Washington's location in the heart of the midlatitudes exposes it to frequent storm systems associated with extratropical cyclones. Due to the physical barrier of the Cascade Mountains, the climate differs greatly in the western and eastern parts of the state. The Pacific Ocean provides abundant moisture, with some locations just west of both the Coastal Range and Cascade Mountains experiencing orographic enhancement (the increase of rainfall with elevation on the upwind side of mountain ranges), leading to annual precipitation totals of over 100 inches (1991–2020 averages). The region east of the Cascades receives less precipitation due to the reduced availability of ocean moisture, with many locations in Central Washington receiving less than 10 inches annually.
Temperatures in the western portion of the state are strongly moderated by the ocean year-round, whereas central and eastern regions exhibit a greater annual range in temperature. Summer high temperatures in Western Washington typically range from the mid-60s (°F) along the coast to high 70s in the foothills. Winter low temperatures range from the low to high 30s across the region, with subfreezing temperatures common at high elevations. Central and eastern Washington generally experience maximum summer temperatures of 80° to 90°F and average minimum winter temperatures of less than 30°F throughout the region, with typical lows of less than 20°F in some locations along the eastern slopes of the Cascades.
Time series of observed and projected temperature change (in degrees Fahrenheit) for Washington from 1900 to 2100 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from negative 4 to positive 18 degrees. Observed annual temperatures from 1900 to 2024 show variability and range from negative 2.9 to positive 4.1 degrees. By the end of the century, projected increases in temperature range from 1.2 to 8.1 degrees under the lower emissions pathway, from 4.0 to 10.2 degrees under the intermediate pathway, and from 7.8 to 16.4 degrees under the higher pathway.
Since the beginning of the 20th century, annual average temperatures in Washington have increased about 2°F (Figure 1), and 2015–2024 was the warmest decade on record. The numbers of hot days in Western Washington and very hot days in Eastern Washington have been quite variable but were both generally above average during the 2015–2019 and 2020–2024 periods (Figures 2a and 2b). The overall warming trend is evident in mostly above-average numbers of warm nights in Western Washington and very warm nights in Eastern Washington since the early 1990s (Figures 3a and 3b). Similarly, the numbers of freezing days in Western Washington and very cold nights in Eastern Washington have generally been near or below average since the late 1970s and early 1980s, respectively (Figures 4a and 4b). In late June 2021, the Pacific Northwest experienced an unprecedented heat wave that saw record-high temperatures at many sites and led to at least 140 deaths in Washington, primarily in the Seattle area. On June 29, Hanford recorded a temperature of 120°F, a new state record.
Paired graphs of the observed annual number of (a) hot days for Western Washington and (b) very hot days for Eastern Washington from 1900 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Annual and 5-year values show variability in both graphs.
Panel A: Hot Days for Western Washington
Y-axis values range from 0 to 10 days. Annual values range from 0.1 to 9.1 days. Five-year values are all below the long-term average of 3.7 days between 1900 and 1924 except for the 1905 to 1909 and 1910 to 1914 periods, all above average between 1925 and 1944, and all below average between 1945 and 1984 except for the 1955 to 1959 period. Since 1985, all 5-year values are near or above average except for the 2000 to 2004 and 2010 to 2014 periods. The 1920 to 1924 period has the lowest 5-year value at 1.9 days, and the 1935 to 1939 and 1940 to 1944 periods have the highest at 5.4 and 5.3 days, respectively.
Panel B: Very Hot Days for Eastern Washington
Y-axis values range from 0 to 28 days. Annual values range from 2.4 to 25.3 days. Five-year values are all below the long-term average of 12.5 days between 1900 and 1914, all near or above average between 1915 and 1944, and all near or below average between 1945 and 1994 except for the 1970 to 1974 period. Since 1995, all 5-year values are above average except for the 2010 to 2014 period. The 1900 to 1904 period has the lowest 5-year value at 6.2 days, and the 1970 to 1974 and 2020 to 2024 periods have the highest at 17.3 and 18.5 days, respectively.
