Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands are located in the subtropical Caribbean region. Puerto Rico comprises the main island and several smaller nearby islands, including Vieques, Culebra, Isla de Mona, Caja de Muertos, and Isla Desecheo. The major islands of the US Virgin Islands are Saint Croix, Saint Thomas, and Saint John. Large geographical differences in temperature occur across the islands due to varied elevations. Surrounded by ocean on all sides, the islands experience warm and humid tropical conditions with minimal temperature variations between seasons. The temperate climate of San Juan, Puerto Rico, typifies the tropical conditions of these islands. July and August are the warmest months, with average minimum and maximum temperatures of around 77°F and 89°F, respectively (1991–2020 averages). January is the coolest month, with minimum and maximum averages of 72°F and 83°F. Temperatures are notably lower at higher elevations, with the mountains typically being 15°F cooler than the coast in the summer.
Precipitation across Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands varies throughout the year. A distinct dry season lasts from December to March. The wet season is characterized by an early rainy season (April–May), a drier midsummer period (June–July), and a late rainy season (August–November). On the main island of Puerto Rico, the east-to-west positioning of the Cordillera Central, where the highest elevation is 4,390 feet, provides a natural divide that separates the island into two climatologically distinct regions. The northern two-thirds of Puerto Rico has a mostly humid climate, and the southern portion has a drier, semiarid climate, driven by persistent northeasterly trade winds. Annual rainfall ranges from less than 35 inches along the southern coast to more than 80 inches in the interior mountains, peaking at more than 100 inches in El Yunque National Forest (1991–2020 averages). Peak elevations are lower in the US Virgin Islands (the highest point is 1,555 feet, on St. Thomas), but topographic effects on precipitation still occur, with the eastern and northern (windward) slopes being wetter than the western and southern (leeward) slopes. Annual rainfall totals are around 40–45 inches on Saint Thomas and Saint John and range from around 35 to almost 60 inches per year on Saint Croix.
Time series of observed and projected temperature change (in degrees Fahrenheit) for Puerto Rico from 1950 to 2100 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from negative 2 to positive 10 degrees. Observed annual temperatures from 1900 to 2024 show variability and range from negative 1.0 to positive 2.5 degrees. By the end of the century, projected increases in temperature range from 1.3 to 4.1 degrees under the lower emissions pathway, from 2.7 to 5.8 degrees under the intermediate pathway, and from 4.8 to 9.7 degrees under the higher pathway.
The US Caribbean has warmed since the mid-20th century. Annual average temperatures in Puerto Rico have risen almost 2°F since 1950 (Figure 1). While observational data for the US Virgin Islands is more limited, climate reanalysis (the integration of weather models with historical observations) indicates a temperature increase of more than 1°F over that same period. The average surface temperature of the surrounding ocean area, which is an essential regulator on temperatures in Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands, has risen by more than 2°F since the start of the 20th century (Figure 2). The number of very hot days in Puerto Rico does not exhibit any long-term trend (Figure 3a). Extremely warm nights in Puerto Rico have generally been increasing since the late 1990s, with all but one year over the last decade experiencing above-average values (Figure 3b). The urban heat island effect—heat absorbed and emitted by buildings and pavement, as well as other aspects of urban environments, makes cities even warmer than the surrounding countryside—has caused temperatures to rise faster in San Juan than across the rest of the islands. San Juan experienced its warmest year on record in 2024—including a record 45 consecutive days with temperatures exceeding 90ºF.
Line graph of the change in annual average sea surface temperature (in degrees Fahrenheit) from 1900 to 2024 for the region surrounding Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from negative 2.5 to positive 3.0 degrees. After a sharp downward trend during the early 1900s, there has been an obvious warming trend since the mid-1900s. The highest temperature was recorded in 2024, at 2.6 degrees above the 1951–1980 average, and values have been consistently above average since 2001.
