Vermont's northerly latitude and geographic location on the eastern edge of North America expose it to the moderating and moistening influence of the Atlantic Ocean and the effects of hot and cold air masses from the interior of the continent. Its climate is characterized by cold, snowy winters and pleasantly warm summers. The state's proximity to the jet stream gives it highly variable weather patterns, wide-ranging daily and annual temperatures, and generally abundant precipitation throughout the year. Vermont's varied elevation and terrain and its proximity to Lake Champlain and the Atlantic Ocean all contribute to variations in climate across the state. Weather in the western part of the state is influenced by Lake Champlain, resulting in milder winter temperatures and a longer growing season than more mountainous regions to the east. Southeastern Vermont, with its lower elevation and landlocked location, tends to be warmer. Summer high temperatures range from less than 70°F in high-elevation regions of the Green Mountains to more than 80°F in the southeast and along Lake Champlain (1991–2020 averages). Winter low temperatures range from less than 5°F in northeastern Vermont to more than 15°F in western and southeastern parts of the state. Annual precipitation in Vermont ranges from less than 40 inches in the western part of the state to more than 60 inches in parts of the Green Mountains. Snowfall is abundant across most of the state, with some high-elevation locations receiving annual totals of more than 150 inches.
Time series of observed and projected temperature change (in degrees Fahrenheit) for Vermont from 1900 to 2100 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from negative 4 to positive 20 degrees. Observed annual temperatures from 1900 to 2024 show variability and range from negative 3.5 to positive 5.1 degrees. By the end of the century, projected increases in temperature range from 2.7 to 9.7 degrees under the lower emissions pathway, from 4.9 to 11.7 degrees under the intermediate pathway, and from 9.8 to 19.4 degrees under the higher pathway.
Annual average temperatures in Vermont have increased more than 3°F since the beginning of the 20th century (Figure 1). Winter and summer temperatures have increased considerably since the late 1970s and late 1980s, respectively (Figures 2a and 2b). There is no overall trend in the number of hot days; however, the 5-year average for the 2020–2024 period was the highest on record (Figure 3a). The number of warm nights, which are rare in Vermont, has mostly been near or above average since the early 2000s, with 2020–2024 having the highest 5-year average on record (Figure 3b). The winter warming trend is reflected in a generally below-average number of very cold nights since the late 1990s (Figure 4). Higher spring and fall temperatures have resulted in corresponding increases in the length of the freeze-free season, with earlier dates generally occurring for the last spring freeze of the year and later dates for the first fall freeze. The freeze-free season is now three weeks longer than in 1960 and is increasing at a rate of 9 days per decade since 1991. At the same time, the state continues to experience so-called backward, or false, springs, which are characterized by the normal progression of warming temperatures in the late winter and early spring followed by snow and freezing rain, cold temperatures, and winds coming from the northwest in April–June.
Two graphs of the observed (a) winter and (b) summer average temperatures for Vermont from (a) 1895–96 to 2023–24 and (b) 1895 to 2024, respectively, as described in the caption.
Panel A: Winter Average Temperature
Y-axis values range from 4 to 32 degrees Fahrenheit. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 8.4 to 27.1 degrees. Five-year values also show variability and are all below the long-term average of 18.0 degrees between 1895 and 1979 except for the 1930 to 1934 and 1950 to 1954 periods, but they are all near or above average since 1980. The 1900 to 1904 period has the lowest 5-year value at 15.5 degrees, and the 2020 to 2024 period has the highest at 23.7 degrees.
Panel B: Summer Average Temperature
Y-axis values range from 58 to 68 degrees Fahrenheit. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 59.4 to 67.4 degrees. Five-year values also show variability and are all below the long-term average of 63.8 degrees between 1895 and 1934, mostly near or above average between 1935 and 1959, and mostly near or below average between 1960 and 1989. Since 1990 all 5-year values are above average. The 1900 to 1904 and 1925 to 1929 periods have the lowest 5-year values at 62.3 and 62.2 degrees, respectively, and the 2020 to 2024 period has the highest at 66.1 degrees.
Two sets of paired graphs of the observed annual number of (a) hot days and (b) warm nights for Vermont (top) from 1950 to 2024 and for the contiguous United States (bottom) from 1900 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Annual and 5-year values show variability in all graphs.
Panel A: Hot Days
Vermont
Y-axis values range from 0 to 32 days. Annual values range from 2.9 to 27.6 days. Five-year values are mostly near or below the long-term average of 13.1 days across the entire period. Exceptions include the 1955 to 1959, 1975 to 1979, and 2020 to 2024 periods, which have the highest 5-year values at 15.0, 17.3, and 19.0 days, respectively. The 1960 to 1964 period has the lowest 5-year value at 10.6 days.
