South Dakota lies in the Northern Great Plains, straddling the transition from more humid conditions in the East to semiarid conditions in the West. Due to its location in the center of the North American continent, far from the moderating effects of oceans, the state experiences large temperature extremes. The lack of mountain ranges to the north exposes the state to bitterly cold Arctic air masses in winter, with typical winter low temperatures ranging from less than 5°F in the far northeast to more than 15°F in portions of the southwest. Average summer high temperatures range from around 75°F in portions of the Black Hills National Forest to more than 85°F in the south-central region (1991–2020 averages), with temperatures of 100°F or more occurring nearly every year. Annual precipitation totals vary across the state. Some northwestern parts of the state average about 16 inches per year, while the southeast corner of the state averages about 28 inches.
Time series of observed and projected temperature change (in degrees Fahrenheit) for South Dakota from 1900 to 2100 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from negative 6 to positive 22 degrees. Observed annual temperatures from 1900 to 2024 show variability and range from negative 3.5 to positive 4.9 degrees. By the end of the century, projected increases in temperature range from 1.8 to 8.8 degrees under the lower emissions pathway, from 4.7 to 11.8 degrees under the intermediate pathway, and from 9.1 to 19.7 degrees under the higher pathway.
Annual average temperatures in South Dakota have increased about 2.5°F since the beginning of the 20th century (Figure 1). Over the last 130 years (1895–2024), South Dakota’s annual average temperature has increased 0.2°F per decade. The warmest year on record was 2012, with a statewide average temperature of 49.3°F (4.5°F above the long-term average). Warming has occurred in all four seasons but has been largest in the winter (Figure 2a). Summers have not warmed as much (Figure 2b), which is characteristic of most states in the Great Plains and Midwest. The lack of summer warming is reflected in a generally near- or below-average number of extremely hot days since the 1990s (Figure 3a). Nighttime minimum temperatures have increased more than daytime maximums in recent years (Figure 3b), which might be attributed to an increase in absolute humidity. Winter warming is reflected in a generally below-average number of very cold days since the early 2000s (Figure 4). Additionally, over the past 130 years, winter temperatures have increased by 3.6°F per century, more than double the summer trend of 1.4°F per century.
Two graphs of the observed (a) winter and (b) summer average temperatures for South Dakota from 1895–96 to 2023–24 and 1895 to 2024, respectively, as described in the caption.
Panel A: Winter Average Temperature
Y-axis values range from 4 to 32 degrees Fahrenheit. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 6.4 to 28.7 degrees. Five-year values also show variability and are all near or below the long-term average of 18.7 degrees between 1895 and 1979, except for the 1930 to 1934 and 1940 to 1944 periods. Since 1980, 5-year values are all near or above average. The 1915 to 1919 period has the lowest 5-year value at 14.6 degrees, and the 2000 to 2004 and 2020 to 2024 periods have the highest at 22.4 degrees each.
Panel B: Summer Average TemperatureY-axis values range from 62 to 78 degrees Fahrenheit. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 63.2 to 76.4 degrees. Five-year values also show variability and are all below the long-term average of 69.8 degrees between 1895 and 1929, above average between 1930 and 1939, and all near or below average between 1940 and 1954. Since 1955, 5-year values are all near or above average except for the 1965 to 1969 and 1990 to 1994 periods. The 1905 to 1908 period has the lowest 5-year value at 67.7 degrees, and the 1930 to 1934 and 1935 to 1939 periods have the highest at 72.5 and 72.6 degrees, respectively.
Two graphs of the observed annual number of (a) extremely hot days and (b) warm nights for South Dakota from 1900 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Panel A: Extremely Hot Days
Y-axis values range from 0 to 36 days. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0 to 33.5 days. Five-year values also show variability and are all near or below the long-term average of 4.6 between 1900 and 1929, mostly near or above average between 1930 and 1989, and all near or below average since 1990. The 1905 to 1909 period has the lowest 5-year value at 1.1 days, and the 1930 to 1934 and 1935 to 1939 periods have the highest at 14.9 and 15.3 days, respectively.
Panel B: Warm NightsY-axis values range from 0 to 16 nights. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0.1 to 14.0 nights. Five-year values also show variability and are all below the long-term average of 3.0 nights between 1900 and 1929, above average between 1930 and 1939, and mostly below average between 1940 and 1989. Five-year values are near or above average between 1995 and 2014 but are all below average since 2015. The 1905 to 1909 period has the lowest 5-year value at 1.4 nights, and the 1930 to 1934 and 1935 to 1939 periods have the highest at 5.9 and 7.0 nights, respectively.
