2025 State Climate Summaries for the United States

Stevens, L.E.; Anheuser, J.; Essig, M.R.; Lamb, A.D.; Maycock, T.K.; McCarrick, A.L.; Visovatti, A.

doi:doi.org/10.52750/153632

Virginia has a humid climate with very warm summers and moderately cold winters. There is substantial regional variation in climate due to the state's diverse geographic features, which include the Appalachian and Blue Ridge Mountains in the west and the Atlantic coastal region in the east. Temperature and precipitation patterns are highly influenced by these geographic features, and the west and north tend to be cooler and drier than the eastern coastal region. Winter low temperatures range from the low 20s (°F) at high elevations to more than 35°F along the coast (1991–2020 averages). Summer high temperatures range from around 80°F in the Appalachians to around 90°F in the far southeast. Virginia summers are often humid, with frequent thunderstorms in the afternoons and evenings. Rainfall amounts are generally higher east of the Blue Ridge Mountains and lower to the west. For example, annual precipitation is less than 40 inches in the Shenandoah Valley, compared to around 50 inches along the tidewater coastal region. Some high-elevation locations, however, receive more than 55 inches per year. Annual snowfall totals range from more than 45 inches in the Appalachian Mountains to less than 10 inches along the coastal plain and parts of southern Virginia.

Figure 1: Observed and projected changes (compared to the 1901–1960 average) in near-surface annual average air temperature for Virginia. Observed data are for 1900–2024. Projected changes for 2015–2100 were generated using global climate models to explore three possible futures, associated with lower, intermediate, and higher greenhouse gas emissions pathways (the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively). Temperatures in Virginia (black line) have increased more than 1.5°F since the beginning of the 20th century (based on a linear trend). Warming in recent decades has been much more rapid, with temperatures increasing at a rate of about 0.5°F per decade over 1970–2024. Shading indicates the range of annual temperatures from the set of models. Observed temperatures are generally within the envelope of model simulations of the historical period (light gray shading). Less warming is expected under a lower emissions future (the coldest end-of-century projections being about 2.2°F warmer than the 1901–1960 average; blue shading) and more warming under a higher emissions future (the hottest end-of-century projections being about 12.2°F warmer than the hottest year in the observed record; red shading), while the intermediate emissions future leads to moderate warming (with end-of-century projections ranging from about 4.0°F to 9.6°F above the 1901–1960 average; dark gray shading). Adapted from Runkle et al. 2022. Data: NClimDiv and CMIP6.

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Time series of observed and projected temperature change (in degrees Fahrenheit) for Virginia from 1900 to 2100 as described in the caption.

Y-axis values range from negative 4 to positive 18 degrees. Observed annual temperatures from 1900 to 2024 show variability and range from negative 2.6 to positive 3.2 degrees. By the end of the century, projected increases in temperature range from 2.2 to 7.7 degrees under the lower emissions pathway, from 4.1 to 9.8 degrees under the intermediate pathway, and from 7.7 to 15.8 degrees under the higher pathway.

Since the beginning of the 20th century, annual average temperatures have increased more than 1.5°F in Virginia (Figure 1). Temperatures increased slightly in the early part of the 20th century, followed by a period of cooling in the 1960s. The state has warmed rapidly since then, with temperatures increasing about 2.5°F from 1970 to 2024; 2015–2024 was the warmest decade on record and 2024 the warmest year. All 5-year averages for summer temperature since the 2005–2009 period have exceeded those of the 1930s and early 1940s (Figure 2). The number of very hot days and very warm nights has generally been near or below average since the late 1940s (Figures 3a and 3b). Very cold nights (nights with a minimum temperature of 0°F or lower) are relatively rare in Virginia, but the number of these nights has mostly been below average since the 1990s (Figure 4).

Figure 2: Observed summer (June–August) average temperature for Virginia from 1895 to 2024. Dots show annual values. Bars show averages over 5-year periods. The horizontal black line shows the long-term (entire period) average of 73.2°F. Summer temperatures have been increasing since the early 1970s, and the four highest 5-year averages were recorded between 2005 and 2024. Adapted from Runkle et al. 2022. Data: NClimDiv.

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Graph of the observed summer average temperature for Virginia from 1895 to 2024 as described in the caption.

