Rhode Island's geographic position in the midlatitudes means that the jet stream often influences weather patterns, guiding storm systems across the state particularly in the late fall, winter, and spring. In addition, Rhode Island's location on the East Coast of North America exposes it to both the cold winter and warm summer air masses of the continental interior and the moderate and moist air masses of the western Atlantic Ocean. In winter, the contrast between the frigid air masses of the continental interior and the relatively warm Atlantic Ocean provides the energy for occasional intense storms known as nor'easters—cold-season coastal storms that can generate a tremendous amount of precipitation (in the form of snow, sleet, or freezing rain), strong winds, coastal flooding, and damage to infrastructure. Temperatures in Providence range from lows of around 22°F in January to highs of 84°F in July (1991–2020 averages). Statewide annual average precipitation is about 49 inches. Average accumulated snowfall ranges from 20 inches on Block Island and along the southeastern shores of Narragansett Bay to more than 60 inches in some western portions of the state.
Time series of observed and projected temperature change (in degrees Fahrenheit) for Rhode Island from 1900 to 2100 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from negative 4 to positive 18 degrees. Observed annual temperatures from 1900 to 2024 show variability and range from negative 3.4 to positive 4.7 degrees. By the end of the century, projected increases in temperature range from 1.9 to 8.5 degrees under the lower emissions pathway, from 4.1 to 10.5 degrees under the intermediate pathway, and from 8.5 to 17.2 degrees under the higher pathway.
Annual average temperatures in Rhode Island have increased about 4°F since the beginning of the 20th century (Figure 1). The number of both hot days and warm nights has increased since the 1960s. The number of hot days has generally been near or above the long-term average since the late 1990s (Figure 2a), and the number of warm nights has mostly been above average since the early 2010s (Figure 2b). The number of very cold nights has mostly been below average since the late 1980s (Figure 3).
Two sets of paired graphs of the observed annual number of (a) hot days and (b) warm nights for Rhode Island (top) from 1950 to 2024 and for the contiguous United States (bottom) from 1900 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Annual and 5-year values show variability in all graphs.
Panel A: Hot Days
Rhode Island
Y-axis values range from 0 to 24 days. Annual values range from 0.1 to 19.0 days. Five-year values are all below the long-term average of 5.9 days between 1950 and 1994 except for the 1980 to 1984 period, but they are all above average since 1995. The 1965 to 1969 period has the lowest 5-year value at 2.8 days, and the 2015 to 2019 and 2020 to 2024 periods have the highest at 9.0 and 8.9 days, respectively.
Contiguous US
Y-axis values range from 20 to 60 days. Annual values range from 20.7 to 57.7 days. Five-year values are below 34 days between 1900 and 1919, all near or above 36 days between 1910 and 1959, and all near or below 36 days since 1960 except for the 2010 to 2014 and 2020 to 2024 periods, which are slightly above 36 days. The 1965 to 1969 period has the lowest 5-year value at 29.6 days, and the 1930 to 1934 and 1935 to 1939 periods have the highest at 48.2 and 46.7 days, respectively.
Panel B: Warm Nights
Rhode Island
Y-axis values range from 0 to 20 nights. Annual values range from 0.3 to 18.4 nights. Five-year values are all near or below the long-term average of 5.7 nights between 1950 and 1999 but are all above average since 2000. The 1960 to 1964 period has the lowest 5-year value at 2.2 nights, and the 2020 to 2024 period has the highest at 11.8 nights.
Contiguous US
Y-axis values range from 4 to 28 nights. Annual values range from 7.5 to 26.2 nights. Five-year values are mostly near or below 16 nights between 1900 and 1994. Exceptions include the 1930 to 1934 and 1935 to 1939 periods with more than 18 nights. An upward trend is evident since the 1970 to 1974 period, which has the lowest 5-year value at 12.1 nights. All 5-year values since 1995 are above 18 nights. The 2010 to 2014 period has the highest 5-year value at 20.4 nights.
Paired graphs of the observed annual number of very cold nights for Rhode Island (top) from 1950 to 2024 and for the contiguous United States (bottom) from 1900 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Annual and 5-year values show variability in both graphs.
