Wisconsin’s location in the interior of North America and the lack of mountains to the north and south expose the state to incursions of bitterly cold air masses from the Arctic in the winter and warm, humid air masses from the Gulf of America (formerly Gulf of Mexico) in the summer, leading to a large range of temperatures across the state. The southern part of the state experiences cold winters and mild to hot summers, while the northern part experiences frigid winters and generally cool summers with brief bouts of excessive heat. Typical summer maximum temperatures range from the mid-70s (°F) in northern parts of the state to the low 80s in the south (1991–2020 averages). Average winter minimum temperatures range from less than 5°F in the northwest to around 20°F in the southeast. The winter season is dominated by dry and cold air, with occasional intrusions of milder air from the west and south. The summer is characterized by frequent warm air masses, either hot and dry continental air masses from the arid west and southwest or warm and moist air from the south. However, periodic intrusions of cooler air from Canada provide breaks from summer heat. The state has borders along Lake Superior to the north and Lake Michigan to the east, and the proximity to the lakes provides a moderating effect on temperatures for locations along the shorelines.
Time series of observed and projected temperature change (in degrees Fahrenheit) for Wisconsin from 1900 to 2100 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from negative 8 to positive 24 degrees. Observed annual temperatures from 1900 to 2024 show variability and range from negative 4.2 to positive 5.4 degrees. By the end of the century, projected increases in temperature range from 2.3 to 10.1 degrees under the lower emissions pathway, from 5.0 to 12.3 degrees under the intermediate pathway, and from 9.9 to 20.3 degrees under the higher pathway.
Since the beginning of the 20th century, annual average temperatures in Wisconsin have increased almost 2.5°F, and temperatures in the 2000s have generally been warmer than in any other historical period (Figure 1). The hottest year was 2024, with a statewide average temperature of 47.6°F, which is 4.9°F above the long-term (1895–2024) average. Like much of the Midwest, this warming has been concentrated in the winter (Figure 2a) and spring. Higher spring temperatures present the threat of frost or freeze damage to early-budding fruit trees. In 2012, for example, a “killer frost” closely followed an abnormally warm March, resulting in significant damage to fruit crops. Summers have not warmed substantially (Figure 2b), a feature characteristic of much of the Midwest. The lack of summer warming is reflected in a generally below-average occurrence of very hot days since the 1950s (Figure 3a) and no overall trend in warm nights (Figure 3b).
Two graphs of the observed (a) winter and (b) summer average temperatures for Wisconsin from 1895–96 to 2023–24 and 1895 to 2024, respectively, as described in the caption.
Panel A: Winter Average Temperature
Y-axis values range from 4 to 32 degrees Fahrenheit. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 6.8 to 28.2 degrees. Five-year values also show variability and are mostly near or below the long-term average of 16.3 degrees between 1895 and 1979 but are all near or above average since 1980. The 1975 to 1979 period has the lowest 5-year value at 13.0 degrees, and the 2000 to 2024 period has the highest at 21.1 degrees.
Panel B: Summer Average Temperature
Y-axis values range from 60 to 72 degrees Fahrenheit. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 61.5 to 70.5 degrees. Five-year values also show variability and are all near or below the long-term average of 66.7 degrees between 1895 and 1929, all near or above average between 1930 and 1949, and mostly below average between 1950 and 1994. Since 1995, 5-year values are all near or above average. The 1925 to 1929 period has the lowest 5-year value at 64.9 degrees, and the 1930 to 1934 period has the highest at 68.6 degrees.
Two graphs of the observed annual number of (a) very hot days and (b) warm nights for Wisconsin from 1900 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Panel A: Very Hot Days
Y-axis values range from 0 to 20 days. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0 to 16.7 days. Five-year values also show variability and are mostly above the long-term average of 2.3 days between 1900 and 1949 but are all below average since 1950 except for the 1985 to 1989 period. The 2015 to 2019 period has the lowest 5-year value at 0.1 days, and the 1930 to 1934 period has the highest at 9.5 days.
Panel B: Warm Nights
Y-axis values range from 0 to 14 nights. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0.1 to 11.6 nights. Five-year values also show variability and are all near or below the long-term average of 2.5 nights between 1900 and 1929, all above average between 1930 and 1949, and all below average between 1950 and 1984 except for the 1955 to 1959 period. Five-year values are mostly above average between 1985 and 2014 but are below average since 2015. The 1905 to 1909 period has the lowest 5-year value at 1.0 nights, and the 1930 to 1934 period has the highest at 5.7 nights.
