South Carolina's geographic position at subtropical latitudes and its proximity to the Atlantic Ocean produce a humid climate with hot summers and mild winters. The Appalachian Mountains to the north and west tend to partially shield the state from cold air masses approaching from the northwest; however, occasional periods of very cold temperatures occur. Winter low temperatures generally range from less than 30°F at high elevations to more than 40°F in some coastal locations (1991–2020 averages). The state receives a persistent flow of warm, moist air from the Atlantic during the warmer half of the year, leading to mostly hot and humid conditions in late spring and summer. Summer high temperatures range from the low 80s (°F) in the mountains to more than 90°F in the central part of the state, with maximum temperatures along the coast generally in the high 80s. Annual precipitation totals typically range from more than 80 inches near Lake Jocassee in the mountains in the far northwest to less than 39 inches at Wateree in the Midlands, the driest part of the state. While isolated mountain areas receive large precipitation amounts, annual precipitation ranges from 45 to 55 inches for the majority of the Upstate and coastal Lowcountry and about 45 to 50 inches in the Midlands. The high amounts of precipitation in the far northwest are due to orographic enhancement (the increase of rainfall with elevation on the upwind side of mountain ranges), while the slightly higher amounts along the Coastal Plain are due to sea breeze thunderstorms (caused by differential heating between sea and land surfaces), which occur during the summer months.
Time series of observed and projected temperature change (in degrees Fahrenheit) for South Carolina from 1900 to 2100 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from negative 4 to positive 16 degrees. Observed annual temperatures from 1900 to 2024 show variability and range from negative 1.9 to positive 2.5 degrees. By the end of the century, projected increases in temperature range from 1.7 to 6.7 degrees under the lower emissions pathway, from 3.6 to 8.6 degrees under the intermediate pathway, and from 7.1 to 14.0 degrees under the higher pathway.
Annual average temperatures in South Carolina have increased more than 1°F since the beginning of the 20th century (Figure 1). Temperatures increased during the early part of the 20th century and then cooled substantially during the middle of the century. The state has warmed rapidly since the 1970s, and 2015–2024 was the warmest decade on record. The contiguous United States as a whole warmed by about 2.2°F from 1900 to 2024, although it also cooled from the 1930s into the 1960s but not by nearly as much as South Carolina. Hypothesized causes for this difference in warming rates in parts of the Southeast US include increased cloud cover and precipitation, increased small particles from coal burning, natural factors related to forest regrowth, decreased heat flux due to irrigation, and multidecadal variability in North Atlantic and tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures. There is no long-term trend in the number of extremely hot days (Figure 2a), but very warm nights are becoming more common, with the highest 5-year average recorded for the 2020–2024 period (Figure 2b). Days with maximum temperatures below freezing are rare in South Carolina, but the number of freezing days has generally been below average since the 1990s (Figure 3).
Two graphs of the observed annual number of (a) extremely hot days and (b) very warm nights for South Carolina from 1900 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Panel A: Extremely Hot Days
Y-axis values range from 0 to 20 days. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0 to 18.3 days. Five-year values also show variability and are mostly above the long-term average of 3.1 days between 1900 and 1954, all below average between 1955 and 1979, and all near or above average between 1980 and 2014 except for the 2000 to 2004 period. The 2015 to 2019 and 2020 to 2024 periods are below average. The 1960 to 1964 and 1970 to 1974 periods have the lowest 5-year values at 0.6 and 0.7 days, respectively, and the 1950 to 1954 period has the highest at 9.1 days.
Panel B: Very Warm Nights
Y-axis values range from 0 to 18 nights. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0.8 to 16.6 nights. Five-year values also show variability and are above the long-term average of 4.4 nights for the 1900 to 1904 period, all near or below average between 1905 and 1929, all near or above average between 1930 and 1954, and all below average between 1955 and 1979. Since 1980, most 5-year values are above average. The 1970 to 1974 and 1975 to 1979 periods have the lowest 5-year values at 1.7 and 1.8 nights, respectively, and the 2010 to 2014 and 2020 to 2024 periods have the highest at 7.5 and 8.3 nights, respectively.