Two graphs of the observed annual number of (a) warm nights for Western Washington and (b) very warm nights for Eastern Washington from 1900 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Annual and 5-year values show variability in both graphs.
Panel A: Warm Nights for Western Washington
Y-axis values range from 0 to 12 nights. Annual values range from 0 to 10.7 nights. Five-year values are all below the long-term average of 2.95 nights between 1900 and 1989 except for the 1925 to 1929, 1940 to 1944, and 1955 to 1959 periods. Since 1990, 5-year values are all above average. The 1975 to 1979 period has the lowest 5-year value at 0.7 nights, and the 1995 to 1999 period has the highest at 7.6 nights.
Panel B: Very Warm Nights for Eastern Washington
Y-axis values range from 0 to 20 nights. Annual values range from 0.2 to 16.5 nights. Five-year values are all near or below the long-term average of 3.4 nights between 1900 and 1989 except for the 1905 to 1909 and 1960 to 1964 periods, but they are all above average since 1990. The 1945 to 1949 and 1980 to 1984 periods have the lowest 5-year values at 0.9 and 1.0 nights, respectively, and the 2005 to 2009 and 2020 to 2024 periods have the highest at 7.3 and 9.8 nights, respectively.
Paired graphs of the observed annual number of (a) freezing days for Western Washington and (b) very cold nights for Eastern Washington from 1900 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Annual and 5-year values show variability in both graphs.
Panel A: Freezing Days for Western Washington
Y-axis values range from 0 to 20 days. Annual values range from 0.1 to 16.8 days. Five-year values are below the long-term average of 3.7 days for the 1900 to 1904 period but are mostly near or above average between 1900 and 1974. Since 1975, 5-year values are all near or below average. The 1940 to 1944 and 2000 to 2004 periods have the lowest 5-year values at 1.2 and 0.8 days, respectively, and the 1915 to 1919, 1920 to 1924, and 1950 to 1954 periods have the highest at 5.02, 5.27, and 5.03 days, respectively.
Panel B: Very Cold Nights for Eastern Washington
Y-axis values range from 0 to 24 nights. Annual values range from 0 to 19.4 nights. Five-year values are below the long-term average of 3.7 nights for the 1900 to 1904 period, mostly near or above average between 1905 and 1989, and all below average since 1990. The 2000 to 2004 period has the lowest 5-year value at 0.7 nights, and the 1920 to 1924 period has the highest at 6.3 nights.
Statewide total annual precipitation is highly variable and has ranged from a low of 26.0 inches in 1929 to a high of 55.0 inches in 1996, showing no long-term trend (Figure 5). Unlike many areas of the United States, Eastern and Western Washington have not experienced any clear long-term trends in the number of extreme precipitation events, although the number of 2-inch events in Western Washington have mostly been near or above average since the early 1980s (Figures 6a and 6b).
Graph of the observed total annual precipitation for Washington from 1895 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from 24 to 60 inches. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 26.0 to 55.0 inches. Five-year values also show variability and are above the long-term average of 42.2 inches between 1895 and 1904, all below average between 1905 and 1944 except for the 1930 to 1934 period, mostly above average between 1945 and 1984, and all below average between 1985 and 2009 except for the 1995 to 1999 period. The 2010 to 2014 and 2015 to 2019 periods are above average, and the 2020 to 2024 period is below average. The 1925 to 1929 and 1985 to 1989 periods have the lowest 5-year values at 35.9 and 36.5 inches, respectively, and the 1995 to 1999 period has the highest at 51.0 inches.
Paired graphs of the observed annual number of (a) 2-inch extreme precipitation events for Western Washington and (b) 1-inch extreme precipitation events for Eastern Washington from 1900 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Annual and 5-year values show variability in both graphs.
