Tennessee’s central location in the Southeast US exposes it to warm and humid air from the Gulf of America (formerly Gulf of Mexico) and hot and cold air masses from the interior of North America. Its climate is characterized by moderately large variations in temperature and abundant precipitation. For most of the state, summers are warm and humid, while winters are cool with occasional episodes of very cold Arctic air. Temperatures decrease across the state as elevation increases, averaging a 3°F decline per 1,000 feet increase in elevation. The higher elevations of the state, such as the Cumberland Plateau (average elevation of 2,000 feet) and the Great Smoky Mountains (peaks up to 6,000 feet), have noticeably lower average temperatures than the Great Valley of East Tennessee (which slopes from 1,500 feet in the north to 700 feet in the south). Average low temperatures in January range from less than 25°F in the far northeast to more than 30°F in the southwest (1991–2020 averages). Average high temperatures in the summer range from the low 80s (°F) in the East Tennessee Mountains to the low 90s in West Tennessee. Historical observed extreme temperatures for the state range from −32°F in Mountain City in the winter of 1917 to 113°F in Perryville in the summer of 1930. Annual precipitation generally ranges from 45 to 60 inches across Tennessee, with greater totals at high elevations. Annual average snowfall ranges from a modest 1–4 inches in southern parts of the state to nearly a foot in the northeast, with higher amounts in the Great Smoky Mountains.
Time series of observed and projected temperature change (in degrees Fahrenheit) for Tennessee from 1900 to 2100 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from negative 4 to positive 18 degrees. Observed annual temperatures from 1900 to 2024 show variability and range from negative 2.6 to positive 2.7 degrees. By the end of the century, projected increases in temperature range from 1.8 to 7.3 degrees under the lower emissions pathway, from 3.9 to 9.7 degrees under the intermediate pathway, and from 7.6 to 15.5 degrees under the higher pathway.
Annual average temperatures in Tennessee have risen rapidly since the 1970s, with the last decade (2015–2024) being the warmest on record (Figure 1). However, Tennessee and neighboring states in the southeastern US are among the few locations globally that have experienced relatively little overall warming since 1900. Tennessee has seen a series of shifting trends—warming from the early 20th century into the 1930s, then substantial cooling until the 1970s, followed by the recent rapid warming—resulting in a net increase since 1900 of a little more than 0.5°F, compared to 2.2°F for the contiguous US as a whole. Hypothesized causes for this difference in warming rates in parts of the Southeast US include increased cloud cover and precipitation, increased small particles from coal burning, natural factors related to forest regrowth, decreased heat flux due to irrigation, and multidecadal variability in North Atlantic and tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures.
Winter average temperatures have generally been near or above average since the 1990s (Figure 2a), approximating or exceeding the highs of the early 1930s and early 1950s; 8 of the last 10 winters were above average. Summer average temperatures were generally highest in the 1930s, early 1940s, and early 1950s but have been mostly near or above average since the 2005–2019 period (Figure 2b). The number of extremely hot days peaked in the early 1930s and early 1950s (Figure 3a), but since the late 1950s, the number of such days has generally been near or below average. The number of very warm nights has generally been near or above the long-term average since the late 1990s, although record-high values occurred during the 1930s Dust Bowl era (Figure 3b).
Two graphs of the observed (a) winter and (b) summer average temperatures for Tennessee from 1895–96 to 2023–24 and 1895 to 2024, respectively, as described in the caption.
Panel A: Winter Average Temperature
Y-axis values range from 28 to 52 degrees Fahrenheit. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 31.0 to 47.1 degrees. Five-year values also show variability and are all near or below the long-term average of 39.1 degrees between 1895 and 1919, mostly near or above average between 1920 and 1954, and all near or below average between 1955 and 1989. Since 1990, 5-year values are all near or above average except for the 2010 to 2014 period. The 1975 to 1979 period has the lowest 5-year value at 35.7 degrees, and the 2020 to 2024 period has the highest at 42.5 degrees.
Panel B: Summer Average TemperatureY-axis values range from 70 to 80 degrees Fahrenheit. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 72.4 to 79.4 degrees. Five-year values also show variability and are above the long-term average of 75.8 degrees between 1895 and 1904, all near or below average between 1905 and 1929, mostly above average between 1935 and 1954, and all below average between 1955 and 1979. Since 1980, 5-year values are all near or above average except for the 1990 to 1994 and 2000 to 2004 periods. The 1970 to 1974 period has the lowest 5-year value at 74.4 degrees, and the 1930 to 1934 and 1950 to 1954 periods have the highest at 76.9 degrees each.