Graph of the observed annual number of freezing days for South Carolina from 1900 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from 0 to 5 days. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0 to 4.5 days. Five-year values also show variability and are all above the long-term average of 0.6 days between 1900 and 1919 except for the 1910 to 1914 period, all near or below average between 1920 and 1959, and all near or above average between 1960 and 1989. Since 1990, 5-year values are all near or below average except for the 2010 to 2014 period. The 1950 to 1954 period has the lowest 5-year value at 0.1 days, and the 1915 to 1919 and 1980 to 1984 periods have the highest at 1.5 days each.
Statewide total annual precipitation has ranged from a low of 31.72 inches in 1954 to a high of 69.32 inches in 1964 (Figure 4). Annual precipitation shows no long-term trend but has been near or above average every year since 2013. The number of 3-inch extreme precipitation events also shows no long-term trend (Figure 5). South Carolina has experienced a number of significant droughts. One of the most prolonged occurred from 1998–2002, leading to record-low streamflows, mandatory conservation efforts, widespread forest fires, and severe crop loss. The most recent long-term drought occurred from 2010 to 2013, closely following another drought that stretched from 2007–2009. The state experienced flash droughts (the rapid onset or intensification of drought) during the falls of 2019 and 2023, as well as the summer of 2024.
Graph of the observed total annual precipitation for South Carolina from 1895 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from 28 to 72 inches. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 31.7 to 69.3 inches. Five-year values also show variability, with no clear trend, and are mostly near or below the long-term average of 47.9 inches across the entire period. Exceptions include the 1945 to 1949 and 1960 to 1964 periods, which have the highest 5-year values at 52.1 and 52.7 inches, respectively. The 1950 to 1954 period has the lowest 5-year value at 40.8 inches.
Graph of the observed annual number of 3-inch extreme precipitation events for South Carolina from 1900 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from 0.0 to 3.5 events. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0.1 to 2.9 events. Five-year values also show variability, with no clear trend, and are mostly near or below the long-term average of 0.8 events across the entire period. Exceptions include the 1960 to 1964 and 2015 to 2019 periods, which have the highest 5-year values at 1.3 and 1.1 events, respectively. The 2010 to 2014 period has the lowest 5-year value at 0.4 events.
Major storm threats for South Carolina include tropical cyclones, which occur in the summer and fall, and severe thunderstorms, which occur primarily in the late winter and spring. Both types of storms can produce tornadoes. Over the last decade (2015–2024), the state has experienced 46 billion-dollar disaster events involving severe storms, tornado outbreaks, hurricanes, and droughts. The state ranks twentieth in the Nation for annual tornado frequency, with an average of 26 tornadoes per year (1995–2024). One notable event was the April 13, 2020, tornado outbreak, which consisted of multiple EF3 tornadoes and the first EF4 tornado to hit the state since 1995.
Tropical storms and hurricanes occur less frequently than severe thunderstorms but pose a significant threat for the state. Between 1900 and 2024, 168 tropical cyclones or their remnants have impacted South Carolina, including 42 hurricane-strength storms. Impacts have been experienced across the state, including storm surge flooding along the coast, damage from high winds, and inland flooding from heavy precipitation. Hurricane Hugo in 1989 was one of the strongest hurricanes (Category 4) in the state's history. Wind speeds of up to 120 mph were observed 200 miles inland, and the storm tide (a storm surge combined with an already-present tide) reached 20 feet, resulting in extensive damage, including loss of life, severe residential and commercial flooding, power outages, and infrastructure losses. On August 8, 2024, Tropical Storm Debby made landfall in South Carolina, bringing 8 tornadoes, widespread rainfall of 10 inches or more, and damaging flash flooding across southern and eastern parts of the state. The following month, Hurricane Helene made landfall in the Big Bend region of Florida and then moved rapidly across Georgia and the Carolinas. South Carolina experienced sustained winds near 60 mph (with gusts near 80 mph), 21 tornadoes, three-day rainfall totals above 18 inches, and power outages affecting 1.3 million people. More than two dozen people died in the state as a direct result of the storm, mostly from falling trees. The number of landfalling Atlantic hurricanes is not expected to rise. However, rainfall rates from such storms, as well as the proportion of time they spend as major hurricanes, are projected to increase.
Flooding from other heavy precipitation events is also a concern for the state. In early October 2015, a stalled offshore front led to widespread 4-day rainfall totals of 15–20 inches and localized amounts over 25 inches, mainly in the Charleston area. These historic rainfall totals caused catastrophic flooding in southeast South Carolina, despite relieving the moderate to severe drought conditions (as defined by the US Drought Monitor) of that year's summer. The rainfall shattered numerous 24-hour and 5-day total records.