Panel A: 2-Inch Extreme Precipitation Events for Western Washington
Y-axis values range from 0 to 5 events. Annual values range from 0 to 4.5 events. Five-year values are above the long-term average of 1.7 events for the 1900 to 1904 period, all near or below average between 1905 and 1929, above average between 1930 and 1939, and all below average between 1940 and 1979. Since 1980, all 5-year values are near or above average. The 1940 to 1944 period has the lowest 5-year value at 0.7 events, and the 1995 to 1999 period has the highest at 3.1 events.
Panel B: 1-Inch Extreme Precipitation Events for Eastern Washington
Y-axis values range from 0 to 10 events. Annual values range from 0 to 7.6 events. Five-year values are all near or above the long-term average of 3.8 events between 1900 and 1944 except for the 1925 to 1929 and 1940 to 1944 periods, but they are mostly near or below average since 1950. The 1940 to 1944 and 1985 to 1989 periods have the lowest 5-year values at 3.0 and 3.1 events, respectively, and the 1930 to 1934 and 1945 to 1949 periods have the highest at 4.5 and 4.6 events, respectively.
Most of Washington's precipitation falls during the winter months, and some locations in the Cascades can receive upwards of 400 inches of snowfall annually. Snowpack in the mountains provides an important source of water during the drier summer months. Snowpack is highly variable from year to year. Warmer-than-average winter temperatures led to near-record-low levels at several monitoring sites, such as Fish Lake, in 2005 and record-low levels in 2015 (Figure 7). Higher proportions of winter precipitation falling as rain rather than snow can have negative impacts on critical industries, such as timber and agriculture, which are also vulnerable to extreme temperatures.
Time series of the annual variations in the April 1 snow water equivalent (SWE) at Fish Lake, Washington, from 1943 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from 0 to 70 inches. Annual values show wide year-to-year variability and range from 5 inches in 2015 to 65 inches in 1956. Between 1943 and the mid-1970s, annual values are mostly between 20 and 50 inches, but since the late 1970s, they are mostly between 10 and 40 inches
Washington faces threats from extreme precipitation, which is often associated with atmospheric rivers, a phenomenon in which a narrow band of very moist air is transported from tropical latitudes of the Pacific Ocean to the West Coast. An atmospheric river that struck Washington in early February 1996 brought extremely heavy rain to the windward side of the Cascades. Rainfall combined with rapid snowmelt caused landslides and flooding that killed 1 person, destroyed more than 500 homes, and blocked the major routes across the mountains, including Interstate 90. In November 2021, a series of atmospheric rivers dropped 5–10 inches of rain in northern Washington, causing flooding and landslides that damaged hundreds of structures—including an estimated 75% of homes in Sumas (population 1,600). In early December 2023, atmospheric rivers dropped 10–20 inches of precipitation in the Cascades, causing rapid snowmelt, flooding, and landslides. In November 2024, a bomb cyclone (a storm system that rapidly intensifies) off the Pacific Coast brought 2 to 3 feet of snow and winds of 70 mph, causing lengthy power outages and two deaths from falling trees.
Drought is a frequent challenge in Washington, where water supplies are reliant on snowpack, precipitation, and groundwater. Virtually all of Washington was in drought in 2001, 2015, 2021, and 2022, with the 2015 episode particularly severe across the western part of the state. Drought in the state can have serious impacts on agriculture, municipal water supply, hydropower, recreation, and fisheries, as well as wildfire risk, which is a particular concern during the dry summer months. The 2015 wildfire season was the most destructive in Washington's history, with more than 1 million acres burned. Recent years with destructive wildfire seasons include 2020 (more than 800,000 acres burned) and 2021 (nearly 700,000 acres burned). The largest wildfire in state history was the Carlton Complex Fire in July 2014, which burned over 250,000 acres in north-central Washington, destroyed more than 350 homes, and caused an estimated $98 million in damages.