Very cold days (days with a maximum temperature of 0°F or lower) are relatively infrequent in Wisconsin and show no distinct long-term trend (Figure 4). However, the increase in winter temperatures is reflected in decreases in lake ice cover. Annual maximum ice cover across the Great Lakes as a whole fluctuates from year to year but has shown a decreasing trend since records began in 1973. The 2024 annual maximum ice cover for the Great Lakes combined was the fourth lowest on record at 16%, compared to the 1973–2025 average of 52%. The 2025 maximum ice cover, however, was equal to the long-term average at 52%. Ice-cover duration on Lake Mendota, which borders Madison, has exhibited a consistent downward trend since the late 19th century (Figure 5).
Graph of the observed annual number of very cold days for Wisconsin from 1900 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from 0 to 12 days. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0 to 10 days. Five-year values also show variability and are mostly near or above the long-term average of 1.7 days between 1900 and 1924, mostly below average between 1925 and 1959, and all near or above average between 1960 and 1999. Since 2000, all 5-year values are below average except for the 2015 to 2019 period. The 2000 to 2004 period has the lowest 5-year value at 0.4 days, and the 1910 to 1914 and 1915 to 1919 periods have the highest at 2.7 days each.
Line graph of the annual changes in ice-cover duration for Lake Mendota in Wisconsin from 1855 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from 0 to 175 days. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from a high of 161 days in the 1880–81 winter season to a low of 21 days in the 2001–02 winter season. Annual values are mostly between 100 and 125 days from 1855 to the mid-1880s and mostly between 75 and 125 days from the mid-1880s to the mid-1990s. Since then, annual values are mostly between 50 and 100 days. The trend line moves downward across the period, indicating increasingly shorter ice-duration spans.
Annual precipitation generally varies from about 30 to 40 inches across the state, with most of the state’s precipitation falling during the warmer half of the year (1991–2020 averages). Precipitation also varies widely from year to year. Statewide total annual precipitation has ranged from a low of 20.5 inches in 1910 to a high of 44.6 inches in 2019 (Figure 6). Annual precipitation has generally been near or above average since the 1990s, with four of the five wettest years on record occurring since 2010. Total winter precipitation and total summer precipitation have generally been above average since the late 1990s and early 2010s, respectively, but show no clear long-term trends (Figures 7a and 7b). Snowfall varies from less than 40 inches annually in the south to more than 100 inches along the Gogebic Range (1991–2020 averages). Hurley is one of the snowiest cities in the United States, receiving more than 150 inches of snow each year. This heavy snowfall along the Gogebic Range is partially due to lake-effect snow events (localized, enhanced snowfall caused by cold, dry air moving across warmer lake water) on the south shore of Lake Superior. Warming temperatures have led to increased surface water temperatures and reduced ice cover, creating more moisture availability and often enhancing lake-effect snowfall when Arctic air masses move in over these warmer and more exposed waters. This has led to significant upward trends in annual snowfall totals in the region. Annual snowfall amounts have also risen over the state as a whole since the beginning of the 20th century, increasing by about 1 inch per decade. The frequency of 2-inch extreme precipitation events has increased since the 1960s, with the highest 5-year average recorded for the 2015–2019 period (Figure 8).
Graph of observed total annual precipitation for Wisconsin from 1895 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from 16 to 48 inches. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 20.5 to 44.5 inches. Five-year values also show variability and are mostly near or below the long-term average of 31.8 inches between 1895 and 1964 but are mostly near or above average since 1965. The 1930 to 1934 period has the lowest 5-year value at 27.6 inches, and the 2015 to 2019 period has the highest at 39.4 inches.
Two graphs of the observed total (a) winter and (b) summer precipitation for Wisconsin from 1895–96 to 2023–24 and 1895 to 2024, respectively, as described in the caption.
Panel A: Total Winter Precipitation
Y-axis values range from 1 to 7 inches. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 1.3 to 6.2 inches. Five-year values also show variability and are mostly near or below the long-term average of 3.6 inches between 1895 and 1964, above average between 1965 and 1974, and mostly below average between 1975 and 2004. Since 2005, 5-year values are all above average. The 1955 to 1959 period has the lowest 5-year value at 2.0 inches, and the 2015 to 2019 period has the highest at 4.7 inches.