Under the intermediate and higher emissions pathways, historically unprecedented warming is projected during this century (Figure 1). Even under the lower emissions pathway, most projections show annual average temperatures exceeding historical levels by the middle of the century. However, projections for all three pathways show a large range of potential temperature increases, and some projections for the lower pathway are comparable to recent observed values. Heat wave intensity is projected to increase, while the intensity of cold waves is projected to decrease.
Under the intermediate emissions pathway, projections indicate increases in total annual precipitation by midcentury for South Carolina; however, the projected changes are not statistically significant (Figure 6). There is similar uncertainty in projections for seasonal precipitation, although models generally indicate statewide increases in all seasons. The frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events are projected to increase, potentially increasing the frequency and intensity of floods.
Map of the contiguous United States showing the projected changes in total annual precipitation by the middle of this century as described in the caption. The state of South Carolina is outlined in black.
Legend values range from less than negative 10 to greater than positive 15 percent. Note: unless otherwise specified, projected values are not statistically significant.
South Carolina
The majority of the state of South Carolina is projected to see increases in total annual precipitation of 5 to 10 percent, with a narrow strip along the coast expected to see increases of up to 5 percent.
Contiguous US
Projected increases in total annual precipitation are as follows: up to 5 percent for most of the Southeast, as well as the central Midwest, central Great Plains, central West, and Northwest; and 5 to 10 percent for all of the Northeast, as well as portions of the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, northern Midwest, northern Great Plains, and Pacific Northwest, with statistically significant increases in the 5 to 10 percent range for the Northeast, northeastern Midwest, and portions of the northern Great Plains and Pacific Northwest.
Projected decreases of up to 5 percent are expected across most of Texas, New Mexico, and Arizona, as well as southern California.
Periodic droughts, a natural part of the state's climate, are projected to be more intense because higher temperatures will increase evaporation rates and soil moisture loss during dry spells, exacerbating drought conditions. Resulting decreases in water availability, compounded by population growth, will continue to increase competition for water.
Sea level rise is an important concern in South Carolina due to the state's extensive coastline, which includes an abundance of salt marshes and estuaries, as well as natural seaports such as Georgetown and Charleston. On average, the state experienced about 7 inches of sea level rise between 1970 and 2020—compared to 6 inches for the contiguous US as a whole—and projections under the Intermediate sea level scenario show additional increases of about 10 inches by 2050 and 1.6 feet by 2070 (Figure 7). Across the five scenarios shown in Figure 7, the projected increases from 2020 to 2070 range from about 1 to 3.5 feet. Even marginal amounts of sea level rise increase the likelihood of flooding events by amplifying tide and storm surge. Sea level rise is projected to result in increased flooding, erosion, and disruptions to coastal and estuarine ecosystems, as well as posing threats to property, infrastructure, and the tourism and agriculture industries.
Two time series of observed and projected relative sea level change for (a) the contiguous US and (b) South Carolina from 1970 to 2070 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from negative 1 to positive 4 feet for both graphs. Legends in both graphs denote sources of historical data and scenarios for projections. Line colors for historical data are black for tide gauge data and orange for satellite data. Line and shading colors for projections based on five scenarios are as follows: light blue, Low; medium blue, Intermediate-Low; dark blue, Intermediate; yellow, Intermediate-High; and dark orange, High.
Panel A: Contiguous US
Tide gauge and satellite data generally show increases but with year-to-year variability. Projected data show increases under all scenarios. Tide gauge values range from a minimum of negative 0.3 feet in 1976 to a maximum of positive 0.4 feet in 2023. Satellite values range from a minimum of 0.0 feet in 1994 to a maximum of 0.4 feet in 2023. Projected sea level median values (lines) for the Low scenario range from 0.3 feet in 2020 to 1.1 feet in 2070, compared to 0.4 feet in 2020 to 3.1 feet in 2070 for the High scenario. Likely ranges (shading) become wider over the period shown. The ranges of likely values in 2070 for each of the five scenarios are as follows: Low scenario, from 0.9 to 1.4 feet; Intermediate-Low, 1.2 to 1.7 feet; Intermediate, 1.5 to 2.2 feet; Intermediate-High, 1.8 to 3.1 feet; and High, 2.4 to 3.8 feet.
