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NOAA National Centers
for Environmental Information

State Climate Summaries 2022

SOUTH DAKOTA

Key Messages   Narrative   Downloads  

Mount Rushmore
Photo by Amanda Scheliga

Key Message 1

Temperatures in South Dakota have risen almost 2°F since the beginning of the 20th century, with warming concentrated in the winter and nighttime minimum temperatures increasing about twice as much as daytime maximums. Under a higher emissions pathway, historically unprecedented warming is projected during this century.

Key Message 2

Increases in evaporation rates due to rising temperatures may increase the rate of warm-season soil moisture loss and the intensity of naturally occurring droughts.

Key Message 3

Winter and spring precipitation is projected to increase, with associated increases in total seasonal snowfall. Extreme precipitation events are also projected to increase in frequency and intensity, raising the risk of springtime flooding.

Badlands
Photo by Pete Zarria

SOUTH DAKOTA

South Dakota lies in the Northern Great Plains, straddling the transition from the moist eastern United States to the semiarid West. Due to its location in the center of the North American continent, far from the moderating effects of the oceans, the state experiences large temperature extremes. Average January temperatures range from less than 10°–15°F in the northeast to more than 25°F in the southwest, while average July temperatures range from about 65°F in Black Hills National Forest to more than 75°F in the south-central region. Temperatures of 100°F or more occur nearly every year. The warmest year on record was 2012, with a statewide average temperature of 49.3°F (4.6°F above the long-term [1895–2020] average). The lack of mountain ranges to the north exposes the state to bitterly cold arctic air masses in winter.

   

Figure 1

Observed and Projected Temperature Change
Time series of observed and projected temperature change (in degrees Fahrenheit) for South Dakota from 1900 to 2100 as described in the caption. Y-axis values range from minus 4.6 to positive 17.2 degrees. Observed annual temperature change from 1900 to 2020 shows variability and ranges from minus 3.5 to positive 4.9 degrees. By the end of the century, projected increases in temperature range from 2.2 to 9.8 degrees under the lower emissions pathway and from 6.8 to 16.1 degrees under the higher pathway.
Figure 1: Observed and projected changes (compared to the 1901–1960 average) in near-surface air temperature for South Dakota. Observed data are for 1900–2020. Projected changes for 2006–2100 are from global climate models for two possible futures: one in which greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase (higher emissions) and another in which greenhouse gas emissions increase at a slower rate (lower emissions). Temperatures in South Dakota (orange line) have risen almost 2°F since the beginning of the 20th century. Shading indicates the range of annual temperatures from the set of models. Observed temperatures are generally within the envelope of model simulations of the historical period (gray shading). Historically unprecedented warming is projected during the 21st century. Less warming is expected under a lower emissions future (the coldest end-of-century projections being about 2°F warmer than the historical average; green shading) and more warming under a higher emissions future (the hottest end-of-century projections being about 11°F warmer than the hottest year in the historical record; red shading). Sources: CISESS and NOAA NCEI.

Temperatures in South Dakota have risen almost 2°F since the beginning of the 20th century (Figure 1). Temperatures in the first two decades of this century have been higher than in any other historical period, with the exception of the early 1930s Dust Bowl era, when poor land management likely exacerbated hot summer temperatures. Warming has occurred in all four seasons but has been largest in the winter (Figure 2a). Summers have warmed very little (Figure 2b), which is characteristic of most states in the Great Plains and Midwest. The lack of summer warming is reflected in a below average number of extremely hot days since 1990 (Figure 3a) and no overall trend in warm nights (Figure 3b). In addition, nighttime minimum temperatures have risen at about twice the rate of daytime maximum temperatures, which might be attributed to an increase in absolute humidity. Winter warming is reflected in a below average number of very cold days since 2000 (Figure 4).