Rhode Island
Y-axis values range from 0 to 12 nights. Annual values range from 0.1 to 9.8 nights. Five-year values are below the long-term average of 2.6 nights for the 1950 to 1954 period but are all above average between 1955 and 1984. Since 1985, all 5-year values are below average except for the 2015 to 2019 period. The 2020 to 2024 period has the lowest 5-year value at 0.8 nights, and the 1975 to 1979 and 1980 to 1984 periods have the highest at 4.8 and 4.6 nights, respectively.
Contiguous US
Y-axis values range from 0 to 24 nights. Annual values range from 3.9 to 20 nights. Five-year values are all near or above 10 nights between 1900 and 1989 but are all below 10 nights since 1990 except for the 2010 to 2014 period. The 2020 to 2024 period has the lowest 5-year value at 7.6 nights, and the 1915 to 1919 and 1975 to 1979 periods have the highest at 15.1 and 15.6 nights, respectively.
Statewide total annual precipitation for Rhode Island has ranged from a low of 28.2 inches in 1965 to a high of 63.5 inches in 1972 (Figure 4a). Annual precipitation has generally been near or above average since the 1970s. Summer precipitation has also generally been near or above average since the 1970s (Figure 4b). With the exception of the 2015–2019 period, the number 2-inch extreme precipitation events has generally been near or above average since the 1970s (Figure 5). In 2010, major rainfall from a nor'easter in late March caused the worst flooding in the state's history. This event set a record for the wettest month in Providence of 16.3 inches, superseding the previous record of 15.4 inches (October 2005). The flooding of 2010 resulted in an estimated $43 million in national flood insurance claims in the state. More recently, on September 5, 2022, Providence received heavy rainfall of around 8 inches, resulting in flash flooding, displacement of residents, and the temporary closure of Interstate 95. The state experienced severe drought in 2016 and 2024 and extreme drought (as defined by the US Drought Monitor) in 2020 and 2022, straining water supplies.
Two graphs of the observed total (a) annual and (b) summer precipitation for Rhode Island from 1895 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Panel A: Total Annual Precipitation
Y-axis values range from 24 to 68 inches. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 28.2 to 63.5 inches. Five-year values also show variability and are above the long-term average of 46.3 inches between 1895 and 1904, all near or below average between 1905 and 1969 except for the 1950 to 1954 period, and all near or above average since 1970. The 1940 to 1944 period has the lowest 5-year value at 39.8 inches, and the 2005 to 2009 period has the highest at 53.9 inches.
Panel B: Total Summer Precipitation
Y-axis values range from 2 to 20 inches. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 4.6 to 19.2 inches. Five-year values also show variability and are above the long-term average of 10.9 inches for the 1895 to 1899 period, all below average between 1900 and 1914, all above average between 1915 and 1939 except for the 1930 to 1934 period, and all below average between 1940 and 1974 except for the 1950 to 1954 period. Since 1975, 5-year values are mostly near or above average. The 1960 to 1964 and 1965 to 1969 periods have the lowest 5-year values at 8.5 and 8.4 inches, respectively, and the 1985 to 1989 period has the highest at 12.9 inches.
Paired graphs of the observed annual number of 2-inch extreme precipitation events for Rhode Island (top) from 1950 to 2024 and for the contiguous United States (bottom) from 1900 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Annual and 5-year values show variability in both graphs.
Rhode Island
Y-axis values range from 0 to 6 events. Annual values range from 0 to 5.7 events. Five-year values are below the long-term average of 2.8 events between 1950 and 1969 but are mostly near or above average since 1970. The 1955 to 1959 period has the lowest 5-year value at 1.5 events, and the 2005 to 2009 period has the highest at 4.0 events.
Contiguous US
Y-axis values range from 1.0 to 3.0 events. Annual values range from 1.1 to 2.5 events. Five-year values are above 1.7 events between 1990 and 1909 but are all near or below 1.7 events between 1910 and 1989. An upward trend is evident since the early 1950s. All 5-year values since 1990 are above 1.7 events. The 1930 to 1934 period has the lowest 5-year value at 1.5 events, and the 2015 to 2020 period has the highest at 2.3 events.