Panel B: South Carolina
All historical and future scenario lines show increases higher than those in the contiguous US graph. Tide gauge values range from a minimum of negative 0.3 feet in 1976 to a maximum of positive 0.6 feet in 2023. Satellite values range from a minimum of negative 0.1 feet in 1996 to a maximum of positive 0.5 feet in 2023. Projected sea level median values (lines) for the Low scenario range from 0.3 feet in 2020 to 1.3 feet in 2070, compared to 0.4 feet in 2020 to 3.3 feet in 2070 for the High scenario. Likely ranges (shading) become wider over the period shown. The ranges of likely values in 2070 for each of the five scenarios are as follows: Low scenario, from 1.0 to 1.6 feet; Intermediate-Low, 1.3 to 1.9 feet; Intermediate, 1.6 to 2.4 feet; Intermediate-High, 2.0 to 3.2 feet; and High, 2.5 to 3.9 feet.
Sea level rise has caused an increase in high-tide floods associated with nuisance-level impacts, which are occurring more frequently, even on sunny days. High-tide flooding occurs when one or more factors—sea level rise, winds, changes in ocean currents, full or new moons—push water levels above the normal high-tide mark. These events can damage infrastructure, cause road closures, and overwhelm storm drains. High-tide flooding has increased in all US coastal areas, with more rapid increases along the East and Gulf Coasts, and is likely to occur more frequently in South Carolina as global and local sea levels continue to rise. The number of high-tide flood days has increased at Charleston, with the greatest number occurring in 2023. Under both the Intermediate-Low and Intermediate scenarios, high-tide floods are projected to occur much more frequently in future years (Figure 8).
Graph of the observed and projected annual number of high-tide flood days at Charleston, South Carolina, from 1922 to 2100 (top), including a magnified view of the observed data for the period 1922 to 2024 (bottom), as described in the caption.
A legend shows annual observations (orange bars) and projected 19-year averages (two-colored bars) for the Intermediate-Low (medium blue) and Intermediate (dark blue) sea level scenarios.
Bottom
Y-axis labels for the magnified view range from 0 to 15 days per year. Following the first recorded event in 1928, high-tide flooding was sporadic until the late 1970s, often with gaps of 5 to 9 years between events and annual values all below 3 days. Between the early 1980s and early 2010s, high-tide flood days increased in frequency and number, and starting in 2015, high-tide flood days occurred every year, with a record high of 17 days in 2023.
Top
Y-axis labels range from 0 to 350 days, with a horizontal dashed gray line indicating 365 days. Charleston is projected to experience 60 to 70 high-tide flood days per year by 2050 under the Intermediate-Low and Intermediate scenarios, respectively, and 270 to 360 days by 2100.
SOURCES
- CO-OPS, n.d.: Tides & Currents. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services, accessed September 12, 2025. https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov
- Hagen, A.B., J.P. Cangialosi, M. Chenard, L. Alaka, and S. Delgado, 2025: Tropical Cyclone Report: Hurricane Helene, 24–27 September 2024. AL092024. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Hurricane Center, 107 pp. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL092024_Helene.pdf
- Knowlton, K., 2015: Climate Change Threatens Health. National Resources Defense Council, New York, NY, accessed November 6, 2025. https://web.archive.org/web/20240926222632/https://www.nrdc.org/resources/climate-change-threatens-health
- Mizzell, H., M. Malsick, and M. Griffin, 2020: April 13, 2020: South Carolina Tornado Outbreak. South Carolina Department of Natural Resources, State Climatology Office, Columbia, SC. https://www.dnr.sc.gov/climate/sco/Publications/April13Tornadoes_Final.pdf
- MRCC, n.d.: cli-MATE: MRCC Application Tools Environment. Midwestern Regional Climate Center, accessed September 12, 2025. https://mrcc.purdue.edu/newclimate
- NCEI, n.d.: Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters: South Carolina Summary. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Centers for Environmental Information, accessed September 12, 2025. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/billions/state-summary/SC
- NCEI, n.d.: Climate at a Glance. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Centers for Environmental Information, accessed September 12, 2025. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/
- NCEI, n.d.: National Climate Report. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Centers for Environmental Information, accessed September 12, 2025. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/national