   

a)

Observed Winter Temperature
Graph of the observed winter average temperature for South Dakota from 1895–96 to 2019–20 as described in the caption. Y-axis values range from 5 to 30 degrees Fahrenheit. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from about 6 to 29 degrees. Multiyear values also show variability and are mostly near or below the long-term average of 18.6 degrees between 1895 and 1979. Exceptions include the 1930 to 1934 and 1940 to 1944 periods, which are above average. Since 1980, multiyear values show no clear trend but are all near or above average. The 1915 to 1919 period has the lowest multiyear value and the 2000 to 2004 period the highest.
   

b)

Observed Summer Temperature
Graph of the observed summer average temperature for South Dakota from 1895 to 2020 as described in the caption. Y-axis labels range from 65 to 75 degrees Fahrenheit. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from about 63 to 76 degrees. Multiyear values also show variability and are all below the long-term average of 69.7 degrees between 1895 and 1929 but are mostly near or above average since 1930. Notably, the multiyear periods of the 1930s are well above average and have the highest multiyear values. The 1905 to 1909 period has the lowest multiyear value.
Figure 2. Observed (a) winter (December–February) and (b) summer (June–August) average temperature for South Dakota from (a) 1895–96 to 2019–20 and (b) 1895 to 2020. Dots show annual values. Bars show averages over 5-year periods (first bar in Figure 2a is a 4-winter average, last bar in Figures 2a and 2b is a 6-winter and 6-summer average, respectively). The horizontal black lines show the long-term (entire period) averages: (a) 18.6°F and (b) 69.7°F. The multiyear periods between 1995 and 2009 had the highest winter temperatures on record. Since 2000, summer temperatures have been above average, although they have remained well below the extreme heat of the 1930s Dust Bowl era. Sources: CISESS and NOAA NCEI. Data: nClimDiv.

Annual average precipitation ranges from around 16 inches in the northwest to about 28 inches in the southeast. Statewide total precipitation has varied widely from year to year, ranging from a low of 10.9 inches in 1936 to a high of 31.4 inches in 2019 (Figure 3c). The driest multiyear periods occurred in the 1930s and the wettest in the late 1990s and from 2008 onward. Annual precipitation has ranged from an average of 14.3 inches per year during the driest consecutive 5-year interval (1933–1937) to an average of 23.2 inches per year during the wettest consecutive 5-year interval (2007–2011). Summer precipitation has generally been above average since 2008 (Figure 3d). Most of the state’s precipitation falls between April and September, when thunderstorm activity is highest. The most severe thunderstorms can produce hail, high winds, and tornadoes. A hailstone from a severe thunderstorm that fell on July 23, 2010, in Vivian holds the national record for hail weight (1.938 pounds) and diameter (8.00 inches). While most of the state averages at least 30 inches of snow annually, portions of Black Hills National Forest can receive upwards of 70 inches annually. South Dakota has generally experienced an increase in snowfall.

Figure 3

   

a)

Observed Number of Extremely Hot Days
Graph of the observed annual number of extremely hot days for South Dakota from 1900 to 2020 as described in the caption. Y-axis values range from 0 to 35 days. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0.4 to about 33 days. Multiyear values also show variability and are mostly near or above the long-term average of 4.1 days between 1900 and 1989. Notably, the multiyear periods of the 1930s are well above average and have the highest multiyear values, more than triple the long-term average. Since 1990, multiyear values are all below average. The 1905 to 1909 and 1995 to 1999 periods have the lowest multiyear values.
   

b)

Observed Number of Warm Nights
Graph of the observed annual number of warm nights for South Dakota from 1900 to 2020 as described in the caption. Y-axis values range from 0 to 25 nights. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from about 1 to 20 nights. Multiyear values also show variability and are all below the long-term average of 5.5 nights between 1900 and 1929 but are mostly near or above average since 1930. Notably, the multiyear periods of the 1930s are well above average and have the highest multiyear values. The 1905 to 1909 and 1990 to 1994 periods have the lowest multiyear values.
   