Y-axis values range from 68 to 78 degrees Fahrenheit. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 70.0 to 76.6 degrees. Five-year values also show variability and are above the long-term average of 73.2 degrees between 1895 and 1904, all below average between 1905 and 1929, all above average between 1930 and 1954 except for the 1945 to 1949 period, and all below average between 1955 and 1984. All 5-year values since 1985 are near or above average. The 1915 to 1919 and 1960 to 1964 periods have the lowest 5-year values at 72.0 and 72.1 degrees, respectively, and the 2010 to 2014, 2015 to 2019, and 2020 to 2024 periods have the highest at 74.4, 74.4, and 74.6 degrees, respectively.

Figure 3: Observed annual number of (a) very hot days (maximum temperature of 95°F or higher) and (b) very warm nights (minimum temperature of 75°F or higher) for Virginia from 1900 to 2024. Dots show annual values. Bars show averages over 5-year periods. The horizontal black lines show the long-term (entire period) averages of (a) 4.5 days and (b) about 0.5 nights. The number of very hot days and very warm nights peaked in the early 1930s and have remained mostly near or below the long-term average since the late 1940s. Adapted from Runkle et al. 2022. Data: GHCN-Daily.

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Two graphs of the observed annual number of (a) very hot days and (b) very warm nights for Virginia from 1900 to 2024 as described in the caption.

Panel A: Very Hot Days
Y-axis values range from 0 to 28 days. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0.3 to 24.7 days. Five-year values also show variability and are mostly near or above the long-term average of 4.5 days between 1900 and 1954 but are mostly near or below average since 1955. The 1970 to 1974 period has the lowest 5-year value at 1.3 days, and the 1930 to 1934 and 1985 to 1989 periods have the highest at 12.2 and 7.8 days, respectively.

Panel B: Very Warm Nights
Y-axis values range from 0 to 4 nights. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0.1 to 3.8 nights. Five-year values also show variability and are mostly near or above the long-term average of about 0.5 nights between 1900 and 1944 but are all near or below average since 1945. The 1960 to 1964 and 2000 to 2004 periods have the lowest 5-year values at 0.2 nights each, and the 1900 to 1904 and 1930 to 1934 periods have the highest at 1.2 and 1.4 nights, respectively.

Figure 4: Observed annual number of very cold nights (minimum temperature of 0°F or lower) for Virginia from 1900 to 2024. Dots show annual values. Bars show averages over 5-year periods. The horizontal black line shows the long-term (entire period) average of 1.5 nights. Very cold nights are rare in Virginia. The number of these nights was generally above the long-term average in the 1910s and again from the early 1960s through the 1980s but has mostly been below average since the 1990s. Adapted from Runkle et al. 2022. Data: GHCN-Daily.

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Graph of the observed annual number of very cold nights for Virginia from 1900 to 2024 as described in the caption.

Y-axis values range from 0 to 8 nights. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0 to 7.5 nights. Five-year values also show variability and are all near or above the long-term average of 1.5 nights between 1900 and 1919 except for the 1905 to 1909 period, all near or below average between 1920 and 1959, and all near or above average between 1960 and 1989. Since 1990, 5-year values are all near or below average. The 1950 to 1954 period has the lowest 5-year value at 0.4 nights, and the 1915 to 1919 and 1985 to 1989 periods have the highest at 3.0 and 3.2 nights, respectively.

Statewide total annual precipitation for Virginia has ranged from a low of 27.4 inches in 1930 to a high of 63.5 inches in 2018 (Figure 5a). Annual precipitation shows an upward trend since the 1970s, with 5-year averages mostly near or above the long-term average since then. Total summer precipitation is highly variable and has generally been near or above average since the early 2000s (Figure 5b). Since the 1990s, the number of 2-inch extreme precipitation events has mostly been near or above average (Figure 6).

Figure 5: Observed total (a) annual and (b) summer (June–August) precipitation for Virginia from 1895 to 2024. Dots show annual values. Bars show averages over 5-year periods. The horizontal black lines show the long-term (entire period) averages of (a) 43.5 inches and (b) 12.9 inches. Total annual precipitation shows an upward trend since the late 1970s, with 5-year averages being mostly near or above the long-term average since then. Summer precipitation is highly variable but has generally been near or above average since the early 2000s. Adapted from Runkle et al. 2022. Data: NClimDiv.