- NCEI, n.d.: U.S. Climate Normals. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Centers for Environmental Information, accessed September 12, 2025. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/us-climate-normals
- NHC, n.d.: Historical Hurricane Tracks. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL, accessed September 12, 2025. https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/
- NIDIS, n.d.: National Conditions: South Carolina. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Integrated Drought Information System, accessed September 12, 2025. https://www.drought.gov/states/south-carolina
- NWS, n.d.: Historic Flooding—October 1–5, 2015. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service, Charleston Weather Forecast Office, Charleston, SC, accessed September 12, 2025. https://www.weather.gov/chs/historicflooding-oct2015
- NWS, n.d.: Southeast SC/GA Tornadoes—April 13, 2020. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service, Charleston Weather Forecast Office, Charleston, SC, accessed September 12, 2025. https://www.weather.gov/chs/Tornadoes-April2020
- NWS, n.d.: Storm Prediction Center: Severe Weather Maps, Graphics, and Data Page. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service, Storm Prediction Center, Norman, OK, accessed September 12, 2025. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/
- OCM, n.d.: U.S. Sea Level Change: National Sea Level Explorer. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Office for Coastal Management, accessed September 12, 2025. https://earth.gov/sealevel/us/national-sea-level-explorer/
- Reinhart, B.J., A. Reinhart, and L. Alaka, 2025: Tropical Cyclone Report: Hurricane Debby, 3–8 August 2024. AL042024. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Hurricane Center, 55 pp. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL042024_Debby.pdf
- SC DNR, 2013: Climate Change Impacts to Natural Resources in South Carolina. South Carolina Department of Natural Resources, Columbia, SC, 101 pp. https://www.dnr.sc.gov/pubs/CCINatResReport.pdf
- SC DNR, 2025: SC Hurricane Comprehensive Summary. South Carolina Department of Natural Resources, 23 pp. https://www.dnr.sc.gov/climate/sco/hurricanes/pdfs/SCHurricanesExecutiveSummary.pdf
- SC DNR, n.d.: South Carolina County 24-Hour Precipitation Records. South Carolina Department of Natural Resources, State Climatology Office, accessed September 12, 2025. https://www.dnr.sc.gov/climate/sco/ClimateData/data/24_hr_pcpn.php
- SC Drought Response Committee, n.d.: Historical Drought Impacts. SCDNR State Climate Office, accessed September 12, 2025. http://www.scdrought.com/impacts.html
- SC State Climatology Office, 2026: Keystone Drought Events in South Carolina. South Carolina Department of Natural Resources, Land, Water, and Conservation Division. https://www.dnr.sc.gov/climate/sco/Publications/SCKeystoneDroughtEvents.pdf
- Sweet, W.V., B.D. Hamlington, R.E. Kopp, C.P. Weaver, P.L. Barnard, D. Bekaert, W. Brooks, M. Craghan, G. Dusek, T. Frederikse, G. Garner, A.S. Genz, J.P. Krasting, E. Larour, D. Marcy, J.J. Marra, J. Obeysekera, M. Osler, M. Pendleton, D. Roman, L. Schmied, W. Veatch, K.D. White, and C. Zuzak, 2022: Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States: Updated Mean Projections and Extreme Water Level Probabilities Along U.S. Coastlines. NOAA Technical Report NOS 01. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Ocean Service, Silver Spring, MD, 111 pp. https://earth.gov/sealevel/us/internal_resources/756/noaa-nos-techrpt01-global-regional-SLR-scenarios-US.pdf
- USGCRP, 2017: Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I. Wuebbles, D.J., D.W. Fahey, K.A. Hibbard, D.J. Dokken, B.C. Stewart, and T.K. Maycock, Eds. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA, 470 pp. https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/19486
- USGCRP, 2018: Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II. Reidmiller, D.R., C.W. Avery, D.R. Easterling, K.E. Kunkel, K.L.M. Lewis, T.K. Maycock, and B.C. Stewart, Eds. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA, 1515 pp. https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/19487
- USGCRP, 2023: Fifth National Climate Assessment. Crimmins, A.R., C.W. Avery, D.R. Easterling, K.E. Kunkel, B.C. Stewart, and T.K. Maycock, Eds. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA. https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/61592
- Wiltgen, N., 2015: South Carolina's catastrophic floods caused by one of the most prolific rainfall events in modern U.S. history. The Weather Channel News, October 11, 2015. The Weather Company. https://weather.com/news/news/south-carolina-historic-flood-rainfall-record-extreme