights due to a record-high annual value of 10.0 nights in 1905.
Statewide total annual precipitation is highly variable from year to year, ranging from a low of 20.3 inches in 1910 to a high of 53.7 inches in 2015 (Figure 5a). The majority of precipitation falls during the spring and summer months. Since the late 1980s, summer precipitation has generally been near or above average, except for the 2010–2014 period, which coincided with a notable multiyear drought (Figure 5b). The frequency of 2-inch extreme precipitation events has generally been above average since the late 1980s, with the highest number of events occurring in 2015 (Figure 6).
Two graphs of the observed total (a) annual and (b) summer precipitation for Oklahoma from 1895 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Panel A: Total Annual Precipitation
Y-axis values range from 16 to 56 inches. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 20.3 to 53.7 inches. Five-year values also show variability and are mostly near or below the long-term average of 34.0 inches between 1895 and 1984 but are all above average since 1985 except for the 2010 to 2014 period. The 1910 to 1914 period has the lowest 5-year value at 28.3 inches, and the 2015 to 2019 period has the highest at 41.9 inches.
Panel B: Total Summer Precipitation
Y-axis values range from 2 to 18 inches. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 2.8 to 17.2 inches. Five-year values also show variability and are mostly near or below the long-term average of 9.9 inches between 1895 and 1939, all near or above average between 1940 and 1964, and all below average between 1965 and 1984. Since 1985, 5-year values are all near or below average except for the 2010 to 2014 period. The 1980 to 1984 period has the lowest 5-year value at 7.4 inches, and the 1905 to 1909, 2005 to 2009, and 2015 to 2019 periods have the highest at 11.6, 12.0, and 11.7 inches, respectively.
Graph of the observed annual number of 2-inch extreme precipitation events for Oklahoma from 1900 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from 0 to 8 events. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0.3 to 6.6 events. Five-year values also show variability and are mostly near or below the long-term average of 2.4 events between 1895 and 1984 but are all above average since 1985 except for the 2010 to 2014 period. The 1910 to 1914 period has the lowest 5-year value at 1.5 events, and the 2015 to 2019 period has the highest at 4.0 events.
Severe thunderstorms are common in Oklahoma due to the state’s geographical location, which frequently allows cold, dry air from the north and west to clash with warm, moist air from the Gulf of America (formerly Gulf of Mexico). Thunderstorms occur about 55 days per year in eastern Oklahoma. In western Oklahoma, the number of days with thunderstorms ranges from around 45 per year in the southwest to almost 60 in the extreme western panhandle. These storms frequently produce tornadoes. From 1995 to 2024, Oklahoma averaged 69 tornadoes and 5 related fatalities per year. Tornadoes are most frequent during April and May. The state’s deadliest tornado occurred on April 9, 1947, killing more than 100 people and injuring more than 700. The largest tornado outbreak ever recorded in the state occurred on May 3, 1999, when multiple supercell thunderstorms spawned more than 70 tornadoes across Oklahoma, as well as portions of south-central Kansas and northern Texas. One of these tornadoes caused F4–F5 damage in Bridge Creek, Newcastle, Moore, and Oklahoma City, destroying 1,800 homes and causing 36 direct fatalities. On May 20, 2013, the same area was struck by another EF5 tornado, which killed 24 people and caused more than $2 billion in damages. Flash flooding was historically a concern in Oklahoma, particularly in the spring and fall, when heavy rainfall would often overwhelm creeks and streams. One of the worst floods in the state’s history occurred over May 26–27, 1984, when intense rainfall (up to 15 inches in an eight-hour period) led to disastrous flooding in the Tulsa metropolitan area. Although such flooding is still a threat in urban and suburban areas, where urban development and the removal of vegetation have increased runoff, flood prevention programs have greatly reduced the frequency and severity of such events in recent years.