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Two graphs of the observed total (a) annual and (b) summer precipitation for Virginia from 1895 to 2024 as described in the caption.

Panel A: Total Annual Precipitation
Y-axis values range from 20 to 68 inches. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 24.7 to 63.5 inches. Five-year values also show variability and are mostly near or below the long-term average of 43.5 inches between 1895 and 1969 but are mostly near or above average since 1970. The 1930 to 1934 and 1965 to 1969 periods have the lowest 5-year values at 38.7 and 38.0 inches, respectively, and the 2015 to 2019 and 2020 to 2024 periods have the highest at 49.3 and 46.9 inches, respectively.

Panel B: Total Summer Precipitation
Y-axis values range from 6 to 22 inches. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 6.7 to 19.9 inches. Five-year values also show variability and are below the long-term average of 12.9 inches for the 1895 to 1899 period, mostly above average between 1900 and 1959, all below average between 1960 and 1999, and all near or above average since 2000 except for the 2005 to 2009 period. The 1930 to 1934 and 1980 to 1984 periods have the lowest 5-year values at 11.3 and 11.1 inches, respectively, and the 1905 to 1909 period has the highest at 16.1 inches.

Figure 6: Observed annual number of 2-inch extreme precipitation events (days with precipitation of 2 inches or more) for Virginia from 1900 to 2024. Dots show annual values. Bars show averages over 5-year periods. The horizontal black line shows the long-term (entire period) average of 1.6 events, indicating that a typical reporting station experiences one to two events per year. The number of 2-inch extreme precipitation events has generally been near or above average since the 1990s. Adapted from Runkle et al. 2022. Data: GHCN-Daily.

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Graph of the observed number of 2-inch extreme precipitation events for Virginia from 1900 to 2024 as described in the caption.

Y-axis values range from 0 to 5 events. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0.2 to 4.1 events. Five-year values also show variability and are mostly near or below the long-term average of 1.6 events between 1900 and 1989 but are all near or above average since 1990. The 1915 to 1919 and 1980 to 1984 periods have the lowest 5-year values at 1.2 and 1.1 events, respectively, and the 2015 to 2019 and 2020 to 2024 periods have the highest at 2.3 and 2.5 events, respectively.

Weather hazards in the state include severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, winter storms, tropical storms, hurricanes, droughts, and heat waves. Virginia was affected by 116 of the 403 billion-dollar disaster events that occurred in the US between 1980 and 2024. Parts of the state experienced periods of severe drought (as defined by the US Drought Monitor) in 2023 and 2024. On September 18, Hurricane Isabel tore across southeastern and central Virginia after making landfall in North Carolina as a Category 2 Hurricane. Isabel produced storm surges of 4–6 feet along the Virginia coast, rain totals of 4–7 inches in east-central Virginia and 8–12 inches in the Shenandoah Valley, and one tornado in Norfolk; there were 10 storm-related deaths. One of the costliest events to ever affect the state was Superstorm Sandy (a post-tropical storm) in 2012, which caused severe coastal flooding from storm surges. Sandy was one of the most extreme and destructive events to affect the northeastern United States and the fifth-costliest US disaster on record. In June, the 2012 North American derecho (a widespread, long-lived straight-line windstorm associated with a series of severe thunderstorms) brought winds of up to 70 mph and caused power outages for more than 1 million residents in Virginia, the District of Columbia, and Maryland. The storm coincided with a period of extreme heat that lingered for days following the storm, creating dangerous conditions for those who lost power. During April 2023, an EF3 tornado destroyed more than 100 structures in Virginia Beach. On average, a tropical cyclone or its remnants impact Virginia about once a year. In early August 2020, Hurricane Isaias brought winds above 50 mph and spun off seven tornadoes (including two EF2s), causing extensive damage. Hurricane Helene struck southwestern Virginia in late September 2024, bringing winds of more than 40 mph (with gusts over 60 mph), three tornadoes (including an EF2), and rainfall totals above 10 inches. The storm caused widespread wind damage and catastrophic flooding and resulted in two fatalities.