Two graphs of the observed annual number of (a) very hot days and (b) extremely warm nights for Puerto Rico from 1950 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Panel A: Very Hot Days
Y-axis values for very hot days range from 0 to 28 days. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0.8 to 23.1 days. Five-year values also show variability and are above the long-term average of 4.7 days between 1950 and 1959, all near or below average between 1960 and 2019 except for the 1980 to 1985 period, and above average for the 2020 to 2024 period. The 1975 to 1979, 1985 to 1989, and 2000 to 2004 periods have the lowest 5-year values at 1.9, 2.1, and 2.2 days, respectively, and the 1950 to 1954 and 1980 to 1984 periods have the highest at 12.8 and 10.3 days, respectively.
Panel B: Extremely Warm Nights
Y-axis values for extremely warm nights range from 0 to 28 nights. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0.3 to 23.4 nights. Five-year values also show variability and are all below the long-term average of 5.4 nights between 1950 to 2004 except for the 1955 to 1959, 1960 to 1969, and 1980 to 1984 periods. Since 2005, 5-year values are all above average and showing an upward trend. The 1965 to 1969, 1985 to 1989, and 2000 to 2004 periods have the lowest 5-year values at 2.3, 2.8, and 3.0 nights, respectively, and the 2010 to 2014, 2015 to 2019, and 2020 to 2024 periods have the highest at 6.8, 10.5, and 13.0 nights, respectively.
Much of the rainfall in the wet season derives from tropical cyclones (hurricanes and tropical storms) and easterly waves (westward-moving troughs of low pressure embedded in the tropical easterly winds), with daytime heating, sea breezes, and orographic enhancement (the increase of rainfall with elevation on the upwind side of mountain ranges) often triggering local thunderstorm activity. In the dry season, rainfall is caused by cold fronts moving from west to east. Total annual precipitation in Puerto Rico varies from year to year and has been mostly near or above average since 2003 (Figure 4). Drought is a concern in Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands, which have both experienced several drought events since 1950. From 2014 to 2016, a prolonged period of drought in the US Caribbean resulted in more than $14 million in agricultural losses and led to the implementation of severe water restrictions that affected over a million people. Water rationing measures were again implemented in 2020 due to severe drought (as defined by the US Drought Monitor) that affected 60% of Puerto Rico; conditions were even drier on the islands of Saint Croix and Saint John, which experienced extreme drought (the second-highest level of intensity). In the summer of 2023, most of the US Virgin Islands experienced exceptional drought (the highest level), with impacts on crops and livestock.
Graph of the observed total annual precipitation for Puerto Rico from 1950 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from 40 to 100 inches. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 46.5 to 94.5 inches. Five-year values also show variability and are all above the long-term average of 67.1 inches between 1950 and 1969 except for the 1955 to 1959 period, all near or below average between 1970 and 2004, and all above average since 2005. The 1990 to 1994 period has the lowest 5-year value at 56.6 inches, and the 2010 to 2014 and 2020 to 2024 periods have the highest at 74.6 and 73.0 inches, respectively.
Extreme precipitation in Puerto Rico has shown no clear long-term trend since the 1950s; however, the number of 3-inch extreme precipitation events has mostly been near or above average since the late 1990s (Figure 5). Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands can sometimes experience extended periods of heavy rainfall and flooding unassociated with a tropical cyclone. The "Three Kings Day Floods" on January 5–6, 1992, occurred when heavy rainfall fell across interior and southern portions of Puerto Rico, with over 20 inches recorded in some locations, resulting in 23 fatalities. More recently, several locations across Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands recorded two to four times their normal rainfall from mid-May through mid-June 2011. Significant flooding occurred across Puerto Rico, with the exception of the southwest portion of the main island. Major flooding was also reported in Saint Croix, US Virgin Islands, where weekly rainfall totals were on the order of 6 to 7 inches.
Graph of the observed annual number of 3-inch extreme precipitation events for Puerto Rico from 1950 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from 0 to 6 events. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0.2 to 4.8 events. Five-year values also show variability and are mostly near or below the long-term average of 1.7 events between 1950 and 1999 but are all above average since 2000 except for the 2015 to 2019 period. The 1990 to 1994 period has the lowest 5-year value at 1.1 events, and the 2000 to 2004 and 2010 to 2014 periods have the highest at 2.2 and 2.3 events, respectively.