Drought risk is projected to increase as the climate warms. Rising temperatures are expected to raise the elevation of the snow line (the average lowest elevation at which snow falls) and increase the likelihood that precipitation falls as rain instead of snow. This would reduce water storage in the snowpack, particularly at those lower mountain elevations that are now on the margins of reliable snowpack accumulation. Rainfall is expected to be the dominant form of precipitation across the majority of the state by the end of this century, leading to overall declines in snowpack amounts. Higher spring temperatures are also expected to result in earlier melting of the snowpack, further decreasing water availability during the already-dry summer months as well as increasing the risk of spring flooding due to earlier spring peak flows. Projected increases in heavy rainfall events by midcentury could add to the flood risk. Reductions in summer flow pose important ecological implications and are a particular concern for hydropower and irrigation water supplies.
Under the intermediate and higher emissions pathways, historically unprecedented warming is projected during this century (Figure 1). Even under the lower emissions pathway, most projections show annual average temperatures exceeding historical levels by the middle of the century. However, projections for all three pathways show a large range of potential temperature increases, and some projections for the lower pathway are comparable to recent observed values. With rising temperatures, the intensity of cold waves is projected to decrease, while heat waves are projected to be more intense. Unlike many locations in the United States, Seattle and Washington's other urban areas are rarely exposed to very high temperatures. Future heat waves, particularly an increase in the frequency of warm nights, could stress these communities, which are not well adapted to such events.
Under the intermediate emissions pathway, projected increases in total annual precipitation are statistically significant for portions of eastern and far northern Washington but are less certain elsewhere (Figure 8). There is similar uncertainty in projections for seasonal precipitation, although models generally indicate statewide increases in winter, spring, and fall and decreases in summer. Drier conditions during the summer could increase reliance on diminishing snowmelt for irrigation. Higher temperatures and earlier melting of the snowpack are expected to increase the frequency and severity of wildfires—a situation that would be exacerbated if summer precipitation trends downward in the future.
Map of the contiguous United States showing the projected changes in total annual precipitation by the middle of this century as described in the caption. The state of Washington is outlined in black.
Legend values range from less than negative 10 to greater than positive 15 percent. Note: unless otherwise specified, projected values are not statistically significant.
Washington
Southwestern Washington is projected to see increases in total annual precipitation of up to 5 percent, while the remainder of the state is expected to see increases of 5 to 10 percent, with statistically significant increases in the 5 to 10 percent range in northeastern and south-central Washington and along the northern border with British Columbia.
Contiguous US
Projected increases in total annual precipitation are as follows: up to 5 percent for most of the Southeast, as well as the central Midwest, central Great Plains, central West, and Northwest; and 5 to 10 percent for all of the Northeast, as well as portions of the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, northern Midwest, northern Great Plains, and Pacific Northwest, with statistically significant increases in the 5 to 10 percent range for the Northeast, northeastern Midwest, and portions of the northern Great Plains and Pacific Northwest.
Projected decreases of up to 5 percent are expected across most of Texas, New Mexico, and Arizona, as well as southern California.
Sea level rise is a concern in all coastal areas, but the situation in Washington is complex. On average, the state experienced about 1 inch of sea level rise between 1970 and 2020—compared to 6 inches for the contiguous US as a whole—and projections under the Intermediate sea level scenario show additional increases of about 4 inches by 2050 and 10 inches by 2070 (Figure 9). Across the five scenarios shown in Figure 9, the projected increases from 2020 to 2070 range from about 0 to 2.5 feet. However, due to geological processes, parts of the Washington coast are rising, a phenomenon known as uplift, while others are subsiding (sinking). Rising land offsets sea level rise—offering some protection—while sinking land increases it. In coming decades, however, the rate of sea level rise is projected to exceed the rate of uplift along the entire Washington coast, resulting in an overall increase in sea level for all locations. Rising sea levels pose threats to ecosystems, communities, and infrastructure.