Under the intermediate and higher emissions pathways, historically unprecedented warming is projected during this century (Figure 1). Even under the lower emissions pathway, most projections show annual average temperatures exceeding historical levels by the middle of the century. However, projections for all three pathways show a large range of potential temperature increases, and some projections for the lower pathway are comparable to recent observed values. Future heat waves are projected to be more intense. This will pose human health risks, particularly in Virginia's metropolitan areas. Heat absorbed and emitted by buildings and pavement, as well as other aspects of urban environments, makes cities even warmer than the surrounding countryside, a phenomenon known as the urban heat island effect. Cold waves are projected to become less intense.

Under the intermediate emissions pathway, statistically significant increases in total annual precipitation are projected by midcentury for northeastern and northwestern Virginia but are less certain elsewhere (Figure 7). There is also uncertainty in the projections for seasonal precipitation. The number and intensity of extreme precipitation events are projected to increase, continuing recent trends.

Figure 7: Projected changes in total annual precipitation (%) for the middle of the 21st century (2041–2070) compared to the 1991–2020 average under the intermediate emissions pathway (SSP2-4.5 scenario). For areas with hatching, a majority of models project statistically significant changes and agree on the direction of change. For areas without hatching, less than half of models project statistically significant changes. Statistically significant increases of 5–10% in total annual precipitation are projected for northeastern and northwestern Virginia by midcentury. Annual precipitation is also projected to increase throughout the rest of the state; however, these changes are not statistically significant. Adapted from Runkle et al. 2022. Data: CMIP6.

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Map of the contiguous United States showing the projected changes in total annual precipitation by the middle of this century as described in the caption. The state of Virginia is outlined in black.

Legend values range from less than negative 10 to greater than positive 15 percent. Note: unless otherwise specified, projected values are not statistically significant.

Virginia
The majority of Virginia is projected to see increases in total annual precipitation of 5 to 10 percent, with the southwestern region and the southeastern corner expected to see increases of up to 5 percent.

Contiguous US
Projected increases in total annual precipitation are as follows: up to 5 percent for most of the Southeast, as well as the central Midwest, central Great Plains, central West, and Northwest; and 5 to 10 percent for all of the Northeast, as well as portions of the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, northern Midwest, northern Great Plains, and Pacific Northwest, with statistically significant increases in the 5 to 10 percent range for the Northeast, northeastern Midwest, and portions of the northern Great Plains and Pacific Northwest.

Projected decreases of up to 5 percent are expected across most of Texas, New Mexico, and Arizona, as well as southern California.

Periodic droughts, a natural part of Virginia's climate, are projected to be more intense, because higher temperatures will increase evaporation rates and soil moisture loss during dry spells, exacerbating drought conditions.

Virginia is at considerable risk from sea level rise due to its low coastal elevation and extensive shoreline, a problem exacerbated by land subsidence (sinking) along the state's coast. On average, the state experienced 10 inches of sea level rise between 1970 and 2020—compared to 6 inches for the contiguous US as a whole—and projections under the Intermediate sea level scenario show additional increases of about 12 inches by 2050 and 1.8 feet by 2070 (Figure 8). Across the five scenarios shown in Figure 8, the projected increases from 2020 to 2070 range from about 1 to 3.5 feet. Rising sea levels pose a threat to the state's ecosystems, coastal communities, and infrastructure. Of particular concern are the state's many military installations, including Naval Station Norfolk, the world's largest naval facility.

Figure 8: Observed and projected sea level changes for (a) the contiguous US and (b) Virginia from 1970 to 2070, relative to the year 2000. Observed changes are shown for tide gauge data (1970–2024; black line) and satellite altimetry data (1992–2024; light orange line). Projected changes from 2020 to 2070 are shown for five scenarios from the Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flood Hazard Scenarios and Tools Interagency Task Force (Low, light blue; Intermediate-Low, medium blue; Intermediate, dark blue; Intermediate-High, yellow; and High, dark orange). Projections are 19-year averages centered on the years 2020, 2030, 2040, and so on. Solid lines represent median scenario values, while shading represents likely ranges for each scenario. Sea levels along the Virginia coast are rising at a rate considerably higher than that of the contiguous United States as a whole, having increased on average by about 10 inches from 1970 to 2020, with an additional 1–3.5 feet projected by 2070 (note that satellite observations do not account for the effects of local land subsidence, which are reflected in tide gauge observations). By comparison, sea levels for the contiguous US rose 6 inches from 1970 to 2020, with a further increase of about 0.5–3.5 feet projected by 2070. (a) Adapted from Sweet et al. 2022. (b) Source: CISESS NC. Data: Mean Sea Level Dataset for Sweet et al. 2022.