Panel B: Total Summer Precipitation
Y-axis values range from 4 to 20 inches. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 6.5 to 19.3 inches. Five-year values also show variability and are mostly below the long-term average of 11.8 inches between 1895 and 1939 but show no clear trend between 1940 and 2009. Since 2010, 5-year values are all above average. The 1930 to 1934 period has the lowest 5-year value at 9.1 inches, and the 2015 to 2019 period has the highest at 13.9 inches.
Graph of the observed annual number of 2-inch extreme precipitation events for Wisconsin from 1900 to 2024 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from 0.0 to 3.0 events. Annual values show year-to-year variability and range from 0.1 to 2.7 events. Five-year values also show variability and are mostly below the long-term average of 1.1 events between 1900 and 1979 but are all near or above average since 1980. The 1930 to 1934 period has the lowest 5-year value at 0.7 events, and the 2015 to 2019 period has the highest at 1.6 events.
Many rivers border and run through Wisconsin, and due to both ice jams and heavy precipitation, the state is susceptible to both groundwater flooding and river flooding. Heavy rain and snow during the fall and winter of 2007–08 led to elevated water tables by the summer of 2008. The elevated water tables, combined with increased summer precipitation, caused flooding to persist for six months and resulted in approximately $17 million in agricultural and property damages from groundwater flooding alone. In addition, during June 5–12, 2008, a series of storms brought heavy rain to southern Wisconsin, with multiple stations reporting more than 10 inches. The rain caused severe flooding, totaling more than a billion dollars in damages. Localized flash flooding from heavy rain events is also a concern across the state.
Severe thunderstorms are a threat to the state, particularly during the spring and summer months. A strong derecho (a widespread, long-lived straight-line windstorm associated with a series of severe thunderstorms) during May 30–31, 1998, caused wind gusts of up to 128 mph. More than 250,000 people lost power, and damages were estimated at more than $60 million. Although tornadoes are not as common in Wisconsin as in other midwestern states, they do occasionally occur and can cause loss of life. The state averaged 24 tornadoes annually between 1995 and 2024, with a record 63 in 2005. On August 18, 2005, southern Wisconsin experienced 27 tornadoes, the state’s highest confirmed number of tornadoes in a single day. Among those tornadoes, an F3 tornado traveled about 20 miles into Jefferson County from Dane County, passing through Stoughton with maximum intensity and a width of one-half mile. It destroyed or damaged 240 houses, resulted in property damages of more than $40 million, and killed 1 person and injured 23 more. On April 10, 2011, severe thunderstorms in northeastern Wisconsin caused the largest April outbreak of tornadoes on record for the state; 4 of the 15 tornadoes were classified as strong (EF2 and EF3). The tornadoes impacted areas with relatively few structures, limiting economic damages to slightly more than $10 million. On February 8, 2024, two tornadoes hit southern Wisconsin, the first February tornadoes ever recorded in the state. On September 7, 2021, a large hail event occurred in northeast Wisconsin, with a reported 4.5-inch-diameter hailstone north of Appleton, making it the largest hailstone to fall so late in season since 1950.
Due to the state’s northerly location and proximity to the winter storm track, severe winter storms are a regular occurrence. During February 1–2, 2011, southern Wisconsin experienced blizzard conditions from a powerful storm tracking south of the state. Snow accumulations ranged from 12 to 26 inches, with wind gusts of 45 to 60 mph. One of the most active years for snow in Wisconsin was 2023, which saw several major winter storm events in February, March, and April across different parts of the state. One of Wisconsin’s worst natural disasters was a devastating ice storm in the south-central and southeastern portions of the state during March 4–5, 1976. Ice accumulations of up to 5 inches were reported, downing thousands of power lines and snapping many trees and utility poles. Some rural areas were without power for 10 days.
Changes in seasonal and multiyear precipitation, evaporation, and temperature can affect water levels in the Great Lakes, causing serious environmental and socioeconomic impacts. Extreme high lake levels can damage beaches, erode shorelines, and flood and damage nearshore structures. Low lake levels can affect the supply and quality of water, restrict shipping, and result in the loss of wetlands. Reduced winter ice cover from rising temperatures also leaves shores vulnerable to erosion and flooding.