Two graphs of the observed annual number of (a) extremely hot days and (b) very warm nights for Tennessee from 1900 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Panel A: Extremely Hot Days
Y-axis values range from 0 to 24 days. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0 to 19.6 days. Five-year values also show variability and are below the long-term average of 2.2 days between 1900 and 1909, mostly above average between 1910 and 1954, and all near or below average since 1955. The 1970 to 1974 and 2015 to 2019 periods have the lowest five-year values at 0.1 days each, and the 1930 to 1934 and 1950 to 1954 periods have the highest at 8.0 and 7.9 days, respectively.
Panel B: Very Warm NightsY-axis values range from 0 to 10 nights. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0.1 to 8.8 nights. Five-year values also show variability and are mostly near or above the long-term average of 2.3 nights between 1900 and 1954 but are all below average between 1955 and 1994 except for the 1980 to 1984 period. Since 1990, 5-year values are all near or above average except for the 2000 to 2004 period. The 1970 to 1974 period has the lowest 5-year value at 0.3 nights, and the 1930 to 1934 period has the highest at 4.5 nights.
Statewide total annual precipitation in Tennessee is highly variable from year-to-year and has ranged from a low of 36.4 inches in 1941 to a high of 67.1 inches in 2018 (Figure 4a). Annual precipitation has mostly been above average since the 1990s, although the years 2005 through 2008 were consistently drier than average. Total summer precipitation exhibits no long-term trend, although 2015–2024 was the wettest decade on record (Figure 4b). The number of 3-inch extreme precipitation events has generally been near or above the long-term average since the 1970s (Figure 5).
Two graphs of observed total (a) annual and (b) summer precipitation for Tennessee from 1895 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Panel A: Total Annual Precipitation
Y-axis values range from 32 to 72 inches. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 36.4 to 67.1 inches. Five-year values also show variability and are mostly near or below the long-term average of 52.3 inches between 1895 and 1969 but are all near or above average since 1970 except for the 1985 to 1989 and 2005 to 2009 periods. The 1940 to 1944 period has the lowest 5-year value at 44.9 inches, and the 2015 to 2019 has the highest at 59.3 inches.
Panel B: Total Summer PrecipitationY-axis values range from 4 to 20 inches. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 6.2 to 19.2 inches. Five-year values also show variability and are mostly near or above the long-term average of 12.7 inches between 1895 and 1929 but are all near or below average between 1930 and 1994 except for the 1970 to 1974 period. Since 1995, 5-year values are all near or above average except for the 2005 to 2009 period. The 1930 to 1934, 1950 to 1954, and 1980 to 1984 periods have the lowest 5-year values at 11.2, 11.2, and 11.1 inches, respectively, and the 2015 to 2019 period has the highest at 14.9 inches.
Graph of the observed annual number of 3-inch extreme precipitation events for Tennessee from 1900 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from 0.0 to 2.5 events. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0.1 to 2.2 events. Five-year values also show variability and are all below the long-term average of 0.7 events between 1900 and 1969 except for the 1935 to 1939 period. Since 1970, 5-year values are all near or above average except for the 1985 to 1989 and 2005 to 2009 periods. The 1905 to 1909 period has the lowest 5-year value at 0.4 events, and the 2000 to 2004 period has the highest at 1.3 events.
Extreme weather events that occur frequently in Tennessee include severe thunderstorms, flooding, tornadoes, droughts, heat waves, cold waves, and winter storms. The Flood of 2010 was caused by record-breaking amounts of rainfall in early May. The National Weather Service reported a new 2-day rainfall record for Nashville during May 1–2, 2010, when 13.6 inches fell, shattering the previous record of 6.7 inches, which was set during September 13–14, 1979. A new state record for 24-hour precipitation was then set over August 21–22, 2021, when 20.7 inches of rain fell in the McEwen area of Middle Tennessee. Multiple weather stations experienced more than 3 inches of rainfall over three consecutive hours. This resulted in deadly flash flooding downstream along the Trace Creek in Waverly. An area of 800–1,000 square miles experienced rainfall totals that would be expected to occur less than once every 1,000 years. The remnants of hurricanes occasionally track across the state. In late September 2024, devastating flooding occurred in western North Carolina and eastern Tennessee after the remnants of Hurricane Helene brought historic rainfall amounts to the Southern Appalachian region. The flooding was exacerbated by a precursor rainfall event that occurred immediately prior to the storm, which saturated the ground and increased runoff into local rivers and creeks. The storm led to 18 confirmed fatalities in Tennessee and caused widespread power outages and damage to critical infrastructure.