Graph of the observed annual number of very cold days for South Dakota from 1900 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from 0 to 24 days. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0 to 19.7 days. Five-year values also show variability and are mostly near or above the long-term average of 3.2 days between 1900 and 1939, all near or below average between 1940 and 1959, and all near average between 1960 and 1999. Since 2000, 5-year values are all near or below average. The 1955 to 1959 and 2000 to 2004 periods have the lowest 5-year values at 1.3 days each, and the 1915 to 1919 and 1935 to 1939 periods have the highest at 6.9 and 7.0 days, respectively.
Precipitation varies across the year and from year to year. Statewide total annual precipitation has varied from a low of 10.9 inches in 1936 to a high of 31.4 inches in 2019 (Figure 5a). Summer precipitation has generally been near or above average since the 1990s (Figure 5b). Most of the state’s precipitation falls between April and September, when thunderstorm activity is highest. The most severe thunderstorms can produce hail, high winds, and tornadoes. A hailstone from a severe thunderstorm that fell on July 23, 2010, in Vivian holds the national record for hail weight (1.938 pounds). The frequency of extreme precipitation events in South Dakota has increased in recent years. The number of 2-inch precipitation events has generally been near or above average since the 1990s (Figure 6).
Two graphs of the observed total (a) annual and (b) summer precipitation for South Dakota from 1895 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Panel A: Total Annual Precipitation
Y-axis values range from 8 to 36 inches. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 10.9 to 31.4 inches. Five-year values also show variability and are mostly near or below the long-term average of 19.3 inches between 1895 and 1989 but are all above average since 1990 except for the 2000 to 2004 and 2020 to 2024 periods. The 1930 to 1934 and 1935 to 1939 periods have the lowest 5-year values at 15.5 inches each, and the 1995 to 1999 and 2015 to 2019 periods have the highest at 23.2 inches each.
Panel B: Total Summer PrecipitationY-axis values range from 2 to 16 inches. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 3.5 to 13.6 inches. Five-year values also show variability and are mostly near or above the long-term average of 8.1 inches between 1895 and 1924, all below average between 1925 and 1939, mostly near or above average between 1940 and 1969, and a roughly equal mix of above and below average between 1970 and 2004. Since 2005, 5-year values are all near or above average. The 1970 to 1974 period has the lowest 5-year value at 6.0 inches, and the 1990 to 1994 period has the highest at 9.9 inches.
Graph of the observed annual number of 2-inch extreme precipitation events for South Dakota from 1900 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from 0.0 to 1.5 events. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0.1 to 1.3 events. Five-year values also show variability and are above the long-term average of 0.6 events between 1900 and 1909, mostly below average between 1910 and 1989, and mostly above average since 1990. The 1955 to 1959 period has the lowest 5-year value at 0.3 events, and the 1900 to 1904 and 1905 to 1909 periods have the highest at 0.85 and 0.9 events, respectively.
While most of the state averages at least 30 inches of snow annually, portions of the Black Hills National Forest can receive upwards of 70 inches annually (1991–2020 averages), with the city of Lead receiving more than 180 inches per year on average. Snowfall is highly variable from year to year, however. For example, 20th-century annual snowfall totals at Menno, in the southeast, varied from around 10 inches (in 1986–87 and 1999–2000) to almost 70 inches (1959–60, 1968–69, and 1983–84), and totals in this century have varied from less than 20 inches (2004–05, 2011–12, and 2021–22) to about 65 inches (2017–18; Figure 7). The year-to-year variations at this station are typical across South Dakota.
Time series of the observed annual snowfall totals at Menno, South Dakota, from 1940–41 to 2023–24 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from 0 to 80 inches. Seasonal values show variability and range from about 10 to 68 inches. Totals show season-to-season variability and are mostly between 20 and 50 inches across the entire period. The highest totals of more than 65 inches were recorded in 1959–60, 1968–69, 1983–84, and 2017–18. The lowest totals of less than 15 inches were recorded in 1967-68, 1980–81, 1986–87, and 1999–2000.
South Dakota’s northern location and its proximity to the typical US winter storm track make it highly susceptible to heavy snows, high winds, and low wind chill temperatures. South Dakota, along with North Dakota and Nebraska, has a greater than 50% probability—the highest in the Nation—of a blizzard occurring somewhere in the state in any given year. During October 3–5, 2013, western South Dakota was hit by a devastating early-season blizzard, with reported wind gusts as high as 70 mph and widespread snowfall amounts of more than 20 inches. Among long-term weather observation stations, Lead reported one of the highest snowfall amounts: 55 inches over the 3-day period, with 42 inches falling on October 4. Rapid City reported 23.1 inches, the city’s second-highest 3-day snowfall total on record. Tens of thousands of livestock died from the event in South Dakota alone, with some herds losing more than 90% of their total populations.