c)

Observed Annual Precipitation
Graph of the observed total annual precipitation for South Dakota from 1895 to 2020 as described in the caption. Y-axis values range from 10 to 35 inches. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from about 11 to 31 inches. Multiyear values also show variability and are mostly near or below the long-term average of 19.3 inches between 1895 and 1989. Since 1990, multiyear values are mostly above average. The 1930 to 1934 and 1935 to 1939 periods, which are well below average, have the lowest multiyear values, and the 1995 to 1999 period, which is well above average, has the highest.
   

d)

Observed Summer Precipitation
Graph of the observed total summer precipitation for South Dakota from 1895 to 2020 as described in the caption. Y-axis values range from 2 to 14 inches. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from about 4 to 14 inches. Multiyear values also show variability and are mostly near or above the long-term average of 8.1 inches across the entire period. Exceptions include the 1930 to 1934, 1935 to 1939, and 1970 to 1974 periods, which are well below average and have the lowest multiyear values. The 1990 to 1994 period has the highest multiyear value.
Figure 3. Observed (a) annual number of extremely hot days (maximum temperature of 100°F or higher), (b) annual number of warm nights (minimum temperature of 70°F or higher), (c) total annual precipitation, and (d) total summer (June–August) precipitation for South Dakota from (a, b) 1900 to 2020 and (c, d) 1895 to 2020. Dots show annual values. Bars show averages over 5-year periods (last bar is a 6-year average). The horizontal black lines show the long-term (entire period) averages: (a) 4.1 days, (b) 5.5 nights, (c) 19.3 inches, (d) 8.1 inches. Since 1990, the number of extremely hot days has been near or below average, while the number of warm nights shows no overall trend. Total annual and summer precipitation varies widely but has been trending upward since 2000. Sources: CISESS and NOAA NCEI. Data: (a, b) GHCN-Daily from 25 long-term stations, (c, d) nClimDiv.
   
Observed Number of Very Cold Days
Graph of the observed annual number of very cold days for South Dakota from 1900 to 2020 as described in the caption. Y-axis values range from 0 to 20 days. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0.1 to about 20 days. Multiyear values also show variability and are mostly near or above the long-term average of 2.8 days between 1900 and 1939, all below average between 1944 and 1969, and all near or above average between 1970 and 1999. Since 2000, multiyear values are all below average. The 1955 to 1959 period has the lowest multiyear value and the 1915 to 1919 and 1935 to 1939 periods the highest.
Figure 4: Observed annual number of very cold days (maximum temperature of 0°F or lower) for South Dakota from 1900 to 2020. Dots show annual values. Bars show averages over 5-year periods (last bar is a 6-year average). The horizontal black line shows the long-term (entire period) average of 2.8 days. The number of very cold days has been below average since 2000, indicative of overall winter warming in the region. Sources: CISESS and NOAA NCEI. Data: GHCN-Daily from 25 long-term stations.

Like other Great Plains states, South Dakota experiences periodic episodes of severe drought, which can last for several years. The 1930s drought of the Dust Bowl era was one of the worst in the state’s history, when extreme heat exacerbated dry conditions. Not only was 1936 the driest summer on record, with only 3.5 inches of precipitation (4.6 inches below the long-term average), it was also the hottest summer, with an average temperature of 76.4°F (6.7°F above the long-term average). Recent drought years include 2012 and 2017. The 2017 Northern Plains drought, which primarily impacted North Dakota, South Dakota, and Montana, as well as adjacent Canadian Prairies, was devastating for livestock and agricultural production. Emerging in the spring, the drought rapidly spread and intensified throughout the summer, leading to crop failure, the culling of livestock herds, widespread wildfires, low water supplies, and losses exceeding $2.5 billion.