Tennessee experiences a relatively high number of tornadoes, averaging 30 tornadoes and 7 related fatalities per year over the period 1995–2024. Tornadoes occur more frequently in Middle Tennessee and can occur in any month but are more common in the spring. One of the most active and destructive tornado months on record for the entire United States occurred in April 2011, with a total of 542 tornadoes. Tennessee reported 93 tornadoes for that month, surpassing a historical record of 42 tornadoes in April 1974. The deadliest tornado event in the state, however, occurred during April 29–30, 1909, when a devastating outbreak killed 62 people and injured more than 200. More recently, a tornado outbreak during March 2–3, 2000, caused 25 fatalities and led to more than $1.6 billion in damages. The event included a damaging EF3 tornado in the Nashville metropolitan area and a violent EF4 tornado that impacted the Cookeville region.
Although Tennessee generally receives abundant rainfall, droughts are a regular occurrence. Both long-term and flash droughts (the rapid onset or intensification of drought) can cause negative impacts on Tennessee’s agriculture and water resources, as well as increase wildfire risk. Recent notable events in the state include the multiyear drought of 2006–2008 and a high-impact drought in 2016, which was a factor in the spread of several wildfires, including the Great Smoky Mountains wildfires. The fires severely impacted Gatlinburg and Pigeon Forge in late November of that year, claiming at least 14 lives and destroying more than 1,600 structures.
Winter weather hazards include occasional damaging snow and ice storms. One of the most notable winter storms, the “Blizzard of ’93,” occurred on March 12, 1993, in East Tennessee. Considered one of the largest snowstorms of the 20th century, the storm produced a record-breaking 15 inches of snow in the Knoxville area and up to 5 feet of snow in the Great Smoky Mountains. Millions of people lost power, and hundreds were trapped in their homes for several days. During February 9–13, 1994, a devastating ice storm struck much of the southern United States. In Tennessee, 5–8 inches of rain (much of it freezing) fell in some locations. About 770,000 utility customers lost power (some for up to a month), and damages totaled about $500 million (second behind Mississippi). More recently, in the western part of the state during February 11–19, 2021, temperatures remained below freezing for nine consecutive days and fell to around 0°F or below, with the lowest temperature being –5°F at Germantown. During that same period, two back-to-back winter storms on February 14–15 and 17–18 produced the highest snow totals seen in many years (around 10 inches in some locations) for Middle Tennessee. The storms also produced freezing rain and sleet, with severe icing causing widespread damage.
Under the intermediate and higher emissions pathways, historically unprecedented warming is projected during this century (Figure 1). Even under the lower emissions pathway, most projections show annual average temperatures exceeding historical levels by the middle of the century. However, projections for all three pathways show a large range of potential temperature increases, and some projections for the lower pathway are comparable to recent observed values. Heat wave intensity is projected to increase, while the intensity of cold waves is projected to decrease.
Under the intermediate emissions pathway, projections indicate increases in total annual precipitation across Tennessee by midcentury; however, the projected changes are not statistically significant (Figure 6). There is similar uncertainty in projections for seasonal precipitation, although models generally indicate statewide increases in spring, summer, and winter but increases and decreases in fall. The frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events are projected to increase, potentially increasing the frequency and intensity of floods.
Map of the contiguous United States showing the projected changes in total annual precipitation by the middle of this century as described in the caption. The state of Tennessee is outlined in black.
Legend values range from less than negative 10 to greater than positive 15 percent. Note: unless otherwise specified, projected values are not statistically significant.
Tennessee
The entire state of Tennessee is projected to see increases in total annual precipitation of up to 5 percent.
Contiguous USProjected increases in total annual precipitation are as follows: up to 5 percent for most of the Southeast, as well as the central Midwest, central Great Plains, central West, and Northwest; and 5 to 10 percent for all of the Northeast, as well as portions of the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, northern Midwest, northern Great Plains, and Pacific Northwest, with statistically significant increases in the 5 to 10 percent range for the Northeast, northeastern Midwest, and portions of the northern Great Plains and Pacific Northwest.
Projected decreases of up to 5 percent are expected across most of Texas, New Mexico, and Arizona, as well as southern California.
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