Two time series of observed and projected relative sea level change for (a) the contiguous US and (b) Washington from 1970 to 2070 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from negative 1 to positive 4 feet for both graphs. Legends in both graphs denote sources of historical data and scenarios for projections. Line colors for historical data are black for tide gauge data and orange for satellite data. Line and shading colors for projections based on five scenarios are as follows: light blue, Low; medium blue, Intermediate-Low; dark blue, Intermediate; yellow, Intermediate-High; and dark orange, High.
Panel A: Contiguous US
Tide gauge and satellite data generally show increases but with year-to-year variability. Projected data show increases under all scenarios. Tide gauge values range from a minimum of negative 0.3 feet in 1976 to a maximum of positive 0.4 feet in 2023. Satellite values range from a minimum of 0.0 feet in 1994 to a maximum of 0.4 feet in 2023. Projected sea level median values (lines) for the Low scenario range from 0.3 feet in 2020 to 1.1 feet in 2070, compared to 0.4 feet in 2020 to 3.1 feet in 2070 for the High scenario. Likely ranges (shading) become wider over the period shown. The range of likely values in 2070 for each of the five scenarios are as follows: Low scenario, from 0.9 to 1.4 feet; Intermediate-Low, 1.2 to 1.7 feet; Intermediate, 1.5 to 2.2 feet; Intermediate-High, 1.8 to 3.1 feet; and High, 2.4 to 3.8 feet.
Panel B: Washington
All historical and future scenario lines show increases lower than those in the contiguous US graph. Tide gauge values range from a minimum of negative 0.3 feet in 1985 to a maximum of positive 0.3 feet in 1983. Satellite values range from a minimum of negative 0.1 feet in 1999 to a maximum of positive 0.2 feet in 2015. Projected sea level median values (lines) for the Low scenario range from 0.1 feet in 2020 to 0.3 feet in 2070, compared to 0.1 feet in 2020 to 2.3 feet in 2070 for the High scenario. Likely ranges (shading) become wider over the period shown. The range of likely values in 2070 for each of the five scenarios are as follows: Low scenario, from 0.2 to 0.4 feet; Intermediate-Low, 0.4 to 0.7 feet; Intermediate, 0.7 to 1.3 feet; Intermediate-High, 1.0 to 2.2 feet; and High, 1.6 to 2.9 feet.
Sea level rise has caused an increase in high-tide floods associated with nuisance-level impacts, which are occurring more frequently, even on sunny days. High-tide flooding occurs when one or more factors—sea level rise, winds, changes in ocean currents, full or new moons—push water levels above the normal high-tide mark. These events can damage infrastructure, cause road closures, and overwhelm storm drains. High-tide flooding has increased in all US coastal areas, with more rapid increases along the East and Gulf Coasts, and is likely to occur more frequently in Washington as global and local sea levels continue to rise. The number of high-tide flood days has increased at Seattle, with the greatest number occurring in 1997. Under both the Intermediate-Low and Intermediate scenarios, high-tide floods are projected to occur much more frequently in future years (Figure 10).
Graph of the observed and projected annual number of high-tide flood days at Seattle, Washington, from 1920 to 2100 (top), including a magnified view of the observed data for the period 1920 to 2024 (bottom), as described in the caption.
A legend shows annual observations (orange bars) and projected 19-year averages (two-colored bars) for the Intermediate-Low (medium blue) and Intermediate (dark blue) sea level scenarios.
Bottom
Y-axis labels for the magnified view range from 0 to 10 days per year. Following the first recorded event in 1920, high-tide flooding was sporadic until the early 1950s, with gaps of 6 to 12 years between events and annual values all below 4 days. Between the 1950s and late 2010s, high-tide flood days increased in frequency and number. Starting in 2018, high-tide flood days occurred every year. The record high of 11 days occurred in 1997.
Top
Y-axis labels range from 0 to 350 days, with a horizontal dashed gray line indicating 365 days. Seattle is projected to experience 9 to 10 high-tide flood days per year by 2050 under the Intermediate-Low and Intermediate scenarios, respectively, and 75 to 275 days by 2100.
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