Extreme weather events common to Rhode Island include severe storms (coastal, winter, and thunderstorms), often accompanied by flooding and, on occasion, tropical storms and hurricanes. The state's coastline is highly vulnerable to flood damage from winter and hurricane events. The Great New England Hurricane (Category 3) of 1938 was one of the most destructive and powerful storms ever to impact southern New England. Storm tides (storm surges combined with an already-present tide) of 12 to 15 feet were recorded for Narragansett Bay, and downtown Providence was submerged under a storm tide of 20 feet. In October 2012, Superstorm Sandy (a post-tropical storm) caused a storm surge 9.4 feet above normal high tide in Providence, resulting in extensive coastal flooding. Sandy was one of the most extreme and destructive events to affect the northeastern United States and the fifth-costliest US disaster on record. One year earlier, Hurricane Irene brought heavy rainfall and strong southeast winds of up to 70 mph, knocking down power lines and leaving half of Rhode Island's one million residents without power. On August 4, 2020, Tropical Storm Isaias brought sustained winds of 40–50 mph to Rhode Island, knocking out power to nearly 250,000 customers. On August 22, 2021, Tropical Storm Henri made landfall near Westerly, bringing wind gusts of 70 mph and damaging 60 homes in Newport Country; Henri was the first tropical cyclone to make landfall in the state since Hurricane Bob in August 1991. The number of landfalling Atlantic hurricanes is not expected to rise. However, rainfall rates from such storms, as well as the proportion of time they spend as major hurricanes, are projected to increase.
Under the intermediate and higher emissions pathways, historically unprecedented warming is projected during this century (Figure 1). Even under the lower emissions pathway, most projections show annual average temperatures exceeding historical levels by the middle of the century. However, projections for all three pathways show a large range of potential temperature increases, and some projections for the lower pathway are comparable to recent observed values. Heat waves are projected to increase in intensity while cold waves are projected to become less intense. Rising temperatures are expected to lead to more heat-related deaths, with urban areas being most at risk. Heat absorbed and emitted by buildings and pavement, as well as other aspects of urban environments, makes cities even warmer than the surrounding countryside, a phenomenon known as the urban heat island effect.
Under the intermediate emissions pathway, statistically significant increases are projected across the state in both total annual precipitation (Figure 6) and winter precipitation by midcentury. There is uncertainty in projections for spring, summer, and fall precipitation. Extreme precipitation events are projected to become more frequent and intense, potentially resulting in increased flooding.
Map of the contiguous United States showing the projected changes in total annual precipitation by the middle of this century as described in the caption. A blowup map of the state of Rhode Island appears to the right of the contiguous US.
Legend values range from less than negative 10 to greater than positive 15 percent. Note: unless otherwise specified, projected values are not statistically significant.
Rhode Island
The entire state of Rhode Island is projected to see statistically significant increases in total annual precipitation of 5 to 10 percent.
Contiguous US
Projected increases in total annual precipitation are as follows: up to 5 percent for most of the Southeast, as well as the central Midwest, central Great Plains, central West, and Northwest; and 5 to 10 percent for all of the Northeast, as well as portions of the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, northern Midwest, northern Great Plains, and Pacific Northwest, with statistically significant increases in the 5 to 10 percent range for the Northeast, northeastern Midwest, and portions of the northern Great Plains and Pacific Northwest.
Projected decreases of up to 5 percent are expected across most of Texas, New Mexico, and Arizona, as well as southern California.
Naturally occurring droughts are projected to increase in intensity due to higher temperatures and the associated increase in evaporation rates and soil moisture loss.
Like the northeastern US coast as a whole, Rhode Island is at considerable risk from sea level rise. On average, the state experienced about 6 inches of sea level rise between 1970 and 2020—similar to that for the contiguous US as a whole—and projections under the Intermediate sea level scenario show additional increases of about 10 inches by 2050 and 1.7 feet by 2070 (Figure 7). Across the five scenarios shown in Figure 7, the projected increases from 2020 to 2070 range from about 0.5 to 3.5 feet. Rising sea levels pose a threat to the state's coastal communities, infrastructure, and ecosystems. Increases in sea level are expected to increase coastal flooding and erosion during winter storms (nor'easters) and hurricanes.