Tropical cyclone events (hurricanes, tropical storms, and tropical depressions) are an important concern for the islands due to their position in the Caribbean hurricane belt. Since the beginning of the 20th century, Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands have been affected by 120 tropical cyclones, including 45 hurricanes (Figure 6), many of which had devastating impacts. Hurricane Maria was one of the deadliest hurricanes to make landfall in the region, killing 2,975 people in Puerto Rico and 3 in the US Virgin Islands. The Category 4 storm occurred in September 2017 and caused widespread destruction across the islands, which were still recovering from Hurricane Irma two weeks earlier. Most residents lost power for months in what is still the longest electric power outage in American history. Maria is the fourth-costliest hurricane in US history, with an estimated $90 billion in total damages across the islands. The deadliest hurricane in Puerto Rico's history was the 1899 San Ciriaco hurricane, which resulted in over 3,300 deaths. In addition, a quarter of residents were left homeless, and more than $200 million in coffee production was destroyed. In the late 20th century, Hurricane Hugo in 1989, Hurricane Marilyn in 1995, and Hurricane Georges in 1998 all caused catastrophic damage to the islands. Hurricane Lenny in 1999, the second-most-powerful November hurricane of the satellite era, passed just to the south of the US Virgin Islands while at peak intensity, causing more than $300 million in damages in Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands. It was characterized by an unusual west-to-east track through the Caribbean. Earlier storms of note are the San Felipe Segundo hurricane of 1928 and the San Ciprián hurricane of 1932. More recent notable storms include Tropical Storm Jeanne in 2004, Hurricane Irene in 2011, and Hurricane Fiona in 2022. Fiona's excessive rainfall led to catastrophic flash flooding in central and southern portions of Puerto Rico and again caused power outages across the entire island. Although Hurricane Ernesto (2024) did not make landfall in Puerto Rico or the US Virgin Islands, the storm brought heavy rain and hurricane-force winds that destroyed crops, damaged roadways, and knocked out power to more than 1 million households across the islands.
Graph of the total number of hurricane events for Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands from 1900 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from 0 to 8 events. Five-year totals show variability and range from 0 to 7 events. Hurricanes have occurred during most 5-year periods, with the total number of events generally at 3 or below. The 1930 to 1934 and 1995 to 1999 period had the highest number of events at 5 and 7, respectively. Five-year periods during which no events occurred are 1900 to 1904, 1935 to 1939, 1970 to 1974, 1980 to 1984, and 1990 to 1994.
Under the intermediate and higher emissions pathways, historically unprecedented warming is projected during this century for Puerto Rico (Figure 1). Even under the lower emissions pathway, most projections show annual average temperatures exceeding historical record levels by the middle of this century. However, projections for all three pathways show a large range of potential temperature increases, and some projections for the lower pathway are comparable to recent observed values. Projected temperature increases for the US Virgin Islands are of a similar magnitude. Increases in the number of extremely hot days and warm nights are projected to accompany the overall warming.
Under the intermediate emissions pathway, projections indicate decreases in total annual precipitation by midcentury for Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands; however, these changes are not statistically significant (Figure 7). There is similar uncertainty in projections for seasonal precipitation, although models generally indicate decreases across most or all of the Eastern and Southern Caribbean for spring, summer, and fall and increases across the region for winter. With changing seasonal precipitation patterns, the islands are expected to experience longer dry seasons and shorter, wetter wet seasons. Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands face an increased risk of drought, potentially affecting community water collection, water supplies, agriculture, and the economy. Droughts are projected to increase in intensity due to higher temperatures and the associated increase in evaporation rates and soil moisture loss. The Caribbean islands are also particularly susceptible to flash drought (the rapid onset or intensification of drought) since communities and ecosystems rely on regular, often daily, precipitation. Drought impacts can be particularly concerning for the US Virgin Islands since there are no significant sources of surface water (e.g., natural lakes or significant perennial rivers), and groundwater is minimal due to the high relief of the islands.
Map of Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands showing the projected changes in total annual precipitation by the middle of this century as described in the caption.
Legend values range from less than negative 10 to greater than positive 15 percent. Note: unless otherwise specified, projected values are not statistically significant.
Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands are projected to see decreases in total annual precipitation of 5 to 10 percent.
The frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events are projected to increase due to increases in water vapor resulting from warming ocean temperatures. The number of landfalling Atlantic hurricanes is not expected to rise. However, hurricane-related rainfall rates, as well as the proportion of time the storms spend as major hurricanes, are projected to increase.
Increasing temperatures raise concerns for sea level rise across the Caribbean islands. On average, Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands both experienced about 4 inches of sea level rise between 1970 and 2020 and 1975 and 2020, respectively. This rate is slightly lower than that observed for the Hawaiian Islands (5 inches) and also lower than that for the contiguous US (6 inches). Under the Intermediate sea level scenario, projections show additional increases of about 8 inches for Puerto Rico and 7 inches for the US Virgin Islands by 2050 and 1.3 feet (for both territories) by 2070 (Figure 8). Across the five scenarios shown in Figure 8, the projected increases from 2020 to 2070 range from about 0.5 to 3.5 feet. Rates of sea level rise vary between the islands; for example, a rate of 1 inch per decade has been observed for Saint Croix, compared to a rate of 0.9 inches per decade for Saint Thomas and for Puerto Rico.
Continued sea level rise presents major challenges to the islands' coastline due to increased coastal flooding and coastal erosion. These impacts are particularly concerning for Puerto Rico, with more than 2 million people residing along its extensive coastline. Coastal areas are also home to a significant share of the islands' critical infrastructure such as roads and utilities, as well as the natural protective infrastructure of coral reefs, beaches, and dunes. Since 2010, sea level rise, as well as tropical cyclones and other extreme events, has increased the rate of erosion at many sites along the Puerto Rican coastline. By amplifying tidal and storm surge, even marginal amounts of sea level rise increase the likelihood of previously rare flooding events. Most of the US Virgin Islands are well above sea level; however, waterfront property in the capital, Charlotte Amalie, is generally within a few feet of sea level.
Two time series of observed and projected relative sea level for (a) Puerto Rico and (b) the US Virgin Islands.
Y-axis values range from negative 1 to positive 4 feet for both graphs. Legends in both graphs denote sources of historical data and scenarios for projections. Line colors for historical data are black for tide gauge data and orange for satellite data. Line and shading colors for projections based on five scenarios are as follows: light blue, Low; medium blue, Intermediate-Low; dark blue, Intermediate; yellow, Intermediate-High; and dark orange, High.
Panel A: Puerto Rico
Tide gauge and satellite data generally show increases but with year-to-year variability. Projected data show increases under all scenarios. Tide gauge values range from a minimum of negative 0.2 feet in 1970 to a maximum of positive 0.3 feet in 2015. Satellite values range from a minimum of negative 0.1 feet in 1996 to a maximum of positive 0.2 feet in 2015. Projected sea level median values (lines) for the Low scenario range from 0.2 feet in 2020 to 0.9 feet in 2070, compared to 0.3 feet in 2020 to 3.1 feet in 2070 for the High scenario. Likely ranges (shading) become wider over the period shown. The ranges of likely values in 2070 for each of the five scenarios are as follows: Low scenario, from 0.7 to 1.1 feet; Intermediate-Low, 1.0 to 1.4 feet; Intermediate, 1.2 to 2.0 feet; Intermediate-High, 1.7 to 2.9 feet; and High, 2.3 to 3.7 feet.
Panel B: US Virgin Islands
Both tide gauge lines show gradual increases similar to those in the Puerto Rico graph, while all future scenario lines show increases lower than those in the Puerto Rico graph. Tide gauge values range from a minimum of negative 0.3 feet in 1979 to a maximum of positive 0.3 feet in 2015. Satellite values range from a minimum of negative 0.2 feet in 1999 to a maximum of positive 0.2 feet in 2015. Projected sea level median values (lines) for the Low scenario range from 0.2 feet in 2020 to 0.9 feet in 2070, compared to 0.3 feet in 2020 to 3.0 feet in 2070 for the High scenario. Likely ranges (shading) become wider over the period shown. The ranges of likely values in 2070 for each of the five scenarios are as follows: Low scenario, from 0.7 to 1.0 feet; Intermediate-Low, 0.9 to 1.4 feet; Intermediate, 1.2 to 2.0 feet; Intermediate-High, 1.6 to 2.9 feet; and High, 2.3 to 3.6 feet.
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