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Two time series of observed and projected relative sea level change for (a) the contiguous US and (b) Virginia from 1970 to 2070 as described in the caption.

Y-axis values range from negative 1 to positive 5 feet for both graphs. Legends in both graphs denote sources of historical data and scenarios for projections. Line colors for historical data are black for tide gauge data and orange for satellite data. Line and shading colors for projections based on five scenarios are as follows: light blue, Low; medium blue, Intermediate-Low; dark blue, Intermediate; yellow, Intermediate-High; and dark orange, High.

Panel A: Contiguous US
Tide gauge and satellite data generally show increases but with year-to-year variability. Projected data show increases under all scenarios. Tide gauge values range from a minimum of negative 0.3 feet in 1976 to a maximum of positive 0.4 feet in 2023. Satellite values range from a minimum of 0.0 feet in 1994 to a maximum of 0.4 feet in 2023. Projected sea level median values (lines) for the Low scenario range from 0.3 feet in 2020 to 1.1 feet in 2070, compared to 0.4 feet in 2020 to 3.1 feet in 2070 for the High scenario. Likely ranges (shading) become wider over the period shown. The ranges of likely values in 2070 for each of the five scenarios are as follows: Low scenario, from 0.9 to 1.4 feet; Intermediate-Low, 1.2 to 1.7 feet; Intermediate, 1.5 to 2.2 feet; Intermediate-High, 1.8 to 3.1 feet; and High, 2.4 to 3.8 feet.

Panel B: Virginia
All historical and future scenario lines show increases higher than those in the contiguous US graph. Tide gauge values range from a minimum of negative 0.6 feet in 1977 to a maximum of positive 0.7 feet in 2024. Satellite values range from a minimum of 0.0 feet in 1996 to a maximum of 0.7 feet in 2023. Projected sea level median values (lines) for the Low scenario range from 0.4 feet in 2020 to 1.6 feet in 2070, compared to 0.5 feet in 2020 to 3.5 feet in 2070 for the High scenario. Likely ranges (shading) become wider over the period shown. The ranges of likely values in 2070 for each of the five scenarios are as follows: Low scenario, from 1.3 to 2.0 feet; Intermediate-Low, 1.6 to 2.3 feet; Intermediate, 1.9 to 2.7 feet; Intermediate-High, 2.2 to 3.6 feet; and High, 2.7 to 4.2 feet.

Sea level rise has caused an increase in high-tide floods associated with nuisance-level impacts, which are occurring more frequently, even on sunny days. High-tide flooding occurs when one or more factors—sea level rise, winds, changes in ocean currents, full or new moons—push water levels above the normal high-tide mark. These events can damage infrastructure, cause road closures, and overwhelm storm drains. High-tide flooding has increased in all US coastal areas, with more rapid increases along the East and Gulf Coasts, and is likely to occur more frequently in Virginia as global and local sea levels continue to rise. The number of high-tide flood days has increased at Sewells Point in Norfolk, with the greatest number occurring in 2023. Under both the Intermediate-Low and Intermediate scenarios, high-tide floods are projected to occur much more frequently in future years (Figure 9).

Figure 9: Observed and projected number of high-tide flood days per year at Sewells Point, Virginia. Observed changes (orange bars; top and bottom) are shown for 1928–2024. Projected changes (top) under the Intermediate-Low (medium blue bars) and Intermediate (dark blue bars) sea level scenarios (see Figure 8) are shown for 2020–2100. Projections are 19-year averages centered on the years 2020, 2030, 2040, and so on. The horizontal dashed gray line indicates 365 days—that is, high-tide flooding occurring every day of the year. Sea level rise has caused an increase in high-tide floods at Sewells Point, with the greatest number (23) occurring in 2023. Under the Intermediate-Low scenario, high-tide flooding is projected to occur around 100 days each year by midcentury and around 350 days per year by the end of the century. Under the Intermediate scenario, high-tide flooding is projected to occur more than 120 days each year by midcentury and every day of the year by the end of the century. Adapted from Runkle et al. 2022. Data: NOAA Water Levels for Coastal, Estuaries and Great Lakes regions.