Snowfall is highly variable from year to year. For example, 20th-century annual snowfall totals at Menno varied from around 10 inches (in 1986–87 and 1999–2000) to almost 70 inches (1959–60 and 1983–84), and totals in this century have varied from less than 20 inches (2004–05 and 2011–12) to about 65 inches (2017–18; Figure 5). The year-to-year variations at this station are typical across South Dakota.

   
Annual Snowfall Totals at Menno
Graph of the observed annual snowfall totals at Menno, South Dakota, from 1940–41 to 2020–21 as described in the caption. Y-axis values range from 0 to 70 inches. Seasonal values show variability and range from about 10 to 68 inches. Totals across the period are mostly within the 30- to 50-inch range. The highest values of more than 65 inches occurred in 1959–60, 1968–69, 1983–84, and 2017–18. The lowest values of less than 15 inches occurred 1967-68, 1980–81, 1986–87, and 1999–2000.
Figure 5: Annual snowfall totals at Menno, South Dakota, from 1940–41 to 2020–21. Snowfall totals at Menno, in the eastern part of the state, vary widely from year to year. Since 2000, snowfall has ranged from less than 20 inches to around 65 inches. Source: MRCC.

South Dakota’s northern location and proximity to the typical U.S. winter storm track make it highly susceptible to heavy snows, high winds, and low wind chill temperatures. In any given year, the probability of a blizzard occurring somewhere in the state is greater than 50%. During October 3–5, 2013, western South Dakota was hit by a devastating early-season blizzard, with reported wind gusts as high as 70 mph and widespread snowfall amounts of more than 20 inches. Among long-term weather observation stations, Lead reported one of the highest snowfall amounts of 55 inches over the 3-day period, 42 of which fell on October 4. Rapid City reported 23.1 inches, the city’s second-highest 3-day snowfall total on record. Tens of thousands of livestock died from the event in South Dakota alone, with some herds losing more than 90% of their total populations.

With several large rivers running through the state, including the Missouri River, flooding is a great hazard. The frequency of extreme precipitation events has increased. Since 1990, South Dakota has averaged 22% more 2-inch rain events compared to the long-term average (Figure 6). Some historic rain and flooding events have occurred in recent years. The daily rainfall record (at official reporting sites) was set at Groton on May 6, 2007, with 8.74 inches. In June 2011, runoff from a record winter snowpack in the Rocky Mountains, along with heavy May rains in Montana, caused major flooding along the entire length of the Missouri River. Several towns (including Pierre) had to be evacuated and required rapid flood control measures. The extreme volume of water caused long-duration flooding; below the Oahe Dam, the Missouri River at Pierre was above flood stage from May 24 to September 7. South Dakota experienced extreme flooding in 2019 due to a combination of wet antecedent conditions, numerous winter storms, and unrelenting precipitation throughout the spring, late summer, and early autumn. Many flood records were set, particularly along the Missouri and James Rivers. The James River at Columbia was above flood stage for 518 days, which was unprecedented for the Missouri River basin. The 2019 growing season was greatly impacted. Planting delays were widespread, and South Dakota led the Nation in unplanted acres (3.9 million). The persistent wetness and below average summer maximum temperatures slowed the progress of crops, as well as the fall harvest. As of June 2020, U.S. Department of Agriculture crop indemnities exceeded $10 million for most counties in the eastern half of the state. One of the most devastating flash flooding events occurred during June 9–10, 1972, when torrential rainfall (unofficially, as much as 15 inches) fell overnight in the Black Hills area, causing the Canyon Lake Dam to fail. The resulting flooding in Rapid City killed more than 200 people, injured more than 3,000, destroyed 1,300 structures, and resulted in damages of more than $1 billion.