Water levels in the Great Lakes have fluctuated widely since the early 20th century. For Lake Michigan–Huron (Figure 9), levels were generally high in the early 20th century, early 1950s, early 1970s, mid-1980s, and late 2010s. Levels were lowest in the mid-1920s, mid-1930s, mid-1960s, and, for an extended period, in the early 2000s to mid-2010s—averaging 577.5 feet over 2000–2013. Lake levels rose rapidly after that, reaching a record high of 581.7 feet in 2020 before dropping off to early-1990s levels by 2023.
Time series of annual average water levels for Lake Michigan–Huron from 1918 to 2023 as described in the caption.
Y-axis values range from 576 to 583 feet. Annual values show wide variability and range from a high of nearly 582 feet in 1986 and 2020 to a low of about 576 feet in 1964. Annual values are mostly between 577 and 579 feet from the beginning of the period to the late 1960s but are mostly between 579 and 581 feet from the early 1970s to late 1990s. The 2000s through the early 2010s show consistently low water levels between 577 and 578 feet. Levels rose sharply in the late 2010s to nearly 582 feet in 2020 but then dropped to nearly 579 feet by 2023.
Under the intermediate and higher emissions pathways, historically unprecedented warming is projected during this century (Figure 1). Even under the lower emissions pathway, most projections show annual average temperatures exceeding historical levels by the middle of the century. However, projections for all three pathways show a large range of potential temperature increases, and some projections for the lower pathway are comparable to recent observed values. Extreme heat is a particular concern when high temperatures combine with high humidity to create dangerous heat index values, resulting in risks to human health. Urban areas are especially vulnerable to extreme heat. Heat absorbed and emitted by buildings and pavement, as well as other aspects of urban environments, makes cities even warmer than the surrounding countryside, a phenomenon known as the urban heat island effect. From July 12–15, 1995, a historic heat wave in southern Wisconsin, including Milwaukee, produced high temperatures of 100°–105°F and heat indexes (a measure that combines air temperature and relative humidity) of 120°–128°F, leading to 141 deaths. With rising temperatures, future heat waves are projected to be more intense, and cold waves are projected to be less intense. Winter ice cover on the Great Lakes is projected to decrease.
Under the intermediate emissions pathway, statistically significant increases in total winter precipitation and spring precipitation (Figure 10) are projected by midcentury across northern areas of the state but are less certain elsewhere. There is uncertainty in projections for annual, summer, and fall precipitation. Springtime flooding, in particular, could threaten Wisconsin’s agricultural industry by delaying planting and reducing crop yields. Additionally, the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation is projected to increase, potentially resulting in increased flooding. Snowfall is projected to decline due to higher temperatures.
Map of the contiguous United States showing the projected changes in total spring precipitation by the middle of this century as described in the caption. The state of Wisconsin is outlined in black.
Legend values range from less than negative 10 to greater than positive 15 percent. Note: unless otherwise specified, projected values are not statistically significant.
Wisconsin
Projected increases in total spring precipitation for Wisconsin are as follows: 5 to 10 percent across the southern third of the state and 10 to 15 percent across the remainder, with statistically significant increases in the 10 to 15 percent range projected for the northeastern and northwestern regions.
Contiguous US
Projected increases in total spring precipitation are as follows: up to 5 percent across a narrow strip running westward and curving northwestward from western Georgia into the Pacific Northwest; 5 to 10 percent in the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast, as well as southern areas of the Midwest, central portions of the Great Plains, and portions of the Northwest; and 10 to 15 percent in the northern areas of the Northeast, Midwest, and Great Plains, with statistically significant increases in the 10 to 15 percent range across the northern border of the country stretching from Maine to Montana.
Decreases of up to 10 percent are seen across the southern Great Plains and Southwest, including southern Texas, all of Arizona, and most of New Mexico and California.
Droughts, a natural part of Wisconsin’s climate, are projected to increase in intensity due to higher temperatures and the associated increase in evaporation rates and soil moisture loss, threatening the agriculture industry, affecting water supply, and increasing wildfire risk. Earlier snowmelt may also lead to a reduction in soil moisture during the summer months.
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