With several large rivers running through the state, including the Missouri River, flooding is a major hazard. One of the most devastating flash flooding events occurred during June 9–10, 1972, when torrential rainfall (unofficially, as much as 15 inches) fell overnight in the Black Hills area, causing the Canyon Lake Dam to fail. The resulting flooding in Rapid City killed more than 200 people, injured more than 3,000, destroyed 1,300 structures, and resulted in damages of more than $1 billion. Some historic rain and flooding events have also occurred in recent years. The official daily rainfall record for the state was set at Groton on May 6, 2007, with a total 8.7 inches. In June 2011, runoff from a record winter snowpack in the Rocky Mountains, along with heavy May rains in Montana, caused major flooding along the entire length of the Missouri River. South Dakota also experienced extreme flooding in 2019 due to a combination of wet antecedent conditions, numerous winter storms, and unrelenting precipitation throughout the spring, late summer, and early autumn. Many flood records were set, and the 2019 growing season was greatly impacted. More recently, a record-setting flood event occurred in late June 2024 in southeastern South Dakota, with more than 13 inches of rain falling across the area over a 3-day period. On June 22, the Big Sioux River peaked at 45 feet, more than 7 feet above the previous record.
Like other Great Plains states, South Dakota experiences periodic episodes of severe drought, which can last for several years. The 1930s drought of the Dust Bowl era was one of the worst in the state’s history, when extreme heat exacerbated dry conditions. Not only was 1936 the driest summer on record with only 3.5 inches of precipitation (4.6 inches below the long-term average; Figure 5b), it was also the hottest summer, with an average temperature of 76.4°F (6.6°F above the long-term average; Figure 2b). Recent drought years include 2012 and 2017. The 2017 Northern Plains drought—which primarily impacted North Dakota, South Dakota, and Montana, as well as the adjacent Canadian Prairies region—was devastating for livestock and agricultural production. Emerging in the spring, the drought rapidly spread and intensified throughout the summer, leading to crop failure, the culling of livestock herds, widespread wildfires, low water supplies, and US agricultural losses exceeding $2.6 billion.
Under the intermediate and higher emissions pathways, historically unprecedented warming is projected during this century (Figure 1). Even under the lower emissions pathway, most projections show annual average temperatures exceeding historical levels by the middle of the century. However, projections for all three pathways show a large range of potential temperature increases, and some projections for the lower pathway are comparable to recent observed values. Increases in heat wave intensity are projected, but the intensity of cold waves is projected to decrease.
Under the intermediate emissions pathway, projected increases in total winter precipitation by midcentury are statistically significant for the southwestern corner of the state but are less certain elsewhere (Figure 8). There is also uncertainty in annual, spring, summer, and fall precipitation. Increased cold-season precipitation can impact South Dakota’s agricultural economy both positively (increased soil moisture) and negatively (loss of soil nutrients, planting delays, and yield losses). Increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events are also projected, potentially leading to increased runoff and flooding, which can reduce water quality and erode soils. Increased winter snowfall, rapid spring warming, and intense rainfall can combine to produce devastating floods.
Map of the contiguous United States showing the projected changes in total winter precipitation by the middle of this century as described in the caption. The state of South Dakota is outlined in black.
Legend values range from less than negative 10 to greater than positive 15 percent. Note: unless otherwise specified, projected values are not statistically significant.
South Dakota
All of South Dakota is projected to see increases in total winter precipitation of 10 to 15 percent, with statistically significant increases in the 10 to 15 percent range expected in a small area of the southwestern corner.
Contiguous US
Projected increases in total winter precipitation are as follows: up to 5 percent across a narrow swath running westward from western Georgia to southern California; 5 to 10 percent in the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, southern Midwest, portions of the Great Plains and most of the West; and 10 to 15 percent in the majority of the Northeast and upper Midwest as well as portions of the northern Great Plains and Intermountain West, with statistically significant increases in the 10 to 15 percent range for the Northeast, the northernmost regions of the upper Midwest, and portions of the northern Great Plains.
Projected decreases are as follows: up to 5 percent for southern regions of the Southwest and northern and central Texas; 5 to 10 percent for southern New Mexico and western Texas; and 5 to 10 percent or greater for southwestern Texas.
Droughts, a natural part of South Dakota’s climate, are projected to increase in intensity due to higher temperatures and the associated increase in evaporation rates and soil moisture loss. The frequency and intensity of wildfires is also projected to increase from mid-summer through early fall.