Image Description

Description

Graph of the observed and projected annual number of high-tide flood days at Sewells Point, Virginia, from 1928 to 2100 (top), including a magnified view of the observed data for the period 1928 to 2024 (bottom), as described in the caption.

A legend shows annual observations (orange bars) and projected 19-year averages (two-colored bars) for the Intermediate-Low (medium blue) and Intermediate (dark blue) sea level scenarios.

Bottom
Y-axis labels for the magnified view range from 0 to 20 days per year. Following the first recorded event in 1928, high-tide flooding occurred somewhat regularly until the mid 1980s, with gaps of 1 to 3 years between events and annual values mostly below 4 days. Starting in 1985, high-tide flood days occurred every year, with a record-high of 23 days in 2023.

Top
Y-axis labels range from 0 to 350 days, with a horizontal dashed gray line indicating 365 days. Sewells Point is projected to experience 100 to 125 high-tide flood days per year by 2050 under the Intermediate-Low and Intermediate scenarios, respectively, and 350 to 365 days by 2100.

Details on observations and projections are available on the Technical Details and Additional Information page.
The compiled version of the 2022 State Climate Summaries, including the complete author list and recommended citations, is available on the Downloads page.

Authors: Laura E. Stevens, North Carolina State University; James Anheuser, North Carolina State University; Mark R. Essig, North Carolina State University; April D. Lamb, North Carolina State University; Thomas K. Maycock, North Carolina State University; Andrea L. McCarrick, North Carolina State University; Alexis Visovatti, North Carolina State University
Contributors: Jessicca Allen, Visual Communications Lead and PDF Layout, North Carolina State University; Jeff Bliss, Data Explorer Tool Development, National Environmental Mapping and Applications Center; Amy Camper, Visual Communications and PDF Layout, Innovative Consulting & Management Services, LLC; Ryan Cox, Web Application Engineer, North Carolina State University; Jacquelyn Crossman, Citation Management, NOAA NCEI Librarian, MPF-ZAI; Greg Dobson, GIS and Figure Development, National Environmental Mapping and Applications Center; David R. Easterling, Advisor, Future Climate, LLC, and Earth Knowledge, Inc.; Aaron Goodman, Web Developer, North Carolina State University; Katharine M. Johnson, Web Team Lead and GIS Analyst, North Carolina State University; Kenneth E. Kunkel, Advisor and Principal Research Scholar, North Carolina State University; Ciara R. Lemery, Figure and Production Coordination, Independent Contractor; Angel Li, Web Developer, North Carolina State University; Dave Michelson, Data Explorer Tool Development, National Environmental Mapping and Applications Center; Ronald Opio, Data Analysis and Figure Development, North Carolina State University; Xia Sun, Data Analysis and Figure Development, North Carolina State University; Xiangdong Zhang, Advisor, North Carolina State University
Acknowledgements: Christopher Fuhrmann, Southeast Region Expert Review, Southeast Regional Climate Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill; Tamara Houston, Regional Climate Center Review Coordination, NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information; Brittney W. Parker, Sea Level Rise Expert Review, NOAA National Ocean Service; William Sweet, Sea Level Rise Expert Review, NOAA National Ocean Service
Recommended Citation: Stevens, L.E., J. Anheuser, M.R. Essig, A.D. Lamb, T.K. Maycock, A.L. McCarrick, and A. Visovatti, 2026: 2025 State Climate Summaries for the United States: Virginia. [Update to Runkle et al., 2022: Virginia State Climate Summary 2022.] North Carolina Institute for Climate Studies Report NCICS-001-VA. North Carolina State University, Asheville, NC. https://doi.org/10.52750/561488

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Virginia Places, n.d.: Climate of Virginia, accessed September 12, 2025. http://www.virginiaplaces.org/climate/

2025 State Climate Summaries

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