   
Observed Number of 2-Inch Extreme Precipitation Events
Graph of the observed annual number of 2-inch extreme precipitation events for South Dakota from 1900 to 2020 as described in the caption. Y-axis values range from 0 to 2.0 days. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0.2 to 1.6 days. Multiyear values also show variability and are above the long-term average of 0.7 days between 1900 and 1909 but are mostly below average between 1910 and 1984. Since the early 1970s, an upward trend is evident. Multiyear values are all near or above average since 1985. The 1955 to 1959 period, which is well below average, has the lowest multiyear value, and the 1905 to 1909 period, which is well above average, has the highest.
Figure 6: Observed annual number of 2-inch extreme precipitation events (days with precipitation of 2 inches or more) for South Dakota from 1900 to 2020. Dots show annual values. Bars show averages over 5-year periods (last bar is a 6-year average). The horizontal black line shows the long-term (entire period) average of 0.7 days. A typical reporting station experiences an event about once every 1 to 2 years. Since 1970, the number of 2-inch extreme precipitation events has been trending upward. Sources: CISESS and NOAA NCEI. Data: GHCN-Daily from 30 long-term stations.

Under a higher emissions pathway, historically unprecedented warming is projected during this century (Figure 1). Even under a lower emissions pathway, annual average temperatures are projected to most likely exceed historical record levels by the middle of the century. However, a large range of temperature increases is projected under both pathways, and under the lower pathway, a few projections are only slightly warmer than historical records. Increases in heat wave intensity are projected, but the intensity of cold waves is projected to decrease.

Annual precipitation is projected to increase, with the largest increases occurring during spring and winter (Figure 7). Increased winter and spring precipitation can impact South Dakota’s agricultural economy both positively (increased soil moisture) and negatively (loss of soil nutrients, planting delays, and yield losses). Increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events are also projected, potentially leading to increased runoff and flooding, which can reduce water quality and erode soils. Increased winter snowfall, rapid spring warming, and intense rainfall can combine to produce devastating floods.

   
Projected Change in Winter Precipitation
Map of the contiguous United States showing the projected changes in total winter precipitation by the middle of this century as described in the caption. Values range from less than minus 20 to greater than positive 15 percent. Winter precipitation is projected to increase across most of the country, with the exception of the far southern portions of the southwestern and Gulf states. The greatest, statistically significant increases are projected for the Northern Great Plains, the Midwest, and the Northeast. The majority of South Dakota is projected to see an increase of greater than 15 percent, with the exception of the northwest corner, with a projected increase of 10 to 15 percent. A statistically significant increase is projected for western and south-central South Dakota.
Figure 7: Projected changes in total winter (December–February) precipitation (%) for the middle of the 21st century compared to the late 20th century under a higher emissions pathway. Hatching represents areas where the majority of climate models indicate a statistically significant change. Sources: CISESS and NEMAC. Data: CMIP5.

The intensity of droughts is projected to increase. Droughts are a natural part of the climate system, and because the projected precipitation increases are expected to occur during the cooler months, South Dakota will remain vulnerable to periodic drought. Increases in evaporation rates due to rising temperatures may increase the rate of soil moisture loss and the intensity of naturally occurring droughts.

Details on observations and projections are available on the Technical Details and Additional Information page.

Lead Authors
Rebekah Frankson, Cooperative Institute for Satellite Earth System Studies (CISESS)
Kenneth E. Kunkel, Cooperative Institute for Satellite Earth System Studies (CISESS)
Contributing Authors
Sarah M. Champion, Cooperative Institute for Satellite Earth System Studies (CISESS)
David R. Easterling, NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information
Natalie A. Umphlett, NOAA High Plains Regional Climate Center, University of Nebraska–Lincoln
Crystal J. Stiles, NOAA High Plains Regional Climate Center, University of Nebraska–Lincoln
Recommended Citation
Frankson, R., K.E. Kunkel, S.M. Champion, D.R. Easterling, N.A. Umphlett, and C.J. Stiles, 2022: South Dakota State Climate Summary 2022. NOAA Technical Report NESDIS 150-SD. NOAA/NESDIS, Silver Spring, MD, 5 pp.

RESOURCES

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