Contiguous US
Y-axis values range from 40 to 90 days. Annual values range from 41.9 to 82.4 days. Five-year values are below 60 days between 1900 and 1909, all above 60 days between 1910 and 1964, mostly near or below 60 days between 1965 and 2009, and all above 60 days since 2010. The 1990 to 1994 period has the lowest 5-year value at 54.7 days, and the 1930 to 1934 and 1935 to 1939 periods have the highest at 73.5 and 73.8 days, respectively.
Panel B: Warm Nights
Vermont
Y-axis values range from 0 to 5 nights. Annual values range from 0 to 4.6 nights. Five-year values are all below the long-term average of 1.1 nights between 1950 and 1974 except for the 1955 to 1959 period, all near or above average between 1975 and 1989, and all below average between 1990 and 2004. All 5-year values since 2005 are near or above average. The 1960 to 1964 period has the lowest 5-year value at 0.3 nights, and the 2020 to 2024 period has the highest at 2.6 nights.
Contiguous US
Y-axis values range from 4 to 28 nights. Annual values range from 7.5 to 26.2 nights. Five-year values are mostly near or below 16 nights between 1900 and 1994. Exceptions include the 1930 to 1934 and 1935 to 1939 periods with more than 18 nights. An upward trend is evident since the 1970 to 1974 period, which has the lowest 5-year value at 12.1 nights. All 5-year values since 1995 are above 18 nights. The 2010 to 2014 period has the highest 5-year value at 20.4 nights.
Paired graphs of the observed annual number of very cold nights for Vermont (top) from 1950 to 2024 and the contiguous United States (bottom) from 1900 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Annual and 5-year values show variability in both graphs.
Vermont
Y-axis values range from 4 to 44 nights. Annual values range from 5.8 to 40.9 nights. Five-year values are below the long-term average of 22.6 nights for the 1950 to 1954 period but are all near or above average between 1955 and 1994. All 5-year values since 1995 are near or below average except for the 2000 to 2004 period. The 2020 to 2024 period has the lowest 5-year value at 13.4 nights, and the 1960 to 1964 period has the highest at 27.7 nights.
Contiguous US
Y-axis values range from 0 to 24 nights. Annual values range from 3.9 to 20 nights. Five-year values are all near or above 10 nights between 1900 and 1989 but are all below 10 nights since 1990 except for the 2010 to 2014 period. The 2020 to 2024 period has the lowest 5-year value at 7.6 nights, and the 1915 to 1919 and 1975 to 1979 periods have the highest at 15.1 and 15.6 nights, respectively.
Statewide total annual precipitation for Vermont has ranged from a low of 32.6 inches in 1908 to a high of 58.2 inches in 2011 (Figure 5). Annual precipitation has increased nearly 6 inches since the 1960s and has generally been near or above the long-term average since the 1970s. The number of 2-inch extreme precipitation events has generally been near or above the long-term average since the late 1990s (Figure 6).
Graph of the observed total annual precipitation for Vermont from 1895 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from 28 to 60 inches. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 32.6 to 58.2 inches. Five-year values also show variability and are mostly below the long-term average of 42.7 inches between 1895 and 1969 but are all above average since 1970 except for the 1985 to 1989 period. The 1910 to 1914 and 1960 to 1964 periods have the lowest 5-year values at 37.3 and 37.4 inches, respectively, and the 2005 to 2009 period has the highest at 51.5 inches.
Paired graphs of the observed annual number of 2-inch extreme precipitation events for Vermont (top) from 1950 to 2024 and the contiguous United States (bottom) from 1900 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Annual and 5-year values show variability in both graphs.
Vermont
Y-axis values range from 0.0 to 2.5 events. Annual values range from 0 to 2.1 events. The five-year value for 1950 to 1954 is above the long-term average of 0.7 events. Five-year values between 1955 and 1994 are all below average except for the 1985 to 1989 period, but they are all near or above average since 1995. The 1960 to 1964 and 1965 to 1969 periods have the lowest 5-year values at 0.4 and 0.3 events, respectively, and the 2005 to 2009 and 2010 to 2014 periods have the highest at 1.09 and 1.06 events, respectively.
Contiguous US
Y-axis values range from 1.0 to 3.0 events. Annual values range from 1.1 to 2.5 events. Five-year values are above 1.7 events between 1900 and 1909 but are all near or below 1.7 events between 1910 and 1989. An upward trend is evident since the early 1950s. All 5-year values since 1990 are above 1.7 events. The 1930 to 1934 period has the lowest 5-year value at 1.5 events, and the 2015 to 2019 period has the highest at 2.3 events.