Two time series of observed and projected relative sea level change for (a) the contiguous US and (b) Rhode Island from 1970 to 2070 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from negative 1 to positive 4 feet for both graphs. Legends in both graphs denote sources of historical data and scenarios for projections. Line colors for historical data are black for tide gauge data and orange for satellite data. Line and shading colors for projections based on five scenarios are as follows: light blue, Low; medium blue, Intermediate-Low; dark blue, Intermediate; yellow, Intermediate-High; and dark orange, High.
Panel A: Contiguous US
Tide gauge and satellite data generally show increases but with year-to-year variability. Projected data show increases under all scenarios. Tide gauge values range from a minimum of negative 0.3 feet in 1976 to a maximum of positive 0.4 feet in 2023. Satellite values range from a minimum of 0.0 feet in 1994 to a maximum of 0.4 feet in 2023. Projected sea level median values (lines) for the Low scenario range from 0.3 feet in 2020 to 1.1 feet in 2070, compared to 0.4 feet in 2020 to 3.1 feet in 2070 for the High scenario. Likely ranges (shading) become wider over the period shown. The range of likely values in 2070 for each of the five scenarios are as follows: Low scenario, from 0.9 to 1.4 feet; Intermediate-Low, 1.2 to 1.7 feet; Intermediate, 1.5 to 2.2 feet; Intermediate-High, 1.8 to 3.1 feet; and High, 2.4 to 3.8 feet.
Panel B: Rhode Island
Both historical lines show increases higher than those in the contiguous US graph, while future scenario lines are similar to those in the contiguous US graph for the High and Intermediate-High scenarios but are higher for the Intermediate, Intermediate-Low, and Low scenarios. Tide gauge values range from a minimum of negative 0.3 feet in 1976 to a maximum of positive 0.6 feet in 2024. Satellite values range from a minimum of negative 0.1 feet in 1994 to a maximum of positive 0.5 feet in 2024. Projected sea level median values (lines) for the Low scenario range from 0.4 feet in 2020 to 1.3 feet in 2070, compared to 0.4 feet in 2020 to 3.1 feet in 2070 for the High scenario. Likely ranges (shading) become wider over the period shown. The range of likely values in 2070 for each of the five scenarios are as follows: Low scenario, from 1.0 to 1.7 feet; Intermediate-Low, 1.3 to 2.0 feet; Intermediate, 1.6 to 2.5 feet; Intermediate-High, 1.9 to 3.3 feet; and High, 2.4 to 3.9 feet.
Sea level rise has caused an increase in high-tide floods associated with nuisance-level impacts, which are occurring more frequently, even on sunny days. High-tide flooding occurs when one or more factors—sea level rise, winds, changes in ocean currents, full or new moons—push water levels above the normal high-tide mark. These events can damage infrastructure, cause road closures, and overwhelm storm drains. High-tide flooding has increased in all US coastal areas, with more rapid increases along the East and Gulf Coasts, and is likely to occur more frequently in Rhode Island as global and local sea levels continue to rise. The number of high-tide flood days has increased at Providence, with the greatest numbers occurring in 2017 and 2023. Under both the Intermediate-Low and Intermediate scenarios, high-tide floods are projected to occur much more frequently in future years (Figure 8).
Graph of the observed and projected annual number of high-tide flood days at Providence, Rhode Island, from 1939 to 2100 (top), including a magnified view of the observed data for the period 1939 to 2024 (bottom), as described in the caption.
A legend shows annual observations (orange bars) and projected 19-year averages (two-colored bars) for the Intermediate-Low (medium blue) and Intermediate (dark blue) sea level scenarios.
Bottom
Y-axis labels for the magnified view range from 0 to 15 days per year. Following the first recorded event in 1941, high-tide flooding occurred somewhat sporadically until the mid-1990s, occasionally with gaps of 1 to 2 years between events and annual values mostly below 6 days (note: data was not available between 1947 and 1956). Starting in 1995, high-tide flood days occurred every year, with record highs of 15 days in both 2017 and 2023.
Top
Y-axis labels range from 0 to 350 days, with a horizontal dashed gray line indicating 365 days. Providence is projected to experience 55 to 70 high-tide flood days per year by 2050 under the Intermediate-Low and Intermediate scenarios, respectively, and 250 to 360 days by 2100.
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