SOURCES
- Carter, J.M., J.E. Williamson, and R.W. Teller, 2002: The 1972 Black Hills–Rapid City Flood Revisited. USGS Fact Sheet FS-037-02. U.S. Geological Survey, Rapid City, SD. https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/fs-037-02/
- HPRCC, n.d.: Climate Summaries. University of Nebraska–Lincoln, High Plains Regional Climate Center, accessed June 9, 2025. https://hprcc.unl.edu/climatesummaries.php
- Jencso, K., B. Parker, M. Downey, T. Hadwen, A. Howell, J. Rattling Leaf, L. Edwards, A. Akyuz, D. Kluck, D. Peck, M. Rath, M. Syner, N. Umphlett, H. Wilmer, V. Barnes, D. Clabo, B. Fuchs, M. He, S. Johnson, J. Kimball, D. Longknife, D. Martin, N. Nikerson, J. Sage, and T. Fransen, 2019: Flash Drought: Lessons Learned from the 2017 Drought Across the U.S. Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Integrated Drought Information System, Boulder, CO, 76 pp. https://www.drought.gov/sites/default/files/2020-09/NIDIS_LL_FlashDrought_2017_Final_6.6.2019.pdf
- Kunkel, K.E., M. Palecki, L. Ensor, K.G. Hubbard, D. Robinson, K. Redmond, and D. Easterling, 2009: Trends in twentieth-century U.S. snowfall using a quality-controlled dataset. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 26 (1), 33–44. https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JTECHA1138.1
- Kunkel, K.E., L.E. Stevens, S.E. Stevens, L. Sun, E. Janssen, D. Wuebbles, M.C. Kruk, D.P. Thomas, M.D. Shulski, N.A. Umphlett, K.G. Hubbard, K. Robbins, L. Romolo, A. Akyuz, T.B. Pathak, T.R. Bergantino, and J.G. Dobson, 2013: Regional Climate Trends and Scenarios for the U.S. National Climate Assessment Part 4. Climate of the U.S. Great Plains. NOAA Technical Report NESDIS 142-4. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service, Washington, DC, 91 pp. https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/56809
- MRCC, n.d.: cli-MATE: MRCC Application Tools Environment. Midwestern Regional Climate Center, accessed June 9, 2025. https://mrcc.purdue.edu/newclimate
- NCDC, n.d.: Climate of South Dakota. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, NC, 4 pp. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/climate-normals-deprecated/access/clim60/states/Clim_SD_01.pdf
- NCEI, n.d.: Climate at a Glance. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Centers for Environmental Information, accessed June 9, 2025. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/
- NCEI, n.d.: National Climate Report. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Centers for Environmental Information, accessed June 9, 2025. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/national
- NCEI, n.d.: U.S. Climate Normals. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Centers for Environmental Information, accessed June 9, 2025. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/us-climate-normals
- Nippert, P., 2024: South Dakota flooding, June 20–22, 2024. Climate Mainstreet, August 9, 2024. University of Nebraska–Lincoln, High Plains Regional Climate Center. https://hprcc.unl.edu/blog/2024/08/09/south-dakota-flooding-june-20-22-2024/
- NWS, n.d.: Flooding in South Dakota. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service, Silver Spring, MD, accessed June 9, 2025. https://www.weather.gov/safety/flood-states-sd
- NWS, n.d.: United States Flood Loss Report—Water Year 2011. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service, Silver Spring, MD, accessed June 9, 2025. https://web.archive.org/web/20161221111754/http://www.nws.noaa.gov/hic/summaries/WY2011.pdf
- Schwartz, R.M. and T.W. Schmidlin, 2002: Climatology of blizzards in the conterminous United States, 1959–2000. Journal of Climate, 15 (13), 1765–1772. DOI:10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<1765:cobitc>2.0.co;2. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/15/13/1520-0442_2002_015_1765_cobitc_2.0.co_2.xml
- Umphlett, N., D. Kluck, and D. Todey, 2020: Extreme Wetness of 2019: Missouri River Basin. University of Nebraska–Lincoln, High Plains Regional Climate Center, Lincoln, NE, 6 pp. https://hprcc.unl.edu/pdf/2019Extremes.pdf
- USGCRP, 2017: Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I. Wuebbles, D.J., D.W. Fahey, K.A. Hibbard, D.J. Dokken, B.C. Stewart, and T.K. Maycock, Eds. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA, 470 pp. https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/19486
- USGCRP, 2018: Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II. Reidmiller, D.R., C.W. Avery, D.R. Easterling, K.E. Kunkel, K.L.M. Lewis, T.K. Maycock, and B.C. Stewart, Eds. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA, 1515 pp. https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/19487
- USGCRP, 2023: Fifth National Climate Assessment. Crimmins, A.R., C.W. Avery, D.R. Easterling, K.E. Kunkel, B.C. Stewart, and T.K. Maycock, Eds. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA. https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/61592