Vermont experiences several types of extreme weather, including prolonged heavy snowstorms, flash floods, river floods (following snowmelt and heavy rains), severe thunderstorms, droughts, tornadoes, and temperature extremes. The most devastating event of recent years occurred in 2023. Over July 9–11, several waves of heavy rainfall dropped 4 to 9 inches of rain across much of the Green Mountains, leading to devastating flooding and two deaths. July rainfall at Montpelier set an all-time monthly record of 12.1 inches. Damage from this event rivaled or even exceeded that caused by Tropical Storm Irene in 2011, one of many flood events caused by tropical cyclones or their remnants. As Irene passed over Vermont, 3 to 7 inches of rain fell in less than 18 hours, causing the worst flooding in southern and eastern Vermont since the Great Vermont Flood of November 1927. The flooding from Irene resulted in an estimated $500 million in damages across the state. Vermont continues to be susceptible to both flooding and droughts occurring in the same year. Two other tropical storm–related flooding events occurred in the summer of 2024, from the remnants of Beryl and Debby. Prolonged drought conditions have been observed frequently throughout the 20th century and into this century. During the extreme hydrological drought (low water supply due to rainfall deficits) of 2020–2021, Vermont set a new record for longest drought duration, experiencing 71 weeks with moderate drought or higher (as defined by the US Drought Monitor). Lake Champlain water levels were below normal, reduced streamflow negatively affected recreation activities, and drought-parched pastures forced farmers to purchase feed for their livestock.
Severe winter storms are common in Vermont's cold winter climate and may include snowstorms, blizzards, and icing events, as well as nor'easters—cold-season coastal storms that can generate a tremendous amount of precipitation (in the form of snow, sleet, or freezing rain), strong winds, coastal flooding, and damage to infrastructure. In addition to ice jams and melting snowpack, winter flooding hazards include freezing rain and frozen ground conditions. During the first week of January 1998, a prolonged storm brought 2 to 5 inches of rain to Vermont. The heavy precipitation added to runoff from melting snowpack, resulting in significant flooding. Across the Champlain Valley and parts of northern Vermont, temperatures were below freezing for much of the storm. This resulted in the Great Ice Storm of 1998, during which heavy ice accumulation of 1 to 2 inches caused agricultural losses (dairy industry) and severe damage to trees (at varying elevations) and utility lines. Total damage from the ice storm across the whole of the northeastern United States was about $2 billion. Vermont also experiences extreme cold. On February 3 and 4, 2023, Arctic air briefly dipped into the state, causing wind chills in Burlington to plummet to more than –40°F.
Under the intermediate and higher emissions pathways, historically unprecedented warming is projected during this century (Figure 1). Even under the lower emissions pathway, most projections show annual average temperatures exceeding historical levels by the middle of the century. However, projections for all three pathways show a large range of potential temperature increases, and some projections for the lower pathway are comparable to recent observed values. The intensity of heat waves is projected to increase, while cold wave intensity is projected to decrease.
Under the intermediate emissions pathway, statistically significant increases are projected across the state in total annual precipitation and winter precipitation (Figure 7) by midcentury. Statistically significant increases are also projected in spring precipitation in the northeastern part of the state. There is uncertainty in projections for summer and fall precipitation. Corresponding increases in temperature are expected to increase the proportion of precipitation that falls as rain rather than snow. In addition, extreme precipitation is projected to increase, potentially increasing the frequency and intensity of floods.
Map of the contiguous United States showing the projected changes in total winter precipitation by the middle of this century as described in the caption. A blowup map of the state of Vermont appears to the right of the contiguous US.
Legend values range from less than negative 10 to greater than positive 15 percent. Note: unless otherwise specified, projected values are not statistically significant.
Vermont
The entire state of Vermont is projected to see statistically significant increases in total winter precipitation of 10 to 15 percent.
Contiguous US
Projected increases in total winter precipitation are as follows: up to 5 percent across a narrow swath running westward from western Georgia to southern California; 5 to 10 percent in the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, southern Midwest, portions of the Great Plains, and most of the West; and 10 to 15 percent in the majority of the Northeast and upper Midwest as well as portions of the northern Great Plains and Intermountain West, with statistically significant increases in the 10 to 15 percent range for the Northeast, the northernmost regions of the upper Midwest, and portions of the northern Great Plains.
Projected decreases are as follows: up to 5 percent for southern regions of the Southwest and northern and central Texas; 5 to 10 percent for southern New Mexico and western Texas; and 5 to 10 percent or greater for southwestern Texas.
Naturally occurring droughts are projected to increase in intensity due to higher temperatures and the associated increase in evaporation rates and soil moisture loss.
SOURCES
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