Droughts are a frequent and severe hazard in Oklahoma (Figure 7). The prolonged decade-long drought of the 1930s and early 1940s, known as the Dust Bowl era, caused negative socioeconomic, environmental, and agricultural impacts and led to the emigration of nearly half a million Oklahomans. More recently, a notable drought occurred in 2011, when the state experienced its third-driest January–October on record, receiving only 19.4 inches of precipitation—more than 10 inches below the long-term average. By the end of August, 95% of Oklahoma was in extreme to exceptional drought—the US Drought Monitor's two highest categories of drought severity. In addition to causing devastating impacts on the agricultural economy, severe droughts also increase the risk of wildfires. In 2011, wildfires burned more than 132,000 acres in the state. One of the worst wildfire outbreaks in state history occurred in March 2025, when the combination of low humidity, strong winds, and dormant vegetation led to fires that lasted several days, burning 175,000 acres and destroying over 500 homes and businesses.
Line graph of the Oklahoma Palmer Drought Severity Index for the years 1000 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values are divided into dry and wet categories, ranging from 0 to negative 8 (dry) and 0 to positive 8 (wet). Annual values show variability and range from negative 6.3 to positive 5.5. Annual values for most years fall between negative 2 and positive 1, but values reaching negative 3 and positive 2 are common. The 20-year running average also shows variability, with values ranging from negative 2 to positive 1.5. Since the beginning of the modern era (red line), the running average is generally low in the negative range, fluctuating above and below 0 until the 1970s. Since then, the running average remains above 0, peaking in 1991 at positive 1.5 and dropping to positive 0.2 in 2014.
Under the intermediate and higher emissions pathways, historically unprecedented warming is projected during this century (Figure 1). Even under the lower emissions pathway, most projections show annual average temperatures exceeding historical levels by the middle of the century. However, projections for all three pathways show a large range of potential temperature increases, and some projections for the lower pathway are comparable to recent observed values. Heat wave intensity is projected to increase, while the intensity of cold waves is projected to decrease.
Under the intermediate emissions pathway, projections indicate increases in total annual precipitation across most of Oklahoma but decreases in the western part of the state by midcentury; however, the projected changes are not statistically significant (Figure 8). There is similar uncertainty in the projections for seasonal precipitation, although models generally indicate statewide increases in spring and decreases in summer. For fall and winter, models indicate both increases and decreases in precipitation. The frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events are also projected to increase, potentially increasing the frequency and intensity of floods.
Map of the contiguous United States showing the projected changes in total annual precipitation by the middle of this century as described in the caption. The state of Oklahoma is outlined in black.
Legend values range from less than negative 10 to greater than positive 15 percent. Note: unless otherwise specified, projected values are not statistically significant.
Oklahoma
Central and eastern Oklahoma are projected to see increases in total annual precipitation of up to 5 percent, while decreases of up to 5 percent are expected in the panhandle and southwest region.
Contiguous US
Projected increases in total annual precipitation are as follows: up to 5 percent for most of the Southeast, as well as the central Midwest, central Great Plains, central West, and Northwest; and 5 to 10 percent for all of the Northeast, as well as portions of the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, northern Midwest, northern Great Plains, and Pacific Northwest, with statistically significant increases in the 5 to 10 percent range for the Northeast, northeastern Midwest, and portions of the northern Great Plains and Pacific Northwest.
Projected decreases of up to 5 percent are expected across most of Texas, New Mexico, and Arizona, as well as southern California.
Droughts, a natural part of Oklahoma’s climate, are projected to increase in intensity due to higher temperatures and the associated increase in evaporation rates and soil moisture loss. The combination of rising temperatures and worsening drought conditions is also expected to increase wildfire risk.
SOURCES
- Kunkel, K.E., L.E. Stevens, S.E. Stevens, L. Sun, E. Janssen, D. Wuebbles, M.C. Kruk, D.P. Thomas, M.D. Shulski, N.A. Umphlett, K.G. Hubbard, K. Robbins, L. Romolo, A. Akyuz, T.B. Pathak, T.R. Bergantino, and J.G. Dobson, 2013: Regional Climate Trends and Scenarios for the U.S. National Climate Assessment Part 4. Climate of the U.S. Great Plains. NOAA Technical Report NESDIS 142-4. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service, Washington, DC, 91 pp. https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/56809
- Mesonet, 2025: Devastating wildfires steal March headlines. The Oklahoma Mesonet. https://www.mesonet.org/news/devastating-wildfires-steal-march-headlines
- NCDC, n.d.: Climate of Oklahoma. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, NC, 7 pp. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/climate-normals-deprecated/access/clim60/states/Clim_OK_01.pdf
- NCEI, n.d.: Climate at a Glance. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Centers for Environmental Information, accessed July 25, 2025. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/
- NCEI, n.d.: Monthly Drought Report—August 2011. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Centers for Environmental Information, accessed July 25, 2025. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/drought/201108
- NCEI, n.d.: National Climate Report. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Centers for Environmental Information, accessed July 25, 2025. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/national
- NCEI, n.d.: State Climate Extremes Committee (SCEC) Records—Oklahoma. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Centers for Environmental Information, accessed July 25, 2025. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/scec/records/ok/all
- NCEI, n.d.: Storm Events Database. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Centers for Environmental Information, accessed July 25, 2025. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/stormevents/
- NCEI, n.d.: U.S. Climate Normals. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Centers for Environmental Information, accessed July 25, 2025. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/us-climate-normals
- NCEI, n.d.: U.S. Tornadoes. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Centers for Environmental Information, accessed July 25, 2025. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/
- NDMC, n.d.: U.S. Drought Monitor: Data Tables. National Drought Mitigation Center, Lincoln, NE, accessed July 25, 2025. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspx
- NWS, n.d.: The Great Plains Tornado Outbreak of May 3–4, 1999. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administation, National Weather Service, Norman Weather Forecast Office, Norman, OK, accessed July 25, 2025. https://www.weather.gov/oun/events-19990503
- NWS, n.d.: Storm Prediction Center: Severe Weather Maps, Graphics, and Data Page. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service, Storm Prediction Center, Norman, OK, accessed July 25, 2025. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/
- NWS, n.d.: The Tornado Outbreak of May 20, 2013. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service, Norman Weather Forecast Office, Norman, OK, accessed July 25, 2025. https://www.weather.gov/oun/events-20130520
- OCS, n.d.: Climate of Oklahoma. Oklahoma Climatological Survey, Norman, OK, accessed July 25, 2025. https://www.ou.edu/ocs/oklahoma-climate
- Painter, B., 2012: Oklahoma Forestry Services battled 1,745 fires in 2011. The Oklahoman, January 20, 2012. https://www.oklahoman.com/story/news/2012/01/20/oklahoma-forestry-services-battled-1745-fires-in-2011/61103275007/
- Parrish, A., 2023: Climate migrants of the 1930’s Dust Bowl. Library of Congress Blogs, December 1, 2023. https://blogs.loc.gov/maps/2023/12/climate-migrants-of-the-1930s-dust-bowl/
- USGCRP, 2017: Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I. Wuebbles, D.J., D.W. Fahey, K.A. Hibbard, D.J. Dokken, B.C. Stewart, and T.K. Maycock, Eds. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA, 470 pp. https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/19486
- USGCRP, 2018: Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II. Reidmiller, D.R., C.W. Avery, D.R. Easterling, K.E. Kunkel, K.L.M. Lewis, T.K. Maycock, and B.C. Stewart, Eds. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA, 1515 pp. https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/19487
- USGCRP, 2023: Fifth National Climate Assessment. Crimmins, A.R., C.W. Avery, D.R. Easterling, K.E. Kunkel, B.C. Stewart, and T.K. Maycock, Eds